Bring Them All Back?

[Q-is-here]

I really want to see what the next series brings.

For example, what if our opponent is OKC and they just overwhelm us with their defense and bodies thrown at us and win the series 4-0 or 4-1? What if Julius, Naz, and others are coughing up the ball all over the place and unable to deal with their swarming defense and off ball movement on offense?

I personally think a sound defeat at the hands of OKC, who isn't full of aging stars and should have a strong core for the foreseeable future, could have a profound impact on our offseason moves. Just like Connelly built a Denver killer when he acquired Rudy Gobert, he may go in a less obvious direction than what we may think as things stand today.

I've mentioned a lot on here the possibility of Jaden being our starting 4. Who is to say we don't try to "out-OKC" OKC? Guys like TJ Shannon and Clark are very similar to the OKC archetype!

Anywho, onto the next series!

[FNG]

Welp, Lip, looks like your original post is back on target -- bring them all back!

As these playoffs have progressed, it's become painfully obvious that Randle will be our top priority to re-sign. His ability to be a playmaker alongside ANT was a missing piece last year in the Mavs series. And his bully-ball is something we don't have anywhere else on the roster. His flaws heading into the season -- lackadaisical defense and black hole offense -- were on full display to start the season. But he has adjusted his game to fit with the Wolves style of play. He has embraced ANT as the alpha dog, and embraced his teammates (something he talked about in his postgame presser, referring to a discussion with his agent while he was injured). Randle has found a home and I have a hard time believing he would want go anywhere else this offseason.

But I don't see a scenario where NAW is brought back. He is eighth man on the totem pole, and there are lots of players chomping at the bit to fill his role.

NAZ is a mystery to me. I am sure both parties want to make it work, but NAZ might look for more opportunity and more money than the Wolves can offer.

I will not be surprised if the Wolves move on from both Minott and Garza. Both have team options, and the Wolves might need those roster spots for some new faces, depending on how the draft goes.

Totally agree they're all coming back except NAW. And I love NAW, but I just don't see how it can work financially. Ju is not a typical NBA player...he's a family man, and seems very happy here. I see him opting out of his contract and signing something long-term at more like $25 million per...that will help us from a cap perspective. Naz then becomes the wild card. Despite his poor game and especially bad defense last night, I think he has made great strides the past two seasons on the defensive end, and he has become an incredibly talented scorer. If he's willing to continue in a 6th man role and the price tag doesn't get too high, I want him back. Maybe any concessions Ju makes on his contract gives us a little more room to pay Naz.

[thedoper]

How many games has Julius been in foul trouble this year? It is crazy with how physical he plays. And how was KAT so obvious with all of his offensive fouls? I ultimately think that Julius is a better fit for our roster, warts and all.

[Q-is-here]

How many games has Julius been in foul trouble this year? It is crazy with how physical he plays. And how was KAT so obvious with all of his offensive fouls? I ultimately think that Julius is a better fit for our roster, warts and all.

He's just got a much more solid core and base, thus the stray voltage and involuntary flails aren't an issue.

[Monster]

How many games has Julius been in foul trouble this year? It is crazy with how physical he plays. And how was KAT so obvious with all of his offensive fouls? I ultimately think that Julius is a better fit for our roster, warts and all.

He's just got a much more solid core and base, thus the stray voltage and involuntary flails aren't an issue.

He is also a better ball handler than Towns and even though he has his own turnover issues he is more of a playmaker than Towns was with the ball. He is also simply more athletic than Towns. Towns is longer but Randle has a little more juice to him than Towns. Towns is a very good player but in some ways it feels like he never completely figured out how to play to his strengths. Randle hasn't either but his strengths have been on full display against the match ups so far in the playoffs. Like you have mentioned today Q we don't know what that will look like in the next series.

Randle in this playoffs has been able to punish smaller defenders in a way Towns hasn't been able to do which seems a little weird based on Towns high level post game earlier in his career. Meanwhile what Towns is supposed to be good at 3 point shooting hasn't been as big of a factor in terms of overall numbers as you would expect. He is taking less than 4 a game and shooting less than 37% which is far from bad but below Towns regular season standards. Meanwhile Randle is taking more 3's than Towns and has made 5 more 3's this playoffs despite playing one less game. That's kinda nuts. Teams aren't gonna do everything they can to keep Randle from taking a 3 but they probably aren't gonna want him to be firing them up uncontested at this point.

This post isn't meant to knock Towns. His role on the Knicks is very different from what Randle has on the Wolves. Towns hasn't gone bonkers in the playoffs but it looks like to me he has played well. Both guys have had success and filled some sort of role each team has needed. Let's see what the next playoff series brings for each of them.

[60WinTim]

So here is an interesting observation that's kind of snuck up on us this season. After the KAT trade, most of us viewed this season as being "ANT 1.5", on our way to "ANT 2.0" once Randle was flipped for something and Conley was replaced. But take a look at what's happened leading up to and in the playoffs:

Randle has elevated to a clear 1B to ANT, pretty well cementing his spot as the ANT 2.0 PF. Jaden has left no doubt that he is the ANT 2.0 SF. Rudy's impact on defense and screening for ANT, plus his 3-year contract keeps him as the ANT 2.0 C. And while Conley may start at PG, it's the DDV/ANT backcourt that is dominating the minutes here in the playoffs.

ANT 2.0 has arrived, and is having pretty good success in its first iteration. And it doesn't even feel like we have played our best ball, yet. ANT has grown as a decision maker, but has had a number of pedestrian shooting nights. Jaden has taken a leap. Rudy should have an even bigger impact in the next series as we move past the small-ball teams. And DDV looks to be coming out of his shooting slump.

ANT 2.0 has arrived. Looking forward to how far it can go in it's first WCF run!

[Q-is-here]

So here is an interesting observation that's kind of snuck up on us this season. After the KAT trade, most of us viewed this season as being "ANT 1.5", on our way to "ANT 2.0" once Randle was flipped for something and Conley was replaced. But take a look at what's happened leading up to and in the playoffs:

Randle has elevated to a clear 1B to ANT, pretty well cementing his spot as the ANT 2.0 PF. Jaden has left no doubt that he is the ANT 2.0 SF. Rudy's impact on defense and screening for ANT, plus his 3-year contract keeps him as the ANT 2.0 C. And while Conley may start at PG, it's the DDV/ANT backcourt that is dominating the minutes here in the playoffs.

ANT 2.0 has arrived, and is having pretty good success in its first iteration. And it doesn't even feel like we have played our best ball, yet. ANT has grown as a decision maker, but has had a number of pedestrian shooting nights. Jaden has taken a leap. Rudy should have an even bigger impact in the next series as we move past the small-ball teams. And DDV looks to be coming out of his shooting slump.

ANT 2.0 has arrived. Looking forward to how far it can go in it's first WCF run!

Yeah, I don't think we all appreciate just how hard it is to make it to two Western Conference Finals in a row. One could argue that Ant 2.0 began in earnest with the Rudy trade, with Ant 1.0 being his first two seasons. Yes, that first season of 2.0 was a bit rocky, but we've been really good the last two seasons.

That being said and the reason why I think this whole discussion is premature is that things can change fast in the NBA.

Take the Celtics. Two seasons ago ('22-23) they lost in the Conference Finals. One season later ('23-24) they win the title. If you compare a list of their top 8 playoff rotation from each of those post-seasons, only four names would be the same. Holiday replaced Smart. Pritchard replaced Brogdon. Porzingis/Kornet (Porzy got hurt) replaced Robert Williams. Hauser replaced Grant Williams.

Same thing with Milwaukee between their Eastern Conference Finals loss in '18-19 and Finals win in '20-21. Only four of the top eight were still there.

So yes, I think it's very reasonable to assume that Ant and Jaden will still be around next season and I'm sure some others from our current core will be too. But as for Naz, Randle, Rudy, Conley, NAW, and pretty much the rest of the roster....no guarantees.

[Lipoli390]

So here is an interesting observation that's kind of snuck up on us this season. After the KAT trade, most of us viewed this season as being "ANT 1.5", on our way to "ANT 2.0" once Randle was flipped for something and Conley was replaced. But take a look at what's happened leading up to and in the playoffs:

Randle has elevated to a clear 1B to ANT, pretty well cementing his spot as the ANT 2.0 PF. Jaden has left no doubt that he is the ANT 2.0 SF. Rudy's impact on defense and screening for ANT, plus his 3-year contract keeps him as the ANT 2.0 C. And while Conley may start at PG, it's the DDV/ANT backcourt that is dominating the minutes here in the playoffs.

ANT 2.0 has arrived, and is having pretty good success in its first iteration. And it doesn't even feel like we have played our best ball, yet. ANT has grown as a decision maker, but has had a number of pedestrian shooting nights. Jaden has taken a leap. Rudy should have an even bigger impact in the next series as we move past the small-ball teams. And DDV looks to be coming out of his shooting slump.

ANT 2.0 has arrived. Looking forward to how far it can go in it's first WCF run!

Yeah, I don't think we all appreciate just how hard it is to make it to two Western Conference Finals in a row. One could argue that Ant 2.0 began in earnest with the Rudy trade, with Ant 1.0 being his first two seasons. Yes, that first season of 2.0 was a bit rocky, but we've been really good the last two seasons.

That being said and the reason why I think this whole discussion is premature is that things can change fast in the NBA.

Take the Celtics. Two seasons ago ('22-23) they lost in the Conference Finals. One season later ('23-24) they win the title. If you compare a list of their top 8 playoff rotation from each of those post-seasons, only four names would be the same. Holiday replaced Smart. Pritchard replaced Brogdon. Porzingis/Kornet (Porzy got hurt) replaced Robert Williams. Hauser replaced Grant Williams.

Same thing with Milwaukee between their Eastern Conference Finals loss in '18-19 and Finals win in '20-21. Only four of the top eight were still there.

So yes, I think it's very reasonable to assume that Ant and Jaden will still be around next season and I'm sure some others from our current core will be too. But as for Naz, Randle, Rudy, Conley, NAW, and pretty much the rest of the roster....no guarantees.

I agree that the only current players we can be certain will remain with the team next season are Ant and Jaden. As great as Randle has been in the playoffs so far and in the month leading up to the playoffs, I still see Ant and Jaden as the only two foundational pieces. That said, I’d be surprised if the Wolves don’t retain Randle and Rudy next season. And I’d also be surprised if NAW returns. How many players and who we retain next season will depend a lot on what happens in this next series. If we get knocked out pretty easily in 5 games like last season, I would expect more roster changes than if we make it to the NBA finals or even lose in 7 close games playing really well.

I looked at the payroll situation again and it seems clear that the Wolves can realistically bring back everyone on the current roster except NAW and Ingles and still get just under the projected 2nd apron threshold of $207.9 million. I’m assuming neither Julius nor Naz would exercise their respective $15 million and $30 million options. Therefore, keeping both would require the Wolves to sign both to multi-year contracts. One option would be a multi year deal for Naz that starts at $24 million and a multi-year deal for Julius that starts at $28 million. By my calculation, we could sign them at those starting salaries, sign both our draft picks and keep all our other roster players except Ingles and NAW, while ending up about $100K under the 2nd apron threshold. So it would be close but doable.

I’m convinced Julius would sign a three or four year deal starting at that amount. He apparently loves Minneapolis and would like the security and stability of a long-term guaranteed deal with a winning team that’s likely to be a high-level contender for many years with Ant and Jaden. I’m not as sure about Naz. He might bristle at remaining a bench player when there are likely other teams that will pay him at least as much or more as a starter. But Naz likes it here. He’s beloved by the fans and is close friends with many of his teammates. So we’ll see.

[60WinTim]

Lip, I think your off on your contract estimates for Randle and NAZ...

For Randle, he could just opt in and get his 31 mil next year, and worry about a new contract next offseason. I would expect a contract extension that starts at 31 mil and increases each year thereafter.

I just don't know why you insist on giving NAZ more money than he is worth, or the Wolves can afford to give. He really has not had a great year. Is he worth more than Jaden McDaniels?!? I view his value in line with Malik Monk, who was neck and neck with NAZ for 6th man of year last season until Monk went down with a late season injury. Monk signed a contract extension starting at 17.5 mil last year. NAZ's player option is for 15 mil, so my expectation is he signs an extension in the 15 to 18 mil range. And I will not be surprised at all if NAZ decides to move on to greener pastures where he has an opportunity to start and make more money.

If NAZ does move on, we will have money to sign an interim big in free agency as we let our knew big(s) from the draft develop.

[Phenom]

I saw Nori is a finalist (out of 8) for the Suns job. Seems like one of these days he will get plucked.