The Wolves Salary Cap Problem

[Lipoli390]

The Wolves have 10 players under contract for next season at a total payroll of $142,143,512. Not surprisingly that puts the Wolves well over next season’s salary cap, which is expected to be $134 million. So obviously, the Wolves won’t have cap room to sign a free agent but that’s what we all expected and it’s not a big problem. The problem is that the Wolves will be impossible realistically to stay under the expected $162 million luxury tax threshold next season if they want to re-sign Naz and still keep KAT and Rudy. Re-signing Naz will probably require paying him at least $15M next season. That would take the Wolves payroll up to $157,143,512 for 11 roster players. The Wolves could fill out the roster with three vet or rookie minimum contracts, but would not be able to use the full BAE exception or anything close to the full MLE and avoid the luxury tax. Moreover, if the Wolves want to retain NAW, it will likely cost at least $5M and that signing alone would push the Wolves payroll over the threshold to $162,143,512 with at least two more roster spots to fill.

Yes, the Wolves could choose to exceed the luxury tax threshold. But in my view, a team that barely finished over .500 should not be a luxury tax team. The following season the Wolves would be vaulted way over the threshold as KAT’s supermax kicks in, Rudy’s salary escalates and the Wolves extend Ant and Jaden. At that point, CBA rules would further constrain the Wolves transactional flexibility because the Wolves would be a serial luxury tax team. A serious injury to the 31/32 year old Rudy or further drop in his performance next season would make him untradeable. This financial reality is probably the main reason I think we should trade Rudy this summer even though I actually believe this team can be very good with him on the roster next season. Given his age and salary, he’s just not enough of a positive in my view to justify the further financial constraint his presence creates.

After seeing the numbers, I’m more convinced about the need to move Rudy this summer. And when I think of potential Gobert trades, I’m not thinking about getting a really good player in return or a ton of draft picks. I’m thinking about salary relief along with a rotation player and one or two future picks. This organization should be focused on becoming a legitimate contender in the 2024-25 season and use next season as a re-set season that has us contending for a playoff birth while building towards becoming a contender the season after when Ant and Jaden should be getting close to tapping their full potential with KAT still in his prime and Slo Mo still doing his thing. There’s no reason this team can’t be as good without Rudy next season as it was last season when it finished 10 games over .500 without Rudy when Ant and Jaden were only in their second season. Clearing Rudy’s salary from the books along with Conley’s expiring contract will give the Wolves some important financial flexibility to make moves before the KAT supermax and Edwards/Jaden new contracts kick in. Getting a couple future picks for Rudy would give us some more transactional flexibility as well.

Sorry about turning this post into a trade Rudy discussion. But I don’t see how this organization can realistically avoid the luxury tax threshold next season and still keep Rudy unless the team lets Naz walk. So in my mind, either Rudy or Naz will need to go. Yes, as discussed in other threads, moving on from KAT would be another way but I think it’s much easier to replace what Rudy provides than what KAT provides and KAT’s age and skill set project better down the road as a fit with Ant and Jaden.

[AbeVigodaLive]

LOL.

[Lipoli390]

LOL.

You’re laughing, but are you also crying inside?

[Wolvesfan21]

Trade KAT and get lesser contracts back plus his contract is much smaller this year. The time is right now to maximize KAT's value and keep our cap down. Resign Naz, he's basically a poor mans KAT. Great offense and bad defense. But he's younger and could continue to improve. KAT is who is is as a Wolf.

Heck trade Rudy too if you can get a good deal, but I doubt it considering his subpar season, injuries and punching of teammates, etc..

[AbeVigodaLive]

LOL.

You’re laughing, but are you also crying inside?

I had my tear ducts removed during the Kahn regime...

[WildWolf2813]

If the salary cap was gonna be a concern in regards to the luxury, more reason why the Rudy trade shoulda been rejected at the top.

When you acquire a Gobert, you're implying that money isn't gonna be an obstacle. If they didn't consider those things, then Connelly, Lore and A-Rod walked into this situation incredibly blind and oblivious to everything.

[Lipoli390]

Trade KAT and get lesser contracts back plus his contract is much smaller this year. The time is right now to maximize KAT's value and keep our cap down. Resign Naz, he's basically a poor mans KAT. Great offense and bad defense. But he's younger and could continue to improve. KAT is who is is as a Wolf.

Heck trade Rudy too if you can get a good deal, but I doubt it considering his subpar season, injuries and punching of teammates, etc..

While that’s not what I would do, trading KAT now is a legitimate alternative. I just don’t think the KAT/Rudy duo is sustainable over time given the cost and what it’s likely to produce. Trading KAT would obviously bring back a lot more than trading Rudy. I guess it’s hard to know what the best move is in the abstract without knowing exactly who and what we’d get back in return. This current front office regime has put the franchise in a precarious position.

[Wolvesfan21]

Trade KAT and get lesser contracts back plus his contract is much smaller this year. The time is right now to maximize KAT's value and keep our cap down. Resign Naz, he's basically a poor mans KAT. Great offense and bad defense. But he's younger and could continue to improve. KAT is who is is as a Wolf.

Heck trade Rudy too if you can get a good deal, but I doubt it considering his subpar season, injuries and punching of teammates, etc..

While that’s not what I would do, trading KAT now is a legitimate alternative. I just don’t think the KAT/Rudy duo is sustainable over time given the cost and what it’s likely to produce. Trading KAT would obviously bring back a lot more than trading Rudy. I guess it’s hard to know what the best move is in the abstract without knowing exactly who and what we’d get back in return. This current front office regime has put the franchise in a precarious position.

I really think that TC's backup plan was and still is to look to trade KAT if things didn't work out well (the so called twin towers experiment). He may still wait a year though. I just don't see acquiring a guy then selling him for 10 cents on the dollar a year later. He would get roasted in the media just for doing that and even more if the returning asset didn't work out and made the team worse.

It is just super risky to buy high and sell low on a guy for his professional reputation. I think their is close to zero percent chance Rudy gets traded because of it. I think TC would need to leave for it to happen really.

[Lipoli390]

Trade KAT and get lesser contracts back plus his contract is much smaller this year. The time is right now to maximize KAT's value and keep our cap down. Resign Naz, he's basically a poor mans KAT. Great offense and bad defense. But he's younger and could continue to improve. KAT is who is is as a Wolf.

Heck trade Rudy too if you can get a good deal, but I doubt it considering his subpar season, injuries and punching of teammates, etc..

While that’s not what I would do, trading KAT now is a legitimate alternative. I just don’t think the KAT/Rudy duo is sustainable over time given the cost and what it’s likely to produce. Trading KAT would obviously bring back a lot more than trading Rudy. I guess it’s hard to know what the best move is in the abstract without knowing exactly who and what we’d get back in return. This current front office regime has put the franchise in a precarious position.

I really think that TC's backup plan was and still is to look to trade KAT if things didn't work out well (the so called twin towers experiment). He may still wait a year though. I just don't see acquiring a guy then selling him for 10 cents on the dollar a year later. He would get roasted in the media just for doing that and even more if the returning asset didn't work out and made the team worse.

It is just super risky to buy high and sell low on a guy for his professional reputation. I think their is close to zero percent chance Rudy gets traded because of it. I think TC would need to leave for it to happen really.

Those are good points. I’ll join you in predicting that TC won’t trade Rudy this summer. But I don’t think he’ll trade KAT either. I honestly don’t think TC had a backup plan. I think he deluded himself into being absolutely convinced this deal would work and that explains him giving up so much to get him. If the team ends up with a first round playoff exit next season, I think TC will be replaced and then Rudy will be traded.

But I’ll offer an alternative scenario that I don’t consider likely but still plausible. I can see TC willing to trade Rudy this summer and take the short-term media heat as part of a longer term strategy to dig out of the hole he dug. Trading Rudy for more financial flexibility and some good assets, even if far short of what he gave up, could be the best long-term strategy for TC if he’s truly invested in trying to make things work here over the entire span of his contract. Again, I don’t think it’s likely, but I wouldn’t be surprised. It’s a common strategy among executives. You cut your losses. I’ve had clients who made bad business acquisitions and then sold those businesses relatively quickly before they became worthless. I’ve always had clients who hung on far too long as a bad acquisition became worse and devalued over time. Selling for multiple pennies on the dollar can make sense if waiting will cost you more than the dollars you spent and leave you with an asset that won’t even get you more than one cent.

[Monster]

Naz isn’t gonna cost 15 million to resign and if that’s the price (or more) you walk away and sign a the best FAs you can with the money they have available. There will be some decent/intriguing big available for the vet min they could sign instead. That player MIGHT even fit the roster better even if they aren’t as good or intriguing as Naz.

Having said that if Naz costs something more like 10 million to start yeah they are gonna have to be careful especially if they want to sign a FA via the mid-level.

What are some other creative things the Wolves could do to open up space to make additions to the roster and stay under the cap?

Make a trade involving a player like Prince where they get back a cheaper player similar to what they did when they acquired him for Rubio. Not really expecting this to happen but it’s an option.

Knight has a non guaranteed contract. If he ends up being the last guy cut and his spot is taken by a rookie player either a 2nd round pick or an undrafted guy they would actually save a few hundred thousand bucks even with paying out his guaranteed money. It wouldn’t be much but might be just enough to keep them out of the tax or whatever. Depending on what other moves every little bit helps.

McLaughlin has no guaranteed money for next season. A younger player making the team instead would save them another couple hundred thousand or even a million.

I’m much more concerned about whether the Wolves can affect and identify the right talent to add to the roster this offseason. The Wolves had some really good moments last offseason and some less than stellar ones. Kyle Anderson was a heck of a signing and it’s hard not to be intrigued with Minott. Garza ended up being a pleasant surprise. Rivers was IMO worth a vet min contract. There were also some meh (resigning Knight) or not so good moves like trading for Rudy or drafting Moore Jr. I still believe in Moore but he hasn’t shown enough to be in the positive column. Spangnolo is sort of a flyer and incomplete. When it comes to in season moves the Conley Naw trade looks pretty good at this point. Let’s remember Connelly has been operating for a team that seemingly ABSOLUTELY would not go over the cap for years and he kept finding plenty of talent…honestly at times too much talent. Was that Connelly or was it guys around him? He certainly didn’t nail every pick or move either.