The return of Hernangomez vs the Mavs

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

FNG -

If I were to ignore the box score and look purely at what my eyes told me from last night, I would say Naz Reid had a terrible game. He was bad on both ends. But because he is outplaying his contract and has generally done well this season, he isn't going to be called out as harshly as someone like DLO or Rubio when they play poorly.

I actually thought Vando had a poor night too. Again, hard to call him out as vociferously as others because of his contract. Edwards too had some rough spots, but he's a 19-year old rookie that has shown some improvement of late so it doesn't "feel" quite as bad when he misses a shot on a drive and the opposing team goes on a 5 on 4 fast break.

As for Rubio, I thought he was OK-ish last night. Doper will want to tar, feather, and deport Rubio every chance he gets because he has an irrational hate toward him as a player. It really doesn't matter how Rubio plays.

Cam is a bit more rational, as he believes Rubio's acquisition was a mis-allocation of resources and he plays the same position as a guy he happens to like in DLO that not many others do. So I get why he tends to be harsh on Rubio. And overall, Rubio has been a disappointment this year, no doubt. But he played a solid game last night - not great, not bad.

[FNG]

FNG, kindly, watch the games instead of relying on the box score to tell the story. It doesn't do the game justice at all. I also don't know how to get you to loosen up the stranglehold you have on plus-minus being the almighty superstat. I've run out of ideas.

I got out of Dodge and headed for warmer temps a week ago when I saw the cold snap coming, and I'm too cheap to cough up for the NBA Pass, so I'm stuck with the box score and the GDT to get my Wolves fix until the end of the month. Not complaining though :cool: .

Yeah, you're not going to get me off of plus-minus (or more comprehensive versions like RPM) as long as they keep awarding wins to the team that scores more points than the other. Although I admit that with small sample sizes (like one game) its evidence is more anecdotal than persuasive. And I'd never try to get you to abandon your opinion that DLO has a positive impact on his team, even though he consistently shows up very poorly in RPM measures. They're just different views, and that's what makes forums like this fun.

The problem I have with many standard basketball stats is they ignore the overall impact a player has on his team. Defensive measures are almost entirely overlooked during casual discussions about the value of a player. That's why I gravitate toward stats which try to incorporate every aspect of a player's performance. And while there are occasional exceptions, the more all-encompassing stats seldom let me down...players who do very well in these type of stats are usually guys I see as winners.

Scoring and shooting are the easiest quantifiable measures, so they are the ones we talk about most. I get that. But last night is a great example of why scoring and shooting are not the best indicators of value. As I said earlier, I really like Nowell...I'd like to see him as our starting SG. But Ryan had to play him out of position last night having only one healthy PG available. And who was more valuable on the court last night- the PG who made 3 out of 9 shots but whose team outscored the other by 10 points when he was out there giving easy looks to the scorers, or the PG who made 6 out of 9 shots, but whose team got outscored by 13 points while he was out there? Not Nowell's fault because he shouldn't have to play PG (thank you, Rosas). But it's pretty clear which PG was more valuable last night, and it's not the one who got all the favorable reviews.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Lineup combinations, game situations, and who the opposing team has on the floor at various times just doesn't matter to you apparently when you're coming up with this spiel. There's value in plus-minus in addition to other metrics. Continuing to rely solely on plus-minus to paint a picture, especially for one individual game that you didn't even watch, is absolutely asinine to me. I dig the back-and-forth with you, FNG, and it's clear to me you're very passionate and knowledgeable, but we will never see eye to eye on this.

[AbeVigodaLive]

Let's have some fun with that funky lil Plus-Minus Stat...

DeMar DeRozan has nice counting stats. (20 / 5 / 7 / 49% fg.) And the Spurs have a somewhat surprising 14 - 10 record. They're looking like a potential playoff team. Too bad they're still the village idiots.

Yet another season where DeRozan is leading his team in minutes (by 4 mpg)... and they make the playoffs... but he has a negative +/- on the court. (-3)

One of these seasons, a smart team will wake up to the guy actively hurting the team... bench him for his backup... and win the title going away. Patty Mills, Rudy Gay and Jakob Poetl are killing it with plus-minus values. Remember, just a few years ago when Gay was the poster boy for the "our team got better by giving him away" trade?




[Note: Ok. I'm being a bit facetious here. But seriously... I know he's going on a decade with this statistical anomaly... it's basically his legacy at this point with stat heads. But it'll be the 7th time he makes the playoffs in 8 seasons. What do his coaches know that the statistic doesn't? I think there's value in the stat... but there also must be an explanation for a guy like DeRozan.]

[FNG]

I am passionate about my Wolves, Cam, although I often wonder why :? .

But just to be clear, the factors you mention like lineup considerations are quite important to me. Kek mentioned for instance that Rubio's plus 10 was due a lot to Beasley setting a Wolves record for points in a quarter, and I agree. But there are two sides to that coin. It's likely that having a pass-first veteran PG like Ricky on the court with him was a major factor in Beasley getting so many open looks.

And I agree that you can't take too much from plus-minus in one individual game...I need a much larger sample size to form conclusions about value. Fortunately I find that generally plus-minus seems to be a quite consistent measure over a period of years. Guys like James and Lowry will always be near the top, and guys like LaVine, despite his great offensive numbers, will always be near the bottom. That's meaningful to me.

And I can even learn something from plus/minus from one game. I hope Ryan Saunders looks at Nowell's minus 13 despite a nice shooting night and asks himself what happened...and hopefully that will be the end to the Nowell PG experiment.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

It's likely that having a pass-first veteran PG like Ricky on the court with him was a major factor in Beasley getting so many open looks.
...

And I can even learn something from plus/minus from one game. I hope Ryan Saunders looks at Nowell's minus 13 despite a nice shooting night and asks himself what happened...and hopefully that will be the end to the Nowell PG experiment.

This is another example of what I'm talking about when I say that the box score doesn't tell the whole story. You've looked at the numbers and come to your own conclusions -- painting a pretty picture in your head -- that also wasn't even close what transpired on the court. Watching the game is important.

Beasley scored eight points in the first three quarters before erupting for 22 in the final frame. He was struggling in ways that we've seen him do numerous times on the road. And then in the fourth quarter the guy caught fire. He couldn't miss. In fact, he only missed once as he made seven of his eight shot attempts in the quarter. Rubio assisted on exactly one of Beasley's buckets in the final quarter coming at the 8:02 mark. One. Uno. The rest of Beasley's shots were either pull-ups, step-backs, or assisted by other teammates. Beasley made a number of difficult, contested shots from the perimeter that simply can't be explained by "having a pass-first veteran PG" on the court with him.

Also, Nowell was a -13 primarily because he played a good portion of his minutes alongside three other guards and Vanderbilt while the Mavs played a lineup that consisted of two bigs and Doncic. I even noted this earlier in the thread. Minnesota gave up a number of points in the paint during his minutes that have nothing to do with him. But that doesn't show up in plus-minus so I guess it doesn't matter.

Who needs context anymore?

[DNatagal]

Want to know why the Wolves had a poor first quarter? Weak layup attempts against a guy that is 7'6" that led to easy points in transition. The Wolves won every quarter after they made some changes. Now if they could make those changes before falling behind by 20+ they might look better.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

[youtube] https://youtu.be/q5qd2rk62jk[/youtube]

Oh, man. Look at all these wide open shots Rubio created for Beasley. Is it too late to vote for him to be on the All-Star team?

[Coolbreeze44]

Gotta give props to FNG for this line:

Yeah, you're not going to get me off of plus-minus (or more comprehensive versions like RPM) as long as they keep awarding wins to the team that scores more points than the other.

Simple, yet powerful statement.

[FNG]

I am passionate about

FNG -

If I were to ignore the box score and look purely at what my eyes told me from last night, I would say Naz Reid had a terrible game. He was bad on both ends. But because he is outplaying his contract and has generally done well this season, he isn't going to be called out as harshly as someone like DLO or Rubio when they play poorly.

I actually thought Vando had a poor night too. Again, hard to call him out as vociferously as others because of his contract. Edwards too had some rough spots, but he's a 19-year old rookie that has shown some improvement of late so it doesn't "feel" quite as bad when he misses a shot on a drive and the opposing team goes on a 5 on 4 fast break.

As for Rubio, I thought he was OK-ish last night. Doper will want to tar, feather, and deport Rubio every chance he gets because he has an irrational hate toward him as a player. It really doesn't matter how Rubio plays.

Cam is a bit more rational, as he believes Rubio's acquisition was a mis-allocation of resources and he plays the same position as a guy he happens to like in DLO that not many others do. So I get why he tends to be harsh on Rubio. And overall, Rubio has been a disappointment this year, no doubt. But he played a solid game last night - not great, not bad.

Thanks for the additional color on the game, Q, and thx to Cam and Kek too. What were your thoughts about Nowell in the game? I'm especially interested because I suspect DLO might be out again tonight and J-Mac may not be back from Iowa, leaving Nowell to have to play the point again against (possibly returning from injury) defensive-savant Patrick Beverly. I'm noting that Nowell had a great scoring game with 18 points in only 21 minutes, so it seems almost mathematically impossible for him to be a minus 13 while scoring so efficiently! I look at him only having 1 assist in those 21 minutes, and question whether Nowell has a future as a PG. What did you see...did the ball move well when he was running the point, or was he a ball stopper?

Maybe this won't even be relevant if either DLO or J-Mac can play. Nowell has been so effective scoring the basketball that I really want to see him get some significant minutes at SG.