What makes this trade a success

[Sundog]

My queasiness will settle and it ain't my money! This team will be fun and fascinating to watch, and the risks and expectations are high. This kind of blockbuster worked out well for the Celtics trading for Garnett, not so well for the Lakers trading for Davis. Injuries vs the lack thereof seem to be the deciding factor there, and Gobert hasn't been the injury risk that Davis has been. After a couple of knee injuries, he began to take precautions in 2017, which have reduced his injury risk. See this article from last December:

https://www.sltrib.com/sports/jazz/2021/12/13/utah-jazz-center-rudy/

"This is a remarkable stat, but it's true: Over the past four seasons, only one player has started more NBA games than Rudy Gobert: Denver MVP Nikola Jokic."

[Lipoli390]

My queasiness will settle and it ain't my money! This team will be fun and fascinating to watch, and the risks and expectations are high. This kind of blockbuster worked out well for the Celtics trading for Garnett, not so well for the Lakers trading for Davis. Injuries vs the lack thereof seem to be the deciding factor there, and Gobert hasn't been the injury risk that Davis has been. After a couple of knee injuries, he began to take precautions in 2017, which have reduced his injury risk. See this article from last December:

https://www.sltrib.com/sports/jazz/2021/12/13/utah-jazz-center-rudy/

"This is a remarkable stat, but it's true: Over the past four seasons, only one player has started more NBA games than Rudy Gobert: Denver MVP Nikola Jokic."

Fascinating article. Thanks for posting. Speaking of the Celtics trade for KG, here it is:

On July 31, 2007, Boston took a massive swing to complete their star player's demands - the Celtics traded Ryan Gomes, Gerald Green, Al Jefferson, Theo Ratliff, Sebastian Telfair and two 2009 first-round picks to the Minnesota Timberwolves to land Kevin Garnett.

Note that the Celtics gave up FAR LESS for the then 31-year old 2-way, future hall-of-farmer Kevin Garnett than the Wolves just gave up for the 30-year old Gobert. I think KG is clearly the better of the two players, yet the Celtics gave up far less to get him than Connelly just gave up to get Rudy G. Danny Ainge was on the winning end of both deals with the Wolves. :). It will be interesting to see how well the Wolves do with Gobert over the next few years. Expectations are now sky high, as they should be. But in my view, there's no getting around that this was an unreasonably lopsided deal in favor of the Jazz. And lopsided deals almost always catch up with the losing side - usually more quickly than you might expect.

[Sundog]

Well, I dunno, you say "far less" and I say pretty comparable for its time, 2007, when I think the league was less dynamic in terms of players and trades.

And I think Gobert is a likely hall of famer: Gobert has won the NBA Defensive Player of the Year award three times, tied for second-most in NBA history. He is a four-time All-NBA Team member, six-time All-Defensive First Team member, and three-time NBA All-Star. Gobert was also the NBA blocks leader in the 2016-17 season and the NBA rebounding leader in the 2021-22 season. Gobert was named to the All-NBA Second Team in 2017, and the All-NBA Third Team in 2019, 2020 and 2021.

[Q-is-here]

I

I agree with Cam and kek's measure of success, and think there's a good probability of meeting that yardstick.

I'm queasy about the trade because I've never been a "fuck it, all-in" kind of risk taker... but you know who is? Marc Lore -- and it's their money, this is America, they can do what they want.

I'm also queasy because this accelerates our expectations significantly. This team, as assembled prior to the trade, was going to have to scrap to make the playoffs again, given how the other teams in the west have improved. Now the expectation is the western conference finals. Before the trade, the expectation for Ant was to be an all-star, now it might be finals MVP.

The front office must think these players are ready for the weight of those accelerated expectations -- this Wolves fan is still processing it, kind of like the Starship Enterprise accelerating to warp speed, with the front of the ship already at warp and the back lagging, being pulled to catch up.

I'll add that these owner are consistently confounding our expectations, first with the the GM hiring, then with the draft, now with free agency. That, I think, contributes to the quease. We'll just have to catch up!

Great analogy Sundog, and I'm not even a Trekkie!

I agree that us Minnesota fans just aren't used to this kind of thing. In places like L.A., they pull this stuff all the time! There is also some pleasure taken by loyal fans in watching a team go through a building process brick by brick over a period of time vs. a warp speed acceleration of said plan. But this isn't Brooklyn. There are no big free agent signings and just one piece was traded for in Gobert. KAT, Ant, and Jaden are home grown talent.

To answer the initial question, I'm also on the Cam-Kek-Sundog spectrum of what success looks like. To actually win a title requires an incredible assemblage of talent AND luck. It's freakin' hard and you generally need a top 5 or 6 player to do it. We don't have that top 5 player.....at least not yet.

[TheFuture]

Success will be playing at the level of the top of the West as long as Ant plays in the team = stability (that they will not disassemble and reassemble the team every time).
Success will be that the team will become an attractive destination for free Agents.
As a result we will finally be able to get out of the league basements (where we have been for so many years) and the championships will also come.

On the other hand, after the trade we created here situation that is so delicate and fragile (both professionally and financially) that success will be not to fail, otherwise the team will fall free that will cause to the departure of Kat and Ant.

Economically - there is no room for mistakes or in other words: the bet is too big

Good luck to everyone

You get it.

[TheFuture]

Well, I dunno, you say "far less" and I say pretty comparable for its time, 2007, when I think the league was less dynamic in terms of players and trades.

And I think Gobert is a likely hall of famer: Gobert has won the NBA Defensive Player of the Year award three times, tied for second-most in NBA history. He is a four-time All-NBA Team member, six-time All-Defensive First Team member, and three-time NBA All-Star. Gobert was also the NBA blocks leader in the 2016-17 season and the NBA rebounding leader in the 2021-22 season. Gobert was named to the All-NBA Second Team in 2017, and the All-NBA Third Team in 2019, 2020 and 2021.

And he still gets played off the court.

[60WinTim]

Well, I dunno, you say "far less" and I say pretty comparable for its time, 2007, when I think the league was less dynamic in terms of players and trades.

And I think Gobert is a likely hall of famer: Gobert has won the NBA Defensive Player of the Year award three times, tied for second-most in NBA history. He is a four-time All-NBA Team member, six-time All-Defensive First Team member, and three-time NBA All-Star. Gobert was also the NBA blocks leader in the 2016-17 season and the NBA rebounding leader in the 2021-22 season. Gobert was named to the All-NBA Second Team in 2017, and the All-NBA Third Team in 2019, 2020 and 2021.

And he still gets played off the court.

I really don't understand this notion that he gets played off the court. You can elaborate, or provide that statistical support for such a comment?

[Coolbreeze44]

Welcome to the big leagues boys

[Monster]

It's a success if we knock the Lakers out of the playoffs at least twice.

[thedoper]

A success for me will be the evidence that we match up with the leagues elite every night. There were still certain teams I didnt feel confident we could beat or even really have a chance. It that feeling is gone and its just competitive basketball every night Im happy.