Hollinger Prediction: Wolves 49-33, #5 in the West

[Sundog]

Here’s his take —

5. Minnesota Timberwolves (49-33)

The Wolves finished sixth in the West last season with 49 wins. When I ran my numbers for this year, I was surprised to learn that Minnesota was projected to finish here.

Yes, the broad outlines are largely the same — the Wolves are tough, big, expensive and not that deep, and they’re once again counting on their top eight players to cover nearly all 48 minutes every night. That formula is always a hazardous one for the regular-season grind, and it could leave the Wolves behind their rivals in the playoff seedings. However, once we shift into playoff mode, the script shifts: Minnesota can boast a relatively weak-link-free top seven that makes it difficult for opponents to exploit advantages.

First, let’s talk about the new furniture. Minnesota had three key free agents this summer and realistically could only keep two of them, between Julius Randle, Naz Reid and Nickeil Alexander-Walker. The decision to part with Alexander-Walker over Reid, even with Reid’s higher price tag, likely came down to replaceability. With Minnesota pressed up against the second apron, there was no plausible rotation-caliber big man who could come close to filling Reid’s hybrid role between both frontcourt spots.

On the other hand, Minnesota has spent the last couple of years developing alternatives to Alexander-Walker’s minutes, and it’s time to see whether that investment can bear fruit. In particular, Terrance Shannon Jr. provided some jolts of energy in his rare playoff cameos as a rookie and seems primed to take over the eighth spot in the rotation.

At point guard, 2024 lottery pick Rob Dillingham wasn’t as impactful as a rookie and will need to show progress as a playmaker in particular to justify court time at his size. However, he may be needed sooner rather than later with Mike Conley turning 38 and on an expiring deal. (Fun side note: Only 10 players in NBA history have played 20 seasons, and all of them were 6-foot-5 or taller. Chris Paul this year, and Conley, if he’s still playing next year, would be the 11th and 12th at 6-foot and 175 pounds each.)

Minnesota has a couple of other wing options that give it a floor of sorts; Johnny Juzang can make shots and is replacement-level at worst, while Jaylen Clark’s defense could make him a more regular contributor. First-round pick Joan Beringer is a developmental player at the center spot who seems unlikely to contribute this season.

However, the Wolves’ big picture remains the same: They’re basically locked in with this group. The Wolves are just $1.3 million from the second apron. While they aren’t hard-capped at the moment, they also seem unlikely to go over and freeze their 2033 first-round pick, not when their 2032 first is already frozen and they may need at least one of those picks to make any roster moves after this season.

Trading in-season will be a challenge. The Wolves don’t control any tradeable firsts, and none of their young players would generate much interest on the market. Theoretically, the Wolves could use Conley’s expiring contract and second-round picks to get … something? … but that would only be a compelling scenario if the Wolves had Dillingham ready to go, which seemed miles away from reality last spring.

They’ll run it back, because what else can they do? The Wolves are simultaneously almost guaranteed to be good and almost equally guaranteed to be not quite good enough. Diehards can tempt themselves with a scenario where Anthony Edwards goes supernova, Rudy Gobert and Conley hold off Father Time another year and the Thunder step on a few rakes. But the more likely scenario is that the Wolves are holding serve this year to get to a more interesting — but still apron-compliant — roster a year from now.

[Coolbreeze44]

Two Things:

1) We are certainly not good enough to get out of the West, so I largely agree with Hollinger. If everything goes right we could probably improve slightly. Not everything will go right.

2) I've always been a TC guy, so I have to be a little careful when i say this. I think he obtained good value in the draft like he usually does. But when a proven 2nd class roster is positioned to run it back, how often does that team make a big leap? It just doesn't happen, especially when you are dealing with age at key spots. And then we have the Julius problem. He will look great on some nights and we will jump on here and proclaim how essential he is. But he will also have some horrific games and will surely have at least one impactful injury. All this while being a ball stopper and blocking the development of Jaden, TSJ, and to a certain extent NAZ. I love the Wolves but can't escape skepticism right now.

[60WinTim]

Two Things:

1) We are certainly not good enough to get out of the West, so I largely agree with Hollinger. If everything goes right we could probably improve slightly. Not everything will go right.

2) I've always been a TC guy, so I have to be a little careful when i say this. I think he obtained good value in the draft like he usually does. But when a proven 2nd class roster is positioned to run it back, how often does that team make a big leap? It just doesn't happen, especially when you are dealing with age at key spots. And then we have the Julius problem. He will look great on some nights and we will jump on here and proclaim how essential he is. But he will also have some horrific games and will surely have at least one impactful injury. All this while being a ball stopper and blocking the development of Jaden, TSJ, and to a certain extent NAZ. I love the Wolves but can't escape skepticism right now.

This is consistent with your perspective on this team: ANT ain't the guy to lead a championship team, and Randle is just an impediment to our young guys. So, not surprising you and Hollinger have the "glass half empty" view. Fortunately, there are a few of us with the "glass half full" perspective. ANT and Randle CAN BE your two best players on a championship team. And our growth from within will help move the needle, even in a matchup with the Thunder.

[Coolbreeze44]

Two Things:

1) We are certainly not good enough to get out of the West, so I largely agree with Hollinger. If everything goes right we could probably improve slightly. Not everything will go right.

2) I've always been a TC guy, so I have to be a little careful when i say this. I think he obtained good value in the draft like he usually does. But when a proven 2nd class roster is positioned to run it back, how often does that team make a big leap? It just doesn't happen, especially when you are dealing with age at key spots. And then we have the Julius problem. He will look great on some nights and we will jump on here and proclaim how essential he is. But he will also have some horrific games and will surely have at least one impactful injury. All this while being a ball stopper and blocking the development of Jaden, TSJ, and to a certain extent NAZ. I love the Wolves but can't escape skepticism right now.

This is consistent with your perspective on this team: ANT ain't the guy to lead a championship team, and Randle is just an impediment to our young guys. So, not surprising you and Hollinger have the "glass half empty" view. Fortunately, there are a few of us with the "glass half full" perspective. ANT and Randle CAN BE your two best players on a championship team. And our growth from within will help move the needle, even in a matchup with the Thunder.

Tim, I'd rather be wrong than right. Ant has a chance to lead a team to a title, but it wasn't going to be last year and I'd bet money it won't be this year. Julius is a problem. He's not good enough to overcome the issues he causes with this team. We need a point guard so bad, I'm really surprised he wasn't used to get one.

[D-Loser25]

Two Things:

1) We are certainly not good enough to get out of the West, so I largely agree with Hollinger. If everything goes right we could probably improve slightly. Not everything will go right.

2) I've always been a TC guy, so I have to be a little careful when i say this. I think he obtained good value in the draft like he usually does. But when a proven 2nd class roster is positioned to run it back, how often does that team make a big leap? It just doesn't happen, especially when you are dealing with age at key spots. And then we have the Julius problem. He will look great on some nights and we will jump on here and proclaim how essential he is. But he will also have some horrific games and will surely have at least one impactful injury. All this while being a ball stopper and blocking the development of Jaden, TSJ, and to a certain extent NAZ. I love the Wolves but can't escape skepticism right now.

This is consistent with your perspective on this team: ANT ain't the guy to lead a championship team, and Randle is just an impediment to our young guys. So, not surprising you and Hollinger have the "glass half empty" view. Fortunately, there are a few of us with the "glass half full" perspective. ANT and Randle CAN BE your two best players on a championship team. And our growth from within will help move the needle, even in a matchup with the Thunder.

Tim, I'd rather be wrong than right. Ant has a chance to lead a team to a title, but it wasn't going to be last year and I'd bet money it won't be this year. Julius is a problem. He's not good enough to overcome the issues he causes with this team. We need a point guard so bad, I'm really surprised he wasn't used to get one.

I agree that Randle is a problem but I think he will still be used to trade for a PG eventually. I don’t think there’s any harm running it back to start the year, seeing which young guys develop and see what kind of deals materialize. I would have never given him that contract, but I’ll trust it’s a pretty trade able deal. Was there really any alternative plan that would have lifted us up to the contender level with OKC… I don’t think so. I don’t like Randle. I would prefer a starting lineup of Rudy, Jaden, TJ, Edwards, DDV, but let’s see what happens.

[D-Loser25]

Also just want to say that TJ Shannon is going to be a star (ala Jalen Williams) - I, along with others, saw this early last year. Maybe TC is counting on that alone to put us over the top. Randle can be dealt later for need/depth…

[WildWolf2813]

Two Things:

1) We are certainly not good enough to get out of the West, so I largely agree with Hollinger. If everything goes right we could probably improve slightly. Not everything will go right.

2) I've always been a TC guy, so I have to be a little careful when i say this. I think he obtained good value in the draft like he usually does. But when a proven 2nd class roster is positioned to run it back, how often does that team make a big leap? It just doesn't happen, especially when you are dealing with age at key spots. And then we have the Julius problem. He will look great on some nights and we will jump on here and proclaim how essential he is. But he will also have some horrific games and will surely have at least one impactful injury. All this while being a ball stopper and blocking the development of Jaden, TSJ, and to a certain extent NAZ. I love the Wolves but can't escape skepticism right now.

This is consistent with your perspective on this team: ANT ain't the guy to lead a championship team, and Randle is just an impediment to our young guys. So, not surprising you and Hollinger have the "glass half empty" view. Fortunately, there are a few of us with the "glass half full" perspective. ANT and Randle CAN BE your two best players on a championship team. And our growth from within will help move the needle, even in a matchup with the Thunder.

Tim, I'd rather be wrong than right. Ant has a chance to lead a team to a title, but it wasn't going to be last year and I'd bet money it won't be this year. Julius is a problem. He's not good enough to overcome the issues he causes with this team. We need a point guard so bad, I'm really surprised he wasn't used to get one.

Because nobody wanted Randle that badly.