The top 6 in the West

[AbeVigodaLive]

Ha, this is quite the analysis Abe! It certainly answer's Cool's question.

I looked at a sample of four current and former LAL players with a decent body of work with other teams to compare their free throw rate and foul rate to see if they got special treatment with the Lakers. The results are mixed:

LeBron Cleveland Career Average versus first three years Lakers Average per 100 possessions:
FTAs = 11.0 vs. 8.7
PFs = 2.6 vs. 2.3

Anthony Davis Pelicans Career vs. Lakers Career
FTAs = 10.0 vs. 10.1
PFs = 3.4 vs. 3.2

Jaxson Hayes Pelicans Career vs. Lakers Career
FTAs = 6.9 vs. 4.4
PFs = 5.7 vs. 6.1

DeAndre Ayton Portland Career vs. Lakers this Season:
FTAs = 2.3 vs. 2.7
PFs = 3.2 vs. 4.4

Luka Doncic Mavericks Career vs. Lakers this Season:
FTAs = 11.5 vs. 13.9
PFs = 3.2 vs. 3.4



It's a mixed bag.....

Luka so far seems to be the biggest beneficiary of a biased whistle, but he doesn't have a big sample size yet. On the other hand, he's getting a slighly worse whistle in terms of fouling.

For LeBron I just used his first three years with the Lakers since he was still an MVP-caliber player then. His FTAs would have been even lower with LAL if I had included his entire career with them.

Not much difference with ADs numbers.

Ayton gets a tick more FTAs but also gets called for a lot more fouls.

Hayes has done worse in both categories since becoming a Laker.

I can't look at a guy like Reaves since he's only played for LAL. But let's face it, anyone who saw him play the Wolves earlier this season has to recognize that he's actually a really good shot creator with a lot of change of speed/direction in his bag, some of which is a little grift-y, but not out of line by NBA standards (Harden, SGA, etc.).

So I don't know....Your analysis is shocking in one sense, but then when you start looking at the players that have played with different teams, it's hard to say they get a big benefit from playing in L.A.

I think part of this is the way the NBA is officiated and the types of players the Lakers have had on their squad. They tend to always be a veteran team that doesn't play super physical and guys like LeBron, AD, and Doncic shoot a lot of free throws no matter where they play.

I'm not necessarily saying anything about individual players... which is kind of my point.

Heck, when the Lakers went on that legendary run of free throw dominance down the stretch a couple years back just to sneak into the playoffs... LeBron James was injured for much of the run and wasn't even on the court.

The Lakers are a team that consistently leads the league (or are near the top of the league) in two categories... year after year after year...

- Free throw differential
- They win more games than their Expected W/L

It could be a coincidence. Then again, this is a league who had an official arrested for working with the mob. A league with players and coaches caught up in gambling rings. A league that gets A LOT more eyeballs when its marquee organizations do well.

It's nearly 2026... I think we're all a bit more cynical about what's really happening behind the scenes in all facets of life, including pro sports.



I pointed out in the recent Houston vs. Denver game that it doesn't take much to swing a game. One guy gets shoved in the back with two hands on one end and is dislodged from the play... no call. 10 seconds later, his teammate has one arm on a guy's back but doesn't dislodge the offensive player from his spot and gets called for a foul on the other end. One team wins, one team loses on those two simple calls or no calls... each of which can be argued and scrutinized in a vacuum... just like the NBA wants.

The plebes arguing about officiating is actually good for the NBA. Look at ALL the social media discourse that's happened over the years just around officiating. It's helped drive the league's popularity whether directly or indirectly.

But individual players DO matter because if your theory is that the Lakers as a franchise get a favorable whistle in terms of foul-drawing and foul-committing then it would make sense that its players would not get the same benefit with different franchises. After all, it's players that commit fouls and take free throws.

I think there are two things going on here. First, the Lakers tend to have veteran squads with very heady players that know the NBA rules inside and out. Anthony Davis is one of the great two-way players in this generation. He's going to draw a ton of free throws and defend without fouling no matter who he plays for. He was a key pillar along with LeBron in a lot of those seasons you cite. Those two also know how to execute at the end of close games.

The second thing is that I do think the officials are biased in favor of stars and established vets. So the first part leads to the second part.

I also think there may be a little unconsious bias going on that the officials themselves aren't aware of in the moment, but that is subordinate to the types of players the Lakers typically have on their squad.

Maybe. Obviously, there's legitimacy in what you're saying...

At the same time... guys like James and Davis have missed a lot of games over the years... and the team disparity didn't change. At times, it became more pronounced and I can dig deeper into those numbers if you want.

Additionally, the Lakers even in down years without a star veteran player on the roster... STILL did better in Expected W/L than almost every Wolves team over the past 37 years.

So I tend to believe in intentional or subconscious bias over anything else. Because the numbers don't lie... the Lakers win more games they're expected to lose than Minnesota in almost every season since 1989... and especially over the last 15 years in the modern NBA.

[Coolbreeze44]

The NBA is corrupt, has been since David Stern became commissioner. I'll fight that battle every day. But to Abe's point, any game close in the last 5 minutes is so much easier to sway than you would think. It just takes a couple of well timed calls or no calls to make a huge difference.

I haven't checked the stats on this, but with the advent of rules favoring the offense, I don't believe the average game is as close as it was in the 90's. Back then it seemed like the first 40 minutes was just for show and then the game was decided at the end. Obviously you need to have a relatively close outcome for the officials to have an impact. So I don't think it happens as often today. But with viewership for national broadcasts down 40% over the last decade, you're not going to see the Lakers get screwed over very often.

[Q-is-here]

The last two games of our series against the Lakers were super close late into the 4th quarter. So the NBA/refs had TWO chances to sway the game in the Lakers favor. We won both games by more than a basket, meaning it wasn't some freak last second shot that won it for us. If ever there was a time for the NBA and refs to put their thumb on the scales for LA, it was then. Didn't happen.

[Coolbreeze44]

The last two games of our series against the Lakers were super close late into the 4th quarter. So the NBA/refs had TWO chances to sway the game in the Lakers favor. We won both games by more than a basket, meaning it wasn't some freak last second shot that won it for us. If ever there was a time for the NBA and refs to put their thumb on the scales for LA, it was then. Didn't happen.

Yeah, I was surprised how fairly that series was officiated. I wish I could believe in the absolute integrity of the NBA. But I know better.

[FNG]

Houston loses to the pelicans and the Lakers are behind Utah in the 3rd…takes some of the sting out of our loss last night.

[AbeVigodaLive]

The last two games of our series against the Lakers were super close late into the 4th quarter. So the NBA/refs had TWO chances to sway the game in the Lakers favor. We won both games by more than a basket, meaning it wasn't some freak last second shot that won it for us. If ever there was a time for the NBA and refs to put their thumb on the scales for LA, it was then. Didn't happen.

That would point to an outright conspiracy. I don't think that's what's going on. Laying a thumb on the scale does not mean fixing games.

But I do think there's bias when officiating Lakers games... we're going on 25 years of goofy statistical anomalies that impact that franchise more than every other NBA franchise. BY A LOT. Of course, we can excuse it away. Time after time after time after time. And we do. (Heck, I have.) All the while, the statistical anomalies keep adding up every year in favor of the Lakers. Eventually, smoke starts to form.

If the league was more upstanding in that time with its officiating... I'd be more willing to chalk it up to another crazy coincidence. But we all know how the NBA has handled itself over that quarter-century...

[Q-is-here]

The last two games of our series against the Lakers were super close late into the 4th quarter. So the NBA/refs had TWO chances to sway the game in the Lakers favor. We won both games by more than a basket, meaning it wasn't some freak last second shot that won it for us. If ever there was a time for the NBA and refs to put their thumb on the scales for LA, it was then. Didn't happen.

That would point to an outright conspiracy. I don't think that's what's going on. Laying a thumb on the scale does not mean fixing games.

But I do think there's bias when officiating Lakers games... we're going on 25 years of goofy statistical anomalies that impact that franchise more than every other NBA franchise. BY A LOT. Of course, we can excuse it away. Time after time after time after time. And we do. (Heck, I have.) All the while, the statistical anomalies keep adding up every year in favor of the Lakers. Eventually, smoke starts to form.

If the league was more upstanding in that time with its officiating... I'd be more willing to chalk it up to another crazy coincidence. But we all know how the NBA has handled itself over that quarter-century...

But why then did the NBA/ref association not tip the scale in favor of the Lakers in their series against Minnesota? The Wolves not only won the two close games that the refs could have heavily influenced, they actually shot more FTs for the entire series. If ever there was a time for shenanigans, it was this series, especially after the Doncic trade went down and how everyone was gushing over the Lakers.

I guess I'm of two minds. It's hard to not feel the way you do looking at the macro picture of things and knowing how hard the NBA media (specifically ESPN) actively roots and favors the Lakers.

But it's also true that LA has historically been an attractive destination for established stars and veteran free agents. Those types of players get a biased whistle because of the NBA's star system and most NBA vets legitimately know how to defend without fouling as much as younger, less experienced players.

[AbeVigodaLive]

The last two games of our series against the Lakers were super close late into the 4th quarter. So the NBA/refs had TWO chances to sway the game in the Lakers favor. We won both games by more than a basket, meaning it wasn't some freak last second shot that won it for us. If ever there was a time for the NBA and refs to put their thumb on the scales for LA, it was then. Didn't happen.

That would point to an outright conspiracy. I don't think that's what's going on. Laying a thumb on the scale does not mean fixing games.

But I do think there's bias when officiating Lakers games... we're going on 25 years of goofy statistical anomalies that impact that franchise more than every other NBA franchise. BY A LOT. Of course, we can excuse it away. Time after time after time after time. And we do. (Heck, I have.) All the while, the statistical anomalies keep adding up every year in favor of the Lakers. Eventually, smoke starts to form.

If the league was more upstanding in that time with its officiating... I'd be more willing to chalk it up to another crazy coincidence. But we all know how the NBA has handled itself over that quarter-century...

But why then did the NBA/ref association not tip the scale in favor of the Lakers in their series against Minnesota? The Wolves not only won the two close games that the refs could have heavily influenced, they actually shot more FTs for the entire series. If ever there was a time for shenanigans, it was this series, especially after the Doncic trade went down and how everyone was gushing over the Lakers.

I guess I'm of two minds. It's hard to not feel the way you do looking at the macro picture of things and knowing how hard the NBA media (specifically ESPN) actively roots and favors the Lakers.

But it's also true that LA has historically been an attractive destination for established stars and veteran free agents. Those types of players get a biased whistle because of the NBA's star system and most NBA vets legitimately know how to defend without fouling as much as younger, less experienced players.

Damn it... I lost all my stats I just wrote. Ugh... I'll try to recreate in an abridge late-late-night version.

The Lakers have had two of the craziest, most coincidental free throw disparity runs in NBA history... both times while being led by a superstar while desperately trying to get a playoff berth.

2023. The Lakers lose in Boston after James gets fouled (no call). In an unprecedented move... the NBA apologizes. The Lakers are 24 - 28... out of the playoff hunt. (At the time they were leading the league in FT differential at about +3 per game.)

Over the next 30 games... the Lakers have a +12 FT differential.

- The Lakers take more FTAs than their opponent in 29 games.
- The superstar, LeBron James, misses 15 of those games.

The Lakers just barely make the playoffs! Crazy!

2013: The Lakers are 37 - 36. Basically, they have to win out to make the playoffs with superstar Kobe Bryant.

Over the next 9 games...

- The Lakers are +115 from the line. +13 per game. (They took more than the opponent in every game... including a +34 advantage in a 2-point win.)

It gets crazier and more coincidental. The Lakers are tied or losing in the 4th quarter in each of the final 5 games.

- The Lakers take 58 FTs vs. 20 FTs in the 4th quarters of those 5 games... including a 14 - 3 advantage in Game 82. The Lakers win! They sneak into the playoffs!

Could be a coincidence(s) that the legendary Lakers just start getting fouled more and stop fouling the opponent exactly when they are most desperate for wins to even make the playoffs.



[Note: The 4th quarter of Game 6 in the 2002 WCF was probably a coincidence, too. I know each can be justified in a vacuum... but they're piling up over the years.]

[Q-is-here]

That would point to an outright conspiracy. I don't think that's what's going on. Laying a thumb on the scale does not mean fixing games.

But I do think there's bias when officiating Lakers games... we're going on 25 years of goofy statistical anomalies that impact that franchise more than every other NBA franchise. BY A LOT. Of course, we can excuse it away. Time after time after time after time. And we do. (Heck, I have.) All the while, the statistical anomalies keep adding up every year in favor of the Lakers. Eventually, smoke starts to form.

If the league was more upstanding in that time with its officiating... I'd be more willing to chalk it up to another crazy coincidence. But we all know how the NBA has handled itself over that quarter-century...

But why then did the NBA/ref association not tip the scale in favor of the Lakers in their series against Minnesota? The Wolves not only won the two close games that the refs could have heavily influenced, they actually shot more FTs for the entire series. If ever there was a time for shenanigans, it was this series, especially after the Doncic trade went down and how everyone was gushing over the Lakers.

I guess I'm of two minds. It's hard to not feel the way you do looking at the macro picture of things and knowing how hard the NBA media (specifically ESPN) actively roots and favors the Lakers.

But it's also true that LA has historically been an attractive destination for established stars and veteran free agents. Those types of players get a biased whistle because of the NBA's star system and most NBA vets legitimately know how to defend without fouling as much as younger, less experienced players.

Damn it... I lost all my stats I just wrote. Ugh... I'll try to recreate in an abridge late-late-night version.

The Lakers have had two of the craziest, most coincidental free throw disparity runs in NBA history... both times while being led by a superstar while desperately trying to get a playoff berth.

2023. The Lakers lose in Boston after James gets fouled (no call). In an unprecedented move... the NBA apologizes. The Lakers are 24 - 28... out of the playoff hunt. (At the time they were leading the league in FT differential at about +3 per game.)

Over the next 30 games... the Lakers have a +12 FT differential.

- The Lakers take more FTAs than their opponent in 29 games.
- The superstar, LeBron James, misses 15 of those games.

The Lakers just barely make the playoffs! Crazy!

2013: The Lakers are 37 - 36. Basically, they have to win out to make the playoffs with superstar Kobe Bryant.

Over the next 9 games...

- The Lakers are +115 from the line. +13 per game. (They took more than the opponent in every game... including a +34 advantage in a 2-point win.)

It gets crazier and more coincidental. The Lakers are tied or losing in the 4th quarter in each of the final 5 games.

- The Lakers take 58 FTs vs. 20 FTs in the 4th quarters of those 5 games... including a 14 - 3 advantage in Game 82. The Lakers win! They sneak into the playoffs!

Could be a coincidence(s) that the legendary Lakers just start getting fouled more and stop fouling the opponent exactly when they are most desperate for wins to even make the playoffs.



[Note: The 4th quarter of Game 6 in the 2002 WCF was probably a coincidence, too. I know each can be justified in a vacuum... but they're piling up over the years.]

Yeah, it doesn't look good and not sure what to make of it. As I've said before, any pre-meditated conspiracy to help them over the years would have eventually been exposed by someone in the know on the inside. The NBA isn't Russia where someone that defies Putin suddenly falls from a 10-story building one day.

I think there is some unconscious bias going on by the officials. They are human. They know it's the Lakers. They know the standings. There is a history that may be self-reinforcing.

[FNG]

The top 6 continue to separate themselves from the pack, and the Wolves are now tied with Houston and just 3 games out of second place. OkC is still clearly the cream of the crop, but last night showed that perhaps they are not as far ahead of the pack as we might think. They dominate the cupcakes in the league, but they still have only 6 wins over teams with winning records, and they now have lost two games in a row against winning teams. We beat them last night when they were at close to full strength, and we trailed them by just one point with a minute to play last time we played them. They play the Spurs next Tuesday, and a third loss in a row to winning teams will tell us a little more about them.