Kevin Durant Rumors

[60WinTim]

A “Suns insider” believes KD will be traded next week… (from HoopsHype)

I went over all sorts of possibilities for a Wolves trade under this years CBA. It’s not possible. There is not a team out there with enough trade exception space that isn’t already hard capped to absorb the salary needed to get the Wolves under 2nd apron - a necessity for making a KD trade.

[Coolbreeze44]

Tim, Couldn't a series of moves get us to position for a trade?

[Q-is-here]

I don’t know, Lip. I had just assumed there was no way a KD trade would go down. But, damn, there is a hell of a lot of smoke out there! And where there is smoke…

I have completely flipped my opinion now. Go get KD! It fits everything TC is about: surround ANT with players that keeps him in the fast lane to becoming the best he can be. Last year the most glaring weakness was adding an additional playmaker: Julius Randle. This year a glaring weakness was a reliable scorer alongside ANT — a year or two of KD would address that weakness.

I trust TC to keep finding ways to address our immediate needs, while still keeping the cupboard filled with talent that can sustain the winning after KD’s time expires.

I'm not sure I was ever totally against it, but I've come around a bit too where I'm probably closer to 60/40 in favor vs. not in favor, ha ha. It really depends on what we give up and what a contract extension might look like.

Lip, this idea that Durant is a horrible defender.....not sure where that's coming from. Granted, I didn't watch him a lot this past season and I have no doubt he isn't a great defender, but he ranks in the 59th percentile in Defensive estimated plus minus versus Randle (49th percentile). And Randle played in between Rudy and Jaden while Durant didn't get any help at Center defensively.

I think Durant will be motivated to get with the program and defend if he is on a contending team and has more help overall.

The idea that Durant is a terrible defender comes right from his defensive rating the past five seasons, which got progressively worse: 112 in 2020-21, 113 in 2021-22, 114.4 in 2023-24 and 118.9 just last season. That’s an unmistakable decline with age from bad (112) to terrible at 119. Now if you look at Durant’s entire career, it’s clear he was once an elite defender. But we’re not talking about that Durant. We’re talking about the post-Achilles Durant in his 30s whose defensive rating has consistently declined from bad to terrible over the past five years. I don’t think there’s any legitimate debate about whether the current 37 year old version of Durant is a bad defender. He’s a bad defender, period. He’s still a terrific shooter who scores a lot of points very efficiently. But that’s all he is. He’s not a playmaker. He’s not very mobile. And he’s a poor defender. Moreover, you can count on him to miss at least 20 games and you can’t know how much his game will further decline as he gets closer to age 40.

Lip, I have this discussion about every few months with FNG as well and I will continue to beat the drum until folks stop referring to it. I'm assuming you pulled those defensive ratings from Basketball Reference? That is an outdated metric developed by Dean Oliver many years ago and it largely uses team defense (and yes, Phoenix was pretty bad on defense last year) and box score stats to determine an individual's Defensive Rating.

In fact, the basketball reference folks had to put these two caveats in to the metric (my bold and underline):

- Out of necessity (owing to a lack of defensive data in the basic boxscore), individual Defensive Ratings are heavily influenced by the team's defensive efficiency. They assume that all teammates are equally good (per minute) at forcing non-steal turnovers and non-block misses, as well as assuming that all teammates face the same number of total possessions per minute.

- Perhaps as a byproduct, big men tend to have the best Defensive Ratings (although Oliver notes that history's best defensive teams were generally anchored by dominant defensive big men, suggesting that those types of players are the most important to a team's defensive success). A corollary to this is that excellent perimeter defenders who don't steal the ball a lot — for instance, Joe Dumars or Doug Christie — are underrated defensively by DRtg, and are prone to look only as good as their team's overall defense performs.

END

Now it's no secret that Phoenix struggled defensively last year and Durant himself is not capable of being an anchor on that end. Like a lot of scoring NBA PFs, he needs to do his fair share but isn't going to be expected to guard the opposing team's best wing or anchor the paint.

I've already quoted a much more modern defensive metric (D-EPM) in my prior post that suggests Durant is still average-ish to slightly above on defense. None of us really know without a more extensive eye test, but my point is that you shouldn't be hanging your hat on the B-ball reference stat to support your claim.

[rapsuperstar31]

A “Suns insider” believes KD will be traded next week… (from HoopsHype)

I went over all sorts of possibilities for a Wolves trade under this years CBA. It’s not possible. There is not a team out there with enough trade exception space that isn’t already hard capped to absorb the salary needed to get the Wolves under 2nd apron - a necessity for making a KD trade.

The Wolves are 15 million under the 2nd apron and 8 million below the 1st apron on the first day of free agency. The result of any trade needs to land both Minnesota and Phoenix at or under the 1st apron.

[rapsuperstar31]

[Charania] "The focus of the Suns' conversation has been on a few of the teams and here they are: the Houston Rockets, the Miami Heat, and the Minnesota Timberwolves."

Charnia is saying San Antonio and New York are out of talks.

[FNG]

I'm not sure I was ever totally against it, but I've come around a bit too where I'm probably closer to 60/40 in favor vs. not in favor, ha ha. It really depends on what we give up and what a contract extension might look like.

Lip, this idea that Durant is a horrible defender.....not sure where that's coming from. Granted, I didn't watch him a lot this past season and I have no doubt he isn't a great defender, but he ranks in the 59th percentile in Defensive estimated plus minus versus Randle (49th percentile). And Randle played in between Rudy and Jaden while Durant didn't get any help at Center defensively.

I think Durant will be motivated to get with the program and defend if he is on a contending team and has more help overall.

The idea that Durant is a terrible defender comes right from his defensive rating the past five seasons, which got progressively worse: 112 in 2020-21, 113 in 2021-22, 114.4 in 2023-24 and 118.9 just last season. That’s an unmistakable decline with age from bad (112) to terrible at 119. Now if you look at Durant’s entire career, it’s clear he was once an elite defender. But we’re not talking about that Durant. We’re talking about the post-Achilles Durant in his 30s whose defensive rating has consistently declined from bad to terrible over the past five years. I don’t think there’s any legitimate debate about whether the current 37 year old version of Durant is a bad defender. He’s a bad defender, period. He’s still a terrific shooter who scores a lot of points very efficiently. But that’s all he is. He’s not a playmaker. He’s not very mobile. And he’s a poor defender. Moreover, you can count on him to miss at least 20 games and you can’t know how much his game will further decline as he gets closer to age 40.

Lip, I have this discussion about every few months with FNG as well and I will continue to beat the drum until folks stop referring to it. I'm assuming you pulled those defensive ratings from Basketball Reference? That is an outdated metric developed by Dean Oliver many years ago and it largely uses team defense (and yes, Phoenix was pretty bad on defense last year) and box score stats to determine an individual's Defensive Rating.

In fact, the basketball reference folks had to put these two caveats in to the metric (my bold and underline):

- Out of necessity (owing to a lack of defensive data in the basic boxscore), individual Defensive Ratings are heavily influenced by the team's defensive efficiency. They assume that all teammates are equally good (per minute) at forcing non-steal turnovers and non-block misses, as well as assuming that all teammates face the same number of total possessions per minute.

- Perhaps as a byproduct, big men tend to have the best Defensive Ratings (although Oliver notes that history's best defensive teams were generally anchored by dominant defensive big men, suggesting that those types of players are the most important to a team's defensive success). A corollary to this is that excellent perimeter defenders who don't steal the ball a lot — for instance, Joe Dumars or Doug Christie — are underrated defensively by DRtg, and are prone to look only as good as their team's overall defense performs.

END

Now it's no secret that Phoenix struggled defensively last year and Durant himself is not capable of being an anchor on that end. Like a lot of scoring NBA PFs, he needs to do his fair share but isn't going to be expected to guard the opposing team's best wing or anchor the paint.

I've already quoted a much more modern defensive metric (D-EPM) in my prior post that suggests Durant is still average-ish to slightly above on defense. None of us really know without a more extensive eye test, but my point is that you shouldn't be hanging your hat on the B-ball reference stat to support your claim.

Q, I have June 15 on my calendar for our next argument about basketball reference. But I can’t annoy you enough on my own, so I’ve recruited Lip to help me!

[AbeVigodaLive]

I don’t know, Lip. I had just assumed there was no way a KD trade would go down. But, damn, there is a hell of a lot of smoke out there! And where there is smoke…

I have completely flipped my opinion now. Go get KD! It fits everything TC is about: surround ANT with players that keeps him in the fast lane to becoming the best he can be. Last year the most glaring weakness was adding an additional playmaker: Julius Randle. This year a glaring weakness was a reliable scorer alongside ANT — a year or two of KD would address that weakness.

I trust TC to keep finding ways to address our immediate needs, while still keeping the cupboard filled with talent that can sustain the winning after KD’s time expires.

I'm not sure I was ever totally against it, but I've come around a bit too where I'm probably closer to 60/40 in favor vs. not in favor, ha ha. It really depends on what we give up and what a contract extension might look like.

Lip, this idea that Durant is a horrible defender.....not sure where that's coming from. Granted, I didn't watch him a lot this past season and I have no doubt he isn't a great defender, but he ranks in the 59th percentile in Defensive estimated plus minus versus Randle (49th percentile). And Randle played in between Rudy and Jaden while Durant didn't get any help at Center defensively.

I think Durant will be motivated to get with the program and defend if he is on a contending team and has more help overall.

The idea that Durant is a terrible defender comes right from his defensive rating the past five seasons, which got progressively worse: 112 in 2020-21, 113 in 2021-22, 114.4 in 2023-24 and 118.9 just last season. That’s an unmistakable decline with age from bad (112) to terrible at 119. Now if you look at Durant’s entire career, it’s clear he was once an elite defender. But we’re not talking about that Durant. We’re talking about the post-Achilles Durant in his 30s whose defensive rating has consistently declined from bad to terrible over the past five years. I don’t think there’s any legitimate debate about whether the current 37 year old version of Durant is a bad defender. He’s a bad defender, period. He’s still a terrific shooter who scores a lot of points very efficiently. But that’s all he is. He’s not a playmaker. He’s not very mobile. And he’s a poor defender. Moreover, you can count on him to miss at least 20 games and you can’t know how much his game will further decline as he gets closer to age 40.

The defensive rating decline is definitely noticeable... but...

The average defensive rating across the league is on the rise, too. Last year was bad, as the Suns plummeted to near the bottom of the league. But consider...

In 2024, Durant was 72nd overall in DRTG, just ahead of Paul George and Aaron Gordon. But 61 spots behind defensive stalwart, Karl-Anthony Towns.
2023, Durant was 55th.
2022, Durant was 86th.
2021, Durant was around #70 (if he qualified with games played).

His ranking actually seems pretty steady over that span compared to other players until this year when he dropped to #159. Likewise, his teammate Tyus Jones who regularly was in the top 60 or 70 for years in Memphis... has been around #150 the past two years in Wash and Pho. Teammates can impact that rating, too.

[Q-is-here]

The idea that Durant is a terrible defender comes right from his defensive rating the past five seasons, which got progressively worse: 112 in 2020-21, 113 in 2021-22, 114.4 in 2023-24 and 118.9 just last season. That’s an unmistakable decline with age from bad (112) to terrible at 119. Now if you look at Durant’s entire career, it’s clear he was once an elite defender. But we’re not talking about that Durant. We’re talking about the post-Achilles Durant in his 30s whose defensive rating has consistently declined from bad to terrible over the past five years. I don’t think there’s any legitimate debate about whether the current 37 year old version of Durant is a bad defender. He’s a bad defender, period. He’s still a terrific shooter who scores a lot of points very efficiently. But that’s all he is. He’s not a playmaker. He’s not very mobile. And he’s a poor defender. Moreover, you can count on him to miss at least 20 games and you can’t know how much his game will further decline as he gets closer to age 40.

Lip, I have this discussion about every few months with FNG as well and I will continue to beat the drum until folks stop referring to it. I'm assuming you pulled those defensive ratings from Basketball Reference? That is an outdated metric developed by Dean Oliver many years ago and it largely uses team defense (and yes, Phoenix was pretty bad on defense last year) and box score stats to determine an individual's Defensive Rating.

In fact, the basketball reference folks had to put these two caveats in to the metric (my bold and underline):

- Out of necessity (owing to a lack of defensive data in the basic boxscore), individual Defensive Ratings are heavily influenced by the team's defensive efficiency. They assume that all teammates are equally good (per minute) at forcing non-steal turnovers and non-block misses, as well as assuming that all teammates face the same number of total possessions per minute.

- Perhaps as a byproduct, big men tend to have the best Defensive Ratings (although Oliver notes that history's best defensive teams were generally anchored by dominant defensive big men, suggesting that those types of players are the most important to a team's defensive success). A corollary to this is that excellent perimeter defenders who don't steal the ball a lot — for instance, Joe Dumars or Doug Christie — are underrated defensively by DRtg, and are prone to look only as good as their team's overall defense performs.

END

Now it's no secret that Phoenix struggled defensively last year and Durant himself is not capable of being an anchor on that end. Like a lot of scoring NBA PFs, he needs to do his fair share but isn't going to be expected to guard the opposing team's best wing or anchor the paint.

I've already quoted a much more modern defensive metric (D-EPM) in my prior post that suggests Durant is still average-ish to slightly above on defense. None of us really know without a more extensive eye test, but my point is that you shouldn't be hanging your hat on the B-ball reference stat to support your claim.

Q, I have June 15 on my calendar for our next argument about basketball reference. But I can’t annoy you enough on my own, so I’ve recruited Lip to help me!

And you've succeeded! Now if KG4Ever starts quoting that figure and telling us that Durant is a franchise-sabotaging losing terrorist who hasn't accomplished anything because of his defense, then you have a real dilemma on your hands!

[BloopOracle]

Shams just said it's essentially down to Houston, Miami, and Minnesota.

[60WinTim]

Tim, Couldn't a series of moves get us to position for a trade?

No. There just isn’t enough cap space out there.

Now, a trade could be agreed upon, to be executed after July 1st. But if it involves Randle, he kind of needs to be part of the negotiations as well.