We will finish out of the bottom 3

[Papalrep]

4th or 5th. Just enough to watch Suggs go to Golden State. Why? We are the Wolves.

[kekgeek]

I'll say it again. With the wolves winning last night the Wolves still have a 40.1% of keeping their pick. They also decreased the warriors odds of the 4th and 5th pick from 39.8% to 26.8%. The warriors might not even get Suggs at 4 or 5 but the Wolves have significantly decreased the warriors chances of getting the 4th or 5th pick this past month moving the warriors odds of getting the 4th or 5th pick from 59.9% to 26.8% so a 33.1% drop because of the Wolves "success" this last month

[AbeVigodaLive]

4th or 5th. Just enough to watch Suggs go to Golden State. Why? We are the Wolves.

It comes down to the value of 3.5%.

If the Wolves actually try to win games... they go from 40.1% chance of keeping the pick to 36.6% chance of keeping the pick. It could matter... but the odds are against it.

Likewise, actually trying to win games for once in a lost season could help instill a different tone for the players from previous seasons... that might help them moving forward. Likely? Probably not. But is there a 3.5% chance of it working?

[Papalrep]

I actually feel better, thanks. I will try and overcome my deeply ingrained pessimism.

[SameOldNudityDrew]

Here's a good chart that lays out the possibilities.

http://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

I've said I'd rather see us win games down the stretch, but I think it could hurt us more than 3.5%. I'm not sure where you got that number, Abe, but I suspect that's the difference between ending up with the 4th worst record as opposed to the 3rd worst record. Despite that latest win, OKC is tanking their balls off right now, and so are Orlando and Houston, so I actually figure at worst, we'll have the 4th worst record. But it also looks like the wheels are falling off in Cleveland and Detroit's schedule is no cakewalk. In that sense, we could also end up with the 5th or 6th worst record. If we end up with the 6th worst record, we'd have a 27.6% chance of keeping our pick, which is actually 12.5% worse than if we end up with one of the bottom three records in the league. That's not too much worse, but it's more than 3.5% worse.

All of this does make me glad the NBA flattened those odds out.

[FNG]

Here's a good chart that lays out the possibilities.

http://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds

I've said I'd rather see us win games down the stretch, but I think it could hurt us more than 3.5%. I'm not sure where you got that number, Abe, but I suspect that's the difference between ending up with the 4th worst record as opposed to the 3rd worst record. Despite that latest win, OKC is tanking their balls off right now, and so are Orlando and Houston, so I actually figure at worst, we'll have the 4th worst record. But it also looks like the wheels are falling off in Cleveland and Detroit's schedule is no cakewalk. In that sense, we could also end up with the 5th or 6th worst record. If we end up with the 6th worst record, we'd have a 27.6% chance of keeping our pick, which is actually 12.5% worse than if we end up with one of the bottom three records in the league. That's not too much worse, but it's more than 3.5% worse.

All of this does make me glad the NBA flattened those odds out.

Correct, Drew...Abe is looking at the difference between 3rd and 4th. But right now it looks more likely that the Wolves will finish 5th (31.6% chance of keeping our pick), or even pass Cleveland and finish 6th (27.6% chance of keeping our pick). If I were to predict right now based on the respective schedules, we will finish tied with Cleveland for 5th/6th...we split the season series with them, so I suspect a coin toss will determine which spot we finish in. But as others are saying, wins >ping pong balls. Keep winning to give us some hope for the future, and let the chips fall where they may with the lottery. Worst case? We still get a pick in a likely stacked 2022 draft.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

There are the odds of keeping the pick and then there are the odds of that pick turning into a legit plus player. Both are similar % so you pretty much have to take (at best) 40% multiplied by 40%. That equals 16%.

So tanking basically gives us a 16% chance of drafting someone that will eventually become a plus player. No thanks! Keep trying to win baby!

[Coolbreeze44]

Winning is the only thing for this franchise right now. The sin of the lost pick has already been committed. Let the chips fall where they may. Put A-Rod on camera at the draft lottery and see if the new ownership coming in can bring new luck.

[Lipoli390]

Winning is the only thing for this franchise right now. The sin of the lost pick has already been committed. Let the chips fall where they may. Put A-Rod on camera at the draft lottery and see if the new ownership coming in can bring new luck.

I was predicting a 5th or 6th place finish several weeks ago when it seemed insane to most. But that's what happening.

I was one of the few who wanted to tank for better lottery odds. But I have to admit it's great to see this team win. And I think you nailed it, Cool. The sin of the lost pick has already been committed and winning should be the primary focus going forward. The core of this team is set. Like it or not, it's DLO, KAT, Beasley, Ant and I believe McDaniels. They need to keep learning how to play and win together.

I'd like to see us finish 6th and then slide down another slot or two in the lottery, leaving Golden State with the 7th or 8th pick.

[Lipoli390]

The Wolves now have 20 wins after tonight's win over the Warriors and are in sole possession of the 4th worst record. The Thunder have 21 wins and look like they won't win another game this season as they remain in full tank mode. No question the Wolves will pass them in the standings. Note that the Cavs also have only 21 wins. I expect the Wolves to pass them in the standings as well, which will give the Wolves the 6th worst record. At this point, I'm all for the Wolves winning as many games as possible and finishing as high in the standings as they can this season. A strong finish can potentially carry over into next season. Moreover, the higher the Wolves finish in the standings, the lower the pick that goes to the Warriors. Perhaps the Wolves can even pass the Kings in the standings. The Kings currently have 25 wins and the Wolves have 8 games left.