fondey wrote:Q12543 wrote:Ah, we haven't had a good PER discussion in a while! Love this stuff.
PER is a volume-slanted stat and is normalized for minutes played and pace of play, so that you can compare two guys with different roles on an apples to apples basis. It loves guys that produce classic box score stats in high volume on a per minute basis: Points, rebounds, assists, blocks, steals. It's calibrated each year such that 15.0 is considered average.
So if you are looking at pure "this guy does a lot of box score shit out there" type of metric, this is a good one.
Wiggins does pretty well with points, averaging around 22 points per 36 minutes this season. However, he's pretty average to mediocre in all the other box score stats, thus his PER is, well, mediocre.
Towns on the other hand produces lots of points, rebounds, and blocks. PER loves rebounds especially, so he gets a ton of credit (Drummond is posting a PER of 26.8 so far this season!).
What PER doesn't do as good of job of measuring is defense (which none of the box-score oriented stats really do a good job at) and scoring efficiency. So volume chuckers like Jamaal Crawford or even Kobe who aren't very efficient scorers get credit for scoring a bunch of points anyway. Other more efficiency-tilted metric (like Win Shares and Wins Produced) seem to put a little less emphasis on volume scoring versus scoring efficiency.
In KAT's case, he's doing well on ALL of the metrics: +/-, PER, Win Shares...You name it. Wiggins has posted a mediocre PER so far while doing even worse in win shares because the inefficiency of his first few games are still hanging over him.
I personally prefer four metrics: PER, Wins Shares/48, RPM (on the ESPN stats site), and On/Off rating, combined with subjective observation (i.e. watching the games!) to formulate a comprehensive view of the player. PER is unique among this group because it measures purely individual output, without team impact or context.
This is great. Thank you so much!
With Towns establishing a 22.0 PER as his floor, the ceiling is sky high. Drummond is playing out of his mind and is only 5 points ahead of him. Both players' performances are absolutely amazing so far, but I think Towns numbers so far are more sustainable than Drummond throughout the entire year(and if I'm wrong, we can just hand the MVP award to Drummond in a couple months).
Now when it comes to Wiggins. He finished last year with a ~14.00 PER. So this year's small sample size seems right on the same pace as last year's overall effort. I tend to think we'll see this type of output from him throughout the season. for every 2 amazing games, we have 2 average games, and 2 bad games. It's really hard for him to be consistent considering the shots he's taking right now.
Do you guys anticipate him improving in that respect? It doesn't seem to be a priority to get Wiggins easier shots. We tend to go to him in isolation a fair amount, and that inevitably leads to him taking step back jumpers and off balance shots. Coaches can urge him to drive more, but in isolation, you have to take what the defense gives you, and Wiggins seems content going to the step back jumper when it's given to him. I guess what I'm saying is, I think Wiggins has found his offensive game and will continue to master what he's already developed, but I don't think we'll ever see that much statistical improvement from him. That's not saying he won't improve, but more so that stats don't seem to do justice to the total player Wiggins is on each side of the court right now(as you mentioned Q, the flaws of PER).
The one thing I'd like to see is Wiggins make more plays for teammates. If he learns to feed Towns and Belly when they are open--and there's been a few times this year the opportunity to pass is there and he doesn't pass it--the game will become so much easier for him and the team.
I do think he will improve, as he's still a very young player and even when his shot is off, his ability to get to the line is already pretty elite. If he can get the 3-ball to fall consistently and with volume, lookout.
As for the passing, most elite wing scorers tend to improve on this over time, as they get accustomed to dealing with double-teams and collapsing defenses. Here are some rookie year assists per 36 minutes numbers vs. 5th year numbers for some of the NBA's scoring wings:
Durant - 2.5, 3.6
Harden - 2.8, 5.8
George - 1.8, 3.5 (used 4th year in his case, right before the leg injury and position change)
Gay - 1.7, 2.6
Pierce - 2.5, 4.1
Kobe - 3.0, 4.4
Manu - 3.5, 4.6 (and keep in mind he was a 25-year old rookie and still improved)
Wiggins - 2.1, ???
The bottom line is that his assists will go up and that will help his PER.
