Wiggins vs Karl Anthony Towns PER

[fondey [enjin:6644772]]

I stumbled on something interesting when looking at Wiggins' stats today. His PER seems awfully low considering what he's provided on the court. I think a lot of it is his weak shooting early in the season. But I thought this comparison was interesting as it forces me to accept 1 of 2 conclusions:

Wiggins
19.8 points, 1.7 ast, 3.8 Rbd, 0.5 BLK, 14.03 PER
KAT
15.5 points, 1.2 ast, 10.0 Rbd, 3.0 BLK, 21.92 PER

Either, 1. KAT is having a much bigger impact on the court than Wiggins
or 2. PER is a poor determinant of measuring a player's impact on the court.

I realize how difficult it is to compare players with just one stat, but I would never have expected this much of a discrepancy. Kudos to KAT. He is impressive in every facet of the game so far. Do you guys think this is just a small sample size and Wiggins PER will improve, or do you think this is telling of how much less of an impact Wiggins is having compared to Towns when you look at the overall picture?

Or, does PER just suck as a stat when you compare perimeter players vs Post players? (I do think it has plenty of worth comparing players of the same position, or comparing a player's impact over different seasons, but I can see why it would fail for a player like Wiggins who doesn't really fill up the box score and is forced to take a lot of tough shots, but still plays solid D and regularly makes good decisions)

[AbeVigodaLive]

I think Towns has been better (more consistently) than Wiggins on the court and PER might be one of many metrics used to reflect that.

It's only been 6 games. So, a couple of subpar games by Wiggins will reveal itself in such a stat.

[TAFKASP]

Maybe there is a third option:

3.KAT has had a bigger impact through six games, even if not the last two, and PER isn't a be all, end all Stat.

[60WinTim]

Okay, I do not like Mojo as your profile picture. You should go back to the Flip logo, and just post Mojo in the game threads... ;-)

As Abe pointed out, Wiggins had 4 subpar games to start the season. It will take more than just 2 great games to bring the PER back up. Where as KAT has been solid every single game, with the exception of the Miami game. Given time, Wiggins and KAT PERs will both be highest on the team. Hopefully Rubio's scoring efficiency will keep him close behind!

[Carlos Danger]

I'm far from an expert, but I like PER. I believe the reason KAT is higher than Wiggins has a lot to do with FG% (aka "Efficiency"). Wiggins is shooting 100 points lower than KAT. Also, I believe PER incorporates Rebounds and obviously KAT is very strong there. I think PER is a very good measurement of a player. There will be anomalies. But it's generally pretty good indicator of what the player is doing. If you would have checked Wiggins PER before yesterday, it was in the low single digits.

[kurrdog53 [enjin:7013678]]

I have always liked looking at the PER on total impact on a game. If Wiggins scores 25 but gets 2 rebounds and 1 assist, he will have a low PER. KAT is averaging a double-double with 3.0 blocks and (probably) a lower rate of TOs.

When Wiggins averages 22pts, 5-6rebs, and 3-4 assists, I assume his PER will reflect it.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Ah, we haven't had a good PER discussion in a while! Love this stuff.

PER is a volume-slanted stat and is normalized for minutes played and pace of play, so that you can compare two guys with different roles on an apples to apples basis. It loves guys that produce classic box score stats in high volume on a per minute basis: Points, rebounds, assists, blocks, steals. It's calibrated each year such that 15.0 is considered average.

So if you are looking at pure "this guy does a lot of box score shit out there" type of metric, this is a good one.

Wiggins does pretty well with points, averaging around 22 points per 36 minutes this season. However, he's pretty average to mediocre in all the other box score stats, thus his PER is, well, mediocre.

Towns on the other hand produces lots of points, rebounds, and blocks. PER loves rebounds especially, so he gets a ton of credit (Drummond is posting a PER of 26.8 so far this season!).

What PER doesn't do as good of job of measuring is defense (which none of the box-score oriented stats really do a good job at) and scoring efficiency. So volume chuckers like Jamaal Crawford or even Kobe who aren't very efficient scorers get credit for scoring a bunch of points anyway. Other more efficiency-tilted metric (like Win Shares and Wins Produced) seem to put a little less emphasis on volume scoring versus scoring efficiency.

In KAT's case, he's doing well on ALL of the metrics: +/-, PER, Win Shares...You name it. Wiggins has posted a mediocre PER so far while doing even worse in win shares because the inefficiency of his first few games are still hanging over him.

I personally prefer four metrics: PER, Wins Shares/48, RPM (on the ESPN stats site), and On/Off rating, combined with subjective observation (i.e. watching the games!) to formulate a comprehensive view of the player. PER is unique among this group because it measures purely individual output, without team impact or context.

[fondey [enjin:6644772]]

I have always liked looking at the PER on total impact on a game. If Wiggins scores 25 but gets 2 rebounds and 1 assist, he will have a low PER. KAT is averaging a double-double with 3.0 blocks and (probably) a lower rate of TOs.

When Wiggins averages 22pts, 5-6rebs, and 3-4 assists, I assume his PER will reflect it.

This is more what I was after. Is there a measurement out there that gives equal credit to a solid perimeter defender who gets an average amount of steals and plays great 1 on 1 D, compared to a solid post defender who gets an above average number of blocks, but plays average 1 on 1 D? This isn't truly the case as I think Towns' 1 on 1 D is above average, but in general it seems like post players get more credit for their defensive stats than perimeter players.

Steals are not even a great indicator of how good a player is on defense. The best defenders don't even need to go for steals. They deny the ball, forcing the team to pass to other players, and then they stay in front of their man and force a pass or a bad a shot. I feel Wiggins falls in this category whereas Brewer falls in the: gets a lot of steals at the cost of giving up easier shots more often.

[fondey [enjin:6644772]]

Ah, we haven't had a good PER discussion in a while! Love this stuff.

PER is a volume-slanted stat and is normalized for minutes played and pace of play, so that you can compare two guys with different roles on an apples to apples basis. It loves guys that produce classic box score stats in high volume on a per minute basis: Points, rebounds, assists, blocks, steals. It's calibrated each year such that 15.0 is considered average.

So if you are looking at pure "this guy does a lot of box score shit out there" type of metric, this is a good one.

Wiggins does pretty well with points, averaging around 22 points per 36 minutes this season. However, he's pretty average to mediocre in all the other box score stats, thus his PER is, well, mediocre.

Towns on the other hand produces lots of points, rebounds, and blocks. PER loves rebounds especially, so he gets a ton of credit (Drummond is posting a PER of 26.8 so far this season!).

What PER doesn't do as good of job of measuring is defense (which none of the box-score oriented stats really do a good job at) and scoring efficiency. So volume chuckers like Jamaal Crawford or even Kobe who aren't very efficient scorers get credit for scoring a bunch of points anyway. Other more efficiency-tilted metric (like Win Shares and Wins Produced) seem to put a little less emphasis on volume scoring versus scoring efficiency.

In KAT's case, he's doing well on ALL of the metrics: +/-, PER, Win Shares...You name it. Wiggins has posted a mediocre PER so far while doing even worse in win shares because the inefficiency of his first few games are still hanging over him.

I personally prefer four metrics: PER, Wins Shares/48, RPM (on the ESPN stats site), and On/Off rating, combined with subjective observation (i.e. watching the games!) to formulate a comprehensive view of the player. PER is unique among this group because it measures purely individual output, without team impact or context.

This is great. Thank you so much!

With Towns establishing a 22.0 PER as his floor, the ceiling is sky high. Drummond is playing out of his mind and is only 5 points ahead of him. Both players' performances are absolutely amazing so far, but I think Towns numbers so far are more sustainable than Drummond throughout the entire year(and if I'm wrong, we can just hand the MVP award to Drummond in a couple months).

Now when it comes to Wiggins. He finished last year with a ~14.00 PER. So this year's small sample size seems right on the same pace as last year's overall effort. I tend to think we'll see this type of output from him throughout the season. for every 2 amazing games, we have 2 average games, and 2 bad games. It's really hard for him to be consistent considering the shots he's taking right now.

Do you guys anticipate him improving in that respect? It doesn't seem to be a priority to get Wiggins easier shots. We tend to go to him in isolation a fair amount, and that inevitably leads to him taking step back jumpers and off balance shots. Coaches can urge him to drive more, but in isolation, you have to take what the defense gives you, and Wiggins seems content going to the step back jumper when it's given to him. I guess what I'm saying is, I think Wiggins has found his offensive game and will continue to master what he's already developed, but I don't think we'll ever see that much statistical improvement from him. That's not saying he won't improve, but more so that stats don't seem to do justice to the total player Wiggins is on each side of the court right now(as you mentioned Q, the flaws of PER).

The one thing I'd like to see is Wiggins make more plays for teammates. If he learns to feed Towns and Belly when they are open--and there's been a few times this year the opportunity to pass is there and he doesn't pass it--the game will become so much easier for him and the team.

[TAFKASP]

Okay, I do not like Mojo as your profile picture. You should go back to the Flip logo, and just post Mojo in the game threads... ;-\

Fine, the Mojo image is game thread only! She gave me an updated selfie for the profile picture!