Let’s Not Underestimate DLO

[Q-is-here]

The reality is that if Ant, Jaden, and Nowell - or even if two out of three of those guys - take another step up this year in production, DLO becomes less critical to our success. The key is we don't want to have to over-rely on him to create shots and get buckets. And the only way that happens is if these other guys stall out or get hurt.

I hope he gets around 30-32 MPG with a usage of around 20%. That will be a good thing because it means other guys are picking up more of the workload. Then we just have to hope to God his catch and shoot 3-point shot is falling this season.

[Q-is-here]

There's quite a bit of conjecture in this thread already as well as some repetitive narratives, but overall it's a good thread and I'm glad Lip initiated it because I've long thought that this board has underestimated D'Angelo Russell ever since his acquisition, for one reason or the other. He's a polarizing player, no doubt about it, but he's often talked about here as if he brings little to no value to this roster. That couldn't be further from the truth.

I can (and already have) provided various statistics that portray Russell as a positive contributor and above average performer in relation to the rest of the league, but rather than do so again at risk of tiring those that oppose my view, I'll end my comment with this more simplistic view.

The Timberwolves are significantly better with Russell than without him. Minnesota wins more with Russell than without him. And the Timberwolves' best players last year performed at a higher, more efficient level next to Russell than when he was off the floor. All of this points to Russell being a valuable piece to this puzzle.

I'm expecting a mini-breakout campaign or resurgence, if you will, for Russell this year as the roster better suits him now and the coaching staff will have little choice but to adhere to his strengths now that they align with Rudy Gobert's. Ideally, Russell and the organization will come to some sort of an agreement on an extension prior to the season because if they don't I feel that Russell will increase his market value before next summer where he'll be one of the more attractive options in free agency. He'll either sign with another team or cost more to retain in that scenario, and neither outcome is beneficial for the Timberwolves.

I think this is the best case scenario if we can unlock his PnR game with Rudy on offense. However, Rudy also creates a bit of a problem defensively for DLO. He's actually going to have to try to fight over screens now and stick with his man a lot more. He was much better playing a roving traffic cop when the bigs showed really hard and he didn't have to get his hands dirty fighting through screens.

Finally, while the numbers don't lie about his impact on team performance when on the floor last year, I think some of us believe he sort of puts a cap on our ceiling if he doesn't change his game and role on the team.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

There's quite a bit of conjecture in this thread already as well as some repetitive narratives, but overall it's a good thread and I'm glad Lip initiated it because I've long thought that this board has underestimated D'Angelo Russell ever since his acquisition, for one reason or the other. He's a polarizing player, no doubt about it, but he's often talked about here as if he brings little to no value to this roster. That couldn't be further from the truth.

I can (and already have) provided various statistics that portray Russell as a positive contributor and above average performer in relation to the rest of the league, but rather than do so again at risk of tiring those that oppose my view, I'll end my comment with this more simplistic view.

The Timberwolves are significantly better with Russell than without him. Minnesota wins more with Russell than without him. And the Timberwolves' best players last year performed at a higher, more efficient level next to Russell than when he was off the floor. All of this points to Russell being a valuable piece to this puzzle.

I'm expecting a mini-breakout campaign or resurgence, if you will, for Russell this year as the roster better suits him now and the coaching staff will have little choice but to adhere to his strengths now that they align with Rudy Gobert's. Ideally, Russell and the organization will come to some sort of an agreement on an extension prior to the season because if they don't I feel that Russell will increase his market value before next summer where he'll be one of the more attractive options in free agency. He'll either sign with another team or cost more to retain in that scenario, and neither outcome is beneficial for the Timberwolves.

I think this is the best case scenario if we can unlock his PnR game with Rudy on offense. However, Rudy also creates a bit of a problem defensively for DLO. He's actually going to have to try to fight over screens now and stick with his man a lot more. He was much better playing a roving traffic cop when the bigs showed really hard and he didn't have to get his hands dirty fighting through screens.

Finally, while the numbers don't lie about his impact on team performance when on the floor last year, I think some of us believe he sort of puts a cap on our ceiling if he doesn't change his game and role on the team.

- It's been proven multiple times now in two different defensive schemes that teams can construct a respectable defense with D'Angelo Russell playing a significant amount of minutes. In 2018, Russell led the Brooklyn Nets in minutes played while playing primarily in drop coverage with Jarrett Allen. That Nets team was 14th-best in defensive rating, which is just fine. Injuries both to himself and teammates derailed the following seasons in 2019 and 2020, but in 2021 the Minnesota Timberwolves had the 13th-best defensive rating while playing a "high wall" or hard hedge and recover scheme -- with Russell playing the third-most minutes on the team. This is all to say that while Russell is not a great defender you can still play good enough defensively with him in the mix. And none of his teammates, however, have been elite defensively like Rudy Gobert.

- I just can't align myself with that thinking. I don't see how having another talented ball-handler and shot creator puts a cap on the team's ceiling, especially when that player has willingly taken a backseat for the two primary scorers on the team. Not to mention, he's been consistently vocal about wanting to play off the ball more. That just hasn't been afforded to him yet in Minnesota due to roster construction and coaching philosophy. Frankly, it's out of necessity that he's had to carry a high usage because they've lacked the adequate shot-creators and shot-makers around him that would allow him to alter his role even further. That entire belief or concern just doesn't seem valid to me.

[Q-is-here]

There's quite a bit of conjecture in this thread already as well as some repetitive narratives, but overall it's a good thread and I'm glad Lip initiated it because I've long thought that this board has underestimated D'Angelo Russell ever since his acquisition, for one reason or the other. He's a polarizing player, no doubt about it, but he's often talked about here as if he brings little to no value to this roster. That couldn't be further from the truth.

I can (and already have) provided various statistics that portray Russell as a positive contributor and above average performer in relation to the rest of the league, but rather than do so again at risk of tiring those that oppose my view, I'll end my comment with this more simplistic view.

The Timberwolves are significantly better with Russell than without him. Minnesota wins more with Russell than without him. And the Timberwolves' best players last year performed at a higher, more efficient level next to Russell than when he was off the floor. All of this points to Russell being a valuable piece to this puzzle.

I'm expecting a mini-breakout campaign or resurgence, if you will, for Russell this year as the roster better suits him now and the coaching staff will have little choice but to adhere to his strengths now that they align with Rudy Gobert's. Ideally, Russell and the organization will come to some sort of an agreement on an extension prior to the season because if they don't I feel that Russell will increase his market value before next summer where he'll be one of the more attractive options in free agency. He'll either sign with another team or cost more to retain in that scenario, and neither outcome is beneficial for the Timberwolves.

I think this is the best case scenario if we can unlock his PnR game with Rudy on offense. However, Rudy also creates a bit of a problem defensively for DLO. He's actually going to have to try to fight over screens now and stick with his man a lot more. He was much better playing a roving traffic cop when the bigs showed really hard and he didn't have to get his hands dirty fighting through screens.

Finally, while the numbers don't lie about his impact on team performance when on the floor last year, I think some of us believe he sort of puts a cap on our ceiling if he doesn't change his game and role on the team.

- It's been proven multiple times now in two different defensive schemes that teams can construct a respectable defense with D'Angelo Russell playing a significant amount of minutes. In 2018, Russell led the Brooklyn Nets in minutes played while playing primarily in drop coverage with Jarrett Allen. That Nets team was 14th-best in defensive rating, which is just fine. Injuries both to himself and teammates derailed the following seasons in 2019 and 2020, but in 2021 the Minnesota Timberwolves had the 13th-best defensive rating while playing a "high wall" or hard hedge and recover scheme -- with Russell playing the third-most minutes on the team. This is all to say that while Russell is not a great defender you can still play good enough defensively with him in the mix. And none of his teammates, however, have been elite defensively like Rudy Gobert.

- I just can't align myself with that thinking. I don't see how having another talented ball-handler and shot creator puts a cap on the team's ceiling, especially when that player has willingly taken a backseat for the two primary scorers on the team. Not to mention, he's been consistently vocal about wanting to play off the ball more. That just hasn't been afforded to him yet in Minnesota due to roster construction and coaching philosophy. Frankly, it's out of necessity that he's had to carry a high usage because they've lacked the adequate shot-creators and shot-makers around him that would allow him to alter his role even further. That entire belief or concern just doesn't seem valid to me.

On your first point, I get that DLO can be part of a solid, functioning defense. That's not good enough anymore, especially since the Rudy/KAT combo will be somewhat exploited by the elite playoff teams defensively. That just makes it all the more important that we have really good perimeter defenders. Other than Ant (when he's locked in, which isn't always the case), we have a real soft spot in our guard defense. I worry that Austin Rivers is going to get more playing time than we'd all like him to get....

On your second point, we'll see what happens this next season. I'm open to the idea that others continue their ascent offensively and he willingly settles into a role of set-up man, PnR whiz, and off ball floor spacer. But if not, then his high volume inefficiency is what puts a cap on our offensive potential.

[Lipoli390]

Interesting comments from Finch about DLO. Sounds like the communication between the two is good. And Finch is rightly positive about how Gobert's presence should enhance DLO's offensive game. But Finch is also rightly concerned about DLO defensively in what will likely be a significantly different defensive scheme with Gobert:

"What have your conversations been like with D'Angelo? Chris Finch: Incredibly positive, of course. He's very excited, as all of our guys are. He knows how important a rolling big is to his game. ... One thing we might not be able to do as much is kind of play him off the ball [on defense] as much as we had done as a roamer. We don't need that now. He's got to be a little more locked in. ... That's going to be a little different for him. His competitiveness on the ball, everyone might have to guard their natural position a little bit more than we had done in the last year. So those are all things that come to mind initially when I think about it. But he's very excited. We feel like this gives us a chance, gives him a chance to get the best version of him, which is what you want." - via Chris Hine @ Minneapolis Star-Tribune

[Lipoli390]

Finch's comments about the change is DLO's defensive role with Gobert on the court is another reminder of the large question market surrounding the Wolves defense going into next season. Yes, Gobert's presence should improve our overall defense. But the addition of Gobert's defense has to be weighed against the loss of the perimeter defense provided by Beverley and Vanderbilt as well as the likely change in the team's defensive scheme that will put more pressure on DLO to guard one-on-one. I'm as concerned about DLO backsliding defensively as I am excited about the likely positive impact Gobert's presence will have on his offense.

[Q-is-here]

Finch's comments about the change is DLO's defensive role with Gobert on the court is another reminder of the large question market surrounding the Wolves defense going into next season. Yes, Gobert's presence should improve our overall defense. But the addition of Gobert's defense has to be weighed against the loss of the perimeter defense provided by Beverley and Vanderbilt as well as the likely change in the team's defensive scheme that will put more pressure on DLO to guard one-on-one. I'm as concerned about DLO backsliding defensively as I am excited about the likely positive impact Gobert's presence will have on his offense.

Yup....Ant would be ideally paired with a plus level PG defender. That's why my ideal player profile next to Ant (and this is with or without Gobert) is a healthy Lonzo Ball. $20M per year and an absolute perfect fit.

[Coolbreeze44]

McDaniels spent a lot of time last year guarding the opponents point guard. I expect that to continue this year. Thus, I'm not too worried about our defense on the ball.

[AbeVigodaLive]

Finch's comments about the change is DLO's defensive role with Gobert on the court is another reminder of the large question market surrounding the Wolves defense going into next season. Yes, Gobert's presence should improve our overall defense. But the addition of Gobert's defense has to be weighed against the loss of the perimeter defense provided by Beverley and Vanderbilt as well as the likely change in the team's defensive scheme that will put more pressure on DLO to guard one-on-one. I'm as concerned about DLO backsliding defensively as I am excited about the likely positive impact Gobert's presence will have on his offense.

Yes. The Wolves will look entirely different this season on defense. They played a very aggressive attacking style last year and it largely worked. But was repeatable... or simply fool's gold and primed for a regression?

Based on what I've heard from league insiders and the Wolves pursuit of Gobert, I think it's largely the latter. It was a great one-season tactic that had a shelf life. A team with Gobert would seem to have A LOT more wiggle room defensively, even without the ideal defensive components around him.

[Q-is-here]

Finch's comments about the change is DLO's defensive role with Gobert on the court is another reminder of the large question market surrounding the Wolves defense going into next season. Yes, Gobert's presence should improve our overall defense. But the addition of Gobert's defense has to be weighed against the loss of the perimeter defense provided by Beverley and Vanderbilt as well as the likely change in the team's defensive scheme that will put more pressure on DLO to guard one-on-one. I'm as concerned about DLO backsliding defensively as I am excited about the likely positive impact Gobert's presence will have on his offense.

Yes. The Wolves will look entirely different this season on defense. They played a very aggressive attacking style last year and it largely worked. But was repeatable... or simply fool's gold and primed for a regression?

Based on what I've heard from league insiders and the Wolves pursuit of Gobert, I think it's largely the latter. It was a great one-season tactic that had a shelf life. A team with Gobert would seem to have A LOT more wiggle room defensively, even without the ideal defensive components around him.

This for sure. The most obvious change is that they can go drop with one of the best defensive bigs of all time. But I'd be intrigued to see how we do if we play some high-wall coverage with him against teams where we are trying to get the ball out of the hands of ball-dominant scorers (e.g. Doncic or Morant).