Minnesota Sports Forum

khans2k5 wrote:They do split WS into offense and defense. Ricky has only had an offensive win share over 1 one time in his career (his 81 game season at 2.2). Lawson has only posted less than 3 in his rookie year. Defensively Ricky is higher at 3.6 in his last full season to Lawson's best of 1.8. At the end of the day the gap between Lawson and Ricky's offense and their defense still favors Lawson overall. I'd rather have Lawson's almost 15/10/3 than Ricky's 10/9/5. There are guys in this league that actually use their ability to put the ball in the basket to open up their passing game to rack up the assists. Ricky has the superior vision and passing, yet he has less passing lanes to work with because he isn't a threat to score. The true elite assist men in the game offset it with their own offense and Ricky just doesn't have his own offense to make the full offensive impact other players like Lawson make. He's a good player, but I'm not a fan of guys who make 14 million a year needing other players to perform well for their impact to be felt.

They split Win shares into offense and defense, but that doesn't mean it accurately reflects a player's defensive effectiveness. In fact, the main problem with WS is that it uses fairly spurious data to calculate what constitutes the defensive side of the equation (I do think the offensive side of the equation is pretty decent).

Here is a good article on its flaws: http://ascreamingcomesacrossthecourt.blogspot.com/2013/04/defensive-win-shares-are-completely.html

In a nutshell, a big part of the equation is based on overall team defense along with box score stats that don't always correlate to stout defense. For example, Andrew Wiggins had the second fewest defensive win shares amongst rookies that played 500 or more minutes last season. Adreian Payne and Nik Stauskas, just to name two others, actually had more defensive win shares than he did!

The bottom-line is that Win Shares is not an accurate way to capture the separation between Rubio and Lawson defensively. It's much larger in fact. Had Rubio played with another defensive stud or two, his DWS would probably be much higher because its been weighed down by the inadequacy of his team mates all these years.

CoolBreeze44 wrote:

khans2k5 wrote:So nobody believes Ricky's on/off numbers are skewed by the fact we have lacked a competent backup PG pretty much the entire time he's been here? JJ Barea is probably the best backup PG we've had behind Ricky and I don't think he's very close to the top in terms of quality backup PG's. Mo was traded before he really got the chance to be Ricky's backup this season. On/Off numbers are a combination of the guy leaving and the guy coming on. I don't understand how it's a good argument for saying how good a player is when it has to measure the performance of another player. You're essentially arguing Ricky's good because he's way better than our backup PG's. How is that a way to measure a guy against his peers individually? There's way too many factors that go into On/Off (who's replacing him, who's playing with his replacement, who is he playing with, who are they playing against) to use that as an excuse for why a guy is good. Yes good players have good on/off numbers, but they aren't deemed good players just because of their on/off numbers.

This is exactly right. It's one thing to spew stats, it's another to know what they actually mean.

If Ricky's backup JJ Barea is really so bad as people seem to think, why he has had typically positive plus minus ratings when he has been playing for other teams? Is he bad really only when he plays for Wolves or would it be possible that they are not as bad as people think?

Last time Barea had negative net rating (-7.0) while backing up someone else than Ricky was 2009-10 season, when he was backup for Jason Kidd that was selected for all star game that year. Barea was still backup for Kidd 2010-11 but had already positive net rating (+1.8) while Kidd had already negative. Barea's numbers were similar (+2.7) this year when he was mainly backing Rondo.

longstrangetrip wrote:I don't have Ricky in an untouchable group...I'm game for any trade that makes us better long-term. But I think it's folly to suggest we roll with Mudiay or Russell as our PG instead of Rubio. I think Russell has the potential to be an elite offensive NBA guard...but we're only talking potential here, and his defense is not likely to ever approach Rubio's. And I don't think anybody has enough information about Mudiay to make a rational conclusion about him. I'm comfortable staying with Ricky. Yes, his shooting is subpar, but his defense is very good, and we have all seen the positive impact he has on the team.

I'm more than comfortable rolling with Ricky. I'm downright excited to see what he can do paired with two #1 picks. Ricky flat out makes teammates better...just imagine what he can do with Wiggins and Towns/Okafor!

The bolded part above always gives me a chuckle. Out of the top 20 PG, how many of those guys can you say DON'T make their teammates better. While some players are better scorers than others, one of the major roles of EVERY PG is to facilitate the ball....and yes, thus make their teammates better. When statements like this are made (which is in virtually every rebuttal about Rubio's effectiveness/ineffectiveness), this statement is made almost to convince others that he is the only guy out there making other guys better. And I get it...he plays for a bad team. Well, in looking up stats, there are plenty of guys every year in the top 5 or so in apg that play for horrible teams. He is not alone.

I bet anyone on this board his stats are no different next year. It has been happening on this board since Rubio came over. I remember people saying that when we had the right personel, he was going to be a 15 apg guy. Adding guys does NOT instantly mean that Rubio is all the sudden going to add an additional 4-5 assists per game. In fact, the more talent this team adds, the less they will need to rely on Rubio in certain situations, thus potentially eroding stats a bit.

But Rubio makes guys better BETTER than the other guys.

Even when on perennially losing teams.

Hicks123 wrote:

longstrangetrip wrote:I don't have Ricky in an untouchable group...I'm game for any trade that makes us better long-term. But I think it's folly to suggest we roll with Mudiay or Russell as our PG instead of Rubio. I think Russell has the potential to be an elite offensive NBA guard...but we're only talking potential here, and his defense is not likely to ever approach Rubio's. And I don't think anybody has enough information about Mudiay to make a rational conclusion about him. I'm comfortable staying with Ricky. Yes, his shooting is subpar, but his defense is very good, and we have all seen the positive impact he has on the team.

I'm more than comfortable rolling with Ricky. I'm downright excited to see what he can do paired with two #1 picks. Ricky flat out makes teammates better...just imagine what he can do with Wiggins and Towns/Okafor!

The bolded part above always gives me a chuckle. Out of the top 20 PG, how many of those guys can you say DON'T make their teammates better. While some players are better scorers than others, one of the major roles of EVERY PG is to facilitate the ball....and yes, thus make their teammates better. When statements like this are made (which is in virtually every rebuttal about Rubio's effectiveness/ineffectiveness), this statement is made almost to convince others that he is the only guy out there making other guys better. And I get it...he plays for a bad team. Well, in looking up stats, there are plenty of guys every year in the top 5 or so in apg that play for horrible teams. He is not alone.

I bet anyone on this board his stats are no different next year. It has been happening on this board since Rubio came over. I remember people saying that when we had the right personel, he was going to be a 15 apg guy. Adding guys does NOT instantly mean that Rubio is all the sudden going to add an additional 4-5 assists per game. In fact, the more talent this team adds, the less they will need to rely on Rubio in certain situations, thus potentially eroding stats a bit.

I have always disagreed with those that think Ricky can magically make individual players better. I feel the same way about KG's mentoring and have been pretty vocal about it.

What Ricky does do, however, is help the team play better through his individual play. And for gifted offensive players like Kevin Love, Rubio certainly ensures those gifts are taken full advantage of and featured. But he certainly can't turn a lemon into lemonade (case in point - Derrick Williams and Wes Johnson).

As for Ricky's assists total, I don't really care if they improve or not. Lots of factors come into play when determining how many assists a player can get, including team mates, offensive system, and whether there are other ball handlers on the court. We already know he's an elite passer and playmaker and elite defender. Those things aren't changing, whether he averages 8 APG or 12 APG.

Q12543 wrote:

Hicks123 wrote:

longstrangetrip wrote:I don't have Ricky in an untouchable group...I'm game for any trade that makes us better long-term. But I think it's folly to suggest we roll with Mudiay or Russell as our PG instead of Rubio. I think Russell has the potential to be an elite offensive NBA guard...but we're only talking potential here, and his defense is not likely to ever approach Rubio's. And I don't think anybody has enough information about Mudiay to make a rational conclusion about him. I'm comfortable staying with Ricky. Yes, his shooting is subpar, but his defense is very good, and we have all seen the positive impact he has on the team.

I'm more than comfortable rolling with Ricky. I'm downright excited to see what he can do paired with two #1 picks. Ricky flat out makes teammates better...just imagine what he can do with Wiggins and Towns/Okafor!

The bolded part above always gives me a chuckle. Out of the top 20 PG, how many of those guys can you say DON'T make their teammates better. While some players are better scorers than others, one of the major roles of EVERY PG is to facilitate the ball....and yes, thus make their teammates better. When statements like this are made (which is in virtually every rebuttal about Rubio's effectiveness/ineffectiveness), this statement is made almost to convince others that he is the only guy out there making other guys better. And I get it...he plays for a bad team. Well, in looking up stats, there are plenty of guys every year in the top 5 or so in apg that play for horrible teams. He is not alone.

I bet anyone on this board his stats are no different next year. It has been happening on this board since Rubio came over. I remember people saying that when we had the right personel, he was going to be a 15 apg guy. Adding guys does NOT instantly mean that Rubio is all the sudden going to add an additional 4-5 assists per game. In fact, the more talent this team adds, the less they will need to rely on Rubio in certain situations, thus potentially eroding stats a bit.

I have always disagreed with those that think Ricky can magically make individual players better. I feel the same way about KG's mentoring and have been pretty vocal about it.

What Ricky does do, however, is help the team play better through his individual play. And for gifted offensive players like Kevin Love, Rubio certainly ensures those gifts are taken full advantage of and featured. But he certainly can't turn a lemon into lemonade (case in point - Derrick Williams and Wes Johnson).

As for Ricky's assists total, I don't really care if they improve or not. Lots of factors come into play when determining how many assists a player can get, including team mates, offensive system, and whether there are other ball handlers on the court. We already know he's an elite passer and playmaker and elite defender. Those things aren't changing, whether he averages 8 APG or 12 APG.

I concede we play better with Ricky...but someone brought up point earlier about the fact that the dropoff from Rubio to our backup pg's has been large.

Above bolded section....Is he? Is it because of his flair? The fun pass? I ask because as I evaluate his game vs other PG, many other PG are equally good or better in the assist category, AS WELL AS scoring a lot more on their own. You would think that a guy like Rubio, who virtually NEVER looks for his own shot and is almost always looking to set someone else up, would naturally accrue more assists just by the nature of his style and play. Especially if he is an elite playmaker. Yet there are several players that seemingly set guys up via more assists as well as scoring a ton more ppg.

I think we could argue all day, and frankly my arguments are more devil's-advocate than anything, but I just don't feel Rubio is a player to worry about staying or leaving. He is a good, not great player that is about to get paid a ton of money. My only comment is that at some point, he better show that he can lead this team to wins and not just "compete".

Q, I'm only asking because it was your take. If Ricky's our "elite role player", and I think he very well could be, then why is he being paid like a franchise player? Those guys you named previously, the Kidds/Rodmans/etc., weren't the highest paid players on their contending teams. Does that not make any difference to you?

Hicks123 wrote:

Q12543 wrote:

Hicks123 wrote:

longstrangetrip wrote:I don't have Ricky in an untouchable group...I'm game for any trade that makes us better long-term. But I think it's folly to suggest we roll with Mudiay or Russell as our PG instead of Rubio. I think Russell has the potential to be an elite offensive NBA guard...but we're only talking potential here, and his defense is not likely to ever approach Rubio's. And I don't think anybody has enough information about Mudiay to make a rational conclusion about him. I'm comfortable staying with Ricky. Yes, his shooting is subpar, but his defense is very good, and we have all seen the positive impact he has on the team.

I'm more than comfortable rolling with Ricky. I'm downright excited to see what he can do paired with two #1 picks. Ricky flat out makes teammates better...just imagine what he can do with Wiggins and Towns/Okafor!

The bolded part above always gives me a chuckle. Out of the top 20 PG, how many of those guys can you say DON'T make their teammates better. While some players are better scorers than others, one of the major roles of EVERY PG is to facilitate the ball....and yes, thus make their teammates better. When statements like this are made (which is in virtually every rebuttal about Rubio's effectiveness/ineffectiveness), this statement is made almost to convince others that he is the only guy out there making other guys better. And I get it...he plays for a bad team. Well, in looking up stats, there are plenty of guys every year in the top 5 or so in apg that play for horrible teams. He is not alone.

I bet anyone on this board his stats are no different next year. It has been happening on this board since Rubio came over. I remember people saying that when we had the right personel, he was going to be a 15 apg guy. Adding guys does NOT instantly mean that Rubio is all the sudden going to add an additional 4-5 assists per game. In fact, the more talent this team adds, the less they will need to rely on Rubio in certain situations, thus potentially eroding stats a bit.

I have always disagreed with those that think Ricky can magically make individual players better. I feel the same way about KG's mentoring and have been pretty vocal about it.

What Ricky does do, however, is help the team play better through his individual play. And for gifted offensive players like Kevin Love, Rubio certainly ensures those gifts are taken full advantage of and featured. But he certainly can't turn a lemon into lemonade (case in point - Derrick Williams and Wes Johnson).

As for Ricky's assists total, I don't really care if they improve or not. Lots of factors come into play when determining how many assists a player can get, including team mates, offensive system, and whether there are other ball handlers on the court. We already know he's an elite passer and playmaker and elite defender. Those things aren't changing, whether he averages 8 APG or 12 APG.

I concede we play better with Ricky...but someone brought up point earlier about the fact that the dropoff from Rubio to our backup pg's has been large.

Above bolded section....Is he? Is it because of his flair? The fun pass? I ask because as I evaluate his game vs other PG, many other PG are equally good or better in the assist category, AS WELL AS scoring a lot more on their own. You would think that a guy like Rubio, who virtually NEVER looks for his own shot and is almost always looking to set someone else up, would naturally accrue more assists just by the nature of his style and play. Especially if he is an elite playmaker. Yet there are several players that seemingly set guys up via more assists as well as scoring a ton more ppg.

I think we could argue all day, and frankly my arguments are more devil's-advocate than anything, but I just don't feel Rubio is a player to worry about staying or leaving. He is a good, not great player that is about to get paid a ton of money. My only comment is that at some point, he better show that he can lead this team to wins and not just "compete".

He's top 5 in nearly every assist category that exists, whether it's sheer volume, "hit rate" - meaning percentage of passes that leads to a bucket, and hockey assists. He is simply one of the best in the league at finding open people and making the right pass, whether it's flashy or not. So it's not just that he gives up shots for assists - he's actually been proven to be an efficient passer as well.

Camden wrote:Q, I'm only asking because it was your take. If Ricky's our "elite role player", and I think he very well could be, then why is he being paid like a franchise player? Those guys you named previously, the Kidds/Rodmans/etc., weren't the highest paid players on their contending teams. Does that not make any difference to you?

He's not paid like a franchise player. He would be the 4th highest paid player on Cleveland's team next season (assuming LeBron, Irving, and Love all stay). He's paid less than both Durant and Westbrook. He's paid less than Paul and Griffin.

I happen to think he's our best player right now, at least until Wiggins passes him in the next couple of years (hopefully). I hope our lottery pick ultimately is better than him too.

Q12543 wrote:

Camden wrote:Q, I'm only asking because it was your take. If Ricky's our "elite role player", and I think he very well could be, then why is he being paid like a franchise player? Those guys you named previously, the Kidds/Rodmans/etc., weren't the highest paid players on their contending teams. Does that not make any difference to you?

He's not paid like a franchise player. He would be the 4th highest paid player on Cleveland's team next season (assuming LeBron, Irving, and Love all stay). He's paid less than both Durant and Westbrook. He's paid less than Paul and Griffin.

I happen to think he's our best player right now, at least until Wiggins passes him in the next couple of years (hopefully). I hope our lottery pick ultimately is better than him too.

I think Rubio is the team's best player too.

Sadly, that's why the team sucked balls. Let's hope Wiggins and the #1 supplant him sooner than later... and Rubio improves too so the team starts moving up the standings.