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Re: The Wolves Salary Cap Problem

Posted: Wed May 10, 2023 10:09 am
by Sundog
I think it’s really important to get into detail about the Wolves’ salary cap situation and how it relates to how they put their roster together for next season. So thank you for the post, Lip. But I think it’s a mistake to get target lock on any particular way to mitigate those impacts. Trading Rudy or KAT this summer are a couple of paths they could take, and we’ve talked through those in (excruciating) detail. But Monster raises another path of clearing Prince, JMac and Knight which would provide enough headroom for the team to re-sign NAZ, extend NAW and still use most of the MLE — that would allow the team to (mostly) run it back next season and see if this two-big experiment could work or not.

Obviously there are pros and cons associated with each of these paths, but I just wanted to emphasize there isn’t just the one.

Re: The Wolves Salary Cap Problem

Posted: Wed May 10, 2023 11:25 pm
by Lipoli390
Sundog wrote: Wed May 10, 2023 10:09 am I think it’s really important to get into detail about the Wolves’ salary cap situation and how it relates to how they put their roster together for next season. So thank you for the post, Lip. But I think it’s a mistake to get target lock on any particular way to mitigate those impacts. Trading Rudy or KAT this summer are a couple of paths they could take, and we’ve talked through those in (excruciating) detail. But Monster raises another path of clearing Prince, JMac and Knight which would provide enough headroom for the team to re-sign NAZ, extend NAW and still use most of the MLE — that would allow the team to (mostly) run it back next season and see if this two-big experiment could work or not.

Obviously there are pros and cons associated with each of these paths, but I just wanted to emphasize there isn’t just the one.
I didn’t include Knight’s salary in my payroll calculation so there aren’t any savings there. I agree that Prince and JMac could be traded for slightly smaller salaries to eke out a little more room, but the matching requirements limit the additional salary room that sort of deal would provide. And I think Prince is an important part of this team. I think it would be difficult to replace Prince with someone who would be equally effective for less money and we don’t have a lot of quality depth on the roster beyond Slo Mo, Prince and Naz. Not saying it’s impossible; just difficult. So there are other options, but beyond Prince and JMac I don’t see any others unless TC trades Slo Mo, which I think would be a terrible mistake.

Re: The Wolves Salary Cap Problem

Posted: Wed May 10, 2023 11:35 pm
by Lipoli390
Monster wrote: Tue May 09, 2023 8:17 pm Naz isn’t gonna cost 15 million to resign and if that’s the price (or more) you walk away and sign a the best FAs you can with the money they have available. There will be some decent/intriguing big available for the vet min they could sign instead. That player MIGHT even fit the roster better even if they aren’t as good or intriguing as Naz.

Having said that if Naz costs something more like 10 million to start yeah they are gonna have to be careful especially if they want to sign a FA via the mid-level.

What are some other creative things the Wolves could do to open up space to make additions to the roster and stay under the cap?

Make a trade involving a player like Prince where they get back a cheaper player similar to what they did when they acquired him for Rubio. Not really expecting this to happen but it’s an option.

Knight has a non guaranteed contract. If he ends up being the last guy cut and his spot is taken by a rookie player either a 2nd round pick or an undrafted guy they would actually save a few hundred thousand bucks even with paying out his guaranteed money. It wouldn’t be much but might be just enough to keep them out of the tax or whatever. Depending on what other moves every little bit helps.

McLaughlin has no guaranteed money for next season. A younger player making the team instead would save them another couple hundred thousand or even a million.

I’m much more concerned about whether the Wolves can affect and identify the right talent to add to the roster this offseason. The Wolves had some really good moments last offseason and some less than stellar ones. Kyle Anderson was a heck of a signing and it’s hard not to be intrigued with Minott. Garza ended up being a pleasant surprise. Rivers was IMO worth a vet min contract. There were also some meh (resigning Knight) or not so good moves like trading for Rudy or drafting Moore Jr. I still believe in Moore but he hasn’t shown enough to be in the positive column. Spangnolo is sort of a flyer and incomplete. When it comes to in season moves the Conley Naw trade looks pretty good at this point. Let’s remember Connelly has been operating for a team that seemingly ABSOLUTELY would not go over the cap for years and he kept finding plenty of talent…honestly at times too much talent. Was that Connelly or was it guys around him? He certainly didn’t nail every pick or move either.
Even if they sign Naz for $10 million, it will likely cost $5 million to re-sign NAW. Those two signings would push the payroll over $157 million, which would not allow use of anything close to the full MLE without exceeding the luxury tax threshold. You’re right about having other options, but there’s no magic or even much creativity to this. Signing Naz and NAW while still having room under the luxury tax threshold to use the MLE will require the Wolves to trade current players under contract for players with lower salaries but still within the matching requirement. Doing that and bringing back players at least as good as the ones we trade will be really difficult and uncertain. Maybe will find out of TC is as good as Lore and A-Rod thought he was when they opened up the ownership vault to get him. :)

Re: The Wolves Salary Cap Problem

Posted: Thu May 11, 2023 7:35 am
by Sundog
Your points with regard to how hamstrung the Wolves have made themselves is really important and pretty maddening. And that’s under the existing CBA. I think we’re starting to hear inklings that things might get even more difficult under the new one.

Re: The Wolves Salary Cap Problem

Posted: Thu May 11, 2023 5:38 pm
by Monster
Lipoli390 wrote: Wed May 10, 2023 11:35 pm
Monster wrote: Tue May 09, 2023 8:17 pm Naz isn’t gonna cost 15 million to resign and if that’s the price (or more) you walk away and sign a the best FAs you can with the money they have available. There will be some decent/intriguing big available for the vet min they could sign instead. That player MIGHT even fit the roster better even if they aren’t as good or intriguing as Naz.

Having said that if Naz costs something more like 10 million to start yeah they are gonna have to be careful especially if they want to sign a FA via the mid-level.

What are some other creative things the Wolves could do to open up space to make additions to the roster and stay under the cap?

Make a trade involving a player like Prince where they get back a cheaper player similar to what they did when they acquired him for Rubio. Not really expecting this to happen but it’s an option.

Knight has a non guaranteed contract. If he ends up being the last guy cut and his spot is taken by a rookie player either a 2nd round pick or an undrafted guy they would actually save a few hundred thousand bucks even with paying out his guaranteed money. It wouldn’t be much but might be just enough to keep them out of the tax or whatever. Depending on what other moves every little bit helps.

McLaughlin has no guaranteed money for next season. A younger player making the team instead would save them another couple hundred thousand or even a million.

I’m much more concerned about whether the Wolves can affect and identify the right talent to add to the roster this offseason. The Wolves had some really good moments last offseason and some less than stellar ones. Kyle Anderson was a heck of a signing and it’s hard not to be intrigued with Minott. Garza ended up being a pleasant surprise. Rivers was IMO worth a vet min contract. There were also some meh (resigning Knight) or not so good moves like trading for Rudy or drafting Moore Jr. I still believe in Moore but he hasn’t shown enough to be in the positive column. Spangnolo is sort of a flyer and incomplete. When it comes to in season moves the Conley Naw trade looks pretty good at this point. Let’s remember Connelly has been operating for a team that seemingly ABSOLUTELY would not go over the cap for years and he kept finding plenty of talent…honestly at times too much talent. Was that Connelly or was it guys around him? He certainly didn’t nail every pick or move either.
Even if they sign Naz for $10 million, it will likely cost $5 million to re-sign NAW. Those two signings would push the payroll over $157 million, which would not allow use of anything close to the full MLE without exceeding the luxury tax threshold. You’re right about having other options, but there’s no magic or even much creativity to this. Signing Naz and NAW while still having room under the luxury tax threshold to use the MLE will require the Wolves to trade current players under contract for players with lower salaries but still within the matching requirement. Doing that and bringing back players at least as good as the ones we trade will be really difficult and uncertain. Maybe will find out of TC is as good as Lore and A-Rod thought he was when they opened up the ownership vault to get him. :)
Good points.

I’ll also add that trading a big ticket player isn’t exactly the magic bullet either. For a team that likely would want to add Gobert they probably are probably a team with some level of concern of their spending too so it’s possible the Wolves trade Gobert then end up with the same salary constraints you outlined plus more guys taking up roster space possibly at the expense of adding young talent that could turn into a more thrilling player. Would you like to find the next Naz Reid, Austin Rivers, Caruso etc? Better have enough roster spots.

I value Prince for this team pretty highly in fact probably more than you do. My idea of trading Prince wouldn’t be a salary dump it would be getting value back. The Wolves got Prince and 2nd round picks for Rubio. The Wolves MIGHT be able to get a worthwhile player and get some sort of value back in a deal while saving a couple million. Connelly already executed a somewhat similar trade a couple months ago when he moved Russell for Conley. I’ll also say this again as much as Conley was terrific for the Wolves after a few games…if the Wolves can find a way to move him to get better they should do it. I don’t think they are gonna be actively shopping him but I would not be shocked if he was moved in a trade this offseason where he represented value…again maybe similar to when Rubio was dealt.

The reality is that sometimes not being able to spend the mid-level can limit teams to signing guys that are essentially bargains or possible projects that have a chance to be important players. Bobby Portis is a somewhat recent example of a guy the Bucks signed initially for not a ton of money because of salary restraints and teams not being sure if Portis was worth much more than that. The Wolves might be able to sign a number of somewhat interesting players for cheap. We see it every year guys sign for little or next to nothing. What did the Lakers spend on Schroder this year? Vet Min and he has found his way back into being a pretty solid player a majority of games.

Again if what Connelly did in Denver was a representation of what he actually has as NBA executive he can make some moves sign players that can help the team. Some can argue whether everyone fits but the Wolves have some high ends talent on their roster. Usually that’s the hard part. Sometimes teams struggle to fill in the cracks. If the Wolves can upgrade the depth of the roster this offseason it could be a pretty big deal especially if the roster can stay relatively healthy.

Re: The Wolves Salary Cap Problem

Posted: Thu May 11, 2023 9:14 pm
by 60WinTim
Connelly said he really likes the starting 5. The team's needs beyond that are pretty damn clear, and they number 3:
  1. Edwards backup, with re-signing NAW the most obvious and likely action.
  2. Conley's backup, which will be a new face joining the roster. My money is on PatBev or Cory Joseph.
  3. A backup big to join SloMo behind KAT and Rudy, with Naz a possibility, but a FA just as likely.
Those are the impactful moves the team needs to make this year. A move on anyone else (JMac, Knight, Ryan and Garza) is just shuffling deck chairs, but might be needed to find a million or two complete those first 3 tasks. (Not sure if Minott is ready next year, but I doubt he gets shuffled...)

Re: The Wolves Salary Cap Problem

Posted: Tue May 16, 2023 10:58 am
by Lipoli390
Excerpt from a recent article. I didn’t realize that the penalties for exceeding the luxury tax will be even more onerous under the new collective bargaining agreement, which takes effect in the 2024-25 season: Here’s the excerpt:


There are severe penalties for teams that push up against the new “second apron” above the luxury tax line, per ESPN:

Unable to use a taxpayer mid-level exception
Unable to sign a player bought out of a contract north of the non-taxpayer mid-level exception (~$11 million or so),
Incoming salary matching exception is reduced from 125% to 110%
Cannot aggregate salaries to land a single player with more incoming money than outgoing money and cannot use cash in trades
Cannot trade a pick more than six drafts away
Increased financial per-dollar-over-the-tax penalties for repeater teams

The Wolves would be nearing this second apron in 2024-25 if they...

Re-sign Edwards to a maximum five-year, $207 million contract extension (which could get to $249 million for All-NBA, per ESPN) this summer (very likely). This would make the Wolves the only team in the league with three max players under contract for ‘24-25.
Re-sign McDaniels to some form of long-term extension (also likely) that will surely push $25-30 million per season
And hold onto the two bigs for $91,521,737 in 2024-25


I think the author understates the likelihood of the Wolves exceeding the second apron. The Wolves will be right around the luxury tax threshold next season if they simply re-sign Naz and NAW while keeping KAT, Rudy, Anderson and Prince. The new Ant and Jaden contracts beginning in 2024-25 will easily push the Wolves over the second apron if the Wolves keep KAT and Rudy. As the article points out, the Wolves would be the only team in the League with three max players on their roster (Ant, KAT and Rudy). Jaden’s contract will certainly be close to the max and could possible be a max deal. As I’ve mentioned before, keeping both KAT and Rudy isn’t sustainable for a lot of reasons - one of which is financial.

I don’t think it makes sense to spend another season indulging the KAT/Rudy experiment given the fact that one or the other will eventually need to be moved if this team is serious (as it should be) about building around Edwards and Jaden. It behooves the Wolves organization to set the long-term table sooner rather than later so the team can develop and establish an identity that makes sense long term for the now 21 year old Ant and 22 year old Jaden. Re-signing Naz makes perfect sense given his production, remaining upside, age and developmental trajectory. Re-signing NAW makes sense given his defense, potential and age. I’d re-sign Garza at a bargain price and continue developing Minott and Moore while keeping Anderson and Prince.

If trading KAT or Rudy this summer means taking a half step back next season then so be it, especially given the fact that we have our 2024 first round pick. If this team is going to have one more lottery season, next season would be the one.

We’ve had lots of debate and ideas about which one of our two bigs to trade. I would strongly prefer trading Rudy for a lot of reasons that I’ve repeated numerous times. But I think I can boil it down to age and fit. KAT’s age means he can still be at the top of his game when Ant and Jaden begin to hit their prime. KAT’s versatile offensive skill set can keep lanes open for Ant. Next season we need to play the style and with the players we expect to be playing in 2-3 years when Ant and Jaden begin to close in on their respective peaks. Unlike Rudy, KAT can fit that style and still be in his prime 2-3 years down the road. So he’s the guy to keep. There is no precedent in the modern NBA of a championship contender with a starting center like Gobert, much less a center like him with a supermax contract. It doesn’t make sense and this organization needs to move on from things that don’t make sense.

I understand and respect the arguments for trading KAT. The main case for trading KAT is that he can bring back substantial value in return. I think he’ll be more valuable next summer than this summer if he stays healthy next season, but he’d still bring a big return if traded this summer. If the Wolves go that route, then should also trade Rudy and completely retool around Ant, Jaden and Naz.

Bottom line is, in fact, all about the bottom line. This team can’t afford to keep both KAT and Rudy beyond next season, especially under the new CBA. In this instance, the organization should follow the advice of Thomas Jefferson who coined the phrase: “Never put off until tomorrow what you can do today.” Trading one or the other in inevitable. There’s no good reason to wait and lots of compelling reasons not to wait.

Re: The Wolves Salary Cap Problem

Posted: Tue May 16, 2023 11:21 am
by FNG
These discussions are interesting, but they all hinge on how much Lore/Arod want to win, and their appetite for paying an onerous lux tax. We just don't know. Lore has a reported net worth of $4 billion, so paying a luxury tax for him not going to be too painful. Arod's net worth though is reported to be "only" 1/10 of that ($400 million), and who knows how much of that is liquid. I imagine they would have to enter into some sort of arrangement where Lore covered ARod's portion of the tax in exchange for more ownership, but who knows.

We do know this...10 teams were over the luxury tax threshold last season, and they all made the playoffs. It's pretty clear to me that owners need to be willing to pony up if they want to be competitive. There are exceptions, of course, but not many. Those of us who believe in this roster have to hope that Marc Lore is willing to dig into his net worth to do what is necessary...if not, expect one of our bigs to be gone this summer with less than corresponding value coming back.

Re: The Wolves Salary Cap Problem

Posted: Tue May 16, 2023 7:51 pm
by Lipoli390
FNG wrote: Tue May 16, 2023 11:21 am These discussions are interesting, but they all hinge on how much Lore/Arod want to win, and their appetite for paying an onerous lux tax. We just don't know. Lore has a reported net worth of $4 billion, so paying a luxury tax for him not going to be too painful. Arod's net worth though is reported to be "only" 1/10 of that ($400 million), and who knows how much of that is liquid. I imagine they would have to enter into some sort of arrangement where Lore covered ARod's portion of the tax in exchange for more ownership, but who knows.

We do know this...10 teams were over the luxury tax threshold last season, and they all made the playoffs. It's pretty clear to me that owners need to be willing to pony up if they want to be competitive. There are exceptions, of course, but not many. Those of us who believe in this roster have to hope that Marc Lore is willing to dig into his net worth to do what is necessary...if not, expect one of our bigs to be gone this summer with less than corresponding value coming back.
The tax money isn’t the issue. The issue is the severe impact on transactional flexibility and the super expensive roster that isn’t designed to contend for a championship in today’s NBA with an aging supermax paint-centric center who doesn’t provide anything close to supermax value on the floor.

Re: The Wolves Salary Cap Problem

Posted: Tue May 16, 2023 10:01 pm
by Sundog
I think you might be right about all that, Lip… but you also might be wrong. I don’t think anyone knows what the team as currently constituted can accomplish. This team played very little together, starting with KAT missing training camp due to a throat illness, then injured for 52 games, then Naz hurt, then Jaden. I’d have liked to see the Wolves at full strength in the playoffs — I think they could have pushed the Nuggets pretty hard.

I’ll just leave it at you might be right, but you might not be :-) But the transactional difficulties under the next CBA are real … hopefully Gupta has a plan!