Why Ant is not an MVP candidate

[Q-is-here]

I'm confused by the on/off number

https://3stepsbasket.com/player/anthony ... ason=nba26
Has him with a +4. Not an elite number, but still good he. That number has also risen sharply over the last few month as Ant has been one of the best on the team in that regard over that span.

Not saying you're wrong, just that a different source has different (very different) information

Net Rating = Team Points per 100 possessions minus Opponent Points per 100 possessions while player is ON the court.

Net On/Off Rating = Player Net Rating (using formula above) minus Team net rating while player is OFF the court.

Ant has a positive Net Rating, but a negative Net On/Off Rating. They are two different metrics.

Click the link I embedded, it has both metrics.
Ant net is 4.6 and per 100 on/off is +4

I missed that. I looked up their glossary and it didn't explain how they came up with On-Off. One difference could be that FNG's metric (from b-ball reference) includes the games Ant sat out as "OFF" whereas your stat excluded those. You might recall there were a few blowouts earlier in the season where Ant sat. That would negatively affect his Net On/Off rating since the team did so well. But I'm just guessing....

[AussieWolf3]

Net Rating = Team Points per 100 possessions minus Opponent Points per 100 possessions while player is ON the court.

Net On/Off Rating = Player Net Rating (using formula above) minus Team net rating while player is OFF the court.

Ant has a positive Net Rating, but a negative Net On/Off Rating. They are two different metrics.

Click the link I embedded, it has both metrics.
Ant net is 4.6 and per 100 on/off is +4

I missed that. I looked up their glossary and it didn't explain how they came up with On-Off. One difference could be that FNG's metric (from b-ball reference) includes the games Ant sat out as "OFF" whereas your stat excluded those. You might recall there were a few blowouts earlier in the season where Ant sat. That would negatively affect his Net On/Off rating since the team did so well. But I'm just guessing....

Yeah I'm not sure what it is either, and again I'm not even suggesting that 3 steps has a better method to measure- I'm just confused by the difference and I honestly haven't been able to find other places with on,/off numbers

[Q-is-here]

Click the link I embedded, it has both metrics.
Ant net is 4.6 and per 100 on/off is +4

I missed that. I looked up their glossary and it didn't explain how they came up with On-Off. One difference could be that FNG's metric (from b-ball reference) includes the games Ant sat out as "OFF" whereas your stat excluded those. You might recall there were a few blowouts earlier in the season where Ant sat. That would negatively affect his Net On/Off rating since the team did so well. But I'm just guessing....

Yeah I'm not sure what it is either, and again I'm not even suggesting that 3 steps has a better method to measure- I'm just confused by the difference and I honestly haven't been able to find other places with on,/off numbers

It's kind of a weird stat to use to be honest. I mentioned earlier in the thread how both Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum had negative On/Off ratings the year they won the title. Using FNG's logic, they should have hardly made a dent in the playoffs much less decisively win the Finals.

But it was actually a GOOD thing because it meant they had one hell of a supporting cast that wouldn't crumble just because they weren't in the game. Jokic's is off the charts both because he really is that good AND because Denver has historically had a very thin bench where they had to "survive" the non-Jokic minutes.

I agree that Ant isn't an MVP-caliber player this year, but you can simply look at any number of other stats like PER or Box Score Plus-Minus or even your favorite Net Points and see that he isn't a top 5 player yet.

[AussieWolf3]

I agree that Ant isn't an MVP candidate this year, but I think it's fair to say that he has put himself in the top 5 discussion- and most pundits agree.

Jokic
SGA
Gannis
Luka
Webby/Ant
Kawhi/Curry/Cade

I'm probably forgetting folks but I'm comfortable putting Ant in that group and tbh Webby has probably moved himself higher that I have him here

[AussieWolf3]

For what it's worth Ant is 2nd to Rudy on the team in Net Rating since January 15th (arbitrary date I know)- 6.6 and 6.5 respectively.

I bring it up because Ant has played much better recently and it's shows in several metrics

[FNG]

Dane and Kyle's pod after the 3 losses matched the current gloominess on this board. I'm putting this in the Ant thread because much of the pod was about him. Don't get me wrong...I think the biggest problem currently is Julius's poor play at both ends. But the first two issues they raised on their pod pointed at Ant.

Ant's unwillingness to share the ball: Kyle talked about a stat which I haven't heard mentioned before. The Wolves are 26-13 when Ant scores fewer than 30 points, and only 14-13 when he scores 30 or more. Further, they are 28-7 during Ant's career when he has 7 or more assists (but none this year). It's fun when Ant goes off in a game, but the fact is we are only a .500 team when he does. But when Ant gets others involved, we win 2 out of every three games, a winning percentage that only the Pistons, Thunder and Spurs have exceeded this season. It's frustrating to watch the other 4 players just standing around when Ant is having one of his big scoring games. But can you blame them? They know they're not going to get the ball, or if they do, it will be with a second left on the clock.

Not following the game plan: How often have we heard Ant say after a loss "the coaches put together a good game plan, but we didn't follow it". Dane and Kyle described what the Wolves' game plan looks like. It's not just a discussion in the locker room pre-game. It's a book that every player has in his hands several hours before every game. And who do you think is least likely to not follow the game plan? Ju might be a candidate, but I would venture a guess that Ant is talking about himself. Finchy wants ball movement and getting everyone involved, and that's just not Ant's game. He's said several times post-game that he wants to take every shot!

Not having a true PG is a problem, and it's even a bigger problem when a natural SG like Ant is pushed into playing the PG role. For one thing, a team's PG is usually (or at least often) the team's smartest player. Does anyone here think Ant is our smartest player? Our most talented for sure. But I would say he has the lowest basketball IQ on the team. Think about how much smoother our offense looked against the Clippers when Kyle was our primary ball handler and Ant was playing more off ball.

Dane and Kyle talked about why the Wolves don't do to other teams what they do to Ant...run two players at him when he has the ball. And they said the answer is because it's too easy for a smart player to get the ball to an open teammate if he is doubled. But Ant is not a smart player, and we're forcing him to play a position that requires intelligence.

The solution? I don't know. As I've said in the past two GDTs, I would give SloMo more minutes at PG. But if Finchy is going to stay with the same starting five (and I see no reason that he shouldn't), Donte, Ju or Jaden should bring the ball up the court, and Ant should be told to work hard to get open as a true SG.

Dane and Kyle also talked about how dreadful both Ant and Ju have been on defense this season, and I agree. But I expect at least Ant to play decent defense in the playoffs like he has the past two years. But will he share the ball? I think the answer to that question will determine if we make another deep run in the playoffs this season.

[Wolvesfan21]

Dane and Kyle's pod after the 3 losses matched the current gloominess on this board. I'm putting this in the Ant thread because much of the pod was about him. Don't get me wrong...I think the biggest problem currently is Julius's poor play at both ends. But the first two issues they raised on their pod pointed at Ant.

Ant's unwillingness to share the ball: Kyle talked about a stat which I haven't heard mentioned before. The Wolves are 26-13 when Ant scores fewer than 30 points, and only 14-13 when he scores 30 or more. Further, they are 28-7 during Ant's career when he has 7 or more assists (but none this year). It's fun when Ant goes off in a game, but the fact is we are only a .500 team when he does. But when Ant gets others involved, we win 2 out of every three games, a winning percentage that only the Pistons, Thunder and Spurs have exceeded this season. It's frustrating to watch the other 4 players just standing around when Ant is having one of his big scoring games. But can you blame them? They know they're not going to get the ball, or if they do, it will be with a second left on the clock.

Not following the game plan: How often have we heard Ant say after a loss "the coaches put together a good game plan, but we didn't follow it". Dane and Kyle described what the Wolves' game plan looks like. It's not just a discussion in the locker room pre-game. It's a book that every player has in his hands several hours before every game. And who do you think is least likely to not follow the game plan? Ju might be a candidate, but I would venture a guess that Ant is talking about himself. Finchy wants ball movement and getting everyone involved, and that's just not Ant's game. He's said several times post-game that he wants to take every shot!

Not having a true PG is a problem, and it's even a bigger problem when a natural SG like Ant is pushed into playing the PG role. For one thing, a team's PG is usually (or at least often) the team's smartest player. Does anyone here think Ant is our smartest player? Our most talented for sure. But I would say he has the lowest basketball IQ on the team. Think about how much smoother our offense looked against the Clippers when Kyle was our primary ball handler and Ant was playing more off ball.

Dane and Kyle talked about why the Wolves don't do to other teams what they do to Ant...run two players at him when he has the ball. And they said the answer is because it's too easy for a smart player to get the ball to an open teammate if he is doubled. But Ant is not a smart player, and we're forcing him to play a position that requires intelligence.

The solution? I don't know. As I've said in the past two GDTs, I would give SloMo more minutes at PG. But if Finchy is going to stay with the same starting five (and I see no reason that he shouldn't), Donte, Ju or Jaden should bring the ball up the court, and Ant should be told to work hard to get open as a true SG.

Dane and Kyle also talked about how dreadful both Ant and Ju have been on defense this season, and I agree. But I expect at least Ant to play decent defense in the playoffs like he has the past two years. But will he share the ball? I think the answer to that question will determine if we make another deep run in the playoffs this season.

My only slight counterpoint is guys have to hit shots in order for an assist to count. Since the guys are hitting shots, we are probably going to also win. There really should be a potential assist stat. Maybe even not count assists that are highly contested.

It was similar to the Clark stat earlier this season, we won a huge number of games he played so and so minutes, but maybe he was simply playing well those games on both sides, thus getting more minutes. Not getting minutes is why we won, he played well, thats why we won. Him getting minutes was simply a by product.

Now saying that, I don't disagree overall. That Ant should share the ball more and get his teammates going. The taking a high volume of shots and playing bad defense is nearing Zach Lavine territory.

So I more so point to his lack of effort on defense as a huge reason we lose games. He ups that intensity and other follow, making everyone better. He plays like Lavine (chucker no defense) and we are getting worse results.

[FNG]

Dane and Kyle's pod after the 3 losses matched the current gloominess on this board. I'm putting this in the Ant thread because much of the pod was about him. Don't get me wrong...I think the biggest problem currently is Julius's poor play at both ends. But the first two issues they raised on their pod pointed at Ant.

Ant's unwillingness to share the ball: Kyle talked about a stat which I haven't heard mentioned before. The Wolves are 26-13 when Ant scores fewer than 30 points, and only 14-13 when he scores 30 or more. Further, they are 28-7 during Ant's career when he has 7 or more assists (but none this year). It's fun when Ant goes off in a game, but the fact is we are only a .500 team when he does. But when Ant gets others involved, we win 2 out of every three games, a winning percentage that only the Pistons, Thunder and Spurs have exceeded this season. It's frustrating to watch the other 4 players just standing around when Ant is having one of his big scoring games. But can you blame them? They know they're not going to get the ball, or if they do, it will be with a second left on the clock.

Not following the game plan: How often have we heard Ant say after a loss "the coaches put together a good game plan, but we didn't follow it". Dane and Kyle described what the Wolves' game plan looks like. It's not just a discussion in the locker room pre-game. It's a book that every player has in his hands several hours before every game. And who do you think is least likely to not follow the game plan? Ju might be a candidate, but I would venture a guess that Ant is talking about himself. Finchy wants ball movement and getting everyone involved, and that's just not Ant's game. He's said several times post-game that he wants to take every shot!

Not having a true PG is a problem, and it's even a bigger problem when a natural SG like Ant is pushed into playing the PG role. For one thing, a team's PG is usually (or at least often) the team's smartest player. Does anyone here think Ant is our smartest player? Our most talented for sure. But I would say he has the lowest basketball IQ on the team. Think about how much smoother our offense looked against the Clippers when Kyle was our primary ball handler and Ant was playing more off ball.

Dane and Kyle talked about why the Wolves don't do to other teams what they do to Ant...run two players at him when he has the ball. And they said the answer is because it's too easy for a smart player to get the ball to an open teammate if he is doubled. But Ant is not a smart player, and we're forcing him to play a position that requires intelligence.

The solution? I don't know. As I've said in the past two GDTs, I would give SloMo more minutes at PG. But if Finchy is going to stay with the same starting five (and I see no reason that he shouldn't), Donte, Ju or Jaden should bring the ball up the court, and Ant should be told to work hard to get open as a true SG.

Dane and Kyle also talked about how dreadful both Ant and Ju have been on defense this season, and I agree. But I expect at least Ant to play decent defense in the playoffs like he has the past two years. But will he share the ball? I think the answer to that question will determine if we make another deep run in the playoffs this season.

My only slight counterpoint is guys have to hit shots in order for an assist to count. Since the guys are hitting shots, we are probably going to also win. There really should be a potential assist stat. Maybe even not count assists that are highly contested.

It was similar to the Clark stat earlier this season, we won a huge number of games he played so and so minutes, but maybe he was simply playing well those games on both sides, thus getting more minutes. Not getting minutes is why we won, he played well, thats why we won. Him getting minutes was simply a by product.

Now saying that, I don't disagree overall. That Ant should share the ball more and get his teammates going. The taking a high volume of shots and playing bad defense is nearing Zach Lavine territory.

So I more so point to his lack of effort on defense as a huge reason we lose games. He ups that intensity and other follow, making everyone better. He plays like Lavine (chucker no defense) and we are getting worse results.

Yeah, Ant might be considered a rich man's Zach Lavine, which is far from the worst thing in the league. But as to your point about the guys having to hit shots, only the Lakers and the Nuggets have a higher shooting percentage than the Wolves' 48.4%, and Ant is barely above average on the team at 49.2%. I'll grant that Ant is better than anyone on the team in creating his own shot, but he's no better than average in making his shots. Getting the ball to open teammates would do so much for this offense.

[Wolvesfan21]

Dane and Kyle's pod after the 3 losses matched the current gloominess on this board. I'm putting this in the Ant thread because much of the pod was about him. Don't get me wrong...I think the biggest problem currently is Julius's poor play at both ends. But the first two issues they raised on their pod pointed at Ant.

Ant's unwillingness to share the ball: Kyle talked about a stat which I haven't heard mentioned before. The Wolves are 26-13 when Ant scores fewer than 30 points, and only 14-13 when he scores 30 or more. Further, they are 28-7 during Ant's career when he has 7 or more assists (but none this year). It's fun when Ant goes off in a game, but the fact is we are only a .500 team when he does. But when Ant gets others involved, we win 2 out of every three games, a winning percentage that only the Pistons, Thunder and Spurs have exceeded this season. It's frustrating to watch the other 4 players just standing around when Ant is having one of his big scoring games. But can you blame them? They know they're not going to get the ball, or if they do, it will be with a second left on the clock.

Not following the game plan: How often have we heard Ant say after a loss "the coaches put together a good game plan, but we didn't follow it". Dane and Kyle described what the Wolves' game plan looks like. It's not just a discussion in the locker room pre-game. It's a book that every player has in his hands several hours before every game. And who do you think is least likely to not follow the game plan? Ju might be a candidate, but I would venture a guess that Ant is talking about himself. Finchy wants ball movement and getting everyone involved, and that's just not Ant's game. He's said several times post-game that he wants to take every shot!

Not having a true PG is a problem, and it's even a bigger problem when a natural SG like Ant is pushed into playing the PG role. For one thing, a team's PG is usually (or at least often) the team's smartest player. Does anyone here think Ant is our smartest player? Our most talented for sure. But I would say he has the lowest basketball IQ on the team. Think about how much smoother our offense looked against the Clippers when Kyle was our primary ball handler and Ant was playing more off ball.

Dane and Kyle talked about why the Wolves don't do to other teams what they do to Ant...run two players at him when he has the ball. And they said the answer is because it's too easy for a smart player to get the ball to an open teammate if he is doubled. But Ant is not a smart player, and we're forcing him to play a position that requires intelligence.

The solution? I don't know. As I've said in the past two GDTs, I would give SloMo more minutes at PG. But if Finchy is going to stay with the same starting five (and I see no reason that he shouldn't), Donte, Ju or Jaden should bring the ball up the court, and Ant should be told to work hard to get open as a true SG.

Dane and Kyle also talked about how dreadful both Ant and Ju have been on defense this season, and I agree. But I expect at least Ant to play decent defense in the playoffs like he has the past two years. But will he share the ball? I think the answer to that question will determine if we make another deep run in the playoffs this season.

My only slight counterpoint is guys have to hit shots in order for an assist to count. Since the guys are hitting shots, we are probably going to also win. There really should be a potential assist stat. Maybe even not count assists that are highly contested.

It was similar to the Clark stat earlier this season, we won a huge number of games he played so and so minutes, but maybe he was simply playing well those games on both sides, thus getting more minutes. Not getting minutes is why we won, he played well, thats why we won. Him getting minutes was simply a by product.

Now saying that, I don't disagree overall. That Ant should share the ball more and get his teammates going. The taking a high volume of shots and playing bad defense is nearing Zach Lavine territory.

So I more so point to his lack of effort on defense as a huge reason we lose games. He ups that intensity and other follow, making everyone better. He plays like Lavine (chucker no defense) and we are getting worse results.

Yeah, Ant might be considered a rich man's Zach Lavine, which is far from the worst thing in the league. But as to your point about the guys having to hit shots, only the Lakers and the Nuggets have a higher shooting percentage than the Wolves' 48.4%, and Ant is barely above average on the team at 49.2%. I'll grant that Ant is better than anyone on the team in creating his own shot, but he's no better than average in making his shots. Getting the ball to open teammates would do so much for this offense.

Yeah, I agree he is more skilled then Lavine, all around really scoring at all levels and passing well. Even his low effort defensive games are probably better. He does give some effort, it's just obviously no where near what he is capable of.

[AussieWolf3]

Yeah, Ant might be considered a rich man's Zach Lavine, which is far from the worst thing in the league. But as to your point about the guys having to hit shots, only the Lakers and the Nuggets have a higher shooting percentage than the Wolves' 48.4%, and Ant is barely above average on the team at 49.2%. I'll grant that Ant is better than anyone on the team in creating his own shot, but he's no better than average in making his shots. Getting the ball to open teammates would do so much for this offense.

This is an extremely disingenuous representation of how basketball even works. FG% isn't all the helpful of a stat either cause it explains nothing about what kind of shot was taken.

Anyway, I listened to the episode as well and it was certainly gloomy haha.

I'll point out however, that even Dane mentioned -and I agree- that the difficulty with beating two on the ball defences for this team is that the outlet is often Rudy.....which when it doesn't work is pretty ugly, which lowers confidence in future possessions.

In both the Lakers game and Clippers game, Ant actually tried several times to get Rudy the ball out of the double team and I don't think a single on of those possessions led to a positive outcome.

Now I'm not really trying to defend Ant cause his defense was just atrocious in the clippers game, just awful, and I also really don't understand how he is such a bad passer- and seemingly worse this year. In the past he's also been pretty good at drive and kicks to the corner- which is a play that has almost completely disappeared. He also did all this work on his mid game and I really hoped that would open up playmaking from that spot of the floor, lobs in particular, which just hasn't happened.

For me, at the end of the day, there are fundamental problems with the roster and executing within its context. I actually wonder if this isnt a least part of the reason for the difficultly or unwillingness to follow the game plan.