Starting PG Trade Options

[rapsuperstar31]

Short term, but 40 year old Chris Paul should be a free agent this summer. Every team he's been on has improved.

[Lipoli390]

Short term, but 40 year old Chris Paul should be a free agent this summer. Every team he's been on has improved.

I’ve been thinking about CP as a possibility. But is he better than Mike Conley? He’s older. But you’re absolutely right that every team he’s been on has improved. He’s super smart. Interesting idea.

[Lipoli390]

As I think about what, if any, high level starting PGs the Wolves should consider pursuing via trade, the two names that keep popping into my head are Darius Garland and Darrick White.

DARIUS GARLAND
This is the guy Rosas traded up to get. But it was a pretty dumb move because he didn’t know for sure he could get him. So we ended up with Culver. Yuck. Garland was my #1 favorite in that draft behind Morant, and as it turns out, Rosas and I were both right about him. In 6 NBA seasons, he’s averaged 19 points and 6.7 assists while hitting 47.2% of his FG attempts and 39% of his threes. And his team last season ended the season with the 2nd best record in the NBA. Yes, they fell on their face in the playoffs, but that’s not all on Garland and that one series can’t eclipse his terrific stats through over 400 games in 6 seasons, including team success. So I would love to have Darius Garland. But what would it take to get him? My sense it would take more than we can give. Naz (sign-and-trade), Jaden, Rob D, #17 and #31 for Darius and salary filler? I don’t think that would work.

DERRICK WHITE
I like him a lot but he still strikes me as more of a SG than PG. He has both Jaylen Brown and Tatum to bear much of the ball-handling duties. With the Wolves he’d just have Ant and I think we need more of an elite ball-handler to pair with Ant. That said, I think he’d help us. Again, the question is: what would it take to get him? I’m certain it would take less than we’d have to give up for Darius. But I don’t have a good sense of how much. I would not include Jaden McDaniels in a package for White. How about Naz sign-and-trade plus our two picks this year and Donte DeVincenzo? The Celtics are going to slide back a bit next season with Tatum out so I think they might be in a bit of a re-tooling mode. They’ll probably get a mid-teens pick next season or maybe even end up in the lottery. Getting two picks this summer plus Naz and Donte would be nice additions to integrate into their team before the following season when Tatum returns.

ROB DILLINGHAM
We don’t have to give up anything more to get him because he’s already here. And we already gave up meaningful assets last year to get him. As I’ve noted a number of times, it’s time to throw him into the deep end next season with Mike Conley still here as his life raft along with Donte to help as well. You generally don’t get better if you don’t get on the court. As we contemplate the possibility of trading for Garland, the case for going with Dillingham next season becomes stronger. Consider the following comparatives between the two:

- They are almost exactly the same size. Rob’s combine measurements were 6’1 without shoes and 164 pounds. Garland doesn’t have combine numbers so we’ll have to go with an adjustment to his “official” public measurements. He’s listed at 6’2, 175. The “official” height is typically at least 1.5 inches and often 2 inches higher than the combine height without shoes. So that puts Garland’s actual height at no more than 6’0.5, which is a half inch shorter than Rob’s height The “official” weight is always at least 5 pounds greater, and more often 10 pounds heavier, than the actual combine weight. I’ve seen some that are inflated by 15 pounds. So that puts Garland’s weight at no more than 165-170, which is comparable to Rob’s.

- Darius played only five college games before being drafted at age 20. Rob Dillingham played 32 college games before being drafted at age 19. In those 32 college games, Rob averaged 23.3 minutes per game, 15.2 points, 4 assists and 3 rebounds while hitting 47.5% of his FG attempts and 44.4% of his threes. So while slightly younger than Darius when he came into the League last year, Rob had far more college experience and put up impressive numbers. He was both productive and efficient.

- In spite of his very limited college experience and small size, Darius played 59 games and 31 minutes per game as a rookie. Not surprisingly, his numbers weren’t great as he averaged 23.3 points and 4 assists while hitting 35.5% of his threes. But those 59 games/30 minutes per game paid off in Garland’s 2nd season when he averaged 33 minutes, 17.4 points, and 6.1 assists while hitting 39.5% of his threes. The next season, his third, he averaged 21.7 points and 8.6 assists. This past season he was the starting PG on the team with the second best record in the NBA. I can give Finch a pass on not playing Rob much last season, but I can’t give him a pass for not starting Rob next season. There is a solid basis for concluding that Rob can be every bit as good as Darius and progress just as quickly and no reason to assume otherwise.

I know Finch sees him in practice but there’s no substitute for actual game experience to fully evaluate and develop a young player. Rob now has an entire NBA season of watching and practicing with a very good team and learning from one of the League’s historically best PGs. He’s been in the weight room building his body and in team meetings studying film. He’s about to have an offseason of further development with an NBA coaching staff and probably Mike Conley among other players as he continues to spend time in the weight room. We traded all the way up to #8 to get Rob based on the judgment of our front office executives that he will be a really good NBA PG and now it’s time to put that judgment to the test. If we end up taking a step back next season then so be it but having Rob as our starter instead of Conley could easily be a step or half-step forward for the team next season.

So my bottom line for the Wolves organization is this. Stop seeking to make a big move that would likely undermine the team’s continuity, give up key talent that helped us make the Western Conference Finals, or risk saddling the team with an older player in decline on a huge contract. Have some faith in your own judge of talent and put the young talent you’ve acquired, specifically TSJ and Rob Dillingham (maybe Clark or Miller), to the test next season as Ant and Jaden continue to improve. Go sign a free agent defensive big and draft Thomas Sorber as a longer term, high upside defensive big. Don’t try to make a splash; just make progress.

[FNG]

Short term, but 40 year old Chris Paul should be a free agent this summer. Every team he's been on has improved.

I’ve been thinking about CP as a possibility. But is he better than Mike Conley? He’s older. But you’re absolutely right that every team he’s been on has improved. He’s super smart. Interesting idea.

I would consider him as an option if somehow Conley was traded...we certainly don't need both of them. They had similar years last year, although Mike is the far superior defender and CP, as a guy who has to have the ball in his hands when he's on the court, had are more assists. Would he defer to Ant like Mike does, or would he continue to demand the ball...and might that even be good for Ant and the team? He's never won a championship, and he might not be opposed to signing for the vet minimum if it meant joining a team that has been to the conference finals is consecutive years.

[FNG]

As I think about what, if any, high level starting PGs the Wolves should consider pursuing via trade, the two names that keep popping into my head are Darius Garland and Darrick White.

DARIUS GARLAND
This is the guy Rosas traded up to get. But it was a pretty dumb move because he didn’t know for sure he could get him. So we ended up with Culver. Yuck. Garland was my #1 favorite in that draft behind Morant, and as it turns out, Rosas and I were both right about him. In 6 NBA seasons, he’s averaged 19 points and 6.7 assists while hitting 47.2% of his FG attempts and 39% of his threes. And his team last season ended the season with the 2nd best record in the NBA. Yes, they fell on their face in the playoffs, but that’s not all on Garland and that one series can’t eclipse his terrific stats through over 400 games in 6 seasons, including team success. So I would love to have Darius Garland. But what would it take to get him? My sense it would take more than we can give. Naz (sign-and-trade), Jaden, Rob D, #17 and #31 for Darius and salary filler? I don’t think that would work.

DERRICK WHITE
I like him a lot but he still strikes me as more of a SG than PG. He has both Jaylen Brown and Tatum to bear much of the ball-handling duties. With the Wolves he’d just have Ant and I think we need more of an elite ball-handler to pair with Ant. That said, I think he’d help us. Again, the question is: what would it take to get him? I’m certain it would take less than we’d have to give up for Darius. But I don’t have a good sense of how much. I would not include Jaden McDaniels in a package for White. How about Naz sign-and-trade plus our two picks this year and Donte DeVincenzo? The Celtics are going to slide back a bit next season with Tatum out so I think they might be in a bit of a re-tooling mode. They’ll probably get a mid-teens pick next season or maybe even end up in the lottery. Getting two picks this summer plus Naz and Donte would be nice additions to integrate into their team before the following season when Tatum returns.

ROB DILLINGHAM
We don’t have to give up anything more to get him because he’s already here. And we already gave up meaningful assets last year to get him. As I’ve noted a number of times, it’s time to throw him into the deep end next season with Mike Conley still here as his life raft along with Donte to help as well. You generally don’t get better if you don’t get on the court. As we contemplate the possibility of trading for Garland, the case for going with Dillingham next season becomes stronger. Consider the following comparatives between the two:

- They are almost exactly the same size. Rob’s combine measurements were 6’1 without shoes and 164 pounds. Garland doesn’t have combine numbers so we’ll have to go with an adjustment to his “official” public measurements. He’s listed at 6’2, 175. The “official” height is typically at least 1.5 inches and often 2 inches higher than the combine height without shoes. So that puts Garland’s actual height at no more than 6’0.5, which is a half inch shorter than Rob’s height The “official” weight is always at least 5 pounds greater, and more often 10 pounds heavier, than the actual combine weight. I’ve seen some that are inflated by 15 pounds. So that puts Garland’s weight at no more than 165-170, which is comparable to Rob’s.

- Darius played only five college games before being drafted at age 20. Rob Dillingham played 32 college games before being drafted at age 19. In those 32 college games, Rob averaged 23.3 minutes per game, 15.2 points, 4 assists and 3 rebounds while hitting 47.5% of his FG attempts and 44.4% of his threes. So while slightly younger than Darius when he came into the League last year, Rob had far more college experience and put up impressive numbers. He was both productive and efficient.

- In spite of his very limited college experience and small size, Darius played 59 games and 31 minutes per game as a rookie. Not surprisingly, his numbers weren’t great as he averaged 23.3 points and 4 assists while hitting 35.5% of his threes. But those 59 games/30 minutes per game paid off in Garland’s 2nd season when he averaged 33 minutes, 17.4 points, and 6.1 assists while hitting 39.5% of his threes. The next season, his third, he averaged 21.7 points and 8.6 assists. This past season he was the starting PG on the team with the second best record in the NBA. I can give Finch a pass on not playing Rob much last season, but I can’t give him a pass for not starting Rob next season. There is a solid basis for concluding that Rob can be every bit as good as Darius and progress just as quickly and no reason to assume otherwise.

I know Finch sees him in practice but there’s no substitute for actual game experience to fully evaluate and develop a young player. Rob now has an entire NBA season of watching and practicing with a very good team and learning from one of the League’s historically best PGs. He’s been in the weight room building his body and in team meetings studying film. He’s about to have an offseason of further development with an NBA coaching staff and probably Mike Conley among other players as he continues to spend time in the weight room. We traded all the way up to #8 to get Rob based on the judgment of our front office executives that he will be a really good NBA PG and now it’s time to put that judgment to the test. If we end up taking a step back next season then so be it but having Rob as our starter instead of Conley could easily be a step or half-step forward for the team next season.

So my bottom line for the Wolves organization is this. Stop seeking to make a big move that would likely undermine the team’s continuity, give up key talent that helped us make the Western Conference Finals, or risk saddling the team with an older player in decline on a huge contract. Have some faith in your own judge of talent and put the young talent you’ve acquired, specifically TSJ and Rob Dillingham (maybe Clark or Miller), to the test next season as Ant and Jaden continue to improve. Go sign a free agent defensive big and draft Thomas Sorber as a longer term, high upside defensive big. Don’t try to make a splash; just make progress.

Lip, I agree that I don't want us to swing for the fences with a PG, because I'm fine with the Conley/Rob tandem. I've said before that as long as Mike is playing defense like he did last year and making 40% of his three's, he is still my starter with Rob backing him up. But I think both should be getting more than 20 MPG, and there may be nights where Rob gets more than Mike. I continue to think that Rob may have more upside than Garland (although Darius is a good comp). They came into the league under totally different circumstances of course. Cleveland was coming off a terrible season and had nothing to lose by starting a young PG. The Wolves on the other hand had just finished getting to the WC finals and had championship aspirations...Rob had the luxury of not being thrown into the fire, but instead was able to observe the NBA game. I'm sure he would have gotten more minutes the second half of the season if he hadn't gotten injured, but I had no problem with the way Finchy used him given the circumstances. Next year though he needs to get his 20+ minutes right from the get go, and I think his true first season as a rotation player will be more successful than Garland's.

[60WinTim]

I’ve said this a couple times, but I think we could be sleeping on Bones Hyland. He’s got talent and has some experience under his belt now. With an offseason under the guidance of the Wolves, he might develop a role on this team.

I’m not suggesting he’s a starter, but he could find his way into meaningful minutes, which could lead to a conversion to a standard contract, not all that dissimilar to Clark.