Byron Buxton

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

I think most Twins fans have been enormously excited about Buxton since we drafted him. Unfortunately, he is far from living up to the hype so far. Now, to keep things in perspective, he has only played in 106 major league games and is only 22 years old. But with the caveat that much can change in the future, it's reasonable to look at where he is at this stage of his career...both good and bad.

The Good:

1) I don't know if I have ever seen a major league player with more game-changing speed than Byron...at least certainly no Twin. He doesn't get on base enough to really make his speed a factor, but when he does, the results are often spectacular. The play he made last night...stealing second easily, going to third on the overthrow, and then continuing home and leaping over the catcher when the center fielder briefly overran the ball...was nothing short of breathtaking. He turns routine ground balls into close plays, and is a nightmare on the bases for any pitcher.

2) He doesn't seem to let his struggles at the plate impact his defense, and he is nothing short of sensational in CF. He gets a good jump on the ball and has the speed to get to balls that other center fielders would have no chance on. And he has a good glove when he gets to the ball. He is truly a gifted center fielder at 22.

The Bad:

1) His hitting in the majors has been absurdly bad, and doesn't seem to be improving. He is currently hitting .199 and his career average is .203, and he is only hitting .150 since the All-Star break. He strikes out 40% of the time, and that percentage has stayed consistent all year. He still seems to have very little pitch recognition, and as a result, finds himself in unfavorable counts most of the time...and he is ridiculously bad when he gets behind in the count. Listen to this...when he has 2 strikes on him other than a full count, he has only 8 hits in 96 at bats for an .083 batting average! And just to makes things worse, he seems to pop up bunts more often than not when asked to sacrifice bunt.

2) He is hurt again after injuring his knee during today's game (he won't be travelling with the team to Cleveland awaiting results of an MRI), and with his terrible injury history to date, it's not too early to wonder whether he is seriously injury prone. He plays hard on every play, and is likely to continue to engage in plays that have a higher chance of resulting in injuries...stealing bases, running into fences, and diving for balls in the outfield. He needs some sustained time in the majors to learn to become a better hitter, but his injuries aren't allowing him to develop like other top prospects.


There it is, the good and the bad...and unfortunately to date the bad far outweighs the good. We're all cheering for him because he has such enormous talent and seems like a really good kid, but with every passing month the possibility of bust raises its ugly head. I hope not.

[Monster]

I hope the Twins and fans are patient with Buxton. That's all.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

I agree, monster, and so far I think both management and fans have been extraordinarily patient. I honestly can't think of one player in Twins' history that has hit .200 and struck out 40% of the time over the course of 100 games, and continued to get consistent playing time. But how do we define patience? If three years from now he is still hovering around the Mendoza line with that K rate and still starting in center, have we been too patient? How about 2 years from now? Heck, how about just one more year.

I don't have the answer, but I am worried about both his performance and his tendency to miss games with injuries. And yet I still want to see him out there every night, so I'm hoping this latest injury isn't serious. Here's where I am with him. I don't know if he will ever hit at the major league level, but his defense and speed are so exceptional, he would be my starting center fielder for a long time if he could just stay healthy and hit at least .225. I'm fairly confident he can learn to hit .225, but I'm more concerned about his ability to stay healthy.

[bleedspeed]

He seemed to hit to good in the minors not to get it here. I worry he is not getting the best coaching at this level.

[Monster]

The guy is 22 and has 320 major league ABs and 171 ABs at AAA. That's not even 1 season's worth of ABs above AA ball. He has had problems staying healthy which may be a bigger concern than anything else but that certainly didn't help his hitting either. The reality is the sample size for Buxton as a hitter at the top levels is pretty small still. Patience.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

He seemed to hit to good in the minors not to get it here. I worry he is not getting the best coaching at this level.

Yes, Byron's results in the minors have been totally different than his results in the majors...he has a lifetime minors average over .300 with a strikeout rate less than half his 40% rate in the majors. But while I'm not a fan of Bruno as our hitting coach (I always thought he brought a poor approach to the plate), I don't think he is the reason for Byron's struggles. There is a huge difference in pitching between AAA and the majors, and he hasn't been able to adjust to it. Pitching patterns in the minors are more predictable...get ahead with the fastball and use the breaking ball as the out pitch...so a guess hitter like Byron can be more successful. But the different patterns he has seen in the majors have totally intimidated him, and leads to his frequent unfavorable counts and strikeouts. So many times I have seen him swing and miss at a first pitch breaking ball well out of the zone when he was guessing fastball, or take a first pitch fast ball right down the middle when he was guessing breaking ball...it's painful to watch. I'm certain Bruno and Mollie are talking to him about his approach and how different the pitching is in the majors, but it's not sinking in.

I agree with monster that we need to continue to be patient with Byron, especially since he brings so much to the game defensively. But we can't ignore the fact that his poor majors hitting start is unprecedented in Twins' history. A 40% strikeout rate is historically bad for a non-HR hitter (Park is close to 40%), and needs to drastically change for him to come anywhere near his potential.

[AbeVigodaLive]

320 AB: 3 HR / 22 RBI / .203 BA / .252 OBP / .577 OPS / 121 Ks
233 AB: 0 HR / 20 RBI / .215 BA / .267 OBP / .503 OPS / 44 Ks

Buxton is young. He's gifted with speed and defense. And there's plenty of time to turn things around at the plate. But I think Twins fans have been pretty patient with him... maybe that's apathy from such a lousy season where there are many other areas to nitpick...

But the bottom line is from Tsuyoshi Nishioka, arguably the worst everyday position player I can remember who donned a Twins uniform. He was overmatched everywhere on the field, offense/defense. And it was obvious instantly.

To see Buxton at the same level offensively is disheartening because it shows just how far he needs to go (think of a 4 ppg / 2 ast / 3 TO / 35% fg shooting PG)...



[Note: The Twins had a merciful short leash with Nishioka... and even that came after the fans had given up on him.]

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

320 AB: 3 HR / 22 RBI / .203 BA / .252 OBP / .577 OPS / 121 Ks
233 AB: 0 HR / 20 RBI / .215 BA / .267 OBP / .503 OPS / 44 Ks

Buxton is young. He's gifted with speed and defense. And there's plenty of time to turn things around at the plate. But I think Twins fans have been pretty patient with him... maybe that's apathy from such a lousy season where there are many other areas to nitpick...

But the bottom line is from Tsuyoshi Nishioka, arguably the worst everyday position player I can remember who donned a Twins uniform. He was overmatched everywhere on the field, offense/defense. And it was obvious instantly.

To see Buxton at the same level offensively is disheartening because it shows just how far he needs to go (think of a 4 ppg / 2 ast / 3 TO / 35% fg shooting PG)...



[Note: The Twins had a merciful short leash with Nishioka... and even that came after the fans had given up on him.]

Ouch, that's a sad comparison, Abe. Yeah, fans and management have been extraordinarily patient with Buxton, but I think it's because he can do things like the two clips in this attachment.

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/watch-lets-enjoy-the-speed-and-catcher-hurdling-ability-of-byron-buxton/

While he has been historically bad at the plate, the Twins have never had a player who could make plays like those two...in the same game! That's why I think he has a chance, but he needs to hit at least .225 for me to be satisfied.

[bleedspeed]

Would it make sense for him to be in AAA?

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Would it make sense for him to be in AAA?

I'm guessing that's a question Twins management asks themselves frequently. I don't have the answer, just an opinion. I think he has nothing more to prove in AAA. He can rake in the minors with more predictable pitching patterns, but only experience in the majors will help him develop as a hitter at that level.

My opinion would be different if I thought staying in the majors was permanently damaging him psychologically. But his continued superb defense tells me he hasn't totally lost his confidence in his game. If his fielding started to get worse, I would be in favor of another demotion.