The top 6 in the West

[FNG]

The top 6 are doing a good job of separating themselves from the rest of the pack (although I predict Dallas will challenge for the top 6 if AD can stay healthy, especially with the emergence of Flagg and Nembhard), and I wanted to see how they stack up in offensive and defensive ratings. Although OkC and Houston are dominant on defense, offense seems to be more important...the top 6 occupy 6 of the top 8 offensive ratings in the Association. Here are the rankings: Net rating, ORtg, DRtg

Thunder: 1, 5, 1
Rockets: 2, 3, 3
Nuggets: 3, 1, 17
Wolves: 7, 6, 10
Spurs: 8, 7, 14
Lakers: 14, 8, 20

Not too many surprises here, and I agree that the Wolves are 4th best in the West right now.

Kyle Theige suggested wary Wolves fans spend some time reading chat boards of other teams...just like here, everyone is quick to point out the flaws in their team. I think I'll spend an hour doing that later today.

[Q-is-here]

The Lakers seemingly win all of their close games, thus their record is better than their statistical "Expected Wins", which would put them at 14-11. Really hoping they start regressing to the mean.

The Wolves have done a waaaaaay better job this season beating the teams they are supposed to beat. It hasn't been perfect or pretty all the time, but it's a lot better than last year. Now we need to start notching some more wins against tougher competition.

[Phenom]

This is the reality. Most fans hate a few aspects of their team. Whenever the Wolves win the opposing teams fans loathe how their team blew it, just like we do. Most teams complain about their coach's decisions. Being top 6 is not nothing.

[Coolbreeze44]

The Lakers seemingly win all of their close games, thus their record is better than their statistical "Expected Wins", which would put them at 14-11. Really hoping they start regressing to the mean.

The Wolves have done a waaaaaay better job this season beating the teams they are supposed to beat. It hasn't been perfect or pretty all the time, but it's a lot better than last year. Now we need to start notching some more wins against tougher competition.

I haven't checked this year, but is free throw disparity one reason the Lakers are winning their close games? I'm still very impressed how the Wolves took care of them in the playoffs last year. I didn't think the league would let it happen but I was wrong. I hope someone kicks the shit out of them again this year.

[AbeVigodaLive]

The Lakers seemingly win all of their close games, thus their record is better than their statistical "Expected Wins", which would put them at 14-11. Really hoping they start regressing to the mean.

The Wolves have done a waaaaaay better job this season beating the teams they are supposed to beat. It hasn't been perfect or pretty all the time, but it's a lot better than last year. Now we need to start notching some more wins against tougher competition.

A couple of things:

- A top 10 rating on both offense and defense is a surefire sign that a team is legit... potentially as a Finals team.
- And that makes the 2014 Wolves (discussed previously) such a goofy team. That team was a top 10 team on both sides until the last week of the season... and finished 40 - 42. Almost unheard of. The team Expected W/L was 48 - 34.
- And that nugget brings me to the Los Angeles Lakers. I've shared the exact numbers before... but no NBA team is remotely close to surpassing its Expected W/L total as often or as much as the Lakers.

Lakers Expected W/L in recent PLAYOFF seasons (seems relevant):

+3 this season already.
+6 last season
+5 in 2024
+1 in 2023
= in 2021 (72 games)
+4 in 2020
+2 in 2017
+1 in 2013
+5 in 2012 (66 games)
Total: +27 in playoff seasons. (+24 in all seasons since 2012) Never more than -2 in any season, including 55+-loss seasons since 2000.
- The Lakers were the league leader in exceeding their Expected Wins multiple times.

Conversely... Minnesota:

= this season
-4 last season
-1 in 2024
+1 in 2023
-2 in 2022
-1 in 2021
-5 in 2020
-1 in 2019
= in 2018
-7 in 2017
-2 in 2016
-3 in 2015
-8 in 2014
-3 in 2013
-2 in 2012
Total: -38 (only one + season... and only by 1 game)

__________________________________________________

Is this some sort of statistical anomaly/miracle? Ahem, ahem... do you guys want me to share free throw data (especially late in seasons when the Lakers were facing missing the playoffs)? It's pretty damn telling.

Also important to remember... this period for both teams represents both really good and really bad seasons for both teams. Different coaches. Different players. Different management groups. Heck... different ownership groups.

But there's still a consistency to it, right? Again, statistical anomaly or pretty damn telling?

____________________________________________________

Just another entirely random and totally not meaningful stat at all...

- Since 2022...

The Lakers have taken 1,460 more FTAs than their opponents. The next team on the list is +699. Regardless of who's playing for the lakers or not... or who's coaching them... they just consistently get fouled more while fouling a lot less than every other NBA team.

[Coolbreeze44]

The Lakers seemingly win all of their close games, thus their record is better than their statistical "Expected Wins", which would put them at 14-11. Really hoping they start regressing to the mean.

The Wolves have done a waaaaaay better job this season beating the teams they are supposed to beat. It hasn't been perfect or pretty all the time, but it's a lot better than last year. Now we need to start notching some more wins against tougher competition.

A couple of things:

- A top 10 rating on both offense and defense is a surefire sign that a team is legit... potentially as a Finals team.
- And that makes the 2014 Wolves (discussed previously) such a goofy team. That team was a top 10 team on both sides until the last week of the season... and finished 40 - 42. Almost unheard of. The team Expected W/L was 48 - 34.
- And that nugget brings me to the Los Angeles Lakers. I've shared the exact numbers before... but no NBA team is remotely close to surpassing its Expected W/L total as often or as much as the Lakers.

Lakers Expected W/L in recent PLAYOFF seasons (seems relevant):

+3 this season already.
+6 last season
+5 in 2024
+1 in 2023
= in 2021 (72 games)
+4 in 2020
+2 in 2017
+1 in 2013
+5 in 2012 (66 games)
Total: +27 in playoff seasons. (+24 in all seasons since 2012) Never more than -2 in any season, including 55+-loss seasons since 2000.
- The Lakers were the league leader in exceeding their Expected Wins multiple times.

Conversely... Minnesota:

= this season
-4 last season
-1 in 2024
+1 in 2023
-2 in 2022
-1 in 2021
-5 in 2020
-1 in 2019
= in 2018
-7 in 2017
-2 in 2016
-3 in 2015
-8 in 2014
-3 in 2013
-2 in 2012
Total: -38 (only one + season... and only by 1 game)

__________________________________________________

Is this some sort of statistical anomaly/miracle? Ahem, ahem... do you guys want me to share free throw data (especially late in seasons when the Lakers were facing missing the playoffs)? It's pretty damn telling.

Also important to remember... this period for both teams represents both really good and really bad seasons for both teams. Different coaches. Different players. Different management groups. Heck... different ownership groups.

But there's still a consistency to it, right? Again, statistical anomaly or pretty damn telling?

____________________________________________________

Just another entirely random and totally not meaningful stat at all...

- Since 2022...

The Lakers have taken 1,460 more FTAs than their opponents. The next team on the list is +699. Regardless of who's playing for the lakers or not... or who's coaching them... they just consistently get fouled more while fouling a lot less than every other NBA team.

Thanks for the good information Abe - But yeah, really frustrating.

[FNG]

Ant out again tonight. I'm not unhappy with the decision. As I've said before, the Wolves are much more fun for me to watch when Ant is out. And also, I could see him being motivated to beat OkC Friday night, and some effort on the defensive side would help us. Another couple days resting the foot has to help. I'm guessing he plays Friday.

Meanwhile, we're in the Bones Zone!

[Q-is-here]

The Lakers seemingly win all of their close games, thus their record is better than their statistical "Expected Wins", which would put them at 14-11. Really hoping they start regressing to the mean.

The Wolves have done a waaaaaay better job this season beating the teams they are supposed to beat. It hasn't been perfect or pretty all the time, but it's a lot better than last year. Now we need to start notching some more wins against tougher competition.

A couple of things:

- A top 10 rating on both offense and defense is a surefire sign that a team is legit... potentially as a Finals team.
- And that makes the 2014 Wolves (discussed previously) such a goofy team. That team was a top 10 team on both sides until the last week of the season... and finished 40 - 42. Almost unheard of. The team Expected W/L was 48 - 34.
- And that nugget brings me to the Los Angeles Lakers. I've shared the exact numbers before... but no NBA team is remotely close to surpassing its Expected W/L total as often or as much as the Lakers.

Lakers Expected W/L in recent PLAYOFF seasons (seems relevant):

+3 this season already.
+6 last season
+5 in 2024
+1 in 2023
= in 2021 (72 games)
+4 in 2020
+2 in 2017
+1 in 2013
+5 in 2012 (66 games)
Total: +27 in playoff seasons. (+24 in all seasons since 2012) Never more than -2 in any season, including 55+-loss seasons since 2000.
- The Lakers were the league leader in exceeding their Expected Wins multiple times.

Conversely... Minnesota:

= this season
-4 last season
-1 in 2024
+1 in 2023
-2 in 2022
-1 in 2021
-5 in 2020
-1 in 2019
= in 2018
-7 in 2017
-2 in 2016
-3 in 2015
-8 in 2014
-3 in 2013
-2 in 2012
Total: -38 (only one + season... and only by 1 game)

__________________________________________________

Is this some sort of statistical anomaly/miracle? Ahem, ahem... do you guys want me to share free throw data (especially late in seasons when the Lakers were facing missing the playoffs)? It's pretty damn telling.

Also important to remember... this period for both teams represents both really good and really bad seasons for both teams. Different coaches. Different players. Different management groups. Heck... different ownership groups.

But there's still a consistency to it, right? Again, statistical anomaly or pretty damn telling?

____________________________________________________

Just another entirely random and totally not meaningful stat at all...

- Since 2022...

The Lakers have taken 1,460 more FTAs than their opponents. The next team on the list is +699. Regardless of who's playing for the lakers or not... or who's coaching them... they just consistently get fouled more while fouling a lot less than every other NBA team.

Ha, this is quite the analysis Abe! It certainly answer's Cool's question.

I looked at a sample of four current and former LAL players with a decent body of work with other teams to compare their free throw rate and foul rate to see if they got special treatment with the Lakers. The results are mixed:

LeBron Cleveland Career Average versus first three years Lakers Average per 100 possessions:
FTAs = 11.0 vs. 8.7
PFs = 2.6 vs. 2.3

Anthony Davis Pelicans Career vs. Lakers Career
FTAs = 10.0 vs. 10.1
PFs = 3.4 vs. 3.2

Jaxson Hayes Pelicans Career vs. Lakers Career
FTAs = 6.9 vs. 4.4
PFs = 5.7 vs. 6.1

DeAndre Ayton Portland Career vs. Lakers this Season:
FTAs = 2.3 vs. 2.7
PFs = 3.2 vs. 4.4

Luka Doncic Mavericks Career vs. Lakers this Season:
FTAs = 11.5 vs. 13.9
PFs = 3.2 vs. 3.4



It's a mixed bag.....

Luka so far seems to be the biggest beneficiary of a biased whistle, but he doesn't have a big sample size yet. On the other hand, he's getting a slighly worse whistle in terms of fouling.

For LeBron I just used his first three years with the Lakers since he was still an MVP-caliber player then. His FTAs would have been even lower with LAL if I had included his entire career with them.

Not much difference with ADs numbers.

Ayton gets a tick more FTAs but also gets called for a lot more fouls.

Hayes has done worse in both categories since becoming a Laker.

I can't look at a guy like Reaves since he's only played for LAL. But let's face it, anyone who saw him play the Wolves earlier this season has to recognize that he's actually a really good shot creator with a lot of change of speed/direction in his bag, some of which is a little grift-y, but not out of line by NBA standards (Harden, SGA, etc.).

So I don't know....Your analysis is shocking in one sense, but then when you start looking at the players that have played with different teams, it's hard to say they get a big benefit from playing in L.A.

I think part of this is the way the NBA is officiated and the types of players the Lakers have had on their squad. They tend to always be a veteran team that doesn't play super physical and guys like LeBron, AD, and Doncic shoot a lot of free throws no matter where they play.

[AbeVigodaLive]

The Lakers seemingly win all of their close games, thus their record is better than their statistical "Expected Wins", which would put them at 14-11. Really hoping they start regressing to the mean.

The Wolves have done a waaaaaay better job this season beating the teams they are supposed to beat. It hasn't been perfect or pretty all the time, but it's a lot better than last year. Now we need to start notching some more wins against tougher competition.

A couple of things:

- A top 10 rating on both offense and defense is a surefire sign that a team is legit... potentially as a Finals team.
- And that makes the 2014 Wolves (discussed previously) such a goofy team. That team was a top 10 team on both sides until the last week of the season... and finished 40 - 42. Almost unheard of. The team Expected W/L was 48 - 34.
- And that nugget brings me to the Los Angeles Lakers. I've shared the exact numbers before... but no NBA team is remotely close to surpassing its Expected W/L total as often or as much as the Lakers.

Lakers Expected W/L in recent PLAYOFF seasons (seems relevant):

+3 this season already.
+6 last season
+5 in 2024
+1 in 2023
= in 2021 (72 games)
+4 in 2020
+2 in 2017
+1 in 2013
+5 in 2012 (66 games)
Total: +27 in playoff seasons. (+24 in all seasons since 2012) Never more than -2 in any season, including 55+-loss seasons since 2000.
- The Lakers were the league leader in exceeding their Expected Wins multiple times.

Conversely... Minnesota:

= this season
-4 last season
-1 in 2024
+1 in 2023
-2 in 2022
-1 in 2021
-5 in 2020
-1 in 2019
= in 2018
-7 in 2017
-2 in 2016
-3 in 2015
-8 in 2014
-3 in 2013
-2 in 2012
Total: -38 (only one + season... and only by 1 game)

__________________________________________________

Is this some sort of statistical anomaly/miracle? Ahem, ahem... do you guys want me to share free throw data (especially late in seasons when the Lakers were facing missing the playoffs)? It's pretty damn telling.

Also important to remember... this period for both teams represents both really good and really bad seasons for both teams. Different coaches. Different players. Different management groups. Heck... different ownership groups.

But there's still a consistency to it, right? Again, statistical anomaly or pretty damn telling?

____________________________________________________

Just another entirely random and totally not meaningful stat at all...

- Since 2022...

The Lakers have taken 1,460 more FTAs than their opponents. The next team on the list is +699. Regardless of who's playing for the lakers or not... or who's coaching them... they just consistently get fouled more while fouling a lot less than every other NBA team.

Ha, this is quite the analysis Abe! It certainly answer's Cool's question.

I looked at a sample of four current and former LAL players with a decent body of work with other teams to compare their free throw rate and foul rate to see if they got special treatment with the Lakers. The results are mixed:

LeBron Cleveland Career Average versus first three years Lakers Average per 100 possessions:
FTAs = 11.0 vs. 8.7
PFs = 2.6 vs. 2.3

Anthony Davis Pelicans Career vs. Lakers Career
FTAs = 10.0 vs. 10.1
PFs = 3.4 vs. 3.2

Jaxson Hayes Pelicans Career vs. Lakers Career
FTAs = 6.9 vs. 4.4
PFs = 5.7 vs. 6.1

DeAndre Ayton Portland Career vs. Lakers this Season:
FTAs = 2.3 vs. 2.7
PFs = 3.2 vs. 4.4

Luka Doncic Mavericks Career vs. Lakers this Season:
FTAs = 11.5 vs. 13.9
PFs = 3.2 vs. 3.4



It's a mixed bag.....

Luka so far seems to be the biggest beneficiary of a biased whistle, but he doesn't have a big sample size yet. On the other hand, he's getting a slighly worse whistle in terms of fouling.

For LeBron I just used his first three years with the Lakers since he was still an MVP-caliber player then. His FTAs would have been even lower with LAL if I had included his entire career with them.

Not much difference with ADs numbers.

Ayton gets a tick more FTAs but also gets called for a lot more fouls.

Hayes has done worse in both categories since becoming a Laker.

I can't look at a guy like Reaves since he's only played for LAL. But let's face it, anyone who saw him play the Wolves earlier this season has to recognize that he's actually a really good shot creator with a lot of change of speed/direction in his bag, some of which is a little grift-y, but not out of line by NBA standards (Harden, SGA, etc.).

So I don't know....Your analysis is shocking in one sense, but then when you start looking at the players that have played with different teams, it's hard to say they get a big benefit from playing in L.A.

I think part of this is the way the NBA is officiated and the types of players the Lakers have had on their squad. They tend to always be a veteran team that doesn't play super physical and guys like LeBron, AD, and Doncic shoot a lot of free throws no matter where they play.

I'm not necessarily saying anything about individual players... which is kind of my point.

Heck, when the Lakers went on that legendary run of free throw dominance down the stretch a couple years back just to sneak into the playoffs... LeBron James was injured for much of the run and wasn't even on the court.

The Lakers are a team that consistently leads the league (or are near the top of the league) in two categories... year after year after year...

- Free throw differential
- They win more games than their Expected W/L

It could be a coincidence. Then again, this is a league who had an official arrested for working with the mob. A league with players and coaches caught up in gambling rings. A league that gets A LOT more eyeballs when its marquee organizations do well.

It's nearly 2026... I think we're all a bit more cynical about what's really happening behind the scenes in all facets of life, including pro sports.



I pointed out in the recent Houston vs. Denver game that it doesn't take much to swing a game. One guy gets shoved in the back with two hands on one end and is dislodged from the play... no call. 10 seconds later, his teammate has one arm on a guy's back but doesn't dislodge the offensive player from his spot and gets called for a foul on the other end. One team wins, one team loses on those two simple calls or no calls... each of which can be argued and scrutinized in a vacuum... just like the NBA wants.

The plebes arguing about officiating is actually good for the NBA. Look at ALL the social media discourse that's happened over the years just around officiating. It's helped drive the league's popularity whether directly or indirectly.

[Q-is-here]

A couple of things:

- A top 10 rating on both offense and defense is a surefire sign that a team is legit... potentially as a Finals team.
- And that makes the 2014 Wolves (discussed previously) such a goofy team. That team was a top 10 team on both sides until the last week of the season... and finished 40 - 42. Almost unheard of. The team Expected W/L was 48 - 34.
- And that nugget brings me to the Los Angeles Lakers. I've shared the exact numbers before... but no NBA team is remotely close to surpassing its Expected W/L total as often or as much as the Lakers.

Lakers Expected W/L in recent PLAYOFF seasons (seems relevant):

+3 this season already.
+6 last season
+5 in 2024
+1 in 2023
= in 2021 (72 games)
+4 in 2020
+2 in 2017
+1 in 2013
+5 in 2012 (66 games)
Total: +27 in playoff seasons. (+24 in all seasons since 2012) Never more than -2 in any season, including 55+-loss seasons since 2000.
- The Lakers were the league leader in exceeding their Expected Wins multiple times.

Conversely... Minnesota:

= this season
-4 last season
-1 in 2024
+1 in 2023
-2 in 2022
-1 in 2021
-5 in 2020
-1 in 2019
= in 2018
-7 in 2017
-2 in 2016
-3 in 2015
-8 in 2014
-3 in 2013
-2 in 2012
Total: -38 (only one + season... and only by 1 game)

__________________________________________________

Is this some sort of statistical anomaly/miracle? Ahem, ahem... do you guys want me to share free throw data (especially late in seasons when the Lakers were facing missing the playoffs)? It's pretty damn telling.

Also important to remember... this period for both teams represents both really good and really bad seasons for both teams. Different coaches. Different players. Different management groups. Heck... different ownership groups.

But there's still a consistency to it, right? Again, statistical anomaly or pretty damn telling?

____________________________________________________

Just another entirely random and totally not meaningful stat at all...

- Since 2022...

The Lakers have taken 1,460 more FTAs than their opponents. The next team on the list is +699. Regardless of who's playing for the lakers or not... or who's coaching them... they just consistently get fouled more while fouling a lot less than every other NBA team.

Ha, this is quite the analysis Abe! It certainly answer's Cool's question.

I looked at a sample of four current and former LAL players with a decent body of work with other teams to compare their free throw rate and foul rate to see if they got special treatment with the Lakers. The results are mixed:

LeBron Cleveland Career Average versus first three years Lakers Average per 100 possessions:
FTAs = 11.0 vs. 8.7
PFs = 2.6 vs. 2.3

Anthony Davis Pelicans Career vs. Lakers Career
FTAs = 10.0 vs. 10.1
PFs = 3.4 vs. 3.2

Jaxson Hayes Pelicans Career vs. Lakers Career
FTAs = 6.9 vs. 4.4
PFs = 5.7 vs. 6.1

DeAndre Ayton Portland Career vs. Lakers this Season:
FTAs = 2.3 vs. 2.7
PFs = 3.2 vs. 4.4

Luka Doncic Mavericks Career vs. Lakers this Season:
FTAs = 11.5 vs. 13.9
PFs = 3.2 vs. 3.4



It's a mixed bag.....

Luka so far seems to be the biggest beneficiary of a biased whistle, but he doesn't have a big sample size yet. On the other hand, he's getting a slighly worse whistle in terms of fouling.

For LeBron I just used his first three years with the Lakers since he was still an MVP-caliber player then. His FTAs would have been even lower with LAL if I had included his entire career with them.

Not much difference with ADs numbers.

Ayton gets a tick more FTAs but also gets called for a lot more fouls.

Hayes has done worse in both categories since becoming a Laker.

I can't look at a guy like Reaves since he's only played for LAL. But let's face it, anyone who saw him play the Wolves earlier this season has to recognize that he's actually a really good shot creator with a lot of change of speed/direction in his bag, some of which is a little grift-y, but not out of line by NBA standards (Harden, SGA, etc.).

So I don't know....Your analysis is shocking in one sense, but then when you start looking at the players that have played with different teams, it's hard to say they get a big benefit from playing in L.A.

I think part of this is the way the NBA is officiated and the types of players the Lakers have had on their squad. They tend to always be a veteran team that doesn't play super physical and guys like LeBron, AD, and Doncic shoot a lot of free throws no matter where they play.

I'm not necessarily saying anything about individual players... which is kind of my point.

Heck, when the Lakers went on that legendary run of free throw dominance down the stretch a couple years back just to sneak into the playoffs... LeBron James was injured for much of the run and wasn't even on the court.

The Lakers are a team that consistently leads the league (or are near the top of the league) in two categories... year after year after year...

- Free throw differential
- They win more games than their Expected W/L

It could be a coincidence. Then again, this is a league who had an official arrested for working with the mob. A league with players and coaches caught up in gambling rings. A league that gets A LOT more eyeballs when its marquee organizations do well.

It's nearly 2026... I think we're all a bit more cynical about what's really happening behind the scenes in all facets of life, including pro sports.



I pointed out in the recent Houston vs. Denver game that it doesn't take much to swing a game. One guy gets shoved in the back with two hands on one end and is dislodged from the play... no call. 10 seconds later, his teammate has one arm on a guy's back but doesn't dislodge the offensive player from his spot and gets called for a foul on the other end. One team wins, one team loses on those two simple calls or no calls... each of which can be argued and scrutinized in a vacuum... just like the NBA wants.

The plebes arguing about officiating is actually good for the NBA. Look at ALL the social media discourse that's happened over the years just around officiating. It's helped drive the league's popularity whether directly or indirectly.

But individual players DO matter because if your theory is that the Lakers as a franchise get a favorable whistle in terms of foul-drawing and foul-committing then it would make sense that its players would not get the same benefit with different franchises. After all, it's players that commit fouls and take free throws.

I think there are two things going on here. First, the Lakers tend to have veteran squads with very heady players that know the NBA rules inside and out. Anthony Davis is one of the great two-way players in this generation. He's going to draw a ton of free throws and defend without fouling no matter who he plays for. He was a key pillar along with LeBron in a lot of those seasons you cite. Those two also know how to execute at the end of close games.

The second thing is that I do think the officials are biased in favor of stars and established vets. So the first part leads to the second part.

I also think there may be a little unconsious bias going on that the officials themselves aren't aware of in the moment, but that is subordinate to the types of players the Lakers typically have on their squad.