Early thoughts about the rotation

[FNG]

In the 11th man thread, I divided the roster into categories: the remaining 7 from last year's starting 8, the 3 promising second year players, and Joan/Miller. I don't see Joe or player 14 (and maybe 15) worth discussing. This thread will flesh out as we get closer to the season, but it might be interesting to see how everyone thinks the rotation might be at the start of the season. We know Finchy basically played 8 guys last season, but has publicly said he expects to play more guys this season. I think he will, but he is what he is, and I think most nights he will be employing a 9-man rotation...still an expansion from last season. So, barring injuries, this is how I see things developing.

First and foremost, it seems like Shannon has separated himself from the other two sophomores and clearly established himself as NAW's replacement as joining Naz and Donte as certain to be part of the rotation. And as much as I loved NAW, there's a chance that TJ might even be an upgrade. He may not be quite the 3-point shooter NAW was, but his ability to get to the rim and his aggressiveness on fast breaks might make him a more potent offensive player than NAW. And I don't think his defense will be much of a drop off at all. NAW averaged 25 minutes per game last season, and I expect Shannon to replace 20-25 of those minutes. I love Clarks' defense and he will get some minutes in certain situations, but his lack of offense will likely leave him out of the regular 9-man rotation.

Instead I think the 9th man will be Rob. He has shown some flashes in the first 2 SL games along with some inconsistency, but it seems like Finchy is committed to playing him, and I'm fairly confident he will get 12-15 minutes backing up Mike with Donte also getting some run at PG.

Finally there is the big man rotation. Last year Finchy mostly rotated Rudy, Ju and Naz at C and PF, with occasional appearances by Jaden. I know there is a lot of excitement about Joan after his first 2 SL games, but I think Finchy will stay with almost exactly the same big man rotation as last year. I'm not 100% happy with that and we will again struggle defensively in the non-Rudy minutes...hopefully Naz will be better when forced to play center defensively. My logic here is not only Finchy's reluctance to play rookies and Joan's relative lack of basketball experience, but also what I heard on Dane Moore's podcast today. Kyle Thiege and Dane have been around the coaches the past few days in Vegas, and Kyle said on the pod that there was "no chance" of Joan being in the rotation this season. I was surprised at this, because both Kyle and Dane are very high on Joan's potential...as am I. And they may be wrong. But their point is that they have seen no offensive game from Joan, and that he has a lot to learn. And I also think their take is likely based on what they are hearing from the coaches. I agree with their take, but it will be interesting to see who Finchy turns to if one of his core three bigs misses some time with injuries.

How do others see the rotation potentially taking shape at this way-too-early stage of the offseeaon?

[Q-is-here]

Here is what I think it will look like to start the season. That doesn't necessarily mean it will stay this way:

PG - Conley, Dillingham
SG - Ant, DDV, Clark
SF - Jaden, Shannon
PF - Randle, Reid
C - Rudy, Beringer

The green represents the core 9-man rotation, meaning these guys play pretty much every game and in both halves. The blue represents the 10th man and will depend on matchups. They may play two stints or one brief stint in any given game, but will also be DNP-CD for a lot of games.

Things that could change (excluding injuries or trades):

1. Conley ineffective as starting PG, in which case DDV or Dillingham will be promoted to start.

2. Beringer elbows his way (figuratively speaking) into the regular big rotation because the coaches just can't keep him off the court any longer. It won't be for extended timeframes, but perhaps he forces Finch to go to a 10 man rotation every game and he increasingly spells Rudy.

[Coolbreeze44]

The biggest problem I see is one I have been consistent on. As some of us have said, Randle blocks Jaden's development as an offensive player. But now he also blocks Beringer's path to the court. I don't understand why Julius is back and it sticks out even more with the addition of Joan. This team needs ball handling so bad, and I really hope they use Randle to go get someone that can help with that.

[D-Loser25]

The biggest problem I see is one I have been consistent on. As some of us have said, Randle blocks Jaden's development as an offensive player. But now he also blocks Beringer's path to the court. I don't understand why Julius is back and it sticks out even more with the addition of Joan. This team needs ball handling so bad, and I really hope they use Randle to go get someone that can help with that.

Exactly. Jaden needs more opportunity on the offensive end and I think Naz, Jaden, and Shannon can be a good 3 man rotation at the two forward spots. Randle just sticks out like a sore thumb on this team… he doesn’t fit.

I mean besides Randle, I’m pretty happy with our roster overall. I just think we’re paying big bucks to one too many guys right now and Randle is the obvious one to go. Heck, you could even give Miller a chance to fill some of his minutes. I’m not a big Miller fan, but I think he’s at the point where he maybe deserves a chance. Unless Randle is a trade chip, I really have no idea why we resigned him. I get that we don’t want to just give up his money slot, but if we let him go, we could have then used the full mle or TMlE and we’d find ways to spend the money eventually (this year or next)

I still hope something is coming this summer. We need more ball handling because if Conley gets hurt or drops off a cliff and Dilly just isn’t ready, we’re totally screwed. We’re not competing at the highest level this year without more ball handling and wasn’t that the only real reason for resigning Randle (to remain competitive this year)

Let’s go TC… you’re doing well, but it’s time to offload Randle for a rotation guard and a rotation big.

[Monster]

The biggest problem I see is one I have been consistent on. As some of us have said, Randle blocks Jaden's development as an offensive player. But now he also blocks Beringer's path to the court. I don't understand why Julius is back and it sticks out even more with the addition of Joan. This team needs ball handling so bad, and I really hope they use Randle to go get someone that can help with that.

Exactly. Jaden needs more opportunity on the offensive end and I think Naz, Jaden, and Shannon can be a good 3 man rotation at the two forward spots. Randle just sticks out like a sore thumb on this team… he doesn’t fit.

I mean besides Randle, I’m pretty happy with our roster overall. I just think we’re paying big bucks to one too many guys right now and Randle is the obvious one to go. Heck, you could even give Miller a chance to fill some of his minutes. I’m not a big Miller fan, but I think he’s at the point where he maybe deserves a chance. Unless Randle is a trade chip, I really have no idea why we resigned him. I get that we don’t want to just give up his money slot, but if we let him go, we could have then used the full mle or TMlE and we’d find ways to spend the money eventually (this year or next)

I still hope something is coming this summer. We need more ball handling because if Conley gets hurt or drops off a cliff and Dilly just isn’t ready, we’re totally screwed. We’re not competing at the highest level this year without more ball handling and wasn’t that the only real reason for resigning Randle (to remain competitive this year)

Let’s go TC… you’re doing well, but it’s time to offload Randle for a rotation guard and a rotation big.

I would not get your hopes up about a Randle trade this summer. I could see some sort of other move being made still and there are still some worthwhile FAs out there.

I have a question for you. Are you a believer in Dillingham?

[D-Loser25]

The biggest problem I see is one I have been consistent on. As some of us have said, Randle blocks Jaden's development as an offensive player. But now he also blocks Beringer's path to the court. I don't understand why Julius is back and it sticks out even more with the addition of Joan. This team needs ball handling so bad, and I really hope they use Randle to go get someone that can help with that.

Exactly. Jaden needs more opportunity on the offensive end and I think Naz, Jaden, and Shannon can be a good 3 man rotation at the two forward spots. Randle just sticks out like a sore thumb on this team… he doesn’t fit.

I mean besides Randle, I’m pretty happy with our roster overall. I just think we’re paying big bucks to one too many guys right now and Randle is the obvious one to go. Heck, you could even give Miller a chance to fill some of his minutes. I’m not a big Miller fan, but I think he’s at the point where he maybe deserves a chance. Unless Randle is a trade chip, I really have no idea why we resigned him. I get that we don’t want to just give up his money slot, but if we let him go, we could have then used the full mle or TMlE and we’d find ways to spend the money eventually (this year or next)

I still hope something is coming this summer. We need more ball handling because if Conley gets hurt or drops off a cliff and Dilly just isn’t ready, we’re totally screwed. We’re not competing at the highest level this year without more ball handling and wasn’t that the only real reason for resigning Randle (to remain competitive this year)

Let’s go TC… you’re doing well, but it’s time to offload Randle for a rotation guard and a rotation big.

I would not get your hopes up about a Randle trade this summer. I could see some sort of other move being made still and there are still some worthwhile FAs out there.

I have a question for you. Are you a believer in Dillingham?

I am, I think we have 3 great prospects and he’s one of them. I’m really excited to watch all 3 develop. Clark is interesting too, but he’s just not there for me with the other 3. I think these 3 will be starters in two years along with Jaden and Ant and oh boy, look out for that team in two years. I think Dilly is a good compliment to Ant. He’s already a knock down long range shooter, but he absolutely needs to improve at the rim. Dilly also seems like a good kid who’s very coachable. I’ll be pulling for him.

How about you?

[Monster]

Exactly. Jaden needs more opportunity on the offensive end and I think Naz, Jaden, and Shannon can be a good 3 man rotation at the two forward spots. Randle just sticks out like a sore thumb on this team… he doesn’t fit.

I mean besides Randle, I’m pretty happy with our roster overall. I just think we’re paying big bucks to one too many guys right now and Randle is the obvious one to go. Heck, you could even give Miller a chance to fill some of his minutes. I’m not a big Miller fan, but I think he’s at the point where he maybe deserves a chance. Unless Randle is a trade chip, I really have no idea why we resigned him. I get that we don’t want to just give up his money slot, but if we let him go, we could have then used the full mle or TMlE and we’d find ways to spend the money eventually (this year or next)

I still hope something is coming this summer. We need more ball handling because if Conley gets hurt or drops off a cliff and Dilly just isn’t ready, we’re totally screwed. We’re not competing at the highest level this year without more ball handling and wasn’t that the only real reason for resigning Randle (to remain competitive this year)

Let’s go TC… you’re doing well, but it’s time to offload Randle for a rotation guard and a rotation big.

I would not get your hopes up about a Randle trade this summer. I could see some sort of other move being made still and there are still some worthwhile FAs out there.

I have a question for you. Are you a believer in Dillingham?

I am, I think we have 3 great prospects and he’s one of them. I’m really excited to watch all 3 develop. Clark is interesting too, but he’s just not there for me with the other 3. I think these 3 will be starters in two years along with Jaden and Ant and oh boy, look out for that team in two years. I think Dilly is a good compliment to Ant. He’s already a knock down long range shooter, but he absolutely needs to improve at the rim. Dilly also seems like a good kid who’s very coachable. I’ll be pulling for him.

How about you?

Thanks for the response. My take on Dillingham is clouded by the fact that I didn't see him play as much the 2nd half or so of the season as many here on the board did. That makes me a little hesitant to say I'm all in on him or whatever. To me he looks like a really talented guy that's willing to what he needs to do to get better but can he put it together? I tend to think he will but obviously it's far from certain he does. I think the best way to decide how I feel about him is thinking about trading him away. I don't think he will turn into a SGA level of player but I don't think I would want to trade him for say a Derrick White especially because it would likely take additional assets. I also tend to have faith in Connelly so if he is believing as much as it seems he does in Dillingham I'm gonna roll with that. Connelly has also shown ability to make a different move if his plan didn't work out.

So we both like Dillingham. If the Wolves traded Randle for a guard how would you feel about that possibly meaning Dillingham struggling to get minutes this year? How confident are you that Miller or Joan can give minutes at forward if Naz got hurt?

There are still 5-7 ball handling guards available in FA that would be plenty worthwhile to add to the roster and those guys would be signing for the vet min. The options for front court guys are becoming more slim pickings and it seems unlikely some of the better/intriguing players would sign here based on the opportunity. Ben Simmons would certainly be interesting if we had a need at PF...but then again maybe just bring back Kyle Anderson instead since I'm guessing he is pretty available.

Let's enjoy SL and see if there is any other young players that pop for 2-way guys or otherwise. Then let's see what the rest of FA brings. Maybe Connelly convinces Monte Morris to sign here and gives the Wolves a steady ball handler and shooter in case they need him. I'm not expecting that to happen but it's not wildly far fetched either. I wouldn't hate Dennis Smith Jr as an end of the bench defensive PG. Maybe the Wolves find the next McLaughlin or Caruso or Pippen Jr or TJ McConnell. All those guys helped early in their careers it didn't take them years to develop.

[FNG]

Here is what I think it will look like to start the season. That doesn't necessarily mean it will stay this way:

PG - Conley, Dillingham
SG - Ant, DDV, Clark
SF - Jaden, Shannon
PF - Randle, Reid
C - Rudy, Beringer

The green represents the core 9-man rotation, meaning these guys play pretty much every game and in both halves. The blue represents the 10th man and will depend on matchups. They may play two stints or one brief stint in any given game, but will also be DNP-CD for a lot of games.

Things that could change (excluding injuries or trades):

1. Conley ineffective as starting PG, in which case DDV or Dillingham will be promoted to start.

2. Beringer elbows his way (figuratively speaking) into the regular big rotation because the coaches just can't keep him off the court any longer. It won't be for extended timeframes, but perhaps he forces Finch to go to a 10 man rotation every game and he increasingly spells Rudy.

Yeah, I think this is a good analysis...to start the season, Finchie expands slightly to a 9-man rotation, and Clark and/or Joan see the court situationally. I would be surprised if either of your two possibilities happens though. Conley started the season slowly last year, but finished strong. I find it unlikely that his play will drop off enough to allow either Donte or Rob to replace him in the starting lineup. But if Rob shows that he is ready to start for a contending team, we will be that much better this year. Similarly Kyle Thiege's pod comments tell me the coaches don't think Joan will see much playing time this year. But again, if he surprises and shows that at age 19 he's ready for regular minutes, we will be much better than last year. My gut feel is that Rob and especially Joan still need a lot of seasoning, but I would love it if either or both exceeded my expectations this year.

[FNG]

The biggest problem I see is one I have been consistent on. As some of us have said, Randle blocks Jaden's development as an offensive player. But now he also blocks Beringer's path to the court. I don't understand why Julius is back and it sticks out even more with the addition of Joan. This team needs ball handling so bad, and I really hope they use Randle to go get someone that can help with that.

Cool, expand on your take that Randle blocks Jaden's development as an offensive player. We traded for Ju last year, and Jaden ended up having his best offensive season, so I'm trying to understand why Ju hurts him offensively. Jaden had career best averages in FGA, PPG, RPG and APG, despite the Wolves having two 20+ PPG scorers. Ju's ability to get into the paint and then find the open man in the corner for a trey is exactly what Jaden needs to increase his scoring. The only thing that held Jaden back last season was his inability to hit the open trey...he shot only 33% on 3's last season and only 33.5% on corner threes...both well under league average. Jaden is a hard worker and is improving every season, so I suspect he is taking thousands of corner threes this summer. Ant developed as a facilitator during the season (remember how many times he found Jaden wide open in the corner in the last game of the season against OkC, but Jaden missed the shot?), so he, Ju and Mike are going to continue to find Jaden open in the corner. If Jaden can just get up to league average on his corner threes, he easily becomes a 16PPG scorer, and that would be really good for a 3rd option on a team that already has two guys averaging over 20. And if defenses have to respect his 3-point shooting (like OkC didn't) he will have much more success getting to the rim like we saw him do during the season. Ju was a much more efficient scorer than Jaden last season (59.3 TS% compared to Jaden's 56.2), so I don't think the coaches want Jaden taking away shots from Ant and Ju. But Jaden will continue to get good looks as a 3rd option out there...he just needs to make the shots, and he'll continue to develop.

[Q-is-here]

The biggest problem I see is one I have been consistent on. As some of us have said, Randle blocks Jaden's development as an offensive player. But now he also blocks Beringer's path to the court. I don't understand why Julius is back and it sticks out even more with the addition of Joan. This team needs ball handling so bad, and I really hope they use Randle to go get someone that can help with that.

Cool, expand on your take that Randle blocks Jaden's development as an offensive player. We traded for Ju last year, and Jaden ended up having his best offensive season, so I'm trying to understand why Ju hurts him offensively. Jaden had career best averages in FGA, PPG, RPG and APG, despite the Wolves having two 20+ PPG scorers. Ju's ability to get into the paint and then find the open man in the corner for a trey is exactly what Jaden needs to increase his scoring. The only thing that held Jaden back last season was his inability to hit the open trey...he shot only 33% on 3's last season and only 33.5% on corner threes...both well under league average. Jaden is a hard worker and is improving every season, so I suspect he is taking thousands of corner threes this summer. Ant developed as a facilitator during the season (remember how many times he found Jaden wide open in the corner in the last game of the season against OkC, but Jaden missed the shot?), so he, Ju and Mike are going to continue to find Jaden open in the corner. If Jaden can just get up to league average on his corner threes, he easily becomes a 16PPG scorer, and that would be really good for a 3rd option on a team that already has two guys averaging over 20. And if defenses have to respect his 3-point shooting (like OkC didn't) he will have much more success getting to the rim like we saw him do during the season. Ju was a much more efficient scorer than Jaden last season (59.3 TS% compared to Jaden's 56.2), so I don't think the coaches want Jaden taking away shots from Ant and Ju. But Jaden will continue to get good looks as a 3rd option out there...he just needs to make the shots, and he'll continue to develop.

I'm sure Cool has his own reasons which he will expound upon, but I will answer this question from my perspective.

I disagree with your view that what Julius brings as a paint penetrator and kickout artist is exactly what Jaden needs. He actually requires the same space as Julius to maximize his scoring effectiveness, as Jaden has developed into a deadly mid-range 2 point shooter, hitting 54% of his 10-16 foot shots last year. Guess who else likes that shot but is less accurate at it?

Jaden averaged nearly 19 PPG and 9 rebounds in the month of March when Julius was out. Every other month he either averaged single digits or low teens. Julius CLEARLY takes shots away from Jaden.

Now perhaps in the very short term, folks might be OK with that. After all, we've made two consecutive trips to the WCF with Jaden starting at SF next to a scoring PF and he's performed well in those playoffs. But if we look forward, are we really making full use of Jaden's talents if he continues to be primarily a POA defender and floor spacer? I think he's outgrowing that role, both literally and figuratively.

If Randle gets moved, it allows us to open up more space for Ant AND Jaden since presumably Reid would then get promoted to starting PF. He prefers shots from beyond the arc or around the rim. I mean, he almost NEVER takes shots between 10 feet and the 3-point line.

The other thing this does is allow Jaden to spend more time at the 4 and therefore it opens up even more minutes for Shannon to spend at the 3. Things just fit better and it's also a more modern-day lineup in terms of space and pace.