The top 6 in the West

[60WinTim]

Austin Reaves will be "re-evaluated" in 4 weeks due to a grade 2 something-or-other strain. Not good news for the Lakers who have already been struggling (although, those struggles came without Austin).

I'm not sure how long we can maintain a lead on Houston, but overtaking the Lakers and creating a cushion is doable.

[Phenom]

The Wolves availability, knock on wood, it's a serious floor raiser

[AbeVigodaLive]

The Lakers seemingly win all of their close games, thus their record is better than their statistical "Expected Wins", which would put them at 14-11. Really hoping they start regressing to the mean.

The Wolves have done a waaaaaay better job this season beating the teams they are supposed to beat. It hasn't been perfect or pretty all the time, but it's a lot better than last year. Now we need to start notching some more wins against tougher competition.

A couple of things:

- A top 10 rating on both offense and defense is a surefire sign that a team is legit... potentially as a Finals team.
- And that makes the 2014 Wolves (discussed previously) such a goofy team. That team was a top 10 team on both sides until the last week of the season... and finished 40 - 42. Almost unheard of. The team Expected W/L was 48 - 34.
- And that nugget brings me to the Los Angeles Lakers. I've shared the exact numbers before... but no NBA team is remotely close to surpassing its Expected W/L total as often or as much as the Lakers.

Lakers Expected W/L in recent PLAYOFF seasons (seems relevant):

+3 this season already.
+6 last season
+5 in 2024
+1 in 2023
= in 2021 (72 games)
+4 in 2020
+2 in 2017
+1 in 2013
+5 in 2012 (66 games)
Total: +27 in playoff seasons. (+24 in all seasons since 2012) Never more than -2 in any season, including 55+-loss seasons since 2000.
- The Lakers were the league leader in exceeding their Expected Wins multiple times.

Conversely... Minnesota:

= this season
-4 last season
-1 in 2024
+1 in 2023
-2 in 2022
-1 in 2021
-5 in 2020
-1 in 2019
= in 2018
-7 in 2017
-2 in 2016
-3 in 2015
-8 in 2014
-3 in 2013
-2 in 2012
Total: -38 (only one + season... and only by 1 game)

__________________________________________________

Is this some sort of statistical anomaly/miracle? Ahem, ahem... do you guys want me to share free throw data (especially late in seasons when the Lakers were facing missing the playoffs)? It's pretty damn telling.

Also important to remember... this period for both teams represents both really good and really bad seasons for both teams. Different coaches. Different players. Different management groups. Heck... different ownership groups.

But there's still a consistency to it, right? Again, statistical anomaly or pretty damn telling?

____________________________________________________

Just another entirely random and totally not meaningful stat at all...

- Since 2022...

The Lakers have taken 1,460 more FTAs than their opponents. The next team on the list is +699. Regardless of who's playing for the lakers or not... or who's coaching them... they just consistently get fouled more while fouling a lot less than every other NBA team.

UPDATE on the Lakers unique ability to win more games than expected... pretty much every season:

In less than two weeks, the Lakers went from a league-leading +3 in actual wins vs. Expected wins... to a league-leading +5. No other team is better than +2 for the season... and only two other WC teams (SAS and UTA) are + at all.

Crazy coincidence.



[Note: For what it's worth... during Luka Doncic's career in Dallas... the Mavs were -7 overall in Expected W/L. Plus, James, Reaves, and Doncic have combined to miss 30 games this season, accounting for 33% of the season, so guys like Jake LaRavia and Rui Hachimura must have that same "just win" gene that players on nearly every Lakers team for the past 25 years have had.]

[Q-is-here]

The top 6 are doing a good job of separating themselves from the rest of the pack (although I predict Dallas will challenge for the top 6 if AD can stay healthy, especially with the emergence of Flagg and Nembhard), and I wanted to see how they stack up in offensive and defensive ratings. Although OkC and Houston are dominant on defense, offense seems to be more important...the top 6 occupy 6 of the top 8 offensive ratings in the Association. Here are the rankings: Net rating, ORtg, DRtg

Thunder: 1, 5, 1
Rockets: 2, 3, 3
Nuggets: 3, 1, 17
Wolves: 7, 6, 10
Spurs: 8, 7, 14
Lakers: 14, 8, 20

Not too many surprises here, and I agree that the Wolves are 4th best in the West right now.

Kyle Theige suggested wary Wolves fans spend some time reading chat boards of other teams...just like here, everyone is quick to point out the flaws in their team. I think I'll spend an hour doing that later today.

Update from NBA.com - Net Rating, ORtg, DRtg:

Thunder: 1, 5, 1
Spurs: 7, 6, 6
Nuggets: 3, 1, 21
Rockets: 2, 2, 8
Lakers*: 15, 7, 23
Wolves: 8, 9, 5

After an awful start defensively in October, we have climbed all the way up to #5. We've actually been a top 3 defense excluding October.

I mean, as frustrating as this team can be sometimes, I feel like things are going pretty well when you look at the big picture. That doesn't mean Tim Connelly should stop making and taking phone calls, but it's a far cry from panic mode.

*Yeah, hard to believe the Lakers are a top 6 team in the West given their 15th ranked Net Rating. Abe has documented why they are where they are, but it feels like the Wolves should be #5 and Phoenix #6 with the Lakers somewhere in the play-in mess.

[AbeVigodaLive]

The top 6 are doing a good job of separating themselves from the rest of the pack (although I predict Dallas will challenge for the top 6 if AD can stay healthy, especially with the emergence of Flagg and Nembhard), and I wanted to see how they stack up in offensive and defensive ratings. Although OkC and Houston are dominant on defense, offense seems to be more important...the top 6 occupy 6 of the top 8 offensive ratings in the Association. Here are the rankings: Net rating, ORtg, DRtg

Thunder: 1, 5, 1
Rockets: 2, 3, 3
Nuggets: 3, 1, 17
Wolves: 7, 6, 10
Spurs: 8, 7, 14
Lakers: 14, 8, 20

Not too many surprises here, and I agree that the Wolves are 4th best in the West right now.

Kyle Theige suggested wary Wolves fans spend some time reading chat boards of other teams...just like here, everyone is quick to point out the flaws in their team. I think I'll spend an hour doing that later today.

Update from NBA.com - Net Rating, ORtg, DRtg:

Thunder: 1, 5, 1
Spurs: 7, 6, 6
Nuggets: 3, 1, 21
Rockets: 2, 2, 8
Lakers*: 15, 7, 23
Wolves: 8, 9, 5

After an awful start defensively in October, we have climbed all the way up to #5. We've actually been a top 3 defense excluding October.

I mean, as frustrating as this team can be sometimes, I feel like things are going pretty well when you look at the big picture. That doesn't mean Tim Connelly should stop making and taking phone calls, but it's a far cry from panic mode.

*Yeah, hard to believe the Lakers are a top 6 team in the West given their 15th ranked Net Rating. Abe has documented why they are where they are, but it feels like the Wolves should be #5 and Phoenix #6 with the Lakers somewhere in the play-in mess.

Big picture... a top 10 offense AND defense = deep playoff run potential (even championship potential). So that's a great indicator for the Timberwolves, despite how maddening this team can be and how hard we can be on them.

The rub is that there are three other WC teams with even higher rankings. Only one EC team is in the top 10 for both (Detroit).

[FNG]

The top 6 are doing a good job of separating themselves from the rest of the pack (although I predict Dallas will challenge for the top 6 if AD can stay healthy, especially with the emergence of Flagg and Nembhard), and I wanted to see how they stack up in offensive and defensive ratings. Although OkC and Houston are dominant on defense, offense seems to be more important...the top 6 occupy 6 of the top 8 offensive ratings in the Association. Here are the rankings: Net rating, ORtg, DRtg

Thunder: 1, 5, 1
Rockets: 2, 3, 3
Nuggets: 3, 1, 17
Wolves: 7, 6, 10
Spurs: 8, 7, 14
Lakers: 14, 8, 20

Not too many surprises here, and I agree that the Wolves are 4th best in the West right now.

Kyle Theige suggested wary Wolves fans spend some time reading chat boards of other teams...just like here, everyone is quick to point out the flaws in their team. I think I'll spend an hour doing that later today.

Update from NBA.com - Net Rating, ORtg, DRtg:

Thunder: 1, 5, 1
Spurs: 7, 6, 6
Nuggets: 3, 1, 21
Rockets: 2, 2, 8
Lakers*: 15, 7, 23
Wolves: 8, 9, 5

After an awful start defensively in October, we have climbed all the way up to #5. We've actually been a top 3 defense excluding October.

I mean, as frustrating as this team can be sometimes, I feel like things are going pretty well when you look at the big picture. That doesn't mean Tim Connelly should stop making and taking phone calls, but it's a far cry from panic mode.

*Yeah, hard to believe the Lakers are a top 6 team in the West given their 15th ranked Net Rating. Abe has documented why they are where they are, but it feels like the Wolves should be #5 and Phoenix #6 with the Lakers somewhere in the play-in mess.

Big picture... a top 10 offense AND defense = deep playoff run potential (even championship potential). So that's a great indicator for the Timberwolves, despite how maddening this team can be and how hard we can be on them.

The rub is that there are three other WC teams with even higher rankings. Only one EC team is in the top 10 for both (Detroit).

Yep, I'm not too unhappy with where our club stands right now, and if the injury gods permit it, I agree we are set up for a deep run. Even though OkC has shown signs of coming back to the pack (and especially against teams with rim-protecting centers like the Spurs and Wolves), the goal still has to be to rise to a 2nd or 3rd seed to avoid the Thunder in the semis. Now that the Nuggets are missing the best player on the planet plus three other starters, there's no reason we shouldn't finish ahead of them. So then it's a question of passing either the Spurs or the Rockets. The Rockets no longer look as impressive on defense having dropped from 3rd to 9th in just 2 weeks, so I'm hoping we can pass them. And the Spurs have come back to earth also with losses to the hapless Cavs and Jazz this week, so 2nd is also not out of the question.

The NBA world is mourning the Jokic injury, but even though he's one of my favorite players, I'm not dressed in black today. Injuries are part of the game in the NBA and Denver has been very fortunate to have Joker for 69+ games every one of his 10 seasons. Plus, I'm a homer, and even though we aren't supposed to say the quiet part out loud, this really helps us in terms of playoff positioning. Be well, Nikola...but be well in 5 weeks .

[Q-is-here]

Update from NBA.com - Net Rating, ORtg, DRtg:

Thunder: 1, 5, 1
Spurs: 7, 6, 6
Nuggets: 3, 1, 21
Rockets: 2, 2, 8
Lakers*: 15, 7, 23
Wolves: 8, 9, 5

After an awful start defensively in October, we have climbed all the way up to #5. We've actually been a top 3 defense excluding October.

I mean, as frustrating as this team can be sometimes, I feel like things are going pretty well when you look at the big picture. That doesn't mean Tim Connelly should stop making and taking phone calls, but it's a far cry from panic mode.

*Yeah, hard to believe the Lakers are a top 6 team in the West given their 15th ranked Net Rating. Abe has documented why they are where they are, but it feels like the Wolves should be #5 and Phoenix #6 with the Lakers somewhere in the play-in mess.

Big picture... a top 10 offense AND defense = deep playoff run potential (even championship potential). So that's a great indicator for the Timberwolves, despite how maddening this team can be and how hard we can be on them.

The rub is that there are three other WC teams with even higher rankings. Only one EC team is in the top 10 for both (Detroit).

Yep, I'm not too unhappy with where our club stands right now, and if the injury gods permit it, I agree we are set up for a deep run. Even though OkC has shown signs of coming back to the pack (and especially against teams with rim-protecting centers like the Spurs and Wolves), the goal still has to be to rise to a 2nd or 3rd seed to avoid the Thunder in the semis. Now that the Nuggets are missing the best player on the planet plus three other starters, there's no reason we shouldn't finish ahead of them. So then it's a question of passing either the Spurs or the Rockets. The Rockets no longer look as impressive on defense having dropped from 3rd to 9th in just 2 weeks, so I'm hoping we can pass them. And the Spurs have come back to earth also with losses to the hapless Cavs and Jazz this week, so 2nd is also not out of the question.

The NBA world is mourning the Jokic injury, but even though he's one of my favorite players, I'm not dressed in black today. Injuries are part of the game in the NBA and Denver has been very fortunate to have Joker for 69+ games every one of his 10 seasons. Plus, I'm a homer, and even though we aren't supposed to say the quiet part out loud, this really helps us in terms of playoff positioning. Be well, Nikola...but be well in 5 weeks .

At what point do we think the Wolves have some structural advantage with their medical and training staff and methods?? I feel like we have been one of the healthier teams in the NBA over the past few years. Surely some of that is good luck, but are we purely at the mercy of the injury gods or is there something else going on that is a strategic advantage for us??

[FNG]

Big picture... a top 10 offense AND defense = deep playoff run potential (even championship potential). So that's a great indicator for the Timberwolves, despite how maddening this team can be and how hard we can be on them.

The rub is that there are three other WC teams with even higher rankings. Only one EC team is in the top 10 for both (Detroit).

Yep, I'm not too unhappy with where our club stands right now, and if the injury gods permit it, I agree we are set up for a deep run. Even though OkC has shown signs of coming back to the pack (and especially against teams with rim-protecting centers like the Spurs and Wolves), the goal still has to be to rise to a 2nd or 3rd seed to avoid the Thunder in the semis. Now that the Nuggets are missing the best player on the planet plus three other starters, there's no reason we shouldn't finish ahead of them. So then it's a question of passing either the Spurs or the Rockets. The Rockets no longer look as impressive on defense having dropped from 3rd to 9th in just 2 weeks, so I'm hoping we can pass them. And the Spurs have come back to earth also with losses to the hapless Cavs and Jazz this week, so 2nd is also not out of the question.

The NBA world is mourning the Jokic injury, but even though he's one of my favorite players, I'm not dressed in black today. Injuries are part of the game in the NBA and Denver has been very fortunate to have Joker for 69+ games every one of his 10 seasons. Plus, I'm a homer, and even though we aren't supposed to say the quiet part out loud, this really helps us in terms of playoff positioning. Be well, Nikola...but be well in 5 weeks .

At what point do we think the Wolves have some structural advantage with their medical and training staff and methods?? I feel like we have been one of the healthier teams in the NBA over the past few years. Surely some of that is good luck, but are we purely at the mercy of the injury gods or is there something else going on that is a strategic advantage for us??

Wow, interesting question! The converse to this is our local baseball team which always seems to have more injuries than other teams, leading to the hypothesis there might be something wrong with our training staff. You may be on to something, but I tend to think this is more player-related than staff-related...some players are just more or less injury prone, and I think we may be lucky that we don't have many injury prone players. Look at Ant, for instance. How many times have we seen him get hurt and go to the locker room, only to reappear 15 minutes later...he's Superman!

[AbeVigodaLive]

Big picture... a top 10 offense AND defense = deep playoff run potential (even championship potential). So that's a great indicator for the Timberwolves, despite how maddening this team can be and how hard we can be on them.

The rub is that there are three other WC teams with even higher rankings. Only one EC team is in the top 10 for both (Detroit).

Yep, I'm not too unhappy with where our club stands right now, and if the injury gods permit it, I agree we are set up for a deep run. Even though OkC has shown signs of coming back to the pack (and especially against teams with rim-protecting centers like the Spurs and Wolves), the goal still has to be to rise to a 2nd or 3rd seed to avoid the Thunder in the semis. Now that the Nuggets are missing the best player on the planet plus three other starters, there's no reason we shouldn't finish ahead of them. So then it's a question of passing either the Spurs or the Rockets. The Rockets no longer look as impressive on defense having dropped from 3rd to 9th in just 2 weeks, so I'm hoping we can pass them. And the Spurs have come back to earth also with losses to the hapless Cavs and Jazz this week, so 2nd is also not out of the question.

The NBA world is mourning the Jokic injury, but even though he's one of my favorite players, I'm not dressed in black today. Injuries are part of the game in the NBA and Denver has been very fortunate to have Joker for 69+ games every one of his 10 seasons. Plus, I'm a homer, and even though we aren't supposed to say the quiet part out loud, this really helps us in terms of playoff positioning. Be well, Nikola...but be well in 5 weeks .

At what point do we think the Wolves have some structural advantage with their medical and training staff and methods?? I feel like we have been one of the healthier teams in the NBA over the past few years. Surely some of that is good luck, but are we purely at the mercy of the injury gods or is there something else going on that is a strategic advantage for us??

Is there a connection with the Wolves mostly avoiding "rest" days?

While I know there are much smarter medical people out there than me advising NBA teams and players on load management, Wolves players tend to take fewer games off... and miss fewer games to injuries, too.

Could be a coincidence. Or will we learn something from the medical community in a few years that backs up the Wolves philosophy? Or, is it a players-led philosophy that trickles down to the rest of the team and organization? Despite what others may claim, I'm convinced the superstar players in the league decide when they play and when they sit.



[Note: I've mentioned this before, too... but are some of these dud performances partly due to these players battling the 82-game grind instead of the 66-game grind like other teams' top players? On one hand, the Wolves best players are out there as often as they can be... but it might not be an optimal performance at times.]