Detroit Pick Watch

[Lipoli390]

Since there’s been a lot of discussion about the Detroit pick we go from the Knicks in various trade scenario discussions, I thought it was worth devoting an entire threat to this pick. As we know, it’s top 13 protected this year, top 11 protected next year and top 9 protected the next year (2027) after which it converts to a 2nd round pick if not conveyed.

If the season ended today, Detroit’s pick would be #12 unless they miraculously dropped two spots in the lottery draw. With Ivey out and considering the teams with better records right now, I’d say the chances of getting Detroit’s pick this year are slim. But I like our chances of getting Detroit’s first round pick next year or the year after. Cunningham looks like he’s becoming the player Detroit and others expected him to be when he was the first overall pick in the 2021 draft. Before his recent injury, Ivey was also looking like he would become an allstar player. His injury is serious, but it’s the sort of injury that shouldn’t affect him once he’s back next season. Duran looks like he’s going to be really good as well. So the Pistons should continue getting better over the next couple seasons and that bodes well for the Wolves prospect of getting a first round pick out of the KAT deal.

As discussed, I’d be very reluctant to deal that pick now simply to entice another team to take Randle for sake of reducing our payroll.

[FNG]

Good idea for a thread, Lip. I agree with both points: more likely the pick conveys next season, and dont include it in a Ju trade in an attempt to keep NAW.

[Lipoli390]

If the season ended today, the Wolves would get the Detroit pick, which would be the 14th, 15th or 16th pick. The Wolves would also get the 33rd pick via Utah.

[Q-is-here]

If the season ended today, the Wolves would get the Detroit pick, which would be the 14th, 15th or 16th pick. The Wolves would also get the 33rd pick via Utah.

Given all the picks traded away for Rudy, you would think the number of guys in our rookie contract pipeline would be really thin. It turns out we need to start making room for some of these guys! Likewise, a 2025 mid first rounder should probably compete for a 9th or 10th man in the rotation, right?

Just assume for a second we literally bring every non-2-way player back next season that have team or player options (just pretend for now):

Bigs - Rudy, Randle, Naz, Garza, Miller
Wings - Ant, Jaden, Minott, Shannon Jr.
Guards - Conley, DDV, NAW, Dillingham
2025 Draft - Detroit's 1st rounder, Utah's 2nd rounder

I highlighted the players/picks that probably deserve playing time next season if they are on the roster and not otherwise traded. Look at where they fall in the current hierarchy!

Now here is a snapshot of the roster if we were to lose Randle, NAW, and not pick up the team options on Garza and Minott.

Bigs - Rudy, Naz, Miller
Wings - Ant, Jaden, Shannon Jr.
Guards - DDV, Dillingham, Conley

That's a 9-man rotation even before we add in the Detroit 1st rounder and any players we might get back under contract from an MLE or Rudy/NAW trades!

[Lipoli390]

If the season ended today, the Wolves would get the Detroit pick, which would be the 14th, 15th or 16th pick. The Wolves would also get the 33rd pick via Utah.

Given all the picks traded away for Rudy, you would think the number of guys in our rookie contract pipeline would be really thin. It turns out we need to start making room for some of these guys! Likewise, a 2025 mid first rounder should probably compete for a 9th or 10th man in the rotation, right?

Just assume for a second we literally bring every non-2-way player back next season that have team or player options (just pretend for now):

Bigs - Rudy, Randle, Naz, Garza, Miller
Wings - Ant, Jaden, Minott, Shannon Jr.
Guards - Conley, DDV, NAW, Dillingham
2025 Draft - Detroit's 1st rounder, Utah's 2nd rounder

I highlighted the players/picks that probably deserve playing time next season if they are on the roster and not otherwise traded. Look at where they fall in the current hierarchy!

Now here is a snapshot of the roster if we were to lose Randle, NAW, and not pick up the team options on Garza and Minott.

Bigs - Rudy, Naz, Miller
Wings - Ant, Jaden, Shannon Jr.
Guards - DDV, Dillingham, Conley

That's a 9-man rotation even before we add in the Detroit 1st rounder and any players we might get back under contract from an MLE or Rudy/NAW trades!

Great post, Q. I was thinking along the same lines. I’d actually prefer to get Detroit’s pick in 2027 when we don’t have any first or second round picks. On the other hand, Detroit’s pick this year (14-16) will probably be higher than their 2026 or 2027 pick. Bottom line though is that we’ll probably need to make some moves to provide the young guys with an opportunity ample playing time. As I envision things, Randle and NAW should be gone. I could see packaging the Utah and Detroit picks to move into the top 10. At some point, we’ll have to move Minott or Miller. I’d like to get below the 2nd apron so we can aggregate outgoing players. It will be interesting to see what TC does.

[rapsuperstar31]

If the season ended today, the Wolves would get the Detroit pick, which would be the 14th, 15th or 16th pick. The Wolves would also get the 33rd pick via Utah.

Given all the picks traded away for Rudy, you would think the number of guys in our rookie contract pipeline would be really thin. It turns out we need to start making room for some of these guys! Likewise, a 2025 mid first rounder should probably compete for a 9th or 10th man in the rotation, right?

Just assume for a second we literally bring every non-2-way player back next season that have team or player options (just pretend for now):

Bigs - Rudy, Randle, Naz, Garza, Miller
Wings - Ant, Jaden, Minott, Shannon Jr.
Guards - Conley, DDV, NAW, Dillingham
2025 Draft - Detroit's 1st rounder, Utah's 2nd rounder

I highlighted the players/picks that probably deserve playing time next season if they are on the roster and not otherwise traded. Look at where they fall in the current hierarchy!

Now here is a snapshot of the roster if we were to lose Randle, NAW, and not pick up the team options on Garza and Minott.

Bigs - Rudy, Naz, Miller
Wings - Ant, Jaden, Shannon Jr.
Guards - DDV, Dillingham, Conley

That's a 9-man rotation even before we add in the Detroit 1st rounder and any players we might get back under contract from an MLE or Rudy/NAW trades!

Great post, Q. I was thinking along the same lines. I’d actually prefer to get Detroit’s pick in 2027 when we don’t have any first or second round picks. On the other hand, Detroit’s pick this year (14-16) will probably be higher than their 2026 or 2027 pick. Bottom line though is that we’ll probably need to make some moves to provide the young guys with an opportunity ample playing time. As I envision things, Randle and NAW should be gone. I could see packaging the Utah and Detroit picks to move into the top 10. At some point, we’ll have to move Minott or Miller. I’d like to get below the 2nd apron so we can aggregate outgoing players. It will be interesting to see what TC does.

If the Detroit pick conveys this year, we can always trade it to Utah to get our 2027th pick back. But this year and next years draft are supposed to be great drafts filled with talent, so we may want to use it. We'll have to see where everything finishes, but I wouldn't be opposed to going in any direction with the pick if we get it. Keeping both picks and drafting two players, using both to trade up, using both and one of our young guys to trade up further.

[60WinTim]

There seems to be some misunderstanding of our Apron status going forward...

As we all know, the Wolves are a 2nd Apron team this season, along with all it's restrictions. But as soon as the 2025-26 financial year kicks in (July 1st?), the Wolves will no longer be a 2nd Apron team. Heck, they will even be under the 1st Apron by roughly 3 mil! This assumes both Randle and NAZ opt in on their player option. If NAZ opts out, the Wolves will be 18 mil under the 1st apron, and 30 mil under the 2nd apron!

This means the Wolves could re-sign NAZ at 25 mil and still be 5 mil under the 2nd apron.

[Lipoli390]

There seems to be some misunderstanding of our Apron status going forward...

As we all know, the Wolves are a 2nd Apron team this season, along with all it's restrictions. But as soon as the 2025-26 financial year kicks in (July 1st?), the Wolves will no longer be a 2nd Apron team. Heck, they will even be under the 1st Apron by roughly 3 mil! This assumes both Randle and NAZ opt in on their player option. If NAZ opts out, the Wolves will be 18 mil under the 1st apron, and 30 mil under the 2nd apron!

This means the Wolves could re-sign NAZ at 25 mil and still be 5 mil under the 2nd apron.

I don’t think your numbers are correct, Tim. Here’s the situation:

Projected salary thresholds for next season are (1) $154.6M salary cap; (2) 187.9M luxury tax; (3) $195.9 1st apron; and (4) $207.8M 2nd apron. These are maximums increases under the CBA (10% higher than this season) and could be less.

Assuming Julius ops in and we pick up Garza’s $2.6 million option, our total payroll will be right around $175 million for a roster of 12 players without Naz. Assuming we sign Naz for around $30 million, that would put our payroll at $205 million, which would put us only $2.8 million below the 2nd apron without NAW and with two roster spots to fill to get to 14. I believe that each vet minimum contract will count $2.08 million against the salary cap. That means would not be able to get our roster to 14 and get under the 2nd apron even if we simply signed players to vet minimum deals.

Hopefully we’ll be able to sign Naz for closer to $25 million, in which case (with Randle) we’d end up with a total payroll of around $200 million for 12 players without NAW. We’d stay barely under the 2nd apron (assuming the threshold increases by the maximum 10% allowed) but we’d still be over the 1st apron even before adding two more players to fill out the roster. And again, all this assumes optimistically that the cap increases by the max 10% and Naz can be retained for no more than around $25 million.

[60WinTim]

There seems to be some misunderstanding of our Apron status going forward...

As we all know, the Wolves are a 2nd Apron team this season, along with all it's restrictions. But as soon as the 2025-26 financial year kicks in (July 1st?), the Wolves will no longer be a 2nd Apron team. Heck, they will even be under the 1st Apron by roughly 3 mil! This assumes both Randle and NAZ opt in on their player option. If NAZ opts out, the Wolves will be 18 mil under the 1st apron, and 30 mil under the 2nd apron!

This means the Wolves could re-sign NAZ at 25 mil and still be 5 mil under the 2nd apron.

I don’t think your numbers are correct, Tim. Here’s the situation:

Projected salary thresholds for next season are (1) $154.6M salary cap; (2) 187.9M luxury tax; (3) $195.9 1st apron; and (4) $207.8M 2nd apron. These are maximums increases under the CBA (10% higher than this season) and could be less.

Assuming Julius ops in and we pick up Garza’s $2.6 million option, our total payroll will be right around $175 million for a roster of 12 players without Naz. Assuming we sign Naz for around $30 million, that would put our payroll at $205 million, which would put us only $2.8 million below the 2nd apron without NAW and with two roster spots to fill to get to 14. I believe that each vet minimum contract will count $2.08 million against the salary cap. That means would not be able to get our roster to 14 and get under the 2nd apron even if we simply signed players to vet minimum deals.

Hopefully we’ll be able to sign Naz for closer to $25 million, in which case (with Randle) we’d end up with a total payroll of around $200 million for 12 players without NAW. We’d stay barely under the 2nd apron (assuming the threshold increases by the maximum 10% allowed) but we’d still be over the 1st apron even before adding two more players to fill out the roster. And again, all this assumes optimistically that the cap increases by the max 10% and Naz can be retained for no more than around $25 million.

I don't know, Lip. My numbers seem to align perfectly with your numbers...

I don't see NAZ commanding 30 mil on next year's FA market. I am not sure he'll even get Jaden-type money, which is 25 mil. I suspect he will re-sign for something closer to the 20 mil range.

And on the 10% increase... I believe the new TV deals are signed beginning for the 2025-26 season, and insures the cap will increase by 10% for several years. It would have increased by a lot more this year, but the CBA puts a 10% cap on the increase.

Also, I read that "minimum roster" spots for the purposes of calculating salaries for the aprons in the offseason is set at only 12 spots, not 14.

[FNG]

I'm not sure what I really want to happen with that Detroit pick, so I appreciate all the discussion here. The FNG who needs instant gratification wants the pick to confer as soon as possible...especially in this stacked draft. But then I think about how difficult it is to fit new young players into a rotation, and we already aren't giving many minutes to Garza, Shannon, Clark, Minott, Miller and until recently, Rob. Does TC really want to add a mid-teens firster plus an early seconder to that mix? Maybe better to wait a year? I don't know...I think I'll continue to cheer for the Pistons and let TC and finchie figure out what to do with in influx of young guys.

(In any event, how lucky are we that we don't have all those picks we gave up for Rudy? TC already has too much to work with...what would he do with a few more! )