Wolves offseason outlook.

[guest81]

Every team has a whipping boy, and ours is Julius Randle. I was as frustrated as anyone with his poor play in the playoffs and his often indifferent defense during the season, but GMs are going to look at his production last year relative to his contract. He put up 21 PPG (23rd in the league), 6.7 RPG (37th) and 5 APG (35th in the league and 8th among forwards and centers) for the season, and his $31 million was 55th in the Association last season...and he's locked in for the next two years with a small increase. His VORP was equal to Bane, Booker and Butler, and his ws/48 was equal to Anonoby, Castle and Jaylen Brown. You guys know that I am a fan of outscoring your opponent when you are on the court because my understanding of the NBA rules is that the team that outscores the other team is awarded a win...and Ju was a +2.5 on the season. Yes his defense can be an issue...the Wolves gave up 5.1 more points per 100 when he was on the court, almost as bad as Ant's team-worse 5.6. But his +7.6 on offense was the best on the team, better than second place Ant at +5.8. I agree that we are likely to move Ju in the offseason and I will not be heartbroken if we do (I also won't be suicidal if we don't, but I will be doing wellness checks on some posters here), but I don't agree that he will be difficult to move...his contract is a bargain relative to his production in both raw and advanced stats. I suspect we will be happy with what we get back for him.

I'd put his value higher than D'lo when he was on the Wolves and look how that turned out

I think the answer is somewhere in between what FNG thinks and the more pessimistic "we have to attach an asset" take.

DeMar DeRozan yielded Chicago a couple of 2nd rounders and the infamous cash considerations. That isn't a great return but they didn't have to attach anything to DeMar either. They were basically able to get off his deal for free.

Zach LaVine yielded Chicago Zach Collins, Tre Jones, and Kevin Huerter. Not great, but not bad. Tre is a damn solid PG.

DeAndre Ayton was traded by Phoenix to Portland for Nurkic, Grayson Allen, Nassir Little, and Keon Johnson. Nothing great there, but again, Phoenix didn't have to attach assets to get off Ayton's deal.

I think Randle has higher value than any of those players at the time. Plus Wolves front office way better than the Bulls or Suns

[Q-is-here]

I'd put his value higher than D'lo when he was on the Wolves and look how that turned out

I think the answer is somewhere in between what FNG thinks and the more pessimistic "we have to attach an asset" take.

DeMar DeRozan yielded Chicago a couple of 2nd rounders and the infamous cash considerations. That isn't a great return but they didn't have to attach anything to DeMar either. They were basically able to get off his deal for free.

Zach LaVine yielded Chicago Zach Collins, Tre Jones, and Kevin Huerter. Not great, but not bad. Tre is a damn solid PG.

DeAndre Ayton was traded by Phoenix to Portland for Nurkic, Grayson Allen, Nassir Little, and Keon Johnson. Nothing great there, but again, Phoenix didn't have to attach assets to get off Ayton's deal.

I think Randle has higher value than any of those players at the time. Plus Wolves front office way better than the Bulls or Suns

Agree. That's why I picked these guys as examples. None of them required the sending team to attach a 1st rounder to them, so why would that be the case with Randle?

Of course we'd love to get something back of value (like a Tre Jones-caliber PG or 1st round pick), but if the worst-case scenario is we can move Randle for some assortment of dead salary, journeymen, and 2nd rounders while preserving what little draft capital we have then you just have to do it.

[mjs34]

I do this about once a year about the 2021-22 Minnesota Timberwolves because people use their wins in the regular season as a reason why the Rudy trade was bad. People love to romanticize that roster, so lets look at it.

Starters:
Dlo- Had his last productive season of his career (Shocker under finch), almost out of the league currently.
Ant- Still a top 10 player in the leauge
Jaden- Still on roster doing well
Jared Vanderbilt- Out of the late series playoff rotation for the Lakers (Shocker put up career highs on his last year under Chris Finch)
Kat- Still a top 25 player in the league but for the knicks

Bench:
Naz- Still on roster and is good
Beasley- After having 3 terrible stints with teams he refound his Chris Finch form with the pistons before off court issues have him out of the league
Pat Bev- Last productive year in the league under Chris Finch. Out of the leauge
Bolmaro- Not an NBA player
Nate Knight- Not an Nba Player
Jake Layman- Out of the NBA
Jordan Mclaughlin- Had his best years under finch, now the last guy on the spurs roster
Greg Monroe- Out of the league
Jaylen Nowell- Best year under finch, out of the league
Taurean Prince- Average off the bench on a bad Bucks team
Josh Okogie- Role player for the Rockets
Chris Silva- Out of the leauge
Mckinley Wright- Out of the league


So of that amazing 21-22 roster, 18 players under contract during that season at some point
3 Players are still on the wolves and all considered core pieces to the Wolves
9 Players are currently out for the league
6 Players currently on other teams, but only 2 in a playoff rotation and Kat is the only above average player at all.

So shocker that team that made the playoffs in that romanticize year, Chris Finch got the max out of the team of players who 13 of the 15 are either out of the league or not in a playoff rotation in games that matter. So mad we gave up on that future.. woooo.


Another common thing is that we are in cap hell because of the Rudy trade. This is what the cap would look like if we stayed still and didnt do the Rudy trade.

Dlo: 6 Million
Ant: 49 Million
Jaden: 26 Million
Vando: 12 Million
Kat-: 57 Million
Naz: 23 million
Okogie-: 3 Million
Kessler: Currently 14 million cap hold, is a RFA and is in one of the more interesting contract situations in the league for a guy who has been ok but hurt a lot.
George: 6.5 Million
Clayton Jr: 4 million

So a total of 205.5 million approximately (Not including the pay jump Kessler will get this off season). Wolves current roster is 192 million going into this next season, or 206 if you include Ayo cap hold. So shocker the wolves would be in a similar cap situation if they didn't do the Rudy trade and let it run its course with a team where 13 of the 18 players are out of the league or out of playoff rotations.

Im SOOOOO PISSED that we didn't run it back because who wouldn't like a worse team in a similar salary cap situation. We just 2 more 1sts. What was Tim Connelly thinking!!!!

Welp you are all welcome for the annual breakdown of what contracts actually look like instead of hindsight grass is always greener because we didn't win a championship with Rudy. The argument is always the wolves lost trade flexibility with the Rudy trade and I can hear that argument, you just tell me the player that made the wolves more of a contender then Rudy the last couple of years that would of been realistic. Because like I outlined Chris Finch the guy who can't coach, put the majority of the players on 21-22 year having the best years of their careers and their value plummeted when they left him.

I am not sure if you are directing this toward me, but I have never "romanticized" any roster. I have simply stated a fact that the wolves won 46 games the season before TC took over.

D'Lo finished his partial season and one more full season on the lakers at similar production levels as those on the wolves. So your statement is incorrect.

Vandy's lack of production has to do with his injury history, not coaching.

Beasley TS% was already dropping under FInch, and continued over his next season likely due to being moved twice over the next season. He actually rebounded the following season in Milwaukee and continued that in Detroit.

Taurean Prince has started approximately 70% of his games over the last three seasons, and Milwaukee was on the wolves level until last season when they suffered catastrophic injuries.

Patrick Beverly simply aged out of the league, and had nothing to do with coaching.

I would agree with you that Finch did a good job of cobbling together a winning lineup that season, but I don't necessarily agree that he did much to increase the players production individually. I also think this is evidence of how poorly TC and/or Finch have performed during the TC tenure. If we were able to win 46 games with what I assume you are trying to characterize as a lousy roster, why hasn't TC been able to improve this team above the 49 wins that they posted the last two seasons.

In reference to the salary cap and rosters, I have a few issues. First the 205.5 mil figure should be 200.5 mil if my math is correct. My second issue has to do with improving our roster going forward. Tim laid out a pretty clear path to where we will land based on trading Randle/Donte with regard to the cap and aprons.

Here is a completely different angle on the Wolves offseason. Let's assume TC pulls off the 3 year 52 mil Ayo signing, which would start at 16 mil next season. Assume the roster will eventually be filled out to 14 with vet minimums (less for draft picks or players with less than 2 years experience). TC can pursue a Randle/Donte trade to bring back a player and here is how the math roughly works out:

- If the player brought back makes 29 mil or less, the Wolves actually duck under the luxury tax.

- If the player brought back makes 35 mil or less, the Wolves will duck/stay under the first apron.

- 48 mil or less would keep the Wolves under the 2nd apron, but I believe the real limit would be the combined salaries for Randle and Donte, which is just under 46 mil.

What I take from this is we are strapped if we re-sign Ayo to the above contract without improving anything else. Can TC pull off a deal moving Randle/Donte or someone else? possibly, but I haven't witnessed any great trades from him yet other than the Conley/NAW move and we ended up letting NAW walk away. My long winded point on this is that we really aren't improving over a year ago other than individual improvement by Ant and Jaden.

All that being said I also believe that your premise that without the Rudy trade we have some how teleported to the future with the same roster you laid out from 2021-2022. That seems like a Straw Man argument. I don't believe we would of held on to D'Lo, Vandy, Okogie at the very least, but we would have had other options over the four years without having Rudy's salary attached.

[guest81]

feels weird to just compare wins from one season to another with no other context. The west just in general is better then it was then. The suns that year were the number 1 seed but I don't think they even beat this years Wolves in a 7 game series. They probably lose to all the top 6 teams minus Houston (assuming Lakers are healthy). Also hard to argue that there was a different path that led to better results then what occurred. Kinda feels like everybody thinks this Wolves team has no future. Even if they ran this team back they're probably still a top 5 team in the league.

[WildWolf2813]

What makes Randle tough to move is that he's not ideal for any team construct. If you wanna win a ring, not your guy. If you wanna tank, you won't get much back and those teams might want you to attach something. If you want someone to raise your floor, two teams got to work on that by the deadline. He's best suited to be on a team spinning their wheels and teams don't admit that so early. They wanna sell hope. Randle doesn't sell hope.

But don't you think the anti-tanking rules provide some teams a reason to get Randle? The bottom three teams will now be penalized - or relegated is the term being used - by getting one less lottery ball than the 4 thru 10 teams. Well, guess who can lift a team from being a bottom dweller to just plain mediocre? Julius Randle!

So if a team's goal is to maximize lottery balls while developing their talent, they can only go so far with it and actually have to be competitive enough to not end up in the bottom three. And since literally no one has any incentive to be in the bottom 3, teams could be fighting like cats and dogs to stay out of the relegation zone. Randle could prove quite useful to one or more of those teams.

BTW, I think this helps Rudy's market too if the Wolves decide to trade him, but I also think he could be attractive to teams that want to break into the playoffs as well.

Came here to write something similar. I heard this angle on a recent podcast (Dane Moore?) and there's probably some level of merit to it.

Something like "Randle can be the #1 option on a 35 - 47 team..." so fans have a reason to go to games without worrying about the win impacting lottery odds too much.

The Promise of Hope re-re-re-builds in the NBA are dying. I need a new gimmick.

That was a role he was capable of 5 years ago when he went to the Knicks. I don't think he's that now.

[WildWolf2813]

Randle's issue isn't his contract. At worst he's slightly overpaid, but probably neutral deal in terms of dollars and years.


What makes Randle tough to move is that he's not ideal for any team construct. If you wanna win a ring, not your guy. If you wanna tank, you won't get much back and those teams might want you to attach something. If you want someone to raise your floor, two teams got to work on that by the deadline. He's best suited to be on a team spinning their wheels and teams don't admit that so early. They wanna sell hope. Randle doesn't sell hope.

I think Randle's stock is getting way out of hand here. Yes he struggled against the Spurs and Thunder, but those are also the two best defenses and are set up to destroy players like Randle. On the other hand, Randle destroyed Lebron and Green last year in the playoffs. I think if you put Randle on any east team and he would be a pretty effective player, including both team in the eastern finals. Yea he's not going to be good against the Spurs or Thunder, but how many teams have that goal next year?

Every team has a whipping boy, and ours is Julius Randle. I was as frustrated as anyone with his poor play in the playoffs and his often indifferent defense during the season, but GMs are going to look at his production last year relative to his contract. He put up 21 PPG (23rd in the league), 6.7 RPG (37th) and 5 APG (35th in the league and 8th among forwards and centers) for the season, and his $31 million was 55th in the Association last season...and he's locked in for the next two years with a small increase. His VORP was equal to Bane, Booker and Butler, and his ws/48 was equal to Anonoby, Castle and Jaylen Brown. You guys know that I am a fan of outscoring your opponent when you are on the court because my understanding of the NBA rules is that the team that outscores the other team is awarded a win...and Ju was a +2.5 on the season. Yes his defense can be an issue...the Wolves gave up 5.1 more points per 100 when he was on the court, almost as bad as Ant's team-worse 5.6. But his +7.6 on offense was the best on the team, better than second place Ant at +5.8. I agree that we are likely to move Ju in the offseason and I will not be heartbroken if we do (I also won't be suicidal if we don't, but I will be doing wellness checks on some posters here), but I don't agree that he will be difficult to move...his contract is a bargain relative to his production in both raw and advanced stats. I suspect we will be happy with what we get back for him.

The numbers look cute until you see him in action. That's what's missing. If Randle's actual production actually showed itself, we'd still be playing. His ws/48 was equal to Anunoby, Castle, and Brown and all three of those guys make bigger impacts in games that mean more. Randle is the equivalent of a baseball player who hits 30 homers, drives in 85, hits .250, but can't field and then when the playoffs come, goes 3-16 with non competitive at bats and sits alone in the dugout. It's not worth it anymore.

[FNG]

I think Randle's stock is getting way out of hand here. Yes he struggled against the Spurs and Thunder, but those are also the two best defenses and are set up to destroy players like Randle. On the other hand, Randle destroyed Lebron and Green last year in the playoffs. I think if you put Randle on any east team and he would be a pretty effective player, including both team in the eastern finals. Yea he's not going to be good against the Spurs or Thunder, but how many teams have that goal next year?

Every team has a whipping boy, and ours is Julius Randle. I was as frustrated as anyone with his poor play in the playoffs and his often indifferent defense during the season, but GMs are going to look at his production last year relative to his contract. He put up 21 PPG (23rd in the league), 6.7 RPG (37th) and 5 APG (35th in the league and 8th among forwards and centers) for the season, and his $31 million was 55th in the Association last season...and he's locked in for the next two years with a small increase. His VORP was equal to Bane, Booker and Butler, and his ws/48 was equal to Anonoby, Castle and Jaylen Brown. You guys know that I am a fan of outscoring your opponent when you are on the court because my understanding of the NBA rules is that the team that outscores the other team is awarded a win...and Ju was a +2.5 on the season. Yes his defense can be an issue...the Wolves gave up 5.1 more points per 100 when he was on the court, almost as bad as Ant's team-worse 5.6. But his +7.6 on offense was the best on the team, better than second place Ant at +5.8. I agree that we are likely to move Ju in the offseason and I will not be heartbroken if we do (I also won't be suicidal if we don't, but I will be doing wellness checks on some posters here), but I don't agree that he will be difficult to move...his contract is a bargain relative to his production in both raw and advanced stats. I suspect we will be happy with what we get back for him.

The numbers look cute until you see him in action. That's what's missing. If Randle's actual production actually showed itself, we'd still be playing. His ws/48 was equal to Anunoby, Castle, and Brown and all three of those guys make bigger impacts in games that mean more. Randle is the equivalent of a baseball player who hits 30 homers, drives in 85, hits .250, but can't field and then when the playoffs come, goes 3-16 with non competitive at bats and sits alone in the dugout. It's not worth it anymore.

I don't disagree, WW...the eye test with Ju can be brutal, especially when you compare him with guys who always work hard, like Donte, and you have been able to watch him perhaps more than anyone on this board. I'm just pointing out that his value demonstrated by stats seems to indicate his contract is quite attractive, and that we may be underestimating what he may bring back in trade. But if we don't move him, my first wellness check may have to be on you .

[Coolbreeze44]

I'm not sure where to put this and didn't want to make a new thread. But am I the only person who had a problem with Ant being in the Spurs huddle with 8 minutes left in our season? Anybody else? It's just weird and speaks to someone who doesn't have it all connected. Call me old school, but ignoring that and brushing it off as no big deal doesn't mesh with the coach in me. Tell me I'm overreacting if that's how you feel.

[TheFuture]

I'm not sure where to put this and didn't want to make a new thread. But am I the only person who had a problem with Ant being in the Spurs huddle with 8 minutes left in our season? Anybody else? It's just weird and speaks to someone who doesn't have it all connected. Call me old school, but ignoring that and brushing it off as no big deal doesn't mesh with the coach in me. Tell me I'm overreacting if that's how you feel.

I couldn't name you a top end player in history that I saw do it or could envision doing it. You're getting your ass kicked. Embarrassed on national TV. You should be livid, and thinking about what needs to change so you're not in that position ever again.

You would not see Jordan, Ķobe, KG, LeBron, Stockton, I. Thomas, Bird, Shaq, Barkley, Duncan, etc. Etc. Etc. Doing that. These players you're chumming up with are who you should want to kill on the court for as long as you're here because they will be standing in your way the whole time.

[WildWolf2813]

I'm not sure where to put this and didn't want to make a new thread. But am I the only person who had a problem with Ant being in the Spurs huddle with 8 minutes left in our season? Anybody else? It's just weird and speaks to someone who doesn't have it all connected. Call me old school, but ignoring that and brushing it off as no big deal doesn't mesh with the coach in me. Tell me I'm overreacting if that's how you feel.

I wouldn't have done it myself, but at this point, I don't care.