History Lesson: Unlucky Wolves vs. Lucky Lakers...

[AbeVigodaLive]

I've chronicled this to some degree previously. But, I thought it might be relevant as the Wolves try to gain ground in the standings over the next 26 games, first trying to overcome the Lakers immediately above them in the standings.

I don't think it's going to happen. Sorry guys. Basic history tells us that it's unlikely to happen.

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For almost my entire life... the Lakers have been good, arguably the greatest franchise ever. It didn't hurt that they became THE marquee place for free agents (and disgruntled superstars) to call home. Even more consistently... they've been lucky. There's no argument on that one though... no team has been "luckier" whether in single-game oddities (see 2002 Game 6, 2010 Game 7), season-long statistical anomalies (see 2013 + 2024), or even decades-long anomalies (see below).

We all use basketballreference.com. They have a neat little statistic called Expected Wins/Losses. It's been sort of revealing in just how different the Lakers are from the Timberwolves (historically... CONSISTENTLY) in winning more games than expected.

For example, this season the Lakers are not a strong team statistically. But damn... if they don't find ways to win. Currently, the Lakers are ranked #10 offensively and #23 defensively. The team's overall net rating is 0.0. Literally every statistic, including Expected W-L, shows the Lakers exactly as a .500 team.

Nope. Those crazy Lakers kids have won 6 more games than expected. 33 - 21.

Meanwhile, the Timberwolves are better on offense (#7) and defense (#8) than the Lakers. They have a +4.9 net rating. But they've won 2 fewer games than expected. 34 - 22.

Meh. Big deal, right? That stuff happens sometimes.
Except sometimes... it ALWAYS happens.

Lakers Expected W/L in recent PLAYOFF seasons.

+6 this season.
+6 last season
+5 in 2024
+1 in 2023
= in 2021 (72 games)
+4 in 2020
+2 in 2017
+1 in 2013
+5 in 2012 (66 games)
Total: +27 in playoff seasons. (+24 in all seasons since 2012)
- Never more than -2 in any season, including 55+-loss seasons since 2000.
- The Lakers were the league leader in exceeding their Expected Wins multiple times, including each of the past 3 seasons.

Conversely, Minnesota just hasn't been that lucky... ever?

-2 this season
-4 last season
-1 in 2024
+1 in 2023
-2 in 2022
-1 in 2021
-5 in 2020
-1 in 2019
= in 2018
-7 in 2017
-2 in 2016
-3 in 2015
-8 in 2014
-3 in 2013
-2 in 2012
Total: -40 (only one + season... and only by 1 game)

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But Shirley, that's just what happens when one arguably the league's greatest franchise is directly compared to arguably (formerly) the league's worst franchise, right? Ummm...

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This season, the Lakers lead the West at +6 wins.
The Spurs and Jazz are next at +2 wins.

But Shirley, that's a one-year anomaly, right?

Well, just last season, the Lakers were +6... and the next best WC playoff team was... 0. In fact, the other 9 playoff teams were a combined -13 with the Wolves (-4), Grizzlies (-4) and Clippers (-3) leading the way.

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But Shirley, that's just a two-year anomaly, right?

Well... over the past 3 seasons, the Lakers are +16 in Expected W-L. The next best team is +7 (Chicago). The 3rd best is only +3. Only LA and Chicago have been + all three seasons.

Lakers Luck.

Maybe the most consistent thing going in the NBA.

[60WinTim]

With the exception of last season's playoffs...

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/miiEjN-bLNM

ANTman, BATman, SUPERman, Lakers in 5.

[Coolbreeze44]

This is some really insightful stuff Abe. I'm not surprised in the least by it. In fact it's exactly what I would expect going all the way back to the early David Stern years. Man, they are just one lucky franchise. And I'm sure it has nothing to do with the size of their fanbase and TV market. Just pure unadulterated luck.

[FNG]

I'm the biggest anti-conspiracy guy on this board, but even I have to admit there's something quite peculiar going on with the Lakers. Tough to argue with the data you laid out. And I have them finishing a game ahead of us in my forecast, even though I think we are a far superior team (they can't defend at all).

NBA Radio talked about this yesterday as I was in my car...they were asking how the hell the Lakers could be 33-21 when their three stars have only played together 10 games (7-3 in those games) and they have a point differential of 0! I had breakfast this morning with a 92-year-old guy who is the only surviving Minneapolis Laker (25 bonus points to anyone who can name him), and he was marveling about the same thing. It's a peculiar phenomenon indeed.

I still think we'd kick their butts in the playoff if we played them...

[Coolbreeze44]

I'm the biggest anti-conspiracy guy on this board, but even I have to admit there's something quite peculiar going on with the Lakers. Tough to argue with the data you laid out. And I have them finishing a game ahead of us in my forecast, even though I think we are a far superior team (they can't defend at all).

NBA Radio talked about this yesterday as I was in my car...they were asking how the hell the Lakers could be 33-21 when their three stars have only played together 10 games (7-3 in those games) and they have a point differential of 0! I had breakfast this morning with a 92-year-old guy who is the only surviving Minneapolis Laker (25 bonus points to anyone who can name him), and he was marveling about the same thing. It's a peculiar phenomenon indeed.

I still think we'd kick their butts in the playoff if we played them...

Did Chuck feel young sitting next to you at the table?

[AbeVigodaLive]

This is some really insightful stuff Abe. I'm not surprised in the least by it. In fact it's exactly what I would expect going all the way back to the early David Stern years. Man, they are just one lucky franchise. And I'm sure it has nothing to do with the size of their fanbase and TV market. Just pure unadulterated luck.

Conversely, how are the Timberwolves consistently so bad (well... I know the many, many reasons for the first 30 years or so of the franchise)...

I don't think there's a bias against the Timberwolves. But the Wolves consistent run of losing more than expected is almost crazier than the Lakers in winning games.

New players. New coaches. New systems. New owners. Good teams. Bad teams. None of it matters. The Wolves are easily the worst in this category since Flip's first run.

- The Wolves have been + with Expected Wins ONCE in the past 20 years... at +1 in 2023. D. Casey/R. Wittman combo coaching staff was the last one.



[Note: For what it's worth... these are the two outlier franchises. BY A LOT in both directions. Most teams are a game above or below, seemingly random from season to season.]

[FNG]

I'm the biggest anti-conspiracy guy on this board, but even I have to admit there's something quite peculiar going on with the Lakers. Tough to argue with the data you laid out. And I have them finishing a game ahead of us in my forecast, even though I think we are a far superior team (they can't defend at all).

NBA Radio talked about this yesterday as I was in my car...they were asking how the hell the Lakers could be 33-21 when their three stars have only played together 10 games (7-3 in those games) and they have a point differential of 0! I had breakfast this morning with a 92-year-old guy who is the only surviving Minneapolis Laker (25 bonus points to anyone who can name him), and he was marveling about the same thing. It's a peculiar phenomenon indeed.

I still think we'd kick their butts in the playoff if we played them...

Did Chuck feel young sitting next to you at the table?

Hahaha...probably! 25 bonus points for Cool...although Chuck Mencel goes by Charley now, so I'm going to deduct 2 points. He's a Wolves' fan now and not a Laker's fan. Truly a blessed life...married to the love of his life since age 19 and 38 grandkids and great grandkids.

[AbeVigodaLive]

I'm the biggest anti-conspiracy guy on this board, but even I have to admit there's something quite peculiar going on with the Lakers. Tough to argue with the data you laid out. And I have them finishing a game ahead of us in my forecast, even though I think we are a far superior team (they can't defend at all).

NBA Radio talked about this yesterday as I was in my car...they were asking how the hell the Lakers could be 33-21 when their three stars have only played together 10 games (7-3 in those games) and they have a point differential of 0! I had breakfast this morning with a 92-year-old guy who is the only surviving Minneapolis Laker (25 bonus points to anyone who can name him), and he was marveling about the same thing. It's a peculiar phenomenon indeed.

I still think we'd kick their butts in the playoff if we played them...

Did Chuck feel young sitting next to you at the table?

Hahaha...probably! 25 bonus points for Cool...although Chuck Mencel goes by Charley now, so I'm going to deduct 2 points. He's a Wolves' fan now and not a Laker's fan. Truly a blessed life...married to the love of his life since age 19 and 38 grandkids and great grandkids.

Holy cow. That's a lot of grandkids.

I was gonna go with Tony Jaros. Mainly because I have an affinity for bottom-shelf gimmicky vodka drinks.

[AbeVigodaLive]

By the way... Lakers now +7 in real wins vs. expected wins. (San Antonio is next at +2. At least the Wolves aren't negative this season... +0.)

The Lakers are now 20 - 6 in "close games" this season.

Nothing shady in the close Houston game this week though. Luka Doncic is just too damn good. And as noted elsewhere on this site... Marcus Smart has really helped shore up the previously leaky Lakers defense.

He's going to need to hit big shots in the playoffs though. It's always interesting to see Smart in those moments. Anything can happen.

[thedoper]

By the way... Lakers now +7 in real wins vs. expected wins. (San Antonio is next at +2. At least the Wolves aren't negative this season... +0.)

The Lakers are now 20 - 6 in "close games" this season.

Nothing shady in the close Houston game this week though. Luka Doncic is just too damn good. And as noted elsewhere on this site... Marcus Smart has really helped shore up the previously leaky Lakers defense.

He's going to need to hit big shots in the playoffs though. It's always interesting to see Smart in those moments. Anything can happen.

Its nice to see Smart have a bit of a resurgence. His physical talent was always special, he really gave us grief last game stepping in for those charges.