Naz Reid and an inconvenient stat

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

"Naz Reid and an inconvenient stat"

This is the title of the YouTube documentary that Q will do at the end of Naz's NBA career. He has a real talent for these you should see his 12 episode docu-series on Jeff Adrian. It's pretty amazing how he was able to distill the life and career of Jeff Adrian into 12 one and a half hour episodes but he did it. I know he has been working on Robbie Hummel's life story but that just keeps writing itself.

Abe commissioned Q to do one that I think is about to be released called "McCants is the Devil" and has some never seen before footage of Roy Williams. Some people have questioned if this upcoming documentary is the real reason Roy Williams decided to retire.

:LOL:

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

I know that he is one of Rosas' key finds and a big feather in his cap, having been signed as an undrafted free agent and looking like a young up and coming NBA big.

Having said that, he had a Net Rating of -9.7 and an even worse Net On/Off Rating. Generally speaking, the Wolves were awful when he was on the court and a lot less awful when he was on the bench. The only semi-regular player whose +/- numbers looked worse was Jarrett Culver. Also keep in mind that Reid's +/- numbers were miserable even in the last 8 games of the season, when the Wolves were playing quite well (by their standards).

Is Naz a victim of bad luck and the noise of +/- or are there some real issues with the way he plays?

I wouldn't call Naz one of Rosas's "key finds and a big feather in his cap". I wouldn't think twice about trading Naz and think he's quite replaceable. That said, sure he's a good free agent signing, but he's not a difference maker in any way and I don't really see a lot of upside there. Hope he proves me wrong, but I highly doubt it.

I think most folks are pretty impressed that Rosas found a rotation-ready big outside of the draft and on the cheap. And some folks think Reid has quite a bit of upside and trade value. You disagree, which is fair since this whole thread questions that premise based on how the team performed when Reid was on the court.

[Lipoli390]

When you take over the basketball operations of a lottery team your sole focus should be on acquiring high-level young talent. To his credit, that has been Gersson's focus. He's missed on some (Culver and Juancho), but he's had a lot of hits, including Edwards, McDaniels, Beasley, and yes, even Russell.

I would also include J-Mac, Kelan Martin and, especially, Naz Reid, in that group of hits. He's played as a 20 and 21 year old in just two seasons as a backup on a bad team with a bad head coach. And he was out of shape his first year, which was part of why he wasn't drafted. So I just think it's way, way too early to judge Reid based on his plus-minus stats. I wonder what Bam Adebayo's plus-minus stats were in his first two seasons. I'm too lazy to check. Miami was a better team his first two seasons than the Wolves have been in Reid's first two. Nevertheless, it would be interesting to see.

[AbeVigodaLive]

When you take over the basketball operations of a lottery team your sole focus should be on acquiring high-level young talent. To his credit, that has been Gersson's focus. He's missed on some (Culver and Juancho), but he's had a lot of hits, including Edwards, McDaniels, Beasley, and yes, even Russell.

I would also include J-Mac, Kelan Martin and, especially, Naz Reid, in that group of hits. He's played as a 20 and 21 year old in just two seasons as a backup on a bad team with a bad head coach. And he was out of shape his first year, which was part of why he wasn't drafted. So I just think it's way, way too early to judge Reid based on his plus-minus stats. I wonder what Bam Adebayo's plus-minus stats were in his first two seasons. I'm too lazy to check. Miami was a better team his first two seasons than the Wolves have been in Reid's first two. Nevertheless, it would be interesting to see.

What's a "hit" can be highly subjective.

In addition, many teams can make similar claims with players. Almost every team. But that's the first step at least, right? It was pretty rare for us to even overvalue many of the young guys when there were so few of them and so few ways to justify it.

Yes. Reid is better than most 2nd rd. picks. McDaniels looks better than most #28 picks. Beasley seems to be worth his contract if he stays out of trouble.

Right now, yep... the Wolves got a young talented guy with flaws who may or may not be helping them on the court. And there's value there obviously. When does Reid get judged vs. other really good backups/borderline starters? I assume when he gets paid? Because at $7M+ or whatever it will be... expectations increase, too.

[FNG]

When you take over the basketball operations of a lottery team your sole focus should be on acquiring high-level young talent. To his credit, that has been Gersson's focus. He's missed on some (Culver and Juancho), but he's had a lot of hits, including Edwards, McDaniels, Beasley, and yes, even Russell.

I would also include J-Mac, Kelan Martin and, especially, Naz Reid, in that group of hits. He's played as a 20 and 21 year old in just two seasons as a backup on a bad team with a bad head coach. And he was out of shape his first year, which was part of why he wasn't drafted. So I just think it's way, way too early to judge Reid based on his plus-minus stats. I wonder what Bam Adebayo's plus-minus stats were in his first two seasons. I'm too lazy to check. Miami was a better team his first two seasons than the Wolves have been in Reid's first two. Nevertheless, it would be interesting to see.

To answer your question about Bam, Lip, he had a negative on/off in his rookie season, but has been positive every year since...mostly because the Heat are so much better defensively when he is on the court. I love Reid's ability to get to the basket and his 3-point success, but I thought he struggled on defense last season. I like Reid's offensive prowess more than Bam's, but there is a huge gap between them defensively...Bam is flat out elite. Reid needs to take some strides defensively to become a consistently positive force on the court.

[AbeVigodaLive]

When you take over the basketball operations of a lottery team your sole focus should be on acquiring high-level young talent. To his credit, that has been Gersson's focus. He's missed on some (Culver and Juancho), but he's had a lot of hits, including Edwards, McDaniels, Beasley, and yes, even Russell.

I would also include J-Mac, Kelan Martin and, especially, Naz Reid, in that group of hits. He's played as a 20 and 21 year old in just two seasons as a backup on a bad team with a bad head coach. And he was out of shape his first year, which was part of why he wasn't drafted. So I just think it's way, way too early to judge Reid based on his plus-minus stats. I wonder what Bam Adebayo's plus-minus stats were in his first two seasons. I'm too lazy to check. Miami was a better team his first two seasons than the Wolves have been in Reid's first two. Nevertheless, it would be interesting to see.

To answer your question about Bam, Lip, he had a negative on/off in his rookie season, but has been positive every year since...mostly because the Heat are so much better defensively when he is on the court. I love Reid's ability to get to the basket and his 3-point success, but I thought he struggled on defense last season. I like Reid's offensive prowess more than Bam's, but there is a huge gap between them defensively...Bam is flat out elite. Reid needs to take some strides defensively to become a consistently positive force on the court.

You might be underselling Abedayo's offensive cred a bit.

18.7 ppg
9.0 reb
5.4 apg
57.0% fg
... and he gets to the line almost as much as Towns

He's not a three point threat but he's a HUGE part of the Miami offense with his versatility. He's great in the PnR on both offense and defense.

[FNG]

When you take over the basketball operations of a lottery team your sole focus should be on acquiring high-level young talent. To his credit, that has been Gersson's focus. He's missed on some (Culver and Juancho), but he's had a lot of hits, including Edwards, McDaniels, Beasley, and yes, even Russell.

I would also include J-Mac, Kelan Martin and, especially, Naz Reid, in that group of hits. He's played as a 20 and 21 year old in just two seasons as a backup on a bad team with a bad head coach. And he was out of shape his first year, which was part of why he wasn't drafted. So I just think it's way, way too early to judge Reid based on his plus-minus stats. I wonder what Bam Adebayo's plus-minus stats were in his first two seasons. I'm too lazy to check. Miami was a better team his first two seasons than the Wolves have been in Reid's first two. Nevertheless, it would be interesting to see.

To answer your question about Bam, Lip, he had a negative on/off in his rookie season, but has been positive every year since...mostly because the Heat are so much better defensively when he is on the court. I love Reid's ability to get to the basket and his 3-point success, but I thought he struggled on defense last season. I like Reid's offensive prowess more than Bam's, but there is a huge gap between them defensively...Bam is flat out elite. Reid needs to take some strides defensively to become a consistently positive force on the court.

You might be underselling Abedayo's offensive cred a bit.

18.7 ppg
9.0 reb
5.4 apg
57.0% fg
... and he gets to the line almost as much as Towns

He's not a three point threat but he's a HUGE part of the Miami offense with his versatility. He's great in the PnR on both offense and defense.

True, he's a solid 2-way player now. I wasn't clear with my comparison. My intention was to compare 21-year-old and second year player Naz to Bam in his second year at 21. While Bam made a big jump offensively in his third year, he was not at Naz's level offensively in his second year. Here are their respective points per 36:

Naz: 21

Bam: 13.7

We can only hope that Naz makes the same leap offensively Bam did in his third year. Even more important would be if he began to look a little more like Bam on defense.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

And that's the rub. Defense. We just seem to have an impossibly hard time finding guys that don't have some gaping hole in their game on one side of the ball. For Naz and KAT, it's defense. Same for DLO, Ant, and Beasley. Basically 5 of our top 8 guys heading into this season are offensive oriented one-way players.

We have two guys on the roster that are pluses on one side while not being minuses on the other: Pat Beverley and Jaden McDaniels....and even Jaden is a bit theoretical since the eye test with him proved more tantalizing than the actual results, which were quite mediocre last season.

Meanwhile, Memphis has worker bees like Kyle Anderson, Dillon Brooks, and Xavier Tillman that just run circles around our Tier II guys en route to a winning record in the Western Conference.

[Monster]

And that's the rub. Defense. We just seem to have an impossibly hard time finding guys that don't have some gaping hole in their game on one side of the ball. For Naz and KAT, it's defense. Same for DLO, Ant, and Beasley. Basically 5 of our top 8 guys heading into this season are offensive oriented one-way players.

We have two guys on the roster that are pluses on one side while not being minuses on the other: Pat Beverley and Jaden McDaniels....and even Jaden is a bit theoretical since the eye test with him proved more tantalizing than the actual results, which were quite mediocre last season.

Meanwhile, Memphis has worker bees like Kyle Anderson, Dillon Brooks, and Xavier Tillman that just run circles around our Tier II guys en route to a winning record in the Western Conference.

FWIW Dillon Brooks career TS% is 51.7 and his best year in that category was his rookie year.

[AbeVigodaLive]

When you take over the basketball operations of a lottery team your sole focus should be on acquiring high-level young talent. To his credit, that has been Gersson's focus. He's missed on some (Culver and Juancho), but he's had a lot of hits, including Edwards, McDaniels, Beasley, and yes, even Russell.

I would also include J-Mac, Kelan Martin and, especially, Naz Reid, in that group of hits. He's played as a 20 and 21 year old in just two seasons as a backup on a bad team with a bad head coach. And he was out of shape his first year, which was part of why he wasn't drafted. So I just think it's way, way too early to judge Reid based on his plus-minus stats. I wonder what Bam Adebayo's plus-minus stats were in his first two seasons. I'm too lazy to check. Miami was a better team his first two seasons than the Wolves have been in Reid's first two. Nevertheless, it would be interesting to see.

To answer your question about Bam, Lip, he had a negative on/off in his rookie season, but has been positive every year since...mostly because the Heat are so much better defensively when he is on the court. I love Reid's ability to get to the basket and his 3-point success, but I thought he struggled on defense last season. I like Reid's offensive prowess more than Bam's, but there is a huge gap between them defensively...Bam is flat out elite. Reid needs to take some strides defensively to become a consistently positive force on the court.

You might be underselling Abedayo's offensive cred a bit.

18.7 ppg
9.0 reb
5.4 apg
57.0% fg
... and he gets to the line almost as much as Towns

He's not a three point threat but he's a HUGE part of the Miami offense with his versatility. He's great in the PnR on both offense and defense.

True, he's a solid 2-way player now. I wasn't clear with my comparison. My intention was to compare 21-year-old and second year player Naz to Bam in his second year at 21. While Bam made a big jump offensively in his third year, he was not at Naz's level offensively in his second year. Here are their respective points per 36:

Naz: 21

Bam: 13.7

We can only hope that Naz makes the same leap offensively Bam did in his third year. Even more important would be if he began to look a little more like Bam on defense.

Oh. Gotcha. Makes sense.