The Ayo Mystery

[Q-is-here]

Further deep dive below, which shows the difference between how Ayo's team does when he's on the floor versus off the floor in offense and defense. To clarify, a negative number means the team is that many points per 100 possessions worse when he is ON the floor.

Season: Offensive Rating Differential/Defensive Rating Differential
'21-22: -4.8/-4.0
'22-23: -6.1/+.2
'23-24: -2.6/-1.2
'24-25: -2.6/-6.4
Bulls '25/26: -.3/+1.7
Wolves '25/26: -9.7/-7.2

In five seasons, Ayo has NEVER been a net positive on offense and has barely been a net positive on defense only twice. In other words, the team does worse on both sides of the ball when he comes into the game! Remember that most of his career has been spent with a mediocre Bulls team, so it's not like he was subbing in for some superstar.

The only smidgeon of hope is that he was pretty much a neutral presence for the Bulls this year...again, that's relative to the rest of the team. He still had a negative net rating while on the floor, but things weren't necessarily better when he sat either.

By the way, Coby White has been more of a plus-minus mixed bag in the seasons he overlapped with Ayo in Chicago. But the team was more often than not better when he was on the floor than off it. And guess who subbed for him quite a lot when he was off the floor?

[FNG]

I am as puzzled as everyone else, and I see this as a true concern. I have not seen much of his play on TV in recent games (damn you, Peacock), but I did watch him closely in person when we hosted the Clippers. Unlike Ant and Ju, I don't question his effort...he doesn't take plays off. And I don't question his athleticism...he's far from elite, but he's at least adequate. But I will say he looked lost at both ends of the court in the game I was at. If Ant has to point to where you need to be on defense and offense, there's something wrong! If he didn't have a long history of poor on/off numbers, I would have chalked it up to just not being familiar with his new teammates and our system. But I think we have to consider that he may just have a low basketball IQ, and that is what is holding him back.

I like the guy a lot so I hope he can turn things around, but this is something we can't ignore.

[Q-is-here]

I am as puzzled as everyone else, and I see this as a true concern. I have not seen much of his play on TV in recent games (damn you, Peacock), but I did watch him closely in person when we hosted the Clippers. Unlike Ant and Ju, I don't question his effort...he doesn't take plays off. And I don't question his athleticism...he's far from elite, but he's at least adequate. But I will say he looked lost at both ends of the court in the game I was at. If Ant has to point to where you need to be on defense and offense, there's something wrong! If he didn't have a long history of poor on/off numbers, I would have chalked it up to just not being familiar with his new teammates and our system. But I think we have to consider that he may just have a low basketball IQ, and that is what is holding him back.

I like the guy a lot so I hope he can turn things around, but this is something we can't ignore.

Ha, yeah, usually the only directing Ant does is to wave his team mates off so that he can go one on one while they scurry to a corner and shelter in place.

I haven't been all that impressed with his defense. I get that he works hard, but so did Malik Beasley. He is currently in the 22nd percentile on defense this season according to Estimated Plus Minus (that's combined Wolves and Bulls). To put that in perspective, Ant is in the 35th percentile and Julius in the 34th percentile.

[FNG]

I am as puzzled as everyone else, and I see this as a true concern. I have not seen much of his play on TV in recent games (damn you, Peacock), but I did watch him closely in person when we hosted the Clippers. Unlike Ant and Ju, I don't question his effort...he doesn't take plays off. And I don't question his athleticism...he's far from elite, but he's at least adequate. But I will say he looked lost at both ends of the court in the game I was at. If Ant has to point to where you need to be on defense and offense, there's something wrong! If he didn't have a long history of poor on/off numbers, I would have chalked it up to just not being familiar with his new teammates and our system. But I think we have to consider that he may just have a low basketball IQ, and that is what is holding him back.

I like the guy a lot so I hope he can turn things around, but this is something we can't ignore.

Ha, yeah, usually the only directing Ant does is to wave his team mates off so that he can go one on one while they scurry to a corner and shelter in place.

I haven't been all that impressed with his defense. I get that he works hard, but so did Malik Beasley. He is currently in the 22nd percentile on defense this season according to Estimated Plus Minus (that's combined Wolves and Bulls). To put that in perspective, Ant is in the 35th percentile and Julius in the 34th percentile.

Yes, I'm far from an expert on Ayo yet (just haven't seen enough yet), but I get more Beasley/Naz vibes from him on defense than Ju/Ant. I think Beasley and Naz both work(ed) hard on defense, but just aren't very effective. Ju and Ant have shown me they can be effective on defense when they want to...there just isn't enough "want to" there.

[rapsuperstar31]

I am as puzzled as everyone else, and I see this as a true concern. I have not seen much of his play on TV in recent games (damn you, Peacock), but I did watch him closely in person when we hosted the Clippers. Unlike Ant and Ju, I don't question his effort...he doesn't take plays off. And I don't question his athleticism...he's far from elite, but he's at least adequate. But I will say he looked lost at both ends of the court in the game I was at. If Ant has to point to where you need to be on defense and offense, there's something wrong! If he didn't have a long history of poor on/off numbers, I would have chalked it up to just not being familiar with his new teammates and our system. But I think we have to consider that he may just have a low basketball IQ, and that is what is holding him back.

I like the guy a lot so I hope he can turn things around, but this is something we can't ignore.

Ha, yeah, usually the only directing Ant does is to wave his team mates off so that he can go one on one while they scurry to a corner and shelter in place.

I haven't been all that impressed with his defense. I get that he works hard, but so did Malik Beasley. He is currently in the 22nd percentile on defense this season according to Estimated Plus Minus (that's combined Wolves and Bulls). To put that in perspective, Ant is in the 35th percentile and Julius in the 34th percentile.

I haven't focused too much on his defense, I noticed he struggled just like Ant did trying to guard the taller Middleton in the post. I've also seen him navigate multiple screens including double screens where he zips right through it and is right on the players hip he's defending with ease which really reminds me of NAW. His one on one defense looks really good in the small sample size he's been here. I will have to pay attention if he's getting lost on help defensive schemes or not doing something. I have seen him jump to the ground for a few loose balls and hustle for the ball. When we played Philly, they were so hot that they were making very tough shots over Ayo and others. Jim Pete even said you can't do more on a defensive play that ended in a bucket. Finch had nothing but praise for him in his after game press conference saying Ayo "he's been great, competing on defense and fitting right into what we need?

[Lipoli390]

Ayo’s consistently negative plus/minus is definitely a concern and it’s perplexing. But there’s no questioning Ayo’s effort and competitiveness on the defensive side of the ball. His athleticism and length seem fully adequate to defend the PG and SG positions - sometimes the SF position. So by default, that leaves a question mark over his basketball IQ. I don’t know how else to explain it.

Nevertheless, i remain optimistic. I’ll take a player with the physical tools AND consistent competitive intensity/effort any day of the week over the high-IQ physically gifted player whose effort comes and goes. Even worse are the Wes Johnson/Derrick Williams types whose effort NEVER comes. My sense is that a lower IQ player with great competitive drive like Ayo’s eventually figures it out. That sort of player just hits his prime later in his career than others. So I remain all in on re-signing Ayo in the offseason if the price is reasonable and I’m hopeful he’ll help us win games and advance in the playoffs this season.

I’m more concerned about Ant’s and Ju’s inconsistent defensive effort and their consistent iso ball tendencies. Those are the two things that have to change for this team to win a championship in my view. I don’t know how to address the inconsistent defensive effort of those two players although we could address Randle’s effort issue by trading him after the season. Replacing Finch strikes me as the only thing we can do to fully address both issues (defensive effort and iso ball). Regarding Ant’s defensive effort, perhaps a new head coach, if he’s the right one, could get Ant to play with Ayo’s defensive effort on a consistent basis. Offensively, I recall that the Bulls brought in Phil Jackson to address MJ’s iso ball tendencies. Phil’s coaching, including the triangle offense, improved the team’s offense and was key to their eventual playoff success. It also unlocked Pippen’s offensive game, which was key to their success. I’m not advocating for the triangle offense but trading Randle and curtailing or mitigating Ant’s iso ball and having an offense with far more ball movement would improve this team’s offense. I think it would also unlock Jaden’s offensive game just as Phil unlocked Pippen’s, which would further improve the team’s offense overall.

I suppose another approach to addressing Ant’s iso ball tendencies would be an elite true PG who would control the ball and run the offense. Pippen essentially became the Bulls de facto PG, a role he was suited to since he started as a PG in high school and college. I don’t see Jaden having the same lead guard capabilities. I’d love to see Ant paired with Cade Cunningham for example but of course that will never happen.

Those are my thoughts right now. Unfortunately, watching this team post Ayo trade, I don’t see anything that gives me confidence in this team’s championship aspirations this season. But Ant is a great player and this team has a lot of talent. So I’m not giving up on this season and if we fall short I think some offseason moves short of blowing it up could better position this team for a championship run next season. However, if the team collapses this season and ends up finishing 5th or 6th and then fails to advance more than one round in the playoffs, a mini-blowup might be necessary.

[rapsuperstar31]

Ayo’s consistently negative plus/minus is definitely a concern and it’s perplexing. But there’s no questioning Ayo’s effort and competitiveness on the defensive side of the ball. His athleticism and length seem fully adequate to defend the PG and SG positions - sometimes the SF position. So by default, that leaves a question mark over his basketball IQ. I don’t know how else to explain it.

Nevertheless, i remain optimistic. I’ll take a player with the physical tools AND consistent competitive intensity/effort any day of the week over the high-IQ physically gifted player whose effort comes and goes. Even worse are the Wes Johnson/Derrick Williams types whose effort NEVER comes. My sense is that a lower IQ player with great competitive drive like Ayo’s eventually figures it out. That sort of player just hits his prime later in his career than others. So I remain all in on re-signing Ayo in the offseason if the price is reasonable and I’m hopeful he’ll help us win games and advance in the playoffs this season.

I’m more concerned about Ant’s and Ju’s inconsistent defensive effort and their consistent iso ball tendencies. Those are the two things that have to change for this team to win a championship in my view. I don’t know how to address the inconsistent defensive effort of those two players although we could address Randle’s effort issue by trading him after the season. Replacing Finch strikes me as the only thing we can do to fully address both issues (defensive effort and iso ball). Regarding Ant’s defensive effort, perhaps a new head coach, if he’s the right one, could get Ant to play with Ayo’s defensive effort on a consistent basis. Offensively, I recall that the Bulls brought in Phil Jackson to address MJ’s iso ball tendencies. Phil’s coaching, including the triangle offense, improved the team’s offense and was key to their eventual playoff success. It also unlocked Pippen’s offensive game, which was key to their success. I’m not advocating for the triangle offense but trading Randle and curtailing or mitigating Ant’s iso ball and having an offense with far more ball movement would improve this team’s offense. I think it would also unlock Jaden’s offensive game just as Phil unlocked Pippen’s, which would further improve the team’s offense overall.

I suppose another approach to addressing Ant’s iso ball tendencies would be an elite true PG who would control the ball and run the offense. Pippen essentially became the Bulls de facto PG, a role he was suited to since he started as a PG in high school and college. I don’t see Jaden having the same lead guard capabilities. I’d love to see Ant paired with Cade Cunningham for example but of course that will never happen.

Those are my thoughts right now. Unfortunately, watching this team post Ayo trade, I don’t see anything that gives me confidence in this team’s championship aspirations this season. But Ant is a great player and this team has a lot of talent. So I’m not giving up on this season and if we fall short I think some offseason moves short of blowing it up could better position this team for a championship run next season. However, if the team collapses this season and ends up finishing 5th or 6th and then fails to advance more than one round in the playoffs, a mini-blowup might be necessary.

Luka is a very iso player, and his best seasons were a WCF run with Brunson, and a finals run with Kyrie. I didn't pay attention to the Brunson run, but in the Kyrie run Iriving was able to help whenever Luka struggled. Luka also has a point guard in Reaves that is averaging 25 points per game, although I don't think they are very good this year. I really like Randle, but I do think a point guard as the 2nd main piece is best for not only Ant but also for Jaden. Jaden is best when he can roam on defense, and he struggles to contain the best players in the league (as do all defenders) I keep hoping Ayo can defend SGA when the time comes, to make life easier for Jaden to roam.

[Coolbreeze44]

Someone should ask members of the Bulls board what they think about this. Maybe someone who has watched him a lot longer could offer some insight.

[Wolvesfan21]

Low BB IQ has to be it, then not having elite athleticism to make up for being out of position too often. You can get away with avg/below avg athleticism like say Conley did for years, but he knew how to play and where to be, especially on defense.

I still think CW would have been better for us, but oh well. I'm still happy with the trade overall as I think he could figure things out eventually. New team and system too, so I can see why he is struggling a bit more to start here.

[Lipoli390]

Low BB IQ has to be it, then not having elite athleticism to make up for being out of position too often. You can get away with avg/below avg athleticism like say Conley did for years, but he knew how to play and where to be, especially on defense.

I still think CW would have been better for us, but oh well. I'm still happy with the trade overall as I think he could figure things out eventually. New team and system too, so I can see why he is struggling a bit more to start here.

If given a choice of any of the Bulls guards other than Giddy, Tre Jones would have been my first choice. Of course, we don’t know whether he was available for what we gave up. If so and we chose Ayo instead, then I think that was a mistake. But I still like the deal and likely Ayo.