Starting PG Trade Options

[AussieWolf3]

Interesting. I’m curious how the playoff on/off numbers of other notable elite small NBA PGs stack up. I’m thinking about small All-Star PGs like Mike Conley, Chris Paul, Johnson Stockton, Mark Price, Allen Iverson, Steph Curry, Kyle Lowry, VanVleet and Ja Morant.

One thing I like about Rob over Darius is that Rob is far more athletic. Rob had a 42” vertical in the combine. Darius is estimated to have a 35” vertical at most. As part of having more fast-twitch muscles for leaping, I suspect Rob also is quicker, including lateral quickness on the defensive end.

This is what I keep coming back to regarding Garland/Dillingham- Rob is a superior athlete by a good margin.

My sense is that Fox might be a better comp for Dilly, which would be a pretty positive outcome imo

[Q-is-here]

Lip, here are the Career Playoff On/Off Net Rating numbers for a sampling of short point guards:

Allen Iverson
On: -2.9
Off: +4.7

Chris Paul
On: +.9
Off: -7.1

Mike Conley
On: +2.0
Off: -6.7

Fred VanVleet
On: +1.1
Off: +3.8

Ja Morant
On: -3.1
Off: -4.8

TJ McConnell
On: -.4
Off: +3.1

Payton Pritchard
On: +7.6
Off: +2.7

Darius Garland
On: -8.3
Off: +4.1

Donte DiVincenzo
On: -6.1
Off: +10.3

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

- Even though Donte isn't a short PG, I included him just to emphasize how HORRIBLE he has been. This is across 54 playoff games with four different teams. His teams are bad when he's on the floor and really, really good when he is on the bench! I mean, it couldn't be more stark.

- You can see that Darius Garland is the second worst on this list when looking at the difference between his team's performance when he is on versus off the court. That's a 12.4 point swing (not quite up to DDV's 16.4 point difference)!

- TJ McConnell's are kind of what you'd expect from a solid backup PG. Things don't crater when he's on the floor and the team does marginally better when he's off the floor. TJ measured a half inch shorter than Rob Dillingham.

- Ja Morant's on court rating isn't very good, but at least his team doesn't benefit from him sitting on the bench!

- Allen Iverson's team did better when he was on the bench than in the game. Not what I thought would be the case.

- Mike Conley and Chris Paul-led teams definitely have a drop off when they sit.

- Payton Pritchard, another backup PG, looks really good here. Here is a bench player that genuinely makes his team better when on the floor (and Boston has still been pretty good when he's off the floor).

- Overall, you can't conclude that short PGs = playoff doom. However, none of the starters here have won a ring either (VanVleet won his ring when backing up Lowry).

[Wolvesfan21]

Lip, here are the Career Playoff On/Off Net Rating numbers for a sampling of short point guards:

Allen Iverson
On: -2.9
Off: +4.7

Chris Paul
On: +.9
Off: -7.1

Mike Conley
On: +2.0
Off: -6.7

Fred VanVleet
On: +1.1
Off: +3.8

Ja Morant
On: -3.1
Off: -4.8

TJ McConnell
On: -.4
Off: +3.1

Payton Pritchard
On: +7.6
Off: +2.7

Darius Garland
On: -8.3
Off: +4.1

Donte DiVincenzo
On: -6.1
Off: +10.3

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

- Even though Donte isn't a short PG, I included him just to emphasize how HORRIBLE he has been. This is across 54 playoff games with four different teams. His teams are bad when he's on the floor and really, really good when he is on the bench! I mean, it couldn't be more stark.

- You can see that Darius Garland is the second worst on this list when looking at the difference between his team's performance when he is on versus off the court. That's a 12.4 point swing (not quite up to DDV's 16.4 point difference)!

- TJ McConnell's are kind of what you'd expect from a solid backup PG. Things don't crater when he's on the floor and the team does marginally better when he's off the floor. TJ measured a half inch shorter than Rob Dillingham.

- Ja Morant's on court rating isn't very good, but at least his team doesn't benefit from him sitting on the bench!

- Allen Iverson's team did better when he was on the bench than in the game. Not what I thought would be the case.

- Mike Conley and Chris Paul-led teams definitely have a drop off when they sit.

- Payton Pritchard, another backup PG, looks really good here. Here is a bench player that genuinely makes his team better when on the floor (and Boston has still been pretty good when he's off the floor).

- Overall, you can't conclude that short PGs = playoff doom. However, none of the starters here have won a ring either (VanVleet won his ring when backing up Lowry).

AI fell into the mode of high volume low percentage chucker way too much, trying to carry the load and not good enough defensively though I thought he was always pretty good for his size. I think if he trusted his teammates more he would have been more effective. A bit like Trae Young, which you didn't list, but I think he also would be not great in the on off plus minus.

Seeing this for sure makes me not want Garland, especially at his contract. If his contract was cheaper, then sure. He makes too much for his net effectiveness. Not saying On Off is the only thing to look at either, it can be a bit flawed too.

[Q-is-here]

Lip, here are the Career Playoff On/Off Net Rating numbers for a sampling of short point guards:

Allen Iverson
On: -2.9
Off: +4.7

Chris Paul
On: +.9
Off: -7.1

Mike Conley
On: +2.0
Off: -6.7

Fred VanVleet
On: +1.1
Off: +3.8

Ja Morant
On: -3.1
Off: -4.8

TJ McConnell
On: -.4
Off: +3.1

Payton Pritchard
On: +7.6
Off: +2.7

Darius Garland
On: -8.3
Off: +4.1

Donte DiVincenzo
On: -6.1
Off: +10.3

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

- Even though Donte isn't a short PG, I included him just to emphasize how HORRIBLE he has been. This is across 54 playoff games with four different teams. His teams are bad when he's on the floor and really, really good when he is on the bench! I mean, it couldn't be more stark.

- You can see that Darius Garland is the second worst on this list when looking at the difference between his team's performance when he is on versus off the court. That's a 12.4 point swing (not quite up to DDV's 16.4 point difference)!

- TJ McConnell's are kind of what you'd expect from a solid backup PG. Things don't crater when he's on the floor and the team does marginally better when he's off the floor. TJ measured a half inch shorter than Rob Dillingham.

- Ja Morant's on court rating isn't very good, but at least his team doesn't benefit from him sitting on the bench!

- Allen Iverson's team did better when he was on the bench than in the game. Not what I thought would be the case.

- Mike Conley and Chris Paul-led teams definitely have a drop off when they sit.

- Payton Pritchard, another backup PG, looks really good here. Here is a bench player that genuinely makes his team better when on the floor (and Boston has still been pretty good when he's off the floor).

- Overall, you can't conclude that short PGs = playoff doom. However, none of the starters here have won a ring either (VanVleet won his ring when backing up Lowry).

AI fell into the mode of high volume low percentage chucker way too much, trying to carry the load and not good enough defensively though I thought he was always pretty good for his size. I think if he trusted his teammates more he would have been more effective. A bit like Trae Young, which you didn't list, but I think he also would be not great in the on off plus minus.

Seeing this for sure makes me not want Garland, especially at his contract. If his contract was cheaper, then sure. He makes too much for his net effectiveness. Not saying On Off is the only thing to look at either, it can be a bit flawed too.

Trae Young is a good one to bring up since he's potentially on the trading block and a name that has been floated for the Wolves before. Well, let's hope our front office sees his On/Off data!

Career On Court Net Rating (playoffs): -5.0
Career Off Court Net Rating (playoffs): -1.7

His numbers weren't too bad when they made that run a couple years ago, but his last two playoff series have been really bad.

It seems like the guys that look pretty bad in this stat tend to be both defensively limited and chuck the ball a bit too much offensively and aren't very efficient. Both Garland and Trae's shooting efficiency goes down in the playoffs vs. regular season, which really hurts since they aren't helping you much on the other end.

The thing about Dillingham is I could easily see him follow the DDV/Garland/Trae/Iverson route of playoff basketball, especially if he is relied on too much for scoring and just can't do it as effectively when defenses tighten up this time of the year. I can appreciate why Finch is trying to shape him into more of a pure PG whose scoring develops more in the flow of the game versus forcing things.

[Lipoli390]

Lip, here are the Career Playoff On/Off Net Rating numbers for a sampling of short point guards:

Allen Iverson
On: -2.9
Off: +4.7

Chris Paul
On: +.9
Off: -7.1

Mike Conley
On: +2.0
Off: -6.7

Fred VanVleet
On: +1.1
Off: +3.8

Ja Morant
On: -3.1
Off: -4.8

TJ McConnell
On: -.4
Off: +3.1

Payton Pritchard
On: +7.6
Off: +2.7

Darius Garland
On: -8.3
Off: +4.1

Donte DiVincenzo
On: -6.1
Off: +10.3

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

- Even though Donte isn't a short PG, I included him just to emphasize how HORRIBLE he has been. This is across 54 playoff games with four different teams. His teams are bad when he's on the floor and really, really good when he is on the bench! I mean, it couldn't be more stark.

- You can see that Darius Garland is the second worst on this list when looking at the difference between his team's performance when he is on versus off the court. That's a 12.4 point swing (not quite up to DDV's 16.4 point difference)!

- TJ McConnell's are kind of what you'd expect from a solid backup PG. Things don't crater when he's on the floor and the team does marginally better when he's off the floor. TJ measured a half inch shorter than Rob Dillingham.

- Ja Morant's on court rating isn't very good, but at least his team doesn't benefit from him sitting on the bench!

- Allen Iverson's team did better when he was on the bench than in the game. Not what I thought would be the case.

- Mike Conley and Chris Paul-led teams definitely have a drop off when they sit.

- Payton Pritchard, another backup PG, looks really good here. Here is a bench player that genuinely makes his team better when on the floor (and Boston has still been pretty good when he's off the floor).

- Overall, you can't conclude that short PGs = playoff doom. However, none of the starters here have won a ring either (VanVleet won his ring when backing up Lowry).

AI fell into the mode of high volume low percentage chucker way too much, trying to carry the load and not good enough defensively though I thought he was always pretty good for his size. I think if he trusted his teammates more he would have been more effective. A bit like Trae Young, which you didn't list, but I think he also would be not great in the on off plus minus.

Seeing this for sure makes me not want Garland, especially at his contract. If his contract was cheaper, then sure. He makes too much for his net effectiveness. Not saying On Off is the only thing to look at either, it can be a bit flawed too.

Trae Young is a good one to bring up since he's potentially on the trading block and a name that has been floated for the Wolves before. Well, let's hope our front office sees his On/Off data!

Career On Court Net Rating (playoffs): -5.0
Career Off Court Net Rating (playoffs): -1.7

His numbers weren't too bad when they made that run a couple years ago, but his last two playoff series have been really bad.

It seems like the guys that look pretty bad in this stat tend to be both defensively limited and chuck the ball a bit too much offensively and aren't very efficient. Both Garland and Trae's shooting efficiency goes down in the playoffs vs. regular season, which really hurts since they aren't helping you much on the other end.

The thing about Dillingham is I could easily see him follow the DDV/Garland/Trae/Iverson route of playoff basketball, especially if he is relied on too much for scoring and just can't do it as effectively when defenses tighten up this time of the year. I can appreciate why Finch is trying to shape him into more of a pure PG whose scoring develops more in the flow of the game versus forcing things.

Great point about why Finch (and Conley) are trying to mold Dilly into more of a pure facilitating PG who of course can also light it up. I was watching some highlights of Dilly earlier today. He’s a gifted passer who really sees the floor well. If becomes the type of players Finch and TC want him to be he’ll be a big positive for this team in the playoffs as well as the regular season.

Based on the stats, Chris Paul and Mike Conley are the models for Dilly. Interestingly, one of those two happens to be here to mentor Dilly.

[Q-is-here]

Lip, here are the Career Playoff On/Off Net Rating numbers for a sampling of short point guards:

Allen Iverson
On: -2.9
Off: +4.7

Chris Paul
On: +.9
Off: -7.1

Mike Conley
On: +2.0
Off: -6.7

Fred VanVleet
On: +1.1
Off: +3.8

Ja Morant
On: -3.1
Off: -4.8

TJ McConnell
On: -.4
Off: +3.1

Payton Pritchard
On: +7.6
Off: +2.7

Darius Garland
On: -8.3
Off: +4.1

Donte DiVincenzo
On: -6.1
Off: +10.3

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

- Even though Donte isn't a short PG, I included him just to emphasize how HORRIBLE he has been. This is across 54 playoff games with four different teams. His teams are bad when he's on the floor and really, really good when he is on the bench! I mean, it couldn't be more stark.

- You can see that Darius Garland is the second worst on this list when looking at the difference between his team's performance when he is on versus off the court. That's a 12.4 point swing (not quite up to DDV's 16.4 point difference)!

- TJ McConnell's are kind of what you'd expect from a solid backup PG. Things don't crater when he's on the floor and the team does marginally better when he's off the floor. TJ measured a half inch shorter than Rob Dillingham.

- Ja Morant's on court rating isn't very good, but at least his team doesn't benefit from him sitting on the bench!

- Allen Iverson's team did better when he was on the bench than in the game. Not what I thought would be the case.

- Mike Conley and Chris Paul-led teams definitely have a drop off when they sit.

- Payton Pritchard, another backup PG, looks really good here. Here is a bench player that genuinely makes his team better when on the floor (and Boston has still been pretty good when he's off the floor).

- Overall, you can't conclude that short PGs = playoff doom. However, none of the starters here have won a ring either (VanVleet won his ring when backing up Lowry).

AI fell into the mode of high volume low percentage chucker way too much, trying to carry the load and not good enough defensively though I thought he was always pretty good for his size. I think if he trusted his teammates more he would have been more effective. A bit like Trae Young, which you didn't list, but I think he also would be not great in the on off plus minus.

Seeing this for sure makes me not want Garland, especially at his contract. If his contract was cheaper, then sure. He makes too much for his net effectiveness. Not saying On Off is the only thing to look at either, it can be a bit flawed too.

Trae Young is a good one to bring up since he's potentially on the trading block and a name that has been floated for the Wolves before. Well, let's hope our front office sees his On/Off data!

Career On Court Net Rating (playoffs): -5.0
Career Off Court Net Rating (playoffs): -1.7

His numbers weren't too bad when they made that run a couple years ago, but his last two playoff series have been really bad.

It seems like the guys that look pretty bad in this stat tend to be both defensively limited and chuck the ball a bit too much offensively and aren't very efficient. Both Garland and Trae's shooting efficiency goes down in the playoffs vs. regular season, which really hurts since they aren't helping you much on the other end.

The thing about Dillingham is I could easily see him follow the DDV/Garland/Trae/Iverson route of playoff basketball, especially if he is relied on too much for scoring and just can't do it as effectively when defenses tighten up this time of the year. I can appreciate why Finch is trying to shape him into more of a pure PG whose scoring develops more in the flow of the game versus forcing things.

I looked at Kyle Lowry, another short PG:

On Court Net Rating (playoffs): +2.0
Off Court Net Rating (playoffs): -11.8

That's across 136 playoff games with four different teams, so a very big sample size.

I put Lowry in that Chris Paul/Mike Conley category of guys that can definitely score the ball in their prime, but are usually the third option or second at most and all play very stout defense even though they are giving up height. That seems to be the ideal archetype of shorter PGs that go on to have playoff success, as all the great scoring PGs tend to whither a bit in the face of tougher playoff defenses and then are a liability on the other end as well.

I don't know Lip....not sure Dillingham is really hard-wired to be a true floor general on offense that also defends at a high level. I was impressed - as was Finch apparently - with the effort he gave on defense, so at least we know he isn't a turn-style out there.

[AussieWolf3]

What an insightful discussion! There is a lot here that I would not have guessed regarding some well thought of PGs.

Well here's a thought experiment:
Let's say Wolves brass moves on from Randle in a trade after he opts in, because they want to lean into the young core.

Dillingham has a very promising 2nd season where by season's end he is running a lot of backcourt minutes with Ant. He shows progress as a reliable ball handler and can initiate offense, but also shows off the offensive skillset that he seems very capable of. Basically best case scenario at least on offense.

Now we're in his third season (26-27), he's the locked in starter.

Is that a championship backcourt? Does that provide the team with the secondary creator that inspires playoff success? What else does the team need internally or externally?

Said another way- if Dillingham shows us in season 25-26 that he is on a developmental track that is more Mike Conley than Darious Garland, what else does the team need succeed? Can that be your 2nd option that you can run offense through, or is another player needed cause Rob is still more of a role player? And is that player currently on the roster?

[AbeVigodaLive]

Garland is a good player, and the Wolves would be fortunate if Dillingham ever reaches his level. Even so, Garland brings too many limitations with him (mostly size and D) than he'd be worth to get.

That being said... he was injured in the playoffs this season.

He sat out 4 games with a turf toe. When he returned, he shot 13 - 38 with 12 TOs over the next three games.

He's already had surgery and won't be back for 4 or 5 months.

[Q-is-here]

Garland is a good player, and the Wolves would be fortunate if Dillingham ever reaches his level. Even so, Garland brings too many limitations with him (mostly size and D) than he'd be worth to get.

That being said... he was injured in the playoffs this season.

He sat out 4 games with a turf toe. When he returned, he shot 13 - 38 with 12 TOs over the next three games.

He's already had surgery and won't be back for 4 or 5 months.

Defensive Estimated Plus Minus is one of the "least bad" defensive metrics out there. Rob was in the 45th percentile in defensive EPM and Garland was in the 27th percentile.

In terms of Team Defensive Rating while on the floor (which is even more broad than EPM since it doesn't adjust for team mates), Garland's was a 113.4 and Dillingham's was a 111.1.

My conclusion is that Garland is indeed a poor defensive player, as it's not like he's stuck playing with a bunch of stiffs on that end and their ineptitude spills over to his stats. He played with a massive front line of defensive types.

I have no conclusion for Dillingham given the small sample size, but that goes both ways. I don't think we can conclude he's a good defensive player but we can't just assume he will be bad either. I thought he comported himself quite well on that side of the ball just from a pure eye test perspective, despite being a super young and physically underdeveloped rookie.

Dillingham is skinny, but as Lip has documented he really isn't that short. And it's a lot easier to put on weight than height!

[Lipoli390]

AI fell into the mode of high volume low percentage chucker way too much, trying to carry the load and not good enough defensively though I thought he was always pretty good for his size. I think if he trusted his teammates more he would have been more effective. A bit like Trae Young, which you didn't list, but I think he also would be not great in the on off plus minus.

Seeing this for sure makes me not want Garland, especially at his contract. If his contract was cheaper, then sure. He makes too much for his net effectiveness. Not saying On Off is the only thing to look at either, it can be a bit flawed too.

Trae Young is a good one to bring up since he's potentially on the trading block and a name that has been floated for the Wolves before. Well, let's hope our front office sees his On/Off data!

Career On Court Net Rating (playoffs): -5.0
Career Off Court Net Rating (playoffs): -1.7

His numbers weren't too bad when they made that run a couple years ago, but his last two playoff series have been really bad.

It seems like the guys that look pretty bad in this stat tend to be both defensively limited and chuck the ball a bit too much offensively and aren't very efficient. Both Garland and Trae's shooting efficiency goes down in the playoffs vs. regular season, which really hurts since they aren't helping you much on the other end.

The thing about Dillingham is I could easily see him follow the DDV/Garland/Trae/Iverson route of playoff basketball, especially if he is relied on too much for scoring and just can't do it as effectively when defenses tighten up this time of the year. I can appreciate why Finch is trying to shape him into more of a pure PG whose scoring develops more in the flow of the game versus forcing things.

I looked at Kyle Lowry, another short PG:

On Court Net Rating (playoffs): +2.0
Off Court Net Rating (playoffs): -11.8

That's across 136 playoff games with four different teams, so a very big sample size.

I put Lowry in that Chris Paul/Mike Conley category of guys that can definitely score the ball in their prime, but are usually the third option or second at most and all play very stout defense even though they are giving up height. That seems to be the ideal archetype of shorter PGs that go on to have playoff success, as all the great scoring PGs tend to whither a bit in the face of tougher playoff defenses and then are a liability on the other end as well.

I don't know Lip....not sure Dillingham is really hard-wired to be a true floor general on offense that also defends at a high level. I was impressed - as was Finch apparently - with the effort he gave on defense, so at least we know he isn't a turn-style out there.

A few points:

1. We know who our #1 scorer is, namely Ant. Whether Rob becomes our #2 or #3 option doesn’t really matter. Iverson was his team’s #1 scoring option and had a hall-of-fame career. John Stockton was his team’s #2 option and I suspect he had good on-off playoff numbers. Chris Paul was a #2 option as I recall.

2. When you watch video of Rob you see a gifted facilitator who sees the floor really well and makes pin-point passes to the right player at the right time. Also, you might remember TC commenting last summer that they were more impressed by Rob’s facilitating at Kentucky than his scoring even though he was a terrific shooter and scorer in college.

3. Finch didn’t just praise Rob’s defensive “effort.” He praised his “defensive growth.” His exact comment was that he “loved [Rob’s] defensive growth more than anything.” TC praised Rob for what TC referred to as “Rob’s toughness” and Rob’s quickness.” He also said that “Rob does something not a lot of other people do - he can create easy shots for others and himself.” So the two basketball experts who know the most about Rob after watching him up close for a year have singled out for praise his defensive improvement, toughness, quickness and ability to facilitate for others as well as himself.

4. Finally, regarding the comparison to Darius two things come to mind. First of all, while Darius did not have good on/off playoff numbers he was obviously instrumental in the Cavs getting to the playoffs with the 2nd best record in the League. Second, Rob is far more athletic than Darius with a 42” combine max vertical compared to what has been reported as around a 35” vertical at most for Darius. That higher level athleticism definitely will help Rob defensively compared to Darius and it also has made Rob a pretty good rebounder at his position compared to Darius and others. Finally, Darius was always viewed primarily as scorer while I think Rob is more of a natural playmaker as evidenced by the comments of TC both last year and this year as well as video.

Bottom line is that we’ll never know for sure what Rob can be or do if he doesn’t play and with a year under his belt it’s time to see what we have in the guy TC traded all the way up to #8 to get. I’m confident Rob will be a very good player as envisioned by TC and his staff when they traded for his draft rights. He doesn’t have to be a great defender since we have Ant, Jaden and Rudy. He doesn’t have to be our #1 scorer since we have Ant. If we keep Randle, then he doesn’t have to be our #2. Even if we don’t keep Randle, we’d have Jaden and Naz with means Rob could still be our #3 option.