Lineup data

[AussieWolf3]

Your lineup data is compelling! I don't know what happened after that Atlanta loss, but something has brought this team more together, at least on the court.

I have pulled myself back from the edge of the abyss. I guess I'll call myself cautiously optimistic. Let's see how the rest of the month goes.

This is the Finch/Ant era in a nutshell cause if nothing what- while inconsistent- they've always been resilient and bounce back after low moments.

Tis a very frustrating characteristic of this team.

[AussieWolf3]

Just a week or so ago the eternal opTIMist on this board was staring into the abyss, listing the flaws with this team, and ultimately pointing the finger at Julius. You know things are bad when Tim goes to a dark place! I wonder how he feels today?

Check this out. This is our starting Five's Net Rating from the past three regular seasons:
2023-24: Rudy, KAT, Jaden, Ant, Conley - Ortg=118.7, Drtg=110.8, Net Rating = +7.9
2024-25: Rudy, Randle, Jaden, Ant, Conley - Ortg=113.4, Drtg=110.2, Net Rating = +3.2
2025-26: Rudy, Randle, Jaden, Ant, DDV - Ortg=121.7, Drtg=111.1, Net Rating= +10.6

Now as long as this mostly holds over the next few weeks, does anyone really think Tim Connelly is going to make a big trade that would shake up the starting lineup?

And if you look at the prior two seasons in the playoffs, the starting lineup net rating is even better, as historically both Ant and Jaden raise their game in the playoffs.

That brings us to the bench. I'm still not convinced we have a playoff-caliber bench. I think the Naz-Conley-Bones-Clark bench is doing just fine for now, but I'm skeptical of their efficacy in the vice-grip of the playoffs. I still think Connelly may look at deals that could change the makeup of our bench.

I don't think a big trade is likely, however I myself am still skeptical that this all works with Randle.

I actually like what Randle does for the team, but there are 2 things I haven't been able to get past:

1) I don't like that he is the teams primary playmaker. Hes a legit good playmaking big but the team would still be better served with that role coming from the guard position
2) I firmly believe that there is legit 2 way, 2nd option buried in there with Jaden that will never be released if Randle continues to stand in the way.


All that said I'm still unconvinced that a trade is the correct answer to these problems

[Q-is-here]

Your lineup data is compelling! I don't know what happened after that Atlanta loss, but something has brought this team more together, at least on the court.

I have pulled myself back from the edge of the abyss. I guess I'll call myself cautiously optimistic. Let's see how the rest of the month goes.

Yeah, cautiously optimistic is a good way of putting it. Three straight wins does not mean all of our problems are solved. But the next time we have a bad loss, I'm not going to panic either. Perhaps we'll call that being cautiously pessimistic??

[Q-is-here]

Just a week or so ago the eternal opTIMist on this board was staring into the abyss, listing the flaws with this team, and ultimately pointing the finger at Julius. You know things are bad when Tim goes to a dark place! I wonder how he feels today?

Check this out. This is our starting Five's Net Rating from the past three regular seasons:
2023-24: Rudy, KAT, Jaden, Ant, Conley - Ortg=118.7, Drtg=110.8, Net Rating = +7.9
2024-25: Rudy, Randle, Jaden, Ant, Conley - Ortg=113.4, Drtg=110.2, Net Rating = +3.2
2025-26: Rudy, Randle, Jaden, Ant, DDV - Ortg=121.7, Drtg=111.1, Net Rating= +10.6

Now as long as this mostly holds over the next few weeks, does anyone really think Tim Connelly is going to make a big trade that would shake up the starting lineup?

And if you look at the prior two seasons in the playoffs, the starting lineup net rating is even better, as historically both Ant and Jaden raise their game in the playoffs.

That brings us to the bench. I'm still not convinced we have a playoff-caliber bench. I think the Naz-Conley-Bones-Clark bench is doing just fine for now, but I'm skeptical of their efficacy in the vice-grip of the playoffs. I still think Connelly may look at deals that could change the makeup of our bench.

I don't think a big trade is likely, however I myself am still skeptical that this all works with Randle.

I actually like what Randle does for the team, but there are 2 things I haven't been able to get past:

1) I don't like that he is the teams primary playmaker. Hes a legit good playmaking big but the team would still be better served with that role coming from the guard position
2) I firmly believe that there is legit 2 way, 2nd option buried in there with Jaden that will never be released if Randle continues to stand in the way.


All that said I'm still unconvinced that a trade is the correct answer to these problems

We may not like how it looks all the time, but the bottom line is this is the most effective starting lineup in the Finch/Ant era. Of course we still have a lot more of the season to go, but so far this is what the data shows.

[mjs34]

Your lineup data is compelling! I don't know what happened after that Atlanta loss, but something has brought this team more together, at least on the court.

I have pulled myself back from the edge of the abyss. I guess I'll call myself cautiously optimistic. Let's see how the rest of the month goes.

Yeah, cautiously optimistic is a good way of putting it. Three straight wins does not mean all of our problems are solved. But the next time we have a bad loss, I'm not going to panic either. Perhaps we'll call that being cautiously pessimistic??

I am not sure where we stand right now, but we had the third easiest schedule to date two weeks back. I think that has to be considered when looking at current net ratings. We have also been pretty lucky in meeting teams missing some of their top players.

[Q-is-here]

Your lineup data is compelling! I don't know what happened after that Atlanta loss, but something has brought this team more together, at least on the court.

I have pulled myself back from the edge of the abyss. I guess I'll call myself cautiously optimistic. Let's see how the rest of the month goes.

Yeah, cautiously optimistic is a good way of putting it. Three straight wins does not mean all of our problems are solved. But the next time we have a bad loss, I'm not going to panic either. Perhaps we'll call that being cautiously pessimistic??

I am not sure where we stand right now, but we had the third easiest schedule to date two weeks back. I think that has to be considered when looking at current net ratings. We have also been pretty lucky in meeting teams missing some of their top players.

Very true! So I should put you in the cautiously pessimistic camp then?

The two decisive Miami wins against a quality opponent is a reason for Tim's cautious optimism.

As for injuries, at what point do we start recognizing that our good health is a strategic advantage that may not be driven purely by luck? Is our medical and training staff onto something that differentiates it from other teams? I mean, it's been like this for a few seasons now, so I'm going to say staying (relatively) healthy is meritorious versus just purely getting lucky.

[AussieWolf3]

Just a week or so ago the eternal opTIMist on this board was staring into the abyss, listing the flaws with this team, and ultimately pointing the finger at Julius. You know things are bad when Tim goes to a dark place! I wonder how he feels today?

Check this out. This is our starting Five's Net Rating from the past three regular seasons:
2023-24: Rudy, KAT, Jaden, Ant, Conley - Ortg=118.7, Drtg=110.8, Net Rating = +7.9
2024-25: Rudy, Randle, Jaden, Ant, Conley - Ortg=113.4, Drtg=110.2, Net Rating = +3.2
2025-26: Rudy, Randle, Jaden, Ant, DDV - Ortg=121.7, Drtg=111.1, Net Rating= +10.6

Now as long as this mostly holds over the next few weeks, does anyone really think Tim Connelly is going to make a big trade that would shake up the starting lineup?

And if you look at the prior two seasons in the playoffs, the starting lineup net rating is even better, as historically both Ant and Jaden raise their game in the playoffs.

That brings us to the bench. I'm still not convinced we have a playoff-caliber bench. I think the Naz-Conley-Bones-Clark bench is doing just fine for now, but I'm skeptical of their efficacy in the vice-grip of the playoffs. I still think Connelly may look at deals that could change the makeup of our bench.

I don't think a big trade is likely, however I myself am still skeptical that this all works with Randle.

I actually like what Randle does for the team, but there are 2 things I haven't been able to get past:

1) I don't like that he is the teams primary playmaker. Hes a legit good playmaking big but the team would still be better served with that role coming from the guard position
2) I firmly believe that there is legit 2 way, 2nd option buried in there with Jaden that will never be released if Randle continues to stand in the way.


All that said I'm still unconvinced that a trade is the correct answer to these problems

We may not like how it looks all the time, but the bottom line is this is the most effective starting lineup in the Finch/Ant era. Of course we still have a lot more of the season to go, but so far this is what the data shows.

You're absolutely right, which is why I'm unconvinced of the trade option- particularly moving on from Randle.

I can offer a pretty fully throated endorsement of Jaden McDaniels and at the same time recognize that it's a pretty big leap of faith to believe he can more ably fill the PF/secondary scorer position than Julius.

The roster truly still puzzles me. I was ready to write up a full college paper dissertation of thread after the Atlanta game going over all of the problems with this team..... And then the last 3 games happened

[mjs34]

Yeah, cautiously optimistic is a good way of putting it. Three straight wins does not mean all of our problems are solved. But the next time we have a bad loss, I'm not going to panic either. Perhaps we'll call that being cautiously pessimistic??

I am not sure where we stand right now, but we had the third easiest schedule to date two weeks back. I think that has to be considered when looking at current net ratings. We have also been pretty lucky in meeting teams missing some of their top players.

Very true! So I should put you in the cautiously pessimistic camp then?

The two decisive Miami wins against a quality opponent is a reason for Tim's cautious optimism.

As for injuries, at what point do we start recognizing that our good health is a strategic advantage that may not be driven purely by luck? Is our medical and training staff onto something that differentiates it from other teams? I mean, it's been like this for a few seasons now, so I'm going to say staying (relatively) healthy is meritorious versus just purely getting lucky.

I think that is fair considering I had predicted one of the lower win totals.

I don't know if the health is due to staff or just having more durable players. Either way it may be one of the most important factors come playoff time.

[rapsuperstar31]

I am not sure where we stand right now, but we had the third easiest schedule to date two weeks back. I think that has to be considered when looking at current net ratings. We have also been pretty lucky in meeting teams missing some of their top players.

Very true! So I should put you in the cautiously pessimistic camp then?

The two decisive Miami wins against a quality opponent is a reason for Tim's cautious optimism.

As for injuries, at what point do we start recognizing that our good health is a strategic advantage that may not be driven purely by luck? Is our medical and training staff onto something that differentiates it from other teams? I mean, it's been like this for a few seasons now, so I'm going to say staying (relatively) healthy is meritorious versus just purely getting lucky.

I think that is fair considering I had predicted one of the lower win totals.

I don't know if the health is due to staff or just having more durable players. Either way it may be one of the most important factors come playoff time.

Seems to be the faster teams that are piling up the soft tissue injuries.

[Q-is-here]

I don't think a big trade is likely, however I myself am still skeptical that this all works with Randle.

I actually like what Randle does for the team, but there are 2 things I haven't been able to get past:

1) I don't like that he is the teams primary playmaker. Hes a legit good playmaking big but the team would still be better served with that role coming from the guard position
2) I firmly believe that there is legit 2 way, 2nd option buried in there with Jaden that will never be released if Randle continues to stand in the way.


All that said I'm still unconvinced that a trade is the correct answer to these problems

We may not like how it looks all the time, but the bottom line is this is the most effective starting lineup in the Finch/Ant era. Of course we still have a lot more of the season to go, but so far this is what the data shows.

You're absolutely right, which is why I'm unconvinced of the trade option- particularly moving on from Randle.

I can offer a pretty fully throated endorsement of Jaden McDaniels and at the same time recognize that it's a pretty big leap of faith to believe he can more ably fill the PF/secondary scorer position than Julius.

The roster truly still puzzles me. I was ready to write up a full college paper dissertation of thread after the Atlanta game going over all of the problems with this team..... And then the last 3 games happened

LOL, that is hilarious, and goes to show how melodramatic a full NBA season can be when you are a die-hard fan and pay attention to nearly every game. Last season was pretty bad with all the close losses in clutch time until suddenly they got their shit together in the final third and eventually got back to the WCF.