Q12543 wrote:We've seen other bigs with zero outside game turn into very solid 3-point shooters over time (Brook Lopez, Al Horford, Marc Gasol to name a few).
It's just super hard to project these bigs because of the role they played prior to the NBA and the fact that a lot of their impact comes with learning the nuances of positioning, setting screens, and using their length to impact plays without fouling. A ton of this stuff isn't really picked up until they turn pro.
He has all the physical tools to be elite. Is he a student of the game? Is he coachable? Does he love to play? How high is his basketball IQ? Did he show growth as an AAU player?
KAT ended up becoming almost the opposite of what some of us thought he'd be, in that he's on his way to being one of the all time great offensive bigs, yet still doesn't grasp some of the basics of defense despite coming out of Kentucky with high hopes in this area.
That's right, Q. Towns had terrific shot-blocking stats in college on a 36-minute basis and was expected to be a very good defender. What we've seen is that he has very poor defensive instincts and, as a result, he's neither a rim protector or a good defender thus far in his NBA career. In fact, he's a poor defender. As you noted, you have to look behind the curtain at factors like basketball IQ, passion for the game, competitiveness, coachability and work ethic to assess a player's NBA potential and even then you can get it wrong. We have very little insight into these behind-the-curtain factors. We have to assume that the Wolves front office has a lot more information and is capable of analyzing that information effectively. With only so much information to go on, I'm alarmed by any reports that question a draft prospect's basketball IQ/instincts, passion for the game, motor, etc. More often than not, draft prospects with public reports questioning them in those areas tend to underachieve as NBA players.
Unfortunately for the Wolves, all three top prospects in this draft have had questions raised about their motor, passion for the game and/or basketball IQ. In contrast, neither Zion nor Ja had any such questions raised in connection with them leading up to last year's draft. If those two were in this year's draft, the only debate for the Wolves would be whether to draft Zion or Ja and with Russell here the choice would probably be Zion - although I've always had concerns about his ability to stay healthy given how he plays with the weight he carries.
So I remain in the trade-down camp. But as Cam has pointed out, whether the Wolves should trade down depends on who the Wolves are able to get with the lower draft pick and what other assets they receive in return. But it's a tough call.
This is the first draft in a while where I don't have a clear sense of who I'd want the Wolves to take with the #1 pick in the draft.
Last year I would have wanted the Wolves to take Ja Morant at #1, but would have been very happy with Zion. I had no doubt about those two as the right picks at 1 and 2 and I thought Ja was the better fit for the Wolves and had less injury risk.
In 2018, I wasn't as certain about the top pick as I was last year. I would have been torn between Doncic and Jaren Jackson at #1.
In 2017 I would have wanted the Wolves to take Lonzo Ball at #1. I sure got that one wrong. Lesson learned? Shooting matters.
In 2016, I had no doubt Simmons at #1. My next two favorites in that draft were Hield and Murray and I was torn between those two as the right picks for the Wolves at #5.
In 2015 I had no doubt that KAT should be the #1 pick. Thankfully, Flip got that one right.
In 2014, I was torn like I am today about the top pick. I was concerned about the motor issues surrounding Wiggins and the injury concerns surrounding Embiid. But I was also concerned about Parker's prior knee surgery. Those three players were the near consensus top three talents in that draft. So it sort of resembled this year's draft in that sense. By draft night, I was set on Parker as the best pick at #1. Obviously, in hindsight I was wrong.
In 2013 my unequivocal pick at #1 was Oladipo while McCollum was my pick for the Wolves at #9.
In 2012 there was no doubt in my mind or anyone else's mind that Anthony Davis should be the #1 pick.
In 2011, I shared the consensus view that Kyrie Irving should be the #1 pick. I actually thought Darrick Williams was a great pick at #2. Interestingly, there were no public reports questioning his motor or passion for the game. As it turned out, those were the issues that ultimately turned him into a bust.
I'll stop there. I just don't recall being this unsure about who the top pick should be or who the Wolves should take. Right now, I remain stuck on Okongwu as the best choice for the Wolves. I'd be tempted to take him at #1.