Wolves PG Situation

[Lipoli390]

There’s been a lot of dialogue in multiple threads about the Wolves PG situation. Is Mike Conley too old? Is Rob Dillingham too young or too slight? With two roster spots left and very little room under the 2nd apron, should we sign a third PG who we can trust to step into the rotation as a starter or #2 if Mike or Rob falters?

Here’s where I’m at.

Regarding whether Mike is too old, his performance level certainly declined substantially from two seasons ago to last season; however, he still shot and defended reasonably well. He’s clearly not the player he used to be but I think it’s an exaggeration to say he’s too old to make a positive contribution as our PG playing significant minutes. Our front office apparently doesn’t believe he’s too old; if they do they should have traded him.

Regarding whether Rob is too young, here’s what Tim Connelly said a year ago when asked if Rob would play last season: "Yeah, he's gonna play. He's gonna play," said Connelly. "Again, we were pretty aggressive and we gave up a pretty valuable asset. He's a guy from day one that is going to be given an opportunity. Obviously he's got to earn to keep that opportunity. But we traded for him to play right away." That was a full year ago. TC knew Rob better than any of us. He knew his length and his weight but he still traded up for him and said he expected Rob to play as a rookie. Rob is a year older, heavier and stronger with a year of NBA experience watching and practicing with the Wolves. Is he as good now as he’ll be in a two or three years? Of course not. Is he too young to play 20+ minutes per game game? No. He’ll make mistakes he wouldn’t make in a couple years and he’ll get out-muscled more now than in a couple years when he should be another 5-10 pounds heavier.

I’m fine signing another PG but we need to be realistic about who we’ll be able to get. As the recent Jones brother signings have shown us, the vet minimum won’t bring us the caliber PG we can count on to step into the rotation as our starter or clear #2 if Mike or Rob falters. That means, if we want a PG like, for example, Cole Anthony, we’d have to use at least a significant chunk of our $5.78M TMLE and even then it’s unlikely that sort of free agent PG would come here to compete for minutes with Mike Conley and last season’s #8 pick. We can certainly add a Dinwiddie or our old friend JMac at the vet minimum. That sort of player might be able to help us in a pinch. But if Mike or Rob really falters then our only recourse is to rely on our bevy of SGs - Ant, Donte, Clark, TSJ - to fill the gap and function without a true PG. It’s not ideal, but it will keep us competitive.

There’s no getting around the fact that the Wolves front office has cast their lot with Mike and Rob. If it had been up to me, I would have traded Mike and gone after Tyus Jones. That’s not what they did. I have enough trust in TC and in what we’ve seen from both Mike and Rob to believe the Mike-Rob duo can be effective getting us back to the WCF and possibly beyond. But I also acknowledge going with Rob as our #1 or 2 with Mike might mean taking a step back to set us up better in the long run. If we’re going to take a step back, next season is the time to do it since we have our own 1st round pick next year.

So I’m at peace with our situation at the PG position. It’s not ideal but it’s not terribly fraught either. It could work really well next season or simply set us up to succeed thereafter.

I continue to believe our more critical need is a defensive backup for Rudy. If Rudy goes down, it will fundamentally change our defense with no configuration that can get us through. If Mike Conley or Rob falters or gets hurt, we have a bevy of two-way guards who can fill the gap on both sides of the ball. So I’m convinced TC’s free agent focus should be on the center, not the PG, position.

[Monster]

I think the Wolves will likely just sign 2 players to vet min deals and leave themselves some room just in case they need to make a trade or sign a guy later in the season due to injuries. One of these guys should be able to help as a depth guy if needed.

One guy I've mentioned as a possible help is Jaylin Clark. When I scouted him the year he was drafted I noted he had some ability to handle the ball and make smart plays with the ball. He isn't gonna be wildly breaking down defenses but seemed to have a feel for making some simple plays. He also has a post game and a floater so he has some touch which could also translate to lobs for guys like Rudy or the younger guys down the line. Below is a highlight from Jesse Edwards in Iowa last year. It's a nice video of Edwards Ballin in the way he can but something else jumped out at me.

https://youtu.be/vZGXbeb_7NI?si=UnBkoI0whm5mibx3

Clark has a few assists in this video and a couple times he is really handling the ball in a way that looks more like a ball handling wizard than a 3 and D guy. It's the G-league but still it's something.

Again I'm not expecting Clark to be the answer this season as a 2nd year guy but the guy does seem to have a super high BBIQ which is exactly what you want from a guy playing as some sort of PG. NAW had a lot more NBA experience before he arrived here but most people here weren't expecting him to arrive as the type of player he became. I suggested when he was acquired he could be the type of guy he has become. It's nice to je right sometimes because I'm wrong a lot. Ideally Clark is a guy that's simply good enough he forces his way on the court even when it might not make complete sense. Finch seems to like guys who are smart players and he isn't afraid to play guys that are unconventional. I think Clark could be a pretty big piece going forward for this roster. I think we might be a little surprised how much he plays this season if there is any kind of opening.

[rapsuperstar31]

Sign Dame to a two year min contract or TPMLE if need be. He misses most of the season and we still pay him, and hopefully he's back for the playoffs. We than have him cheap for the next season as well.

[rapsuperstar31]

Wonder what it would take to get Alvarado from the Pelicans. He would fit into our trade exception from trading NAW and would still keep us under the 2nd apron. A 2nd or two, or more?

[60WinTim]

Wonder what it would take to get Alvarado from the Pelicans. He would fit into our trade exception from trading NAW and would still keep us under the 2nd apron. A 2nd or two, or more?

My cap math says the Wolves have just over 5 mil left under the 2nd apron to fill the last two roster spots. There is basically little chance of filling those two roster spots with anything other than vet minimum players.

That means using the TMLE or trade exception is not going to happen. TC needs to wait out the remaining FAs as they decide there is no bigger money available for them, and have to play musical chairs for the last remain roster spots teams have to offer.

The Wolves situation is not appealing to FAs that want to play. But for those who are looking for a team that has a chance to contend, and a chance at playing time if called upon, the Wolves should look like a decent opportunity.

I'll say again, Bones Hyland could be a pretty good fit for the Wolves situation. His agent is hoping to find a team that might offer more than the vet minimum, because I doubt the Wolves will match it. The Wolves absolutely need to sign vet minimum players.

[WildWolf2813]

Trading Mike was never an option because Tim doesn't wanna go back on his word that he wouldn't move Conley.


Why is Tim here in the first place? Because we thought he could identify talent. Considering he traded so many picks to get Rudy, this is his big litmus test. Ant, Naz, Jaden all have one thing in common: none of them were Tim's guys. All of his success stories were guys he traded for or signed. NAW was his one story of rehabilitating someone and building him up to become a good player.

Time for Rob to get a fair shot. Most lotto picks get that chance.

[Lipoli390]

Trading Mike was never an option because Tim doesn't wanna go back on his word that he wouldn't move Conley.


Why is Tim here in the first place? Because we thought he could identify talent. Considering he traded so many picks to get Rudy, this is his big litmus test. Ant, Naz, Jaden all have one thing in common: none of them were Tim's guys. All of his success stories were guys he traded for or signed. NAW was his one story of rehabilitating someone and building him up to become a good player.

Time for Rob to get a fair shot. Most lotto picks get that chance.

I agree it’s time to give Rob his shot.

[FNG]

Good idea to have this as a separate thread, Lip.

Conley: Do I wish he was a few years younger? Of course. But do I think he can be a productive option at PG for one more season? Yes.

Rob: Do I wish he were older, taller and bigger? Of course. But do I think he can be a good backup to Mike at PG this season? I don't know. But I think he's way more ready now than a year ago having had the benefit of a year watching the NBA game, getting his feet wet with some playing time and working with the coaches in practice. Maybe he's even a little bigger. I think he will be fine, and maybe even very good.

So, my conclusion is we are better off at PG than we were a year ago. Mike was injured and hadn't played all summer, and Rob was totally untested. I think both will be better at the start of the season than they were last year, and I don't think we need to find a 3rd PG in free agency or trade.

I would like to see us get a defensive backup center though.

[Q-is-here]

Yeah, it is increasingly looking like Rob will either be the starter or at minimum the main backup to Conley, which by definition will mean more minutes than an average backup PG since Finch isn't playing Mike 30+ per night.

Whatever we get in the free agent market will likely play behind Dilly.

It appears that Connelly is making the pivot to the second window while keeping a fairly high floor in tact. But the team ceiling still seems Western Conference Finals at best. It will be fun to watch the young guys more, but it's an awkward fitting group in that the older guys play a more methodical brand of basketball and the younger guys can probably get out and run more and play a more aggressive defense. Ant tilts toward the older guys in terms of pace, but my guess is he would get out and run more if that became our identity.

[Wolvesfan21]

Good idea to have this as a separate thread, Lip.

Conley: Do I wish he was a few years younger? Of course. But do I think he can be a productive option at PG for one more season? Yes.

Rob: Do I wish he were older, taller and bigger? Of course. But do I think he can be a good backup to Mike at PG this season? I don't know. But I think he's way more ready now than a year ago having had the benefit of a year watching the NBA game, getting his feet wet with some playing time and working with the coaches in practice. Maybe he's even a little bigger. I think he will be fine, and maybe even very good.

So, my conclusion is we are better off at PG than we were a year ago. Mike was injured and hadn't played all summer, and Rob was totally untested. I think both will be better at the start of the season than they were last year, and I don't think we need to find a 3rd PG in free agency or trade.

I would like to see us get a defensive backup center though.

I'm not looking forward to Mike starting. He's OK but just OK. We need more from that spot if we're going to have any chance to contend. I'm hoping Dilly earns the job and we don't see Finch benching him or quitting on him if/when he makes mistakes.