Will the switch be flipped? Nuggets/Wolves Game 1

[AussieWolf3]

I don't think we can have it both ways. If you want to claim Ant is a top 5 player in the league, You have to stop making excuses for him every time he doesn't perform like a top 5 player. He's the best we have but it's time to show what he really has. One year it was the back injury, which I didn't buy, this year it's the knee which I'm sure is hindering him. It's his 6th year in the league, he's a full fledged veteran now. True great players impose their will in the playoffs, and show you why they're great. We are still waiting while Wolves fans insist this guy has the elite chops. Maybe instead of Shai, he's more Donovan Mitchell. Nothing wrong with that but the excuses need to end.

To be clear, I wasn't making excuses. For one- I don't think he's top 5. If I really sat down and put some work into I'm willing to bet he'd come in around 8th or 9th for me, but that's also pretty irrelevant to what I was saying --- not that you were directly addressing me, I take your comment as a general one.

What I'm saying is almost no player is all of the things everyone wishes Ant to be --- point guard, bucket, elite defender, play fast, get to the rim, great in the clutch, shoot middys, shoot treys, great leader --- all time greats aren't ALL of these things and to be honest there are times where folks complain that he isn't all of these things.

So I'm just talking about realistic expectations, and to your point about "imposing their will in the playoffs"..... Well hasn't he? Unless all you mean by that is, "win a championship" than I think there is an incredibly legitimate argument to be made that he's imposed his will every year in the playoffs.

Anyway, he needs to be better if they're to win, that I won't argue. If he's hurt, it is what it is. If he's still "finding his rhythm" or whatever than that's on him to some extent for not being more prepared.

I personally really hope it isn't the knee cause I don't want to have to look back on this year wondering what could have been. I think this is a pivotal legacy year for Ant, and to be honest... I'm not sure he sees it that way

[Coolbreeze44]

I don't think we can have it both ways. If you want to claim Ant is a top 5 player in the league, You have to stop making excuses for him every time he doesn't perform like a top 5 player. He's the best we have but it's time to show what he really has. One year it was the back injury, which I didn't buy, this year it's the knee which I'm sure is hindering him. It's his 6th year in the league, he's a full fledged veteran now. True great players impose their will in the playoffs, and show you why they're great. We are still waiting while Wolves fans insist this guy has the elite chops. Maybe instead of Shai, he's more Donovan Mitchell. Nothing wrong with that but the excuses need to end.

To be clear, I wasn't making excuses. For one- I don't think he's top 5. If I really sat down and put some work into I'm willing to bet he'd come in around 8th or 9th for me, but that's also pretty irrelevant to what I was saying --- not that you were directly addressing me, I take your comment as a general one.

What I'm saying is almost no player is all of the things everyone wishes Ant to be --- point guard, bucket, elite defender, play fast, get to the rim, great in the clutch, shoot middys, shoot treys, great leader --- all time greats aren't ALL of these things and to be honest there are times where folks complain that he isn't all of these things.

So I'm just talking about realistic expectations, and to your point about "imposing their will in the playoffs"..... Well hasn't he? Unless all you mean by that is, "win a championship" than I think there is an incredibly legitimate argument to be made that he's imposed his will every year in the playoffs.

Anyway, he needs to be better if they're to win, that I won't argue. If he's hurt, it is what it is. If he's still "finding his rhythm" or whatever than that's on him to some extent for not being more prepared.

I personally really hope it isn't the knee cause I don't want to have to look back on this year wondering what could have been. I think this is a pivotal legacy year for Ant, and to be honest... I'm not sure he sees it that way

If he's really in that 8th or 9th best player space, the Wolves and the fanbase should not consider him untradeable.

[AussieWolf3]

I don't think we can have it both ways. If you want to claim Ant is a top 5 player in the league, You have to stop making excuses for him every time he doesn't perform like a top 5 player. He's the best we have but it's time to show what he really has. One year it was the back injury, which I didn't buy, this year it's the knee which I'm sure is hindering him. It's his 6th year in the league, he's a full fledged veteran now. True great players impose their will in the playoffs, and show you why they're great. We are still waiting while Wolves fans insist this guy has the elite chops. Maybe instead of Shai, he's more Donovan Mitchell. Nothing wrong with that but the excuses need to end.

To be clear, I wasn't making excuses. For one- I don't think he's top 5. If I really sat down and put some work into I'm willing to bet he'd come in around 8th or 9th for me, but that's also pretty irrelevant to what I was saying --- not that you were directly addressing me, I take your comment as a general one.

What I'm saying is almost no player is all of the things everyone wishes Ant to be --- point guard, bucket, elite defender, play fast, get to the rim, great in the clutch, shoot middys, shoot treys, great leader --- all time greats aren't ALL of these things and to be honest there are times where folks complain that he isn't all of these things.

So I'm just talking about realistic expectations, and to your point about "imposing their will in the playoffs"..... Well hasn't he? Unless all you mean by that is, "win a championship" than I think there is an incredibly legitimate argument to be made that he's imposed his will every year in the playoffs.

Anyway, he needs to be better if they're to win, that I won't argue. If he's hurt, it is what it is. If he's still "finding his rhythm" or whatever than that's on him to some extent for not being more prepared.

I personally really hope it isn't the knee cause I don't want to have to look back on this year wondering what could have been. I think this is a pivotal legacy year for Ant, and to be honest... I'm not sure he sees it that way

If he's really in that 8th or 9th best player space, the Wolves and the fanbase should not consider him untradeable.

At 24 years old? Yes they should

[Q-is-here]

This isn't really to make the above point, as I just think it's a crazy stat, but Ant was a game best +26.6 net on/off. Better than anyone on either team.

Ant: +26.6
Gobert: +7.3
DDV: +25.7
Jaden: -52.6
Randle: -5.4
Ried: -16.2
Ayo: +1.5
Anderson: +10.8
Conley: +18.7


Jokic: -4.1
Murray: +18.1
Gordon: +4.1
Johnson: -34.6
Bruan: -31.9
All Denver's bench players were positive.

How is net +\- calculated?

Good question, Kek. But I'll add that the on/off numbers at Cleaning the Glass are similarly bizarre. I don't know what we can conclude from this other than what we always say...on/off and plus/minus stats are not very meaningful with a one-game sample. Jaden's number is as far away from what I observed as any measure I've ever seen!

I think it takes each player's +/- per possession and then multiplies it by 100 while they are ON the court. Then it looks at how the team did per possession while they were OFF the court and multiplies that by 100. The difference between the two is the result above.

Let's just say Ant was in the game for 80 possessions. We know he was a gross -3 while he was in the game, so that would equal -.0375 per possession. Now multiply that by 100 and you get a net rating of -3.75.

To arrive at a Net On/Off Rating of +26.6, it means the team would have had a net rating of -30.35 while Ant was OFF the court. The Wolves were a gross -8 while Ant was off the court. All it takes is about 25 possessions for that to equate to a -30.35 Net Rating. The difference between an ON net rating of -3.75 and Off Net Rating of -30.35 is +26.6.

I know I'm guess-timating the number of possessions, but I don't think it's far off.

I agree it's not very meaningful in the context of one game, but the numbers are less preposterous when you understand how they are calculated. Because Ant was only on the bench for 10 minutes, losing those minutes by 8 points has an outsized affect on the Net On/Off calculations.

[Coolbreeze44]

To be clear, I wasn't making excuses. For one- I don't think he's top 5. If I really sat down and put some work into I'm willing to bet he'd come in around 8th or 9th for me, but that's also pretty irrelevant to what I was saying --- not that you were directly addressing me, I take your comment as a general one.

What I'm saying is almost no player is all of the things everyone wishes Ant to be --- point guard, bucket, elite defender, play fast, get to the rim, great in the clutch, shoot middys, shoot treys, great leader --- all time greats aren't ALL of these things and to be honest there are times where folks complain that he isn't all of these things.

So I'm just talking about realistic expectations, and to your point about "imposing their will in the playoffs"..... Well hasn't he? Unless all you mean by that is, "win a championship" than I think there is an incredibly legitimate argument to be made that he's imposed his will every year in the playoffs.

Anyway, he needs to be better if they're to win, that I won't argue. If he's hurt, it is what it is. If he's still "finding his rhythm" or whatever than that's on him to some extent for not being more prepared.

I personally really hope it isn't the knee cause I don't want to have to look back on this year wondering what could have been. I think this is a pivotal legacy year for Ant, and to be honest... I'm not sure he sees it that way

If he's really in that 8th or 9th best player space, the Wolves and the fanbase should not consider him untradeable.

At 24 years old? Yes they should

Top 10 players get traded all the time. You're putting your personal bias ahead of what's best for the team. I think if he was definitely in the top 5 you might consider him untradeable. At 9 you at least have to listen.

[Phenom]

If he's really in that 8th or 9th best player space, the Wolves and the fanbase should not consider him untradeable.

At 24 years old? Yes they should

Top 10 players get traded all the time. You're putting your personal bias ahead of what's best for the team. I think if he was definitely in the top 5 you might consider him untradeable. At 9 you at least have to listen.

Where did we have Ant ranked in 2020-2021? 21-22, 23-24, 24-25?

Where was Shai and Jokic ranked before they were top 5?

[AussieWolf3]

If he's really in that 8th or 9th best player space, the Wolves and the fanbase should not consider him untradeable.

At 24 years old? Yes they should

Top 10 players get traded all the time. You're putting your personal bias ahead of what's best for the team. I think if he was definitely in the top 5 you might consider him untradeable. At 9 you at least have to listen.

My personal bias is that he's still an ascending player, a bias that is informed by data that I trust. There are concerns I have about him being able to hit the ceiling that he has, which is enormous, but being the 8th best player at 24 on a good contact for what, 3 more years? Mean he's a great asset with still an enormous amount of space to grow.

If he completely shits the bed this postseason that will certainly dampen my positive outlook, but then you're even less likely to trade him cause his value will be lowered.

My reason for not trading him chiefly is about what I believe to be good asset management. The fact that he made me love watching basketball again as a Wolves fan is secondary.

It's all good tho, I respect your opinion. You're a more seasoned ball guy than me

[AussieWolf3]

Honestly, I'm just ready for tomorrow night! the middle of the game was depressing as hell, but let's not forget how good they looked for about 2/3 of the game.
Plenty to built on, and really do hope it was just rust for Edwards, he and Finch both suggested as much post game. Ant even said he felt great, just a little gassed.

I feel good about most of the guys and how they played and I'm extremely worried about Randle....

[AbeVigodaLive]

I feel good about most of the guys and how they played and I'm extremely worried about Randle....

And Reid?

The Wolves two big payouts last summer ($55M for this season) play the same position. And both have been scuffling for weeks.

That's a disheartening turn.

[Q-is-here]

I feel good about most of the guys and how they played and I'm extremely worried about Randle....

And Reid?

The Wolves two big payouts last summer ($55M for this season) play the same position. And both have been scuffling for weeks.

That's a disheartening turn.

And Naz has a history of underperforming in the playoffs, unlike Ant and Jaden.

Speaking of Net Rating and Net On/Off rating, Naz has yet to be positive in either metric in the four seasons he's been in the playoffs (including Game 1 the other night). We consistently lose his minutes when he's on the floor during the playoffs, which is different than his regular season track record. Sore shoulder or not, he's proven to be a net negative in the playoffs.

We are now entering the 3rd straight year where our bench - often cited as a strength - has underperformed in the playoffs.

If your best player isn't a top 3 or 4 MVP-caliber player, than by definition you must have an especially complimentary starting lineup and bench guys that can win minutes against other team's benches. That's been the Boston formula for the last few years, including the year they won the title.