So What's Your Plan? The Offseason Roster Construction Thread

[rapsuperstar31]

Please don't run it back. Okc isn't going anywhere.

This is my contention as well. Why would you want to run back a roster that can't beat a Western conference rival? Changes must be made and imo they need to start with Randle.

I think running it back is fine, as long as you don't give Randle, Naz, and NAW contracts that are untradeable or hard to move and keeps you out of the 2nd tax apron. If you sign say Randle to a contract your stuck with, that would be a horrible move. Sign them to deals that can be moved in the future, and if a good player becomes attainable you have them as trade pieces/salary slots.
SGA made his biggest gains at age 24, hopefully Ant and Jaden can do the same this year. This will be Ants first full normal summer in three years, since he was with team usa last year and fiba the previous year. Hopefully he gets in the lab, works on that mid range, play making and everything else to get him into that mvp discussion. Hopefully Jaden is working on offense hard this summer as well hitting those threes and mid range. Shannon, Rob, and Clark should all get better working out this summer. If we draft someone at 17 they could be useful as well, with some decent players in this draft.

[FNG]

Lip, listen to Dane Moore’s recent podcast. He lays out a scenario where we can retain all three of Ju, Naz and NAW while remaining under the second apron. Better to watch it on YouTube because it really gets into the weeds. This is my preferred scenario because I see improvement with the familiarity of our guys having played together an entire season and adding more minutes from our young guys plus #17 and/or 31. Running it back though is inconsistent with TCs MO, as he typically does something totally unexpected…I.e. something nobody has thrown out here as a possibility!

I agree it’s unlikely Naz opts in without a long term deal. Those that think he will though think he will bet on himself and become a free agent next year when he there is more money.

[Coolbreeze44]

Running it back pretty much guarantees we don't get out of the West. Jaden would again be stifled in his offensive game. I just don't understand the logic. SMH.

[BloopOracle]

Insiders saying Brooklyn and Detroit are both interested in Naz. They are the two cap space teams so I'm not expecting him to be back

[Phenom]

Insiders saying Brooklyn and Detroit are both interested in Naz. They are the two cap space teams so I'm not expecting him to be back

From what I understand, Detroit can't outbid the Wolves but they can be in the ballpark AND will offer him a starting spot.

Brooklyn can outbid the Wolves but are they a Naz Reid away from taking a leap? Their cap space will be in high demand and they have a chance to make out like bandits by renting it out.

[FNG]

Running it back pretty much guarantees we don't get out of the West. Jaden would again be stifled in his offensive game. I just don't understand the logic. SMH.

Cool, I don't agree with the premise that running it back (with the addition of more minutes from our young 3 plus perhaps a draft pick or two) says we won't get out of the West. Here's my logic:

1) I'm a big TC fan, but his need to shake things up every year seems to lead to a slow start to a season before the new pieces get used to each other. That's why I would prefer he not make a big move this offseason like he is accustomed to doing. I'm a big fan of continuity, and it was clear how much better this team was playing at the end of the season than the start.

2) I like that TC and Finchy are both saying that they want to bring everyone back (of course they have to say that) and that the young 3 have proven they are ready and will get a lot of playing time. I mentioned in another thread that OkC and Indy played more players meaningful minutes than any team other than the Warriors, and way more than we did. I think Finchy is smart and notices that the two teams in the finals play more guys and play at a faster pace and are fresher at the end. I can't wait to see what this talented roster can do at a faster pace.

3) I know you're a gambler, so perhaps you're familiar with the expression in horseracing of "bid, hung". Horses that compete for a win but fall just short are described as "bid, hung" and are often a very good bet to win in their next race because they are hungrier. I think an intact Wolves team will be hungry next year, and will come into the season focused on winning a championship.

4) Conversely, teams that win a championship are usually not as hungry the subsequent year. They are not as likely to train hard and work on their games in the offseason. I think OkC is a terrific team, but a lot of their success is due to intensity rather than talent (I personally think we may be a more talented team), and I don't expect them to play with the same urgency and intensity next season...assuming they do beat Indy. If they lose to Indy, I think they might be even scarier next season. It's human nature.

I also don't agree that the same roster is stifling for Jaden. On the contrary, I thought he had his best season ever...career highs in minutes played, points, assists, rebounds, and field goal attempts, and a career low in fouls. I hope he is stifled again next season, it that's what stifling does to him! I thought Jaden's only problem this season was his shooting. Ant, Ju and Conley gave him so many open looks in the corner, but his 33.5% success rate was far worse than any of his previous seasons. I think we all have nightmares of all the open looks he missed from the corner in the first quarter of the final game against OkC. His teammates look for him, he just didn't make the shots. And that's another reason I am bullish on this team if they run it back. I don't think Jaden is a 33.5% shooter from the corners...I think the 38%+ he has achieved the other 4 years of his career is a better indicator of what he is capable of. He's an intense competitor and can't be happy about his shooting this season. I expect him to take about 10,000 corner 3's this summer and shoot much better next season. And I know his teammates will be looking for him just like they did this season.

So that's my logic about wanting them to run it back...continuity after making the conference finals for the second year in a row combined with an expanded rotation. Now, what do I think will happen? If past is prologue, TC will make another huge move that will shake this roster up again. And if he does, I'm enough of a rube to get excited about whatever he pulls together. But I can also be critical, so if he takes a big swing and we don't win 50+ games next season, I'll be the first to say he screwed up when he had a really good thing going.

[WildWolf2813]

Insiders saying Brooklyn and Detroit are both interested in Naz. They are the two cap space teams so I'm not expecting him to be back

From what I understand, Detroit can't outbid the Wolves but they can be in the ballpark AND will offer him a starting spot.

Brooklyn can outbid the Wolves but are they a Naz Reid away from taking a leap? Their cap space will be in high demand and they have a chance to make out like bandits by renting it out.

I don't think Brooklyn is in the business of wanting to use their cap space on just bad deals because at some point they do want to get better. They don't want this to be a 5 year process.

[Lipoli390]

Lip, listen to Dane Moore’s recent podcast. He lays out a scenario where we can retain all three of Ju, Naz and NAW while remaining under the second apron. Better to watch it on YouTube because it really gets into the weeds. This is my preferred scenario because I see improvement with the familiarity of our guys having played together an entire season and adding more minutes from our young guys plus #17 and/or 31. Running it back though is inconsistent with TCs MO, as he typically does something totally unexpected…I.e. something nobody has thrown out here as a possibility!

I agree it’s unlikely Naz opts in without a long term deal. Those that think he will though think he will bet on himself and become a free agent next year when he there is more money.

I recall seeing that podcast. As I recall, the keep all three scenario isn’t realistic. I also think running it back with all three isn’t optimal. Keeping NAW makes little sense to me what it would cost to keep him makes little sense to me with Donte, TSJ and Clark here. So the question in my mind is whether we can or should keep both bigs. I don’t think we can because I don’t see Naz staying unless Randle simply exercises his one year option. Naz will get financial offers that make staying here in a likely 6th man role in perpetuity unacceptable for him. So I think we end up with one of the other. For me, Naz is the easy choice between the two given what he brings to the table, how his style and skills fit on the court with our core (especially with Jaden), his friendship and chemistry with our core guys, his low turnover rate compared to Randle, his rim protection compared to Randle, and his age. If Randle leave, then I see Naz signing here for less than the Nets or Detroit might offer.

[Lipoli390]

Running it back pretty much guarantees we don't get out of the West. Jaden would again be stifled in his offensive game. I just don't understand the logic. SMH.

Cool, I don't agree with the premise that running it back (with the addition of more minutes from our young 3 plus perhaps a draft pick or two) says we won't get out of the West. Here's my logic:

1) I'm a big TC fan, but his need to shake things up every year seems to lead to a slow start to a season before the new pieces get used to each other. That's why I would prefer he not make a big move this offseason like he is accustomed to doing. I'm a big fan of continuity, and it was clear how much better this team was playing at the end of the season than the start.

2) I like that TC and Finchy are both saying that they want to bring everyone back (of course they have to say that) and that the young 3 have proven they are ready and will get a lot of playing time. I mentioned in another thread that OkC and Indy played more players meaningful minutes than any team other than the Warriors, and way more than we did. I think Finchy is smart and notices that the two teams in the finals play more guys and play at a faster pace and are fresher at the end. I can't wait to see what this talented roster can do at a faster pace.

3) I know you're a gambler, so perhaps you're familiar with the expression in horseracing of "bid, hung". Horses that compete for a win but fall just short are described as "bid, hung" and are often a very good bet to win in their next race because they are hungrier. I think an intact Wolves team will be hungry next year, and will come into the season focused on winning a championship.

4) Conversely, teams that win a championship are usually not as hungry the subsequent year. They are not as likely to train hard and work on their games in the offseason. I think OkC is a terrific team, but a lot of their success is due to intensity rather than talent (I personally think we may be a more talented team), and I don't expect them to play with the same urgency and intensity next season...assuming they do beat Indy. If they lose to Indy, I think they might be even scarier next season. It's human nature.

I also don't agree that the same roster is stifling for Jaden. On the contrary, I thought he had his best season ever...career highs in minutes played, points, assists, rebounds, and field goal attempts, and a career low in fouls. I hope he is stifled again next season, it that's what stifling does to him! I thought Jaden's only problem this season was his shooting. Ant, Ju and Conley gave him so many open looks in the corner, but his 33.5% success rate was far worse than any of his previous seasons. I think we all have nightmares of all the open looks he missed from the corner in the first quarter of the final game against OkC. His teammates look for him, he just didn't make the shots. And that's another reason I am bullish on this team if they run it back. I don't think Jaden is a 33.5% shooter from the corners...I think the 38%+ he has achieved the other 4 years of his career is a better indicator of what he is capable of. He's an intense competitor and can't be happy about his shooting this season. I expect him to take about 10,000 corner 3's this summer and shoot much better next season. And I know his teammates will be looking for him just like they did this season.

So that's my logic about wanting them to run it back...continuity after making the conference finals for the second year in a row combined with an expanded rotation. Now, what do I think will happen? If past is prologue, TC will make another huge move that will shake this roster up again. And if he does, I'm enough of a rube to get excited about whatever he pulls together. But I can also be critical, so if he takes a big swing and we don't win 50+ games next season, I'll be the first to say he screwed up when he had a really good thing going.

Interesting debate. I agree with you, FNG, that TC should not “shake things up.” I think trading for Rudy was clearly a shake up as was trading Towns for Randle and Donte. But trading or letting Randle go doesn’t strike me up as shaking it up - at least not nearly to the same degree. The team underperformed with Randle early and then performed really well when he returned from his injury. In between, the team played well in his absence. I like what I saw during that stretch. Jaden probably played his best offensive basketball during that stretch and you could see TSJ and Clark start to blossom. In my view, that’s the foundation for a championship Wolves team in a couple years. I’m OK if we take a half step back next season if that’s what it takes to take a couple steps forward thereafter with a young core that will have a lot of years in front of it. I can appreciate the alternative view but that’s my take. And if we do this right, we don’t necessarily have to take a half step back next season. I have confidence in going forward with Ant, Jaden, Naz, Rudy, Donte next season. I see lots of potential to round out the rotation through some combination of the following: Mike Conley, TSJ, Clark and Dilly. If we trade Randle, we should get a decent rotation player in return. If we let him walk, we’ll have the full MLE to work with. And we also have two nice picks this month as well.

[D-Loser25]

This is my contention as well. Why would you want to run back a roster that can't beat a Western conference rival? Changes must be made and imo they need to start with Randle.

I think running it back and not signing Randle and Naz long term is different than running it back and signing both long term.

Like if they both opt in and don’t sign long term the wolves could have 35 million to spend in 26-27. Not saying that is my preferred route but I don’t hate that option

I agree, Kek. The scenario where both Naz and Randle opt in is very different in my mind from signing both to long-term deals. If they both exercise their options, we’ll be in very good financial shape while retaining flexibility beyond next season.

But I think it’s highly unlikely that Naz will opt into his $15 million for one year because that amount is too low compared to his current market value in spite of the limited pool of teams with cap space. I can see Randle exercising his $31 million option although I’m sure he’d much prefer a longer term deal. I don’t think Randle will find any teams out there willing to pay him more than around $110 million over four years and I could see his value ending up at closer to $100 million. I think Randle’s value is limited by poor his historically poor defense, lack of any rim protection ability, turnover propensity, mediocre 3-point shooting, overall style of play and age. I suspect Naz has a higher market value than Randle because of his better mobility, superior handle, lower turnover rate and significantly better three-point shooting as well as his age and potential for remaining upside. I see Naz having a market value this summer of around $115 million.

I see the following four possible scenarios:

Scenario #1 (Long-Term Run-It-Back Scenario - Naz and Randle Sign Extensions). I don’t think this scenario is realistic even though the Wolves can probably do it and remain below the 2nd apron. Last I looked, I think the Wolves can sign both Naz and Randle to contracts starting at around $27 million next year and remain barely under the 2nd apron if they let NAW go and don’t use their taxpayer MLE. That’s essentially the “run-it-back scenario” but relying on some combination of TSJ, Clark and/or Donte to fill the void left by NAW’s departure. I’m OK with this scenario, although I’m generally in Cool’s camp preferring to move on from Randle. And I’m especially dubious of signing Randle long term.

Scenario #2 (Short Term Run-It-Back Scenario - Randle Opt-In/Naz Extension). If Randle opts in at $31 million, which is plausible, we could sign Naz long term if he’s willing to take a somewhat below-market contract starting at around $23 million and going up from there over four years. I could see Naz agreeing to this because having Randle on only a 1-year deal would open the door to Naz becoming a starter the following season and I could see him being OK with that given how much he likes it here.

Scenario #3 (Randle In/Naz Out Scenario — Extend Randle & Trade Naz). Signing Randle to a multi-year deal probably means Naz will leave. I don’t see Naz accepting the same amount of money or less to stay here if Randle gets a multi-year deal because that would suggest Naz will remain in his 6th-man role and I don’t see him accepting that for more than one more year. In this scenario the Wolves would likely sign-and-trade Naz. I can’t see TC just letting Naz walk and the good relationship between the Wolves front office and Naz lends itself to a win-win type sign-and-trade scenario.

Scenario #4 (Naz In/Randle Out Scenario — Extend Naz & Trade Randle). In this scenario, we sign Naz to a 4-year deal of probably around $115 million starting at maybe $25 million next season and work out a sign-and-trade deal for Randle on a multi-year deal. I think coming up with a sign-and-trade for Randle would be more difficult that coming up with one for Naz and I doubt we’d get as good a return for Randle. However, I would think that TC could find a deal that works where we would take back less salary. Perhaps we could sweeten the deal by adding both of our picks and Josh Minott, along with Randle, for Derrick White. Boston is over the 2nd apron so salaries would have to match perfectly. White is due $28.1 million next season. We could sign Randle to a 4 year deal starting at that amount as part of the sign-and-trade, but we wouldn’t be able to include Minott.

My preference would be scenario #4 regardless of what, if anything, we get in return for Randle. I’d be comfortable letting him walk and using the additional payroll flexibility to sign a solid defensive rotation big using the MLE.

You keep saying that Naz has a market value of 115 mil over 4 years, but how do you figure? Show me the team that is gonna give him 115 mil over 4 years without the wolves doing a sign and trade. A players market is defined by what a team is willing to pay him. I think the wolves would be stupid to facilitate a typical sign and trade for a guy like Naz (unless they’re getting a dollar back on the dollar and a better fit). I might be wrong, but I think you’re overvaluing Naz and Ultimately, I think his market value right now is only 15 mil unless the wolves do something stupid. Randle on the other hand… I think they should sign and trade him.
His value is pretty high, and I don’t think he’s a great fit.

If I’m TC, I tell Naz that if he opts in, I’ll give him a 4-80 extension. If he laughs, say good luck getting something better on the open market, without a sign and trade. It’s life changing money guaranteed on a team that loves him - let him make the decision to walk away from that and if he does it would have to be Brooklyn and I don’t think it would be a big loss. Obviously I wouldn’t negotiate like this with Ant, but cmon guys, quit bidding against yourself on these marginal players.