Detroit Pick Watch

[Monster]

There seems to be some misunderstanding of our Apron status going forward...

As we all know, the Wolves are a 2nd Apron team this season, along with all it's restrictions. But as soon as the 2025-26 financial year kicks in (July 1st?), the Wolves will no longer be a 2nd Apron team. Heck, they will even be under the 1st Apron by roughly 3 mil! This assumes both Randle and NAZ opt in on their player option. If NAZ opts out, the Wolves will be 18 mil under the 1st apron, and 30 mil under the 2nd apron!

This means the Wolves could re-sign NAZ at 25 mil and still be 5 mil under the 2nd apron.

I don’t think your numbers are correct, Tim. Here’s the situation:

Projected salary thresholds for next season are (1) $154.6M salary cap; (2) 187.9M luxury tax; (3) $195.9 1st apron; and (4) $207.8M 2nd apron. These are maximums increases under the CBA (10% higher than this season) and could be less.

Assuming Julius ops in and we pick up Garza’s $2.6 million option, our total payroll will be right around $175 million for a roster of 12 players without Naz. Assuming we sign Naz for around $30 million, that would put our payroll at $205 million, which would put us only $2.8 million below the 2nd apron without NAW and with two roster spots to fill to get to 14. I believe that each vet minimum contract will count $2.08 million against the salary cap. That means would not be able to get our roster to 14 and get under the 2nd apron even if we simply signed players to vet minimum deals.

Hopefully we’ll be able to sign Naz for closer to $25 million, in which case (with Randle) we’d end up with a total payroll of around $200 million for 12 players without NAW. We’d stay barely under the 2nd apron (assuming the threshold increases by the maximum 10% allowed) but we’d still be over the 1st apron even before adding two more players to fill out the roster. And again, all this assumes optimistically that the cap increases by the max 10% and Naz can be retained for no more than around $25 million.

I don't know, Lip. My numbers seem to align perfectly with your numbers...

I don't see NAZ commanding 30 mil on next year's FA market. I am not sure he'll even get Jaden-type money, which is 25 mil. I suspect he will re-sign for something closer to the 20 mil range.

And on the 10% increase... I believe the new TV deals are signed beginning for the 2025-26 season, and insures the cap will increase by 10% for several years. It would have increased by a lot more this year, but the CBA puts a 10% cap on the increase.

Also, I read that "minimum roster" spots for the purposes of calculating salaries for the aprons in the offseason is set at only 12 spots, not 14.

Interesting I would be curious to read that. It seems to me it's about the full salalry of the team.

If it is the full combined salalries it also worth noting that the Wolves could in theory sign a rookie or even 2 rookies to fill out the roster and those guys are cheaper than the 2 million that Lip stated by over 800k each which could end up helping them either get below or close enlugh they could more easily do so with another move.

[60WinTim]

I don’t think your numbers are correct, Tim. Here’s the situation:

Projected salary thresholds for next season are (1) $154.6M salary cap; (2) 187.9M luxury tax; (3) $195.9 1st apron; and (4) $207.8M 2nd apron. These are maximums increases under the CBA (10% higher than this season) and could be less.

Assuming Julius ops in and we pick up Garza’s $2.6 million option, our total payroll will be right around $175 million for a roster of 12 players without Naz. Assuming we sign Naz for around $30 million, that would put our payroll at $205 million, which would put us only $2.8 million below the 2nd apron without NAW and with two roster spots to fill to get to 14. I believe that each vet minimum contract will count $2.08 million against the salary cap. That means would not be able to get our roster to 14 and get under the 2nd apron even if we simply signed players to vet minimum deals.

Hopefully we’ll be able to sign Naz for closer to $25 million, in which case (with Randle) we’d end up with a total payroll of around $200 million for 12 players without NAW. We’d stay barely under the 2nd apron (assuming the threshold increases by the maximum 10% allowed) but we’d still be over the 1st apron even before adding two more players to fill out the roster. And again, all this assumes optimistically that the cap increases by the max 10% and Naz can be retained for no more than around $25 million.

I don't know, Lip. My numbers seem to align perfectly with your numbers...

I don't see NAZ commanding 30 mil on next year's FA market. I am not sure he'll even get Jaden-type money, which is 25 mil. I suspect he will re-sign for something closer to the 20 mil range.

And on the 10% increase... I believe the new TV deals are signed beginning for the 2025-26 season, and insures the cap will increase by 10% for several years. It would have increased by a lot more this year, but the CBA puts a 10% cap on the increase.

Also, I read that "minimum roster" spots for the purposes of calculating salaries for the aprons in the offseason is set at only 12 spots, not 14.

Interesting I would be curious to read that. It seems to me it's about the full salalry of the team.

If it is the full combined salalries it also worth noting that the Wolves could in theory sign a rookie or even 2 rookies to fill out the roster and those guys are cheaper than the 2 million that Lip stated by over 800k each which could end up helping them either get below or close enlugh they could more easily do so with another move.

Question #13 in the CBA FAQ. It's a long section, with the answer about halfway down. And checkout footnote 7, too.

http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q13

[Q-is-here]

I'm not sure what I really want to happen with that Detroit pick, so I appreciate all the discussion here. The FNG who needs instant gratification wants the pick to confer as soon as possible...especially in this stacked draft. But then I think about how difficult it is to fit new young players into a rotation, and we already aren't giving many minutes to Garza, Shannon, Clark, Minott, Miller and until recently, Rob. Does TC really want to add a mid-teens firster plus an early seconder to that mix? Maybe better to wait a year? I don't know...I think I'll continue to cheer for the Pistons and let TC and finchie figure out what to do with in influx of young guys.

(In any event, how lucky are we that we don't have all those picks we gave up for Rudy? TC already has too much to work with...what would he do with a few more! )

Well, there is such a thing as too many picks as evidenced by what Utah apparently just did.

Yeah, it is sort of funny that after all the hand-wringing over what we gave up for Rudy, we sit here today with young prospects buried on the bench - a couple of whom have legit high upside - AND potentially two more draft picks coming this summer.

[Lipoli390]

There seems to be some misunderstanding of our Apron status going forward...

As we all know, the Wolves are a 2nd Apron team this season, along with all it's restrictions. But as soon as the 2025-26 financial year kicks in (July 1st?), the Wolves will no longer be a 2nd Apron team. Heck, they will even be under the 1st Apron by roughly 3 mil! This assumes both Randle and NAZ opt in on their player option. If NAZ opts out, the Wolves will be 18 mil under the 1st apron, and 30 mil under the 2nd apron!

This means the Wolves could re-sign NAZ at 25 mil and still be 5 mil under the 2nd apron.

I don’t think your numbers are correct, Tim. Here’s the situation:

Projected salary thresholds for next season are (1) $154.6M salary cap; (2) 187.9M luxury tax; (3) $195.9 1st apron; and (4) $207.8M 2nd apron. These are maximums increases under the CBA (10% higher than this season) and could be less.

Assuming Julius ops in and we pick up Garza’s $2.6 million option, our total payroll will be right around $175 million for a roster of 12 players without Naz. Assuming we sign Naz for around $30 million, that would put our payroll at $205 million, which would put us only $2.8 million below the 2nd apron without NAW and with two roster spots to fill to get to 14. I believe that each vet minimum contract will count $2.08 million against the salary cap. That means would not be able to get our roster to 14 and get under the 2nd apron even if we simply signed players to vet minimum deals.

Hopefully we’ll be able to sign Naz for closer to $25 million, in which case (with Randle) we’d end up with a total payroll of around $200 million for 12 players without NAW. We’d stay barely under the 2nd apron (assuming the threshold increases by the maximum 10% allowed) but we’d still be over the 1st apron even before adding two more players to fill out the roster. And again, all this assumes optimistically that the cap increases by the max 10% and Naz can be retained for no more than around $25 million.

I don't know, Lip. My numbers seem to align perfectly with your numbers...

I don't see NAZ commanding 30 mil on next year's FA market. I am not sure he'll even get Jaden-type money, which is 25 mil. I suspect he will re-sign for something closer to the 20 mil range.

And on the 10% increase... I believe the new TV deals are signed beginning for the 2025-26 season, and insures the cap will increase by 10% for several years. It would have increased by a lot more this year, but the CBA puts a 10% cap on the increase.

Also, I read that "minimum roster" spots for the purposes of calculating salaries for the aprons in the offseason is set at only 12 spots, not 14.

“Teams are obligated to carry a minimum of 14 players during the course of the regular season, although they are permitted to drop to 13 players for up to two weeks. Of those 14 players, 12 must be considered Active Players, the remainder of whom would be Inactive Players.”

We could fill out the roster with rookie free agents for less than an experienced vet minimum, but that won’t make a material difference because the Wolves would still be over the 1st apron with 12 players if Randle opts in, the Wolves pick up Garza’s option and the Wolves re-sign Naz at a starting salary of anything over $21 million. And that’s without NAW.

So yes, the Wolves can probably keep Naz and get under the second apron if Randle opts in, assuming we can re-sign Naz for no more than around $25 million. But we can’t realistically get under the 1st apron if Randle opts in unless Naz is willing to accept a contract that pays no more than around $20 million next season. I think there will be multiple teams that offer more than that. Some possibilities include Brooklyn, Detroit, and Charlotte. There could be others and in any event it only takes one. And if Randle returns, the Wolves organization would have to promise Naz that he’ll be the team’s starting PF ahead of Randle. I’m not sure this organization is willing to do that and even if they do I don’t see Naz staying here for $20 million if he can get $25 million somewhere else.

All this talk about signing Naz and getting below the 1st apron if Randle opts in is pie in the sky. We’ll have a hard enough time keeping Naz and getting under the 2nd apron if Randle opts in. That’s the reality. Failing to trade Randle by the deadline would carry unwarranted risk. The risk is unwarranted because it’s crystal clear Randle doesn’t fit here unless perhaps the organization trades Rudy. Keeping Randle as a backup PF at $30 million next season and risking the loss of Naz in the process strikes me as really bad management.

[Monster]

I don't know, Lip. My numbers seem to align perfectly with your numbers...

I don't see NAZ commanding 30 mil on next year's FA market. I am not sure he'll even get Jaden-type money, which is 25 mil. I suspect he will re-sign for something closer to the 20 mil range.

And on the 10% increase... I believe the new TV deals are signed beginning for the 2025-26 season, and insures the cap will increase by 10% for several years. It would have increased by a lot more this year, but the CBA puts a 10% cap on the increase.

Also, I read that "minimum roster" spots for the purposes of calculating salaries for the aprons in the offseason is set at only 12 spots, not 14.

Interesting I would be curious to read that. It seems to me it's about the full salalry of the team.

If it is the full combined salalries it also worth noting that the Wolves could in theory sign a rookie or even 2 rookies to fill out the roster and those guys are cheaper than the 2 million that Lip stated by over 800k each which could end up helping them either get below or close enlugh they could more easily do so with another move.

Question #13 in the CBA FAQ. It's a long section, with the answer about halfway down. And checkout footnote 7, too.

http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q13

Tim unfortunately I'm not sure that FAQ is updated with the new CBA. If you are looking for some thrilling reading I believe the players association has the entire contract to peruse through.

[Monster]

I'm not sure what I really want to happen with that Detroit pick, so I appreciate all the discussion here. The FNG who needs instant gratification wants the pick to confer as soon as possible...especially in this stacked draft. But then I think about how difficult it is to fit new young players into a rotation, and we already aren't giving many minutes to Garza, Shannon, Clark, Minott, Miller and until recently, Rob. Does TC really want to add a mid-teens firster plus an early seconder to that mix? Maybe better to wait a year? I don't know...I think I'll continue to cheer for the Pistons and let TC and finchie figure out what to do with in influx of young guys.

(In any event, how lucky are we that we don't have all those picks we gave up for Rudy? TC already has too much to work with...what would he do with a few more! )

Well, there is such a thing as too many picks as evidenced by what Utah apparently just did.

Yeah, it is sort of funny that after all the hand-wringing over what we gave up for Rudy, we sit here today with young prospects buried on the bench - a couple of whom have legit high upside - AND potentially two more draft picks coming this summer.

After learning more about the picks I can see more of the possible value in what the Suns did. The picks are all the worst of the Wolves and the Cavs picks for a chance that the Suns are terrible in a few years. It seems likely that either the Cavs or Wolves are gonna be pretty good teams for a while. Let's put it this way. Would you give up like 5 or 6 2nds to get the Suns 2031 pick? I probably would. That's possibly about what the Jazz did here plus as Q noted they push back those picks since they have a bunch of them...probaly too many. Again it's still a bit surprising to me that the Wolves possibly gave up just a future unprotected first to get the pick to select Dillingham.

[rapsuperstar31]

After a convincing win against Atlanta, Detroit is now sitting in 6th place 7 games ahead of Philadelphia in the 11th seed.

[Phenom]

I'm not sure what I really want to happen with that Detroit pick, so I appreciate all the discussion here. The FNG who needs instant gratification wants the pick to confer as soon as possible...especially in this stacked draft. But then I think about how difficult it is to fit new young players into a rotation, and we already aren't giving many minutes to Garza, Shannon, Clark, Minott, Miller and until recently, Rob. Does TC really want to add a mid-teens firster plus an early seconder to that mix? Maybe better to wait a year? I don't know...I think I'll continue to cheer for the Pistons and let TC and finchie figure out what to do with in influx of young guys.

(In any event, how lucky are we that we don't have all those picks we gave up for Rudy? TC already has too much to work with...what would he do with a few more! )

Well, there is such a thing as too many picks as evidenced by what Utah apparently just did.

Yeah, it is sort of funny that after all the hand-wringing over what we gave up for Rudy, we sit here today with young prospects buried on the bench - a couple of whom have legit high upside - AND potentially two more draft picks coming this summer.

After learning more about the picks I can see more of the possible value in what the Suns did. The picks are all the worst of the Wolves and the Cavs picks for a chance that the Suns are terrible in a few years. It seems likely that either the Cavs or Wolves are gonna be pretty good teams for a while. Let's put it this way. Would you give up like 5 or 6 2nds to get the Suns 2031 pick? I probably would. That's possibly about what the Jazz did here plus as Q noted they push back those picks since they have a bunch of them...probaly too many. Again it's still a bit surprising to me that the Wolves possibly gave up just a future unprotected first to get the pick to select Dillingham.

The value for the Suns is the ability to trade their own picks in the even years now. The 3 picks they got are in the odd years and allows them to satisfy the Stepien rule. Every team that tries to get in on the Butler deal should want the Suns pick in, say, 2028 vs the picks they just acquired. That could be a sweet pick.

[Lipoli390]

Well, there is such a thing as too many picks as evidenced by what Utah apparently just did.

Yeah, it is sort of funny that after all the hand-wringing over what we gave up for Rudy, we sit here today with young prospects buried on the bench - a couple of whom have legit high upside - AND potentially two more draft picks coming this summer.

After learning more about the picks I can see more of the possible value in what the Suns did. The picks are all the worst of the Wolves and the Cavs picks for a chance that the Suns are terrible in a few years. It seems likely that either the Cavs or Wolves are gonna be pretty good teams for a while. Let's put it this way. Would you give up like 5 or 6 2nds to get the Suns 2031 pick? I probably would. That's possibly about what the Jazz did here plus as Q noted they push back those picks since they have a bunch of them...probaly too many. Again it's still a bit surprising to me that the Wolves possibly gave up just a future unprotected first to get the pick to select Dillingham.

The value for the Suns is the ability to trade their own picks in the even years now. The 3 picks they got are in the odd years and allows them to satisfy the Stepien rule. Every team that tries to get in on the Butler deal should want the Suns pick in, say, 2028 vs the picks they just acquired. That could be a sweet pick.

Yes. Or the Suns can trade the picks they just acquired. More fundamentally, this deal allows the Suns to trade future picks. The deal was clearly designed to better position the Suns for a deal to acquire Butler. Miami won’t take Beal, which means the Suns will need to find another team willing to take Beal and give up a player the Heat would find acceptable. To find a taker for Beal will likely require the Suns to offer some future picks and the Suns now have the ability to do that.

[Lipoli390]

Detroit could still falter and fade back to lottery status. But so far so good. If the Wolves end up getting Detroit’s pick this year, it’s looking like it will be in the 14 to 20 range. If had to guess, I’d say it will be pick #15.