Let’s Not Underestimate DLO

[Lipoli390]

I think we've exhausted the topic of trading DLO. I think he's here to stay for at least another season and I believe there's a good chance he'll be here longer. So maybe we should take some time to consider just how good he is and what he adds to the team, especially with Rudy Gobert in the fold.

I've never been a fan of DLO's game. He's too slow and methodical for my taste. He has too often stalled the ball and impeded the flow of our offense and has been prone to take too many ill-advised highly contested shots. He's also been prone to too many defensive lapses. However, he was clearly much better in all those categories last season. And I think those negatives have unfairly obscured our take on his many positives.

I'll start by reminding everyone that he was the 2nd pick in the 2015 draft. And it's important to remember that he was expected to be a top three pick in that draft as he was widely viewed at the time as a legitimate top 3 talent. Coming out of college he was one of those rare PGs who was considered both an elite facilitator and elite scorer. He struggled when he first came to the League, but he was young and we all have to acknowledge how difficult it must have been to adjust to the situation in LA at the time. The fact that he's bounced around since then attests to the fact that he has significant flaws. But as he's bounced around he's managed to put up some really good numbers AND make an all-star appearance at age 23. Moreover, as he's bounced around, I suspect he's been humbled and learned because, no matter how much you might dislike him, you have to admit he's smart. And if we learned anything about him last season, we learned that he's a terrific a teammate. Even when he didn't play well or was benched by the head coach, he never sulked, complained or whined like so many NBA players tend to do. I remember when he was yanked in the Memphis series. He still gave JMac a huge enthusiastic high five and enthusiastically pulled for his teammates from the bench. I'll add that he was one of only two Wolves roster players who attended the Wolves Summer League this year. He loves basketball, is close to his teammates and is excited about the upcoming season.

DLO has played well, albeit not great, since coming to the Wolves. He's certainly played well enough to merit some respect. The numbers tell us he was a definite positive and major reason why the Wolves took a huge leap forward last season. Moreover, I think it's important to note that until Finch came here, he didn't have a head coach who knew how to use him. And even after Finch arrived, DLO didn't have teammates or a system ideally suited to his strengths. DLO's biggest strength as a PG is his elite ability to facilitate the pick-and-roll; yet he's been paired with a big, namely KAT, who is notoriously bad at that part of the game. But that's about to change. Rudy Gobert isn't just better than KAT at pick-and-roll; he's elite in that aspect of the game. That addition can't help but take DLO's play to another level. If you doubt me, check out this video of DLO playing with Jarrett Allen in Brooklyn:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PgP_phi4zzo

DLO is 26 years old and just entering the prime of his career. He's been humbled and forced to learn from his mistakes. He's genuinely excited about the Wolves team he''ll be playing with next season. So I'm excited about what DLO can do for the Wolves next season with KAT, Edwards, McDaniels and Gobert. Finchy needs to make sure DLO keeps the ball moving while not chucking up tough shots too often on offense, and that he continues to put forth the defensive effort he gave last season. I have a strong feeling that DLO will have a career year next season. And we should be careful not to underestimate DLO's value to this team or the fact that, if he plays at the level he played his all-star season in Brooklyn, he will key a reason for what should be a really successful Wolves season.

[thedoper]

DLO is a good basketball player. His stats are complex and his offense is better than his D. He'd be challenging to play with at times because hes methodical and plays at his own pace. Hes still good, people will have plenty of advanced statistical ammo if they already dont like him, it really doesnt change his talent or ability. Id love him at 25 per, would live with 30, would trade him for Fox straight up but Im not sure we could or whether an upgrade is truly out there. Go Wolves.

[FNG]

Lip, I don't think there's much chance of this board underestimating Russell! I think as a group we (with a few exceptions) consistently rank him well ahead of where non-Wolves fans and NBA analysts rank him. I would suggest that rather than worrying about underestimating DLo, we should try to keep it 100% real when we talk about him rather than overestimating what he provides. I would rather be surprised if someone exceeds my expectations than be disappointed when he underperforms.

I agree with you on a couple points. Toward the end of the dreadful 2020-21 season, I began to observe at Target Center what you have seen...DLo is a very good teammate. I like his energy on the sidelines or bench when he interacts with his teammates or coaches. And I also think he is one of the smartest players on the team...both in a basketball sense and a real life sense. I like him personally and always want him to succeed.

But also...

1) Yes, he was the second pick in the draft. But the only 2nd pick in Wolves history was Derrick Williams.

2) While he had a decent year defensively last year, his on-ball defense is still substandard. I hope (and it seems like I am always "hoping" with Russell) that his defense doesn't revert this season to what it was pre-Beverly, but I have to admit I have concerns in this area. Many of us have nightmares of DLo shouting and pointing where his teammates should be on defense as his man puts up an uncontested three or glides in for a layup.

3) He is almost always ranked by analysts in the lower half of starting NBA PGs. In the recent tiering article in the Athletic, he was ranked in the bottom of 5 tiers when ranking 125 NBA players. Sometimes local fans understand the true value of one of their own better than the national pundits, but not often.

4) The advanced stats don't lie, and always make it difficult to be optimistic about what DLo brings. While some want to call him a good 3-point shooter, he regularly shoots at a percentage below the league average for PGs, and last year made only 34% of his threes. We all know he ranks poorly in shooting efficiency...his career 52.3 TS% is far below the league average. Basketball reference gives him an offensive rating of only 104, and a defensive rating of 113...only Andrew Wiggins has a negative rating almost as poor as Russell's among max players, but Wig at least got his rating to neutral last season while DLo remained negative. He has had a negative on/off rating in 5 of his 7 seasons. And finally, his tendency to play hero ball and take ill-advised shots at critical moments rather than finding a better option is a habit he has great difficulty breaking, and is a major contributing factor to his inefficiency.

5) Finally as you mentioned, let's not forget how his 2022 season ended. Yes, he supported J-Mac in the sidelines...we agree he seems to be a very good teammate. But I'm more concerned that a coach I admire a lot didn't feel he could trust him at the most critical moment of the season.

So while my excitement for the upcoming season is sky-high (having 3 potential future hall of famers in the starting lineup has to excite anyone!), I continue to have concerns about how DLo will perform this season. If he can play within himself and look to facilitate his much more efficient teammates rather than putting up too many shots at a 52.3 TS%, and if he can at least play average defense, he can be an important contributor to a near-60 win team. But if he plays more like he has most of his career and Finchie doesn't hold him accountable (like he did in the final playoff game), my high expectations for this team will not materialize.

So, I remain hopeful. But I think we have to remain realistic about how DLo is perceived outside of Minnesota. But man, I really hope Russell can surprise me!

[Lipoli390]

FNG - You're such a kill-joy! Spare me the facts and let my emotions run wild! :)

Seriously, lots of good points with supporting data. I'll offer a couple minor points.

First, I'm sure you know the Darrick Williams comparison was way over the top, although I get why you used it. Yes, there have been some bad 1st and 2nd round picks before and Williams was one of them. But Russell was far more highly thought of than Williams coming out of college and had an array of advanced skills Williams didn't have. Moreover, Williams never did anything in the NBA to suggest he was worthy of being drafted at all, much less the top of the lottery. As it turns out, he had no interest in playing the game. DLO is WAY different. He clearly loves the game; he's knows as a basketball junkie. And he's obviously played a lot of quality basketball in the NBA. I'd say that DLO is more akin to someone like Chauncey Billups who was a high lottery pick but took longer than expected to hit his stride consistently.

Second, I think the on/off rating is a tough stat to rely on but it's also one of the most telling. I tend to focus on his two positive on/off seasons because they both happened when he played on good winning teams and one of those two was the most recent. Therefore, I think those two positive seasons are more predictive because he'll be playing on a really talented team against next season and only one season removed from last season's net positive rating.

Finally, I agree with you that the key for DLO (and the Wolves) is whether he will (1) maintain the level of defensive effort he showed last season; and (2) become more of a facilitator on the offensive end. He'll need to keep the ball moving even more than he did last season and forego those bad, hotly contested shots that have resulted in his poor shooting efficiency over the years. A really good season for DLO statistically on the offensive end next season would be 15 points, 10 assists and another 10 hockey assists.

It's definitely fair for you to suggest caution when forming expectations for DLO - even if it brings me down. :)

[FNG]

LOL, Lip...hey, it's what we do here! We perform a service by not allowing board members to get too high, thereby risking jumping out a window when things inevitably go south. You yourself (along with D-Loser and some others) are performing that service by pointing out why the Gobert deal might not be the slam dunk home run that rubes like me are claiming it is. I still am sky high about the deal, but I read what the naysayers post and it moderates my view...just a little though.

Anyway, I'm going to stay with my view that the odds of this board underestimating DLo are about equal to my chances of winning the lottery this week!

[Lipoli390]

LOL, Lip...hey, it's what we do here! We perform a service by not allowing board members to get too high, thereby risking jumping out a window when things inevitably go south. You yourself (along with D-Loser and some others) are performing that service by pointing out why the Gobert deal might not be the slam dunk home run that rubes like me are claiming it is. I still am sky high about the deal, but I read what the naysayers post and it moderates my view...just a little though.

Anyway, I'm going to stay with my view that the odds of this board underestimating DLo are about equal to my chances of winning the lottery this week!

You've definitely captured one of the major values of this board. I love reading countervailing views. It not only keeps me from setting myself up for disappointment and jumping out a window, it also educates me.

By the way, based on your last sentence, I recommend that you load up on lottery tickets this week. I think the vast majority on this board - everyone but Cam and a couple others - is poised to underestimate DLO. I'll just take your posts as a caution to not overestimate him.

[D-Mac [enjin:19736340]]

Haha yes I won't be losing any sleep worrying that this board will underestimate Dlo. You have people like doper saying that they would love Dlo at 25/year and like Dlo at 30/year, and I'd say this is pretty representative of the majority of this board. My first question to people holding this view is how in the world do you expect the pay Ant, Jaden and even Nowell? I mean you can't just throw money around Willy nilly and expect to have enough later when you really want it. Obviously Ant will get a max regardless, but do you think we'll be able to keep Jaden if we extend Dlo at 30/year? I do not. I also don't think there's any chance we're able to keep nowell if we pay Dlo what you're suggesting. With the insane contracts that we are paying two centers already, I think our best strategy now is to try and lock up jaden and nowell to bargain contracts (nowell now and jaden as soon as possible). I think the only way we extend Dlo now is if it's on a legitimately tradable contract (I'm talking 4/70)... since he won't agree to that, I think everyone on both sides knows that he's gone for the first decent offer (now, trade deadline, s&t next offseason). I'd urge some of you to think a little more long term before you say that you'd like him at 25-30/year. Also, in response to dopers comment, I get what you're saying and I agree that Dlo is good, but "good" players should be making 10-15/year, not 25-30/year.

[Coolbreeze44]

Jeez, you guys have the big guns out on this topic. Pretty entertaining thread with good points being made by everyone. One thing for sure, DLO is polarizing. My view of him is probably unfairly skewed by the fact I hated the trade that brought him here so much. A trade we clearly lost. Hek, I would trade DLO for Kuminga straight up right now, and Wig is one of the main reasons the Warriors are world champs. But I actually like DLO the teammate and agree he has a high basketball IQ. But to FNG's point, Wolves fans in general overrate his abilities and what he brings to the team. But most fans do that with their own players. Sounds like he's going to be here for at least the start of the season, so let's hope he has a great year and most importantly stays healthy.

[Lipoli390]

Jeez, you guys have the big guns out on this topic. Pretty entertaining thread with good points being made by everyone. One thing for sure, DLO is polarizing. My view of him is probably unfairly skewed by the fact I hated the trade that brought him here so much. A trade we clearly lost. Hek, I would trade DLO for Kuminga straight up right now, and Wig is one of the main reasons the Warriors are world champs. But I actually like DLO the teammate and agree he has a high basketball IQ. But to FNG's point, Wolves fans in general overrate his abilities and what he brings to the team. But most fans do that with their own players. Sounds like he's going to be here for at least the start of the season, so let's hope he has a great year and most importantly stays healthy.

I hear you, Cool. As you know, I disliked the trade and still do. I've tried hard to be objective about DLO. And I've also reconciled myself to the reality that he's going to be here for at least another season. I do see him potentially as a major positive for the Wolves with Gobert in the fold. But I also worry about his defensive shortcomings being exposed in the absence of Beverley. And I worry about his durability, which has always been problematic with him throughout his career. So FNG is right to be cautious in any assessments of DLO. I just have a good feeling about DLO this coming season.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

There's quite a bit of conjecture in this thread already as well as some repetitive narratives, but overall it's a good thread and I'm glad Lip initiated it because I've long thought that this board has underestimated D'Angelo Russell ever since his acquisition, for one reason or the other. He's a polarizing player, no doubt about it, but he's often talked about here as if he brings little to no value to this roster. That couldn't be further from the truth.

I can (and already have) provided various statistics that portray Russell as a positive contributor and above average performer in relation to the rest of the league, but rather than do so again at risk of tiring those that oppose my view, I'll end my comment with this more simplistic view.

The Timberwolves are significantly better with Russell than without him. Minnesota wins more with Russell than without him. And the Timberwolves' best players last year performed at a higher, more efficient level next to Russell than when he was off the floor. All of this points to Russell being a valuable piece to this puzzle.

I'm expecting a mini-breakout campaign or resurgence, if you will, for Russell this year as the roster better suits him now and the coaching staff will have little choice but to adhere to his strengths now that they align with Rudy Gobert's. Ideally, Russell and the organization will come to some sort of an agreement on an extension prior to the season because if they don't I feel that Russell will increase his market value before next summer where he'll be one of the more attractive options in free agency. He'll either sign with another team or cost more to retain in that scenario, and neither outcome is beneficial for the Timberwolves.