What makes this trade a success

[kekgeek]

I'm just curious what people opinion on this is and obviously this might change when we live through the moments. But in the next 4 years what is considered a success

My thoughts
1 title or more = success
1 title appearance or more = success
Multiple WCF appearances = success
1 WCF and multiple 2nd rounds = success
1 WCF and no 2nd rounds = disappointing
0 WCF and 4 2nd rounds = disappointing
Anything else = failure

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

For me, I think making the conference finals multiple times makes the trade worthwhile. At least one appearance in the championship round would make it a success. And of course if the Timberwolves win a championship during the next four years then it's a slam dunk and we build Tim Connelly a statue. Those are difficult, or lofty, goals to achieve, but so was the price to acquire Rudy Gobert.

[Lipoli390]

You make a deal like this and you had better make it to the NBA finals a couple times in Gobert's 4 years here. If we win a championship, I think Rosas probably deserves a statute more than Connelly. Rosas handed Connelly the team's best player, Edwards. He also gave Connelly three of the four players he traded to get Gobert. He gave Connelly his head coach, Finch. And he left Connelly those unprotected draft picks he just sent to a conference rival. What did Connelly do? He overpaid for Gorbert. If it leads to a title, then I'll praise him for this one move and anything else he does that clearly contributes to the title. But he doesn't deserve a statute given what he already had to work with.

[worldK]

1 Title or more for me. I'm done waiting for our first championship. If we are trading 4 first round picks and pay a 30yr old 40m+ a year to add him to a team with Kat and Ant in their primes, it should be get the chip and nothing else.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

You make a deal like this and you had better make it to the NBA finals a couple times in Gobert's 4 years here. If we win a championship, I think Rosas probably deserves a statute more than Connelly. Rosas handed Connelly the team's best player, Edwards. He also gave Connelly three of the four players he traded to get Gobert. He gave Connelly his head coach, Finch. And he left Connelly those unprotected draft picks he just sent to a conference rival. What did Connelly do? He overpaid for Gorbert. If it leads to a title, then I'll praise him for this one move and anything else he does that clearly contributes to the title. But he doesn't deserve a statute given what he already had to work with.

I can't fully agree with that, Lip. I think multiple top-four finishes -- conference finals appearances -- shows that the move was worth making. And going from the play-in tournament to an NBA Finals appearance would pretty clearly make the trade a success. If they make it a second time, then that's even better. I think damn near everything has to go right just to get there and there will likely be some more roster tweaking until then, and that will be Tim Connelly's doing. The first part of that isn't even Timberwolves-specific. It's hard to make the Finals let alone win the damn thing.

You're right that Gersson Rosas deserves some level of credit for Minnesota's future success, but this roster has quickly become Connelly's already and he's only been on the job for six weeks. Trading for a player as significant as Rudy Gobert changes everything. And while we should mention that he overpaid for Gobert, the reality is that he hit his mark and acquired one of the elite players in the game. If increased success follows that move specifically, then Connelly absolutely deserves the bulk of the credit. That trade will have been a massive catalyst to this organization.

[SameOldNudityDrew]

Of course I WANT to win a championship and be a perennial title contender. But I think I'd set the bar a little closer to where kek and Cam have set it than where Lip and worldK are putting it here.

Remember, this team has literally never once even made the finals in its entire history. If we even get there one time, this team will have accomplished more than the KG Wolves ever did, more than the entire franchise ever has.

As much as I blanched at the price and as weird as I think this team may look, I think giving up 4 first rounders and the players we gave up for this shot is a defensible decision.

[Eitan]

Success will be playing at the level of the top of the West as long as Ant plays in the team = stability (that they will not disassemble and reassemble the team every time).
Success will be that the team will become an attractive destination for free Agents.
As a result we will finally be able to get out of the league basements (where we have been for so many years) and the championships will also come.

On the other hand, after the trade we created here situation that is so delicate and fragile (both professionally and financially) that success will be not to fail, otherwise the team will fall free that will cause to the departure of Kat and Ant.

Economically - there is no room for mistakes or in other words: the bet is too big

Good luck to everyone

[Sundog]

I agree with Cam and kek's measure of success, and think there's a good probability of meeting that yardstick.

I'm queasy about the trade because I've never been a "fuck it, all-in" kind of risk taker... but you know who is? Marc Lore -- and it's their money, this is America, they can do what they want.

I'm also queasy because this accelerates our expectations significantly. This team, as assembled prior to the trade, was going to have to scrap to make the playoffs again, given how the other teams in the west have improved. Now the expectation is the western conference finals. Before the trade, the expectation for Ant was to be an all-star, now it might be finals MVP.

The front office must think these players are ready for the weight of those accelerated expectations -- this Wolves fan is still processing it, kind of like the Starship Enterprise accelerating to warp speed, with the front of the ship already at warp and the back lagging, being pulled to catch up.

I'll add that these owner are consistently confounding our expectations, first with the the GM hiring, then with the draft, now with free agency. That, I think, contributes to the quease. We'll just have to catch up!

[FNG]

I have set my expectation of at least one championship in the Gobert thread, and I'm sticking with that. But this is not a long-term play, this is a win now play. So what are expectations for next year? First of all, has anyone seen if Vegas has posted win totals yet? I had them "improving" to 44-45 wins prior to this deal (I know some see that as regressing, but last year's 46 wins was situational in my view), but this deal had added at least 10 wins. 55 wins should give the Wolves home court advantage all the way to a conference finals against the Suns, and that would be my expectation for next year...even without a DLo deal. Then I expect the following year to be even better. DLo's will walk, and his $30 million will be spent in a much more constructive way. And vital veteran free agents will be flocking to come to this championship contender at a discount.

So my criteria for success? If healthy, 55 wins next year, and championship contender the 4 years after that.

[Lipoli390]

I agree with Cam and kek's measure of success, and think there's a good probability of meeting that yardstick.

I'm queasy about the trade because I've never been a "fuck it, all-in" kind of risk taker... but you know who is? Marc Lore -- and it's their money, this is America, they can do what they want.

I'm also queasy because this accelerates our expectations significantly. This team, as assembled prior to the trade, was going to have to scrap to make the playoffs again, given how the other teams in the west have improved. Now the expectation is the western conference finals. Before the trade, the expectation for Ant was to be an all-star, now it might be finals MVP.

The front office must think these players are ready for the weight of those accelerated expectations -- this Wolves fan is still processing it, kind of like the Starship Enterprise accelerating to warp speed, with the front of the ship already at warp and the back lagging, being pulled to catch up.

I'll add that these owner are consistently confounding our expectations, first with the the GM hiring, then with the draft, now with free agency. That, I think, contributes to the quease. We'll just have to catch up!

Good thoughts, Sundog. I woke up this morning hoping I'd feel better about the trade, but I actually feel worse about it. That's telling because I almost always start turning positive fairly quickly after the Wolves do what I perceive to be a big negative. :)

I had them same thought about Ant (and McDaniels) that you had. Even with the acquisition of Gobert, this team only goes as far as Edwards takes them. The same thinking applies to McDaniels although to a far lesser extent. I believe the Gobert deal places an unreasonable expectation on both of those players at this point in their careers. In that sense, it reminds me of the Butler deal when the 21/22 year old Wiggins and KAT weren't ready for where Butler could take us. Again, it's the peril of skipping steps.

The successful mid-market organizations simply don't do what Connelly did yesterday. They don't skip steps, at least not this profoundly, and they don't throw hale Mary passes when things are going well. Whether it's the Bulls with MJ, the Jazz with Stockton/Malone, the Spurs with Duncan/Parker/Manu, or the Warriors with Curry/Thompson/Green, you can trace the steady progression of each teams towards championship contention as they build organically and then make a moderately significant deal or acquisition to round things out. That's the model for success for non-destination franchises. This was a profoundly one-sided deal in favor of the Jazz. If anyone doubts that, ask yourself whether the Wolves would get anything close to what they just gave up if they suddenly decided to trade Gorbert. I don't think they'd get anything close to what they just gave up. Even CJ McCollum was mocking the deal on social media yesterday.

As you might say, this deal is fraught.