Its Lottery Eve

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

I mentioned that I was about as calm as I can ever remember during the lottery last night (well, at least until they got down to about 6-7), and I'm feeling the same way about what we do with #5. In most years I have been emotionally invested in a certain pick, but not this year. Maybe I will change my mind as we get closer to draft day, but right now I'm not uncomfortable with any of these options:

1) Drafting the best player available at #5, with a slight preference right now for Hield.

2) Trading the 5th pick for a couple later picks that can provide us some needed depth.

3) Trade the pick for a vet that Thibs likes and fills a need.

I think draft night is going to be relaxed and fun...so many possibilities. Thibs has some work to do before that night, though, including getting a better fell for Bender in case uncertainty about him causes him to drop to 5. I also hope that Thibs has a good feel for how much he thinks Pek and KG might contribute next year, because that may have some impact on how he handles the draft and free agency.

[60WinTim]

I agree with you on the "feeling good no matter what happens" sentiment. But I suspect we will not see a trading down scenario. More youth is not what this team needs. Get the best talent at #5, or use it to get a quality vet to compliment the core that is in place.

[Monster]

I agree with you on the "feeling good no matter what happens" sentiment. But I suspect we will not see a trading down scenario. More youth is not what this team needs. Get the best talent at #5, or use it to get a quality vet to compliment the core that is in place.

I think a trade down is still possible IF you have a large group of players pretty equally ranked so even the first pick of your trade down scenario you still get a player you like AND you like a bunch of guys with the later pick. That's POSSIBLE and while this team is young if you can add young talent that you think has a legit chance of being at least a worthwhile rotation player then you do it and coach them up.

[TAFKASP]

I mentioned that I was about as calm as I can ever remember during the lottery last night...

Spurs fan's don't get excited about the lottery, why should we?

Just Kidding!

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

I agree with you on the "feeling good no matter what happens" sentiment. But I suspect we will not see a trading down scenario. More youth is not what this team needs. Get the best talent at #5, or use it to get a quality vet to compliment the core that is in place.

Agree. Trading down is fine if it means a pick and a vet, but not necessarily two more rookies.

As for taking someone straight up with the pick, I'm like LST and don't have a really strong desire for any particular player. But if I was forced to make the pick, I would go with Dunn.

While I realize Thibs is a defensive guru and is capable of coaching guys up defensively, you have to have at least a few guys that have a natural predilection to defend. Right now we have very few. In fact, I would argue that Rubio is the only Plus defender on the team right now, excluding KG. Yes, we all hope KAT and Wiggins become plus defenders, but they aren't there yet. Everyone else is a minus defender: LaVine, Jones, Shabazz, Bjelica, and Payne.

We also need more "does shit" guys - players that can impact games without having to score the basketball. In college, his rebounds, assists, and steals were all elite for a guard. And from a size perspective, I think he could play in a dual-PG lineup with Jones at times, so he doesn't have to compete exclusively with Rubio and Jones for minutes.

Murray and Hield can definitely shoot and that is an area we need to get better at. But what else do they do well? And with LaVine's evolution into an elite shooter and KAT clearly showing the potential to stretch the floor, I feel like some of our shooting woes will be addressed organically with the players we have.

Edit: The other thing I like about Dunn is his ability in the open floor. He fits what I think should be the style this team plays: Aggressive defense which gets turned into fast break opportunities.

[Duke13]

Q, I really like what you said about our shooting woes and having the shooting improved organically. I've tried to say that I'm past posts, but you explained it well. Lavine and KAT project as elite shooters, Wig is improving. We could definitely use a shooter or two off the bench or a potential small ball PF who can shoot. Envision a lineup with Dunn, Lavine, Wig and KAT. I think that lineup could potentially replicate a lot of the same mismatch problems Golden States "death" lineup presents.

[Monster]

I agree with you on the "feeling good no matter what happens" sentiment. But I suspect we will not see a trading down scenario. More youth is not what this team needs. Get the best talent at #5, or use it to get a quality vet to compliment the core that is in place.

Agree. Trading down is fine if it means a pick and a vet, but not necessarily two more rookies.

As for taking someone straight up with the pick, I'm like LST and don't have a really strong desire for any particular player. But if I was forced to make the pick, I would go with Dunn.

While I realize Thibs is a defensive guru and is capable of coaching guys up defensively, you have to have at least a few guys that have a natural predilection to defend. Right now we have very few. In fact, I would argue that Rubio is the only Plus defender on the team right now, excluding KG. Yes, we all hope KAT and Wiggins become plus defenders, but they aren't there yet. Everyone else is a minus defender: LaVine, Jones, Shabazz, Bjelica, and Payne.

We also need more "does shit" guys - players that can impact games without having to score the basketball. In college, his rebounds, assists, and steals were all elite for a guard. And from a size perspective, I think he could play in a dual-PG lineup with Jones at times, so he doesn't have to compete exclusively with Rubio and Jones for minutes.

Murray and Hield can definitely shoot and that is an area we need to get better at. But what else do they do well? And with LaVine's evolution into an elite shooter and KAT clearly showing the potential to stretch the floor, I feel like some of our shooting woes will be addressed organically with the players we have.

Edit: The other thing I like about Dunn is his ability in the open floor. He fits what I think should be the style this team plays: Aggressive defense which gets turned into fast break opportunities.

To add to a case for Dunn that while his FT% is bizarre consistently just under 70% each year of his career he has 2 seasons of plenty acceptable 3 point shooting percentage.

In addition he has pretty legit measurables to put him as a SG in the league so that's a good thing especially on a Wolves team that really has just one creative Ball handling SG in Lavine on the roster. Dunn could be a guy that would help fill bit of a void the Wolves have of another ball handler that can get the ball and create for himself. Watching his highlights he looks like he needs to tighten his handle though. It some ways I don't feel like his offensive game is all that refined and that bothers me a little when he is 22. I need to give the guys some credit on that end since he lost a year due to injury. There could be more potential because of the road he has had to deal with though. I like Q's idea of him being a "Do shit" guy but I'm not convinced he is a star type.

I watched Dunn in a couple of games and one I was sorta miffed about his supposed defensive abilities. He was getting beat by the other guard. Below is DX breakdown of him defensively and it makes me wonder how high Thibs would value him on that end compared to some other guys.

"Defensively, Dunn has elite physical tools, with the size, wingspan, and foot speed to be a lockdown defender when dialed in. Dunn tends to float off the ball, constantly in search of lazy passes for opportunities to force a steal and start a transition breakaway. This can certainly work - as we noted above, he has a prolific steal rate - but it leaves him out of position far too frequently, as he can be prone to being burned by back door cuts, lacks awareness in recognizing screens, and struggles to defend pick and rolls. Dunn's also prone to reaching more often than he should, picking up some entirely unnecessary fouls which limits his ability to stay on the floor. The potential is there, but his current consistency and effectiveness might be overstated if you just watched his highlights or saw his gaudy steal numbers."

[TeamRicky [enjin:6648771]]

I think if we keep the pick its most likely to be Dunn. However, I think Thibs really likes Rubio and what he brings so that we'd bring in Dunn in a complementary role. He'd probably get minutes at both the 1 and 2 and so we'd get a four guard rotation with Rubio, Zach, Dunn and Tyus. If we add Deng and a big like Cole Aldrich, I'd be happy with our offseason.

PS. Jonathan Givony who writes for The Vertical and DraftExpress has us taking Dunn ahead of both Murray and Buddy Hield. I favor Buddy over Dunn, but its so close I'd be happy either way. http://sports.yahoo.com/news/version-iii--the-vertical-s-2016-nba-mock-draft-235113108.html

[Duke13]

I don't think they should draft for short term need like shooting. You draft the best player in my opinion. I get the delicate balance between team fit versus long term potential. This isn't a championship team looking for that one right piece, accumulating talent is still important IMO

[Monster]

I don't think they should draft for short term need like shooting. You draft the best player in my opinion. I get the delicate balance between team fit versus long term potential. This isn't a championship team looking for that one right piece, accumulating talent is still important IMO

I completely agree. I do think you maybe don't draft a guy if he really doesn't fit if you have everything locked in at a spot but I don't see the Wolves as that. No player is absolutely locked into a position. Wiggins Towns and Lavine are locked in as building blocks but Towns and Wiggins what position? Is Lavine a full time SG and what does that mean for Wiggins at SF? Rubio there are still some questions there and I don't want to replace him there is no reason not to draft a PG type if he is really the best player available. Rubio's size could allow him to guard both guard spots with another PG type especially if it's a guy like Dunn. BPA that's what the Wolves are set up for and its a great place to be.