Naz Reid and an inconvenient stat

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

I know that he is one of Rosas' key finds and a big feather in his cap, having been signed as an undrafted free agent and looking like a young up and coming NBA big.

Having said that, he had a Net Rating of -9.7 and an even worse Net On/Off Rating. Generally speaking, the Wolves were awful when he was on the court and a lot less awful when he was on the bench. The only semi-regular player whose +/- numbers looked worse was Jarrett Culver. Also keep in mind that Reid's +/- numbers were miserable even in the last 8 games of the season, when the Wolves were playing quite well (by their standards).

Is Naz a victim of bad luck and the noise of +/- or are there some real issues with the way he plays?

[60WinTim]

There is certainly some "noise" created because he is the only player spending most of his time on the court WITHOUT the benefit of KAT's On/Off numbers....

[Monster]

I know that he is one of Rosas' key finds and a big feather in his cap, having been signed as an undrafted free agent and looking like a young up and coming NBA big.

Having said that, he had a Net Rating of -9.7 and an even worse Net On/Off Rating. Generally speaking, the Wolves were awful when he was on the court and a lot less awful when he was on the bench. The only semi-regular player whose +/- numbers looked worse was Jarrett Culver. Also keep in mind that Reid's +/- numbers were miserable even in the last 8 games of the season, when the Wolves were playing quite well (by their standards).

Is Naz a victim of bad luck and the noise of +/- or are there some real issues with the way he plays?

The only real problem I have is he falls down too much leading to easier transition baskets. He was likely mentored by Towns in this area. Lol

Isn't Avery Bradley one of the guys that advanced stats said was bad at defense etc but that certainly didn't match up with the eye test? Not suggesting Naz is as effective as Bradley was at one time but as you alluded to those stats aren't always perfect.

[kekgeek]

So I am doing a deep dive on Naz to see what I can discover. I am using cleaningtheglass.com

So here are his base On/Off and Lineup #s with no context. (All in pts per 100 possessions)
On/Off: -6.5 (22nd percentile)
Lineup #s: -10 (12th percentile)
So with no context Naz had a bad year when it comes to the Wolves success when he was on the floor. Now I will try and give more context to Naz in his situation going forward.

So Naz had 2666 possessions last year. So lets see how Naz did in lineups that consisted without any of the guys who will not be here next year or projected not to be here next year (Rubio, Culver, Juancho, Davis, Jmac)
Lineup #'s: +1.7 (63rd percentile) in 361 possessions/ 13.5% of his possessions.

So positive spin can be that when Naz was on the floor with none of the players that will be back next year the Wolves were an above average team.

Now lets look at Naz in 2 man combos when he plays with the projected core. (Dlo, Kat, Mcdaniels, Beasley, Ant)
Dlo: -9 (14th percentile)
Kat: -4.2 (32nd percentile)
Ant: - 8.8 (15th percentile)
Mcdaniels: -10.7 (11th percentile)
Beasley: -12.4 (8th percentile)

So it was not pretty when Naz was on the floor with any of the core members.

Naz as a whole had 1 5 man lineup combination that was positive with over 100 total possessions and that was a lineup of Jmac, Dlo, Vandy, Hernangomes and Naz. So when the Wolves went big with Naz on the floor the wolves were actually successful. Only 54 possessions but in lineup combos where we played Naz with Hernangomez and Kat it was a dominate lineup +13.9 (98th percentile). They were also dominate when they played Naz with hernangomez and Vandy the Wolves were a +14 (98th percentile) in over 200 possessions.

Personally I don't put to much stock into Naz on off numbers because when Naz is off the floor that means Kat is on it so I would hope he has a negative +/-

At the end of the day I think we all agree that Naz is actually talented. He can spread the floor, hit a 3, attack bigs off the dribble. I am happy Naz a wolf and his is still really young. Its still a small sample size but maybe the wolves need to look into play Naz with more bigs. When the Wolves played Naz with 2 other bigs the Wolves destroyed their opponents.

At the end of the day its something to look at because this last calendar year the Wolves were not successful with Naz on the floor last year

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

There is certainly some "noise" created because he is the only player spending most of his time on the court WITHOUT the benefit of KAT's On/Off numbers....

Tim! Where ya been!?

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

So I am doing a deep dive on Naz to see what I can discover. I am using cleaningtheglass.com

So here are his base On/Off and Lineup #s with no context. (All in pts per 100 possessions)
On/Off: -6.5 (22nd percentile)
Lineup #s: -10 (12th percentile)
So with no context Naz had a bad year when it comes to the Wolves success when he was on the floor. Now I will try and give more context to Naz in his situation going forward.

So Naz had 2666 possessions last year. So lets see how Naz did in lineups that consisted without any of the guys who will not be here next year or projected not to be here next year (Rubio, Culver, Juancho, Davis, Jmac)
Lineup #'s: +1.7 (63rd percentile) in 361 possessions/ 13.5% of his possessions.

So positive spin can be that when Naz was on the floor with none of the players that will be back next year the Wolves were an above average team.

Now lets look at Naz in 2 man combos when he plays with the projected core. (Dlo, Kat, Mcdaniels, Beasley, Ant)
Dlo: -9 (14th percentile)
Kat: -4.2 (32nd percentile)
Ant: - 8.8 (15th percentile)
Mcdaniels: -10.7 (11th percentile)
Beasley: -12.4 (8th percentile)

So it was not pretty when Naz was on the floor with any of the core members.

Naz as a whole had 1 5 man lineup combination that was positive with over 100 total possessions and that was a lineup of Jmac, Dlo, Vandy, Hernangomes and Naz. So when the Wolves went big with Naz on the floor the wolves were actually successful. Only 54 possessions but in lineup combos where we played Naz with Hernangomez and Kat it was a dominate lineup +13.9 (98th percentile). They were also dominate when they played Naz with hernangomez and Vandy the Wolves were a +14 (98th percentile) in over 200 possessions.

Personally I don't put to much stock into Naz on off numbers because when Naz is off the floor that means Kat is on it so I would hope he has a negative +/-

At the end of the day I think we all agree that Naz is actually talented. He can spread the floor, hit a 3, attack bigs off the dribble. I am happy Naz a wolf and his is still really young. Its still a small sample size but maybe the wolves need to look into play Naz with more bigs. When the Wolves played Naz with 2 other bigs the Wolves destroyed their opponents.

At the end of the day its something to look at because this last calendar year the Wolves were not successful with Naz on the floor last year

Good stuff here Kek. Yeah, it's a little discouraging to see how poorly he did when paired with some of our best players, including KAT.

He certainly looks like a skilled big when he plays, but these numbers are pretty ugly overall. We'll see if it was an aberration or if it continues into this upcoming season. It's another reason I'd like a vet big man added to the roster.

[60WinTim]

There is certainly some "noise" created because he is the only player spending most of his time on the court WITHOUT the benefit of KAT's On/Off numbers....

Tim! Where ya been!?

Under a rock...

And is John Henson not a possibility?

[Monster]

There is certainly some "noise" created because he is the only player spending most of his time on the court WITHOUT the benefit of KAT's On/Off numbers....

Tim! Where ya been!?

Under a rock...

And is John Henson not a possibility?

Good to hear from you Tim.

I'm not sure if Henson is an option or not. It's not like he is ancient or anything. He has been tweeting so he is alive.

[Monster]

"Naz Reid and an inconvenient stat"

This is the title of the YouTube documentary that Q will do at the end of Naz's NBA career. He has a real talent for these you should see his 12 episode docu-series on Jeff Adrian. It's pretty amazing how he was able to distill the life and career of Jeff Adrian into 12 one and a half hour episodes but he did it. I know he has been working on Robbie Hummel's life story but that just keeps writing itself.

Abe commissioned Q to do one that I think is about to be released called "McCants is the Devil" and has some never seen before footage of Roy Williams. Some people have questioned if this upcoming documentary is the real reason Roy Williams decided to retire.

[KG4Ever]

I know that he is one of Rosas' key finds and a big feather in his cap, having been signed as an undrafted free agent and looking like a young up and coming NBA big.

Having said that, he had a Net Rating of -9.7 and an even worse Net On/Off Rating. Generally speaking, the Wolves were awful when he was on the court and a lot less awful when he was on the bench. The only semi-regular player whose +/- numbers looked worse was Jarrett Culver. Also keep in mind that Reid's +/- numbers were miserable even in the last 8 games of the season, when the Wolves were playing quite well (by their standards).

Is Naz a victim of bad luck and the noise of +/- or are there some real issues with the way he plays?

I wouldn't call Naz one of Rosas's "key finds and a big feather in his cap". I wouldn't think twice about trading Naz and think he's quite replaceable. That said, sure he's a good free agent signing, but he's not a difference maker in any way and I don't really see a lot of upside there. Hope he proves me wrong, but I highly doubt it.