I love winning games. I've said repeatedly this season that winning is more important than tanking to keep the pick because of the odds of keeping the pick are relatively low and thankfully they've flattened those odds and mostly because we need to change our culture of losing. And it's long been an argument of mine that tanking in general is neither an ethical route to take, nor a particularly effective one, given the extent to which luck is involved with whether or not draft picks pan out. I've actually felt like this was a bit of a minority position on this board since Sam Hinkie basically set the mould for tanking.
HOWEVER, I have to say I'm honestly a
little uncomfortable with our winning right now.
First, because despite the thankfully flattened odds, I do think we've hurt our chances of getting this pick in a meaningful way. If we had ended up with the 3rd worst record, which we were basically on track to do, we'd have had a 40.1% chance of keeping the pick. At this point, with these wins and with Cleveland and OKC tanking now, it seems almost impossible that we will end up with the 4th or 5th worst record, and if we end up with the 6th worst record, we have a 29.4% chance of keeping the pick. We've been thinking of that as a 12.5% lower chance of keeping the pick, which is true; but it's also true to say that it's a 25% lower chance of keeping the pick than we'd have had if we had the 3rd worst record. Given that the Bulls and Raptors both have, at best, only one expected win on their remaining schedule, there is also a very outside chance we could fall to 7th. It's
highly unlikely to happen--we'd have to win 6 or 7 of our final 8 games--but if so, we'd end up with only a 19% chance of keeping our pick, which is less than half of what our chance would have been if we'd have ended up with the 3rd worst record.
Second, as much as I'd like to be, I'm not compelled by two arguments I've seen from two posters I respect a lot here, Q and kek, and by a third I'm not sure who to attribute to.
Q has said that we not only need to consider the odds of keeping the pick, but also the odds that a pick would pan out. And he's absolutely right that we should also consider those odds too. In fact, I've long argued that we tend to put too much stock into draft picks and assume they will all work out, when in fact a lot of them flame out. HOWEVER, in this case, we are talking about only a top 3 pick in a draft in which there are at least 3 guys who seem VERY likely to be excellent players. Cade looks almost certain to be at worst a good starter, versatile two-way wings like him are incredibly valuable, and I think he'd be a perfect fit for us. Frankly,
https://www.theringer.com/nba/2021/1/13/22226644/2021-nba-draft-evan-mobley-uscMobley would also be a great fit for us with his length and defense, and his upside is higher--he clearly has the touch and floor awareness that Wiseman never had. Green is redundant with Ant, but seriously, imagine if we had two guys like that! Plus, while he's much thinner, Green's shot looks better. One of those guys would be a very valuable trade asset. Or you could go with Suggs. What've we been missing for years? Toughness, defense, and leadership. Check, check, check. So Q is right that we need to consider not only the odds of getting the pick, but the odds that the pick works out, but I'd say the odds of all those guys working out is probably near 100%. I'm usually pretty skeptical of the value of picks, sometimes even toward the top of the draft. There IS much more uncertainty involved than we typically want to admit. But the very top picks are almost always more valuable, and this year's top picks look like sure things.
Kek has pointed out that winning games actually worsens Golden State's potential pick from us, because it pushes it later in the lottery. This is true. But I don't care about Golden State. I care about the Timberwolves. Why should I feel happy if another team gets a worse pick because my team lost its pick? That's like being happy the other guy's car was somewhat damaged in an accident that totaled my car.
I've also heard Lip and I think somebody else kind say, well, Rosas screwed up by giving away the pick in the first place, so what can you do? First, totally agree he shouldn't have given away the pick. But he did. It's done. Yet it does still have top 3 protection on it, so for now anyway, it's like a bet. And while we agree he shouldn't have made the bet, he did make it. And for the purpose of this analogy, it's our money. So if you were in Vegas, and you and your friends pooled their money, and one friend made a dumb bet with everybody's money, you'd be right to be angry with him--but would you want to say "fuck it, let those odds get longer?" No, you'd still really want him to win that bet! Winning games right now gives that bet longer odds. It's perverse, but at the end of the day, that's why a part of me has winced in pain at these wins.
Third, for two reasons, getting this pick this year would be vastly preferable to getting the pick next year. First, because of timing. Let's be honest, KAT is likely gone after the 2022-23 season if we don't start winning or looking like winning is on the horizon. A draft pick this year will help that happen more than a pick next year. I think there's a good chance Cade in particular, and maybe Suggs, could actually do that by impacting winning as rookies. Or, you could trade Ant and/or the guy we pick this year (I'd prefer to move Russell, but the value wouldn't be there) for a legit star who WOULD help us win. OR, honestly, a top pick this year would likely give us a foundational player to build around with Ant if we decided to move KAT after all--at the very least, a top 3 pick this year would be way more likely to be a foundational player than whoever we might pick next year. Which is essentially the second reason why keeping this pick is so important. This team had a terrible record this year partly due to injuries, partly because of coaching turnover, and partly because we relied heavily on an inefficient rookie. But now with the guys healthy, Edwards showing improvement, and Finch establishing some consistency, our record is looking up. We have every reason to think we will be a better team next year, maybe much better, and therefore our pick next year would likely be worse. All the more reason to increase our odds of keeping the pick this year.
Again, I said earlier this season that I wanted to win because wins were more important for fixing our culture. I hate tanking in general and have long criticized this franchise's tendency to soft tank, or even the flagrant bullshit with Madsen. The flattened odds mean the benefit of tanking this year is less than in the past.
BUT at this late point in the season, given these circumstances, especially these very good players at the top of this very good draft and with our franchise really at a fulcrum point in Towns' tenure, I think whether or not we get this pick might be the most important thing to happen to this franchise since we got Towns, or potentially, I hate to say it, since Kahn botched the 2009 draft. So to me, I honestly wish we'd have lost a couple of those last games, and I honestly hope we lose more and manage to end up with the 4th worst record (the odds between 5th and 6th are negligible). I hate to say it. I'm sorry. I feel like I need to go take a bath now. But I just think given the nature of our circumstances, it's worth it even with the flattened odds.
