Rate Finch

[Q-is-here]

I just wonder where people's heads will be at if we end up beating the Spurs and then flame out again versus OKC in 5 or 6 games. Not saying that will be Finch's fault, but there's a lot of goodwill out there right now and we are still VERY early in the playoffs.

[BeenLurkin]

I think that depends on context still. Everything does. If Shai flips his way to victory Finch can’t be blamed. If we lose in 4 and put up no fight and look cooked then the Pitchforks will come back out.

[Leado01]

I just wonder where people's heads will be at if we end up beating the Spurs and then flame out again versus OKC in 5 or 6 games. Not saying that will be Finch's fault, but there's a lot of goodwill out there right now and we are still VERY early in the playoffs.

I've been getting ahead of myself thinking the same thing...I'm already stressed about Ed Malloy in OKC vs. Wolves. Daigneault is pretty damn good at culture and levers (having every draft pick for 10 years doesn't hurt either).

[BeenLurkin]

Phil Jackson is one person you can’t use him for two different fucking examples. And we’re all waiting for you to name one of these other dozens like you are not short of time here go ahead pull out another one.

Fine I’ll do YOUR homework for you.
I the history of NBA championships there have been exactly 7 Head coaches to win a title in their first year as Head Coach of that team. Ready? Here we go;

Paul Westhead LAL - he was an assistant the year prior to his title. go watch the HbO series winning time, it’s amazing!

Bill Sharman 1971 LAL (played for Boston, coached LA. Must have been truly Hated by Celtics Nation)

George Snesky 55/56 Philadelphia Warriors. Looks like he took a year off after playing for that team for 8 years then won a title first try coaching. So technically been with the program for a WHILE

Jack Ramsay 76/77 Portland

Buddy Jeanette 1948 BAA league Baltimore Bullets! Played for them for three seasons first so again, not technically new to program.

Here’s a fun one and an actual learned something useful moment, coach
John Kunlda of the Msp Lakers won it his first try plus 5 out of the next 6 years!

Then we have Steve Kerr and Lakers Phil Jackson.

Now that list expands to a few more coaches given a 2nd or third year with their new team but besides the outliers of Kerr and Jackson none of those additional examples happened after 1980 and I think listing these relics of yester year might bring my point into crystal clarity.
There are not INFUCKINGFACT dozens of examples of coaches coming into a program and winning it all immediatly.

There are 7.

Of which two were players turned into coaches of their same team so maybe Mike Conely is the answer? I’d love that honestly.
The remaining 5 include titles from 56’ 71’ and 77’ so forgive me if I’m not a bit skeptical of the lack of recency there.

Now that leaves again Phil and Kerr.

So to hopefully end this inane and redundantly stupid argument that a new coach is worth the chance let us conclude with something that happened at best 7 times in the history of a 79 year old league might not be something to gamble on? Is that enough for you? Are you able to take in new information and adjust your take? Or are you a MAGA cultist?

If it’s not Finch it should be an assistant from within (Micah) or a player the guys all respect and is ready to coach (Mike or Joe). If it comes from outside it is a 6% chance of success and a 3.7% chance of sustained success (Kerr, Kunlda, Jackson going on to win multiple titles. Most other coaches won 1 and done).

[BeenLurkin]

Is that CURIOUS enough for you?

[BeenLurkin]

Looking at it differently numbers wise,
Since Gregg popovich became spurs coach there have been over 300 coaching changes in the nba. 2 of which yielded an immediate title. So…odds are closer to .006% chance that’s the correct way to guarantee aggressive success at the level you demand.

[BeenLurkin]

Shoot, so my rant that never got published was actually about the most recent history of nba titles so I forgot to mention Nick Nurse and Larry Brown as a first try coach winners. Shame. So 9 total out of 79 years did a new to the program first try coach produce a title. But that leads into the direction I want to steer this anyways which is towards a look at the why vs the randomness of “insert new coach / results” because imo the players win and the coach holds them together and brings out their best selves. So i think a deep dive quickly into the top 100 nba players of all time and how many each of the coaches that were first try winners had on their respective teams.

The list you search from will have some differences sure but overall the best team ever Inherited is the Phil Jackson Lakers with 2 top 10 All time players. And Phil was leaving a team with 3 top 50 players and one of those being maybe top at worst.

Steve Kerr inherited a top 6ish player plus two top 100 players in Draymond and klay.

Could add the Raptors and Nick Nurse here as well who inherited kawahi

[Monster]

Shoot, so my rant that never got published was actually about the most recent history of nba titles so I forgot to mention Nick Nurse and Larry Brown as a first try coach winners. Shame. So 9 total out of 79 years did a new to the program first try coach produce a title. But that leads into the direction I want to steer this anyways which is towards a look at the why vs the randomness of “insert new coach / results” because imo the players win and the coach holds them together and brings out their best selves. So i think a deep dive quickly into the top 100 nba players of all time and how many each of the coaches that were first try winners had on their respective teams.

The list you search from will have some differences sure but overall the best team ever Inherited is the Phil Jackson Lakers with 2 top 10 All time players. And Phil was leaving a team with 3 top 50 players and one of those being maybe top at worst.

Steve Kerr inherited a top 6ish player plus two top 100 players in Draymond and klay.

Could add the Raptors and Nick Nurse here as well who inherited kawahi

So you are saying 60% of the time it works every time?

I'm looking forward to watching the BeenLurkin ESPN 30/30 on this subject.

[BeenLurkin]

Ugh it happened again. Long post deleted cause I got logged out and didn’t save the draft. I’ll have to learn my lesson there….someday.

Anyways. My point is that a coach can take the right mix of talent and produce an immediate result. If the team has a top 10 guy, a top 50 guy and a top 100 guy in the league that is more predictive of post season success then any metric. I can’t for the life of me find that article but that’s not my opinion. Studies showed it.

In the extreme cases of phil and the Lakers he inherited two top 10 guys OF ALL TO TIME. So did Paul Westhead (again, watch Winning Time on HBO). Kerr inherited. Top 10 all timer plus two top 100 all timers in Klay and Dray. These guys went through their primes together and would have won regardless at some point as long as someone held them together and accountable…that’s what makes Phil and Steve by osmosis of the Phil so special. He got the top dogs to hunt as a pack again and again. Blending the egos and emotions of these best of all time guys is the key.

Do the wolves have their top guys?
Ant obviously. Rudy is top 66 all time, Julius and Jaden are for sure top 50 talents this year. It could be argued we have the talent and mentality right now. But we don’t have Steve Kerr or Phil walking through the door. So what’s the point of letting a random with no more chance of success ride coat tails when Finch seems to be a master of the vibe? He has these guys playing together and for eachother when it matters.

[BeenLurkin]

I saw an article that for the life of me I can’t find now but it is basically what I am alluding to. Statistical study done showing to be a title contender you need a top 10 guy, a top 50 guy and a top 100 guy. I am trying to point out that each of these first time whiz coach’s they had that already in place or in the case of Nick Nurse they came along with the coach. Kawahi one and done was that year.
If the larger predictor is that metric (and the outliers of Phil and Kerr they both had that in ALL TIME players, not just that season. Imagine inheriting the guys they did and then claiming it was the coach that did it… Kobe/shaq. Jordan Pippen, and the unsung Paul Westhead Magic/Kareem).
So…Ant top 10, Julius top 50, Jaden and Rudy both top 100 guys this year. It’s not a guarantee but a predictor. If that’s not enough then a new coach won’t make as much of a change as an improvement of Jaden/julius/rudy => another top 10 guy.
I never want to give up on Jaden because it’s too early to tell how high he can climb in these rankings. I love so much of what Julius and Rudy bring but it’s their weaknesses that bleed us the most imo. The most possessionsteying to get Rudy involved see to come most from Julius trying to feed him. But Julius depressive stretches seem to make him disappear when he could single handily win us games(because there are times that he does this and you see his potential). I don’t know what I would do as GM. We have all the pieces imo, but somedays they don’t fit. It’s not settling for mediocrity to want to keep trying to put the puzzle together though. The flashes of pure brilliance are too high to discount with these guys.
My vision is to see how much this run can propel Jaden and the team to become ther full selves next year (which includes playoffs, not justregular season). If they can’t get out of their own way then it’s time to move on from Julius and or Rudy and see what comes of it. But I would not fire Finch unless Ant comes out and Jaylen Browns him immediately after getting eliminated. If the players turn on him then it’s over. But not until then.