The Wolves Salary Cap Problem

[FNG]

I certainly agree that when the rubber hits the road next offseason, some tough decision will need to be made. And that includes trading Rudy or KAT. The Wolves fell far shot of achieving their potential this past season. But if the front office feels strongly that they can do something special if given another chance, why make a change of direction now when you can do it next season with more information to make competent decisions.

Now, if you don't think this group can do something special next offseason, then by all means, have at it...

FNG - I don't think there is any way the Wolves would venture that far into the luxury tax, if at all.

Could be, Tim...but we just don't know. Here's what we do know though. Marc Lore is not Glen Taylor. Glen is Mankato Milquetoast, Marc is Staten Island brash. I'm not going to diminish Glen's business success, but he seems to be much more cautious than Marc. And Lore's net worth is reputed to be much higher than Glen's (without even considering what ARod adds to the pot). Everything I read about Lore tells me he's not a guy who's comfortable not winning, so I think we are entering an era we aren't used to seeing in Minnesota. The era of the cautious businessman owner personified by the Pohlads and Taylor is over...we may now have much more of a riverboat gambler in Lore, and spending some of his immense net worth to win a championship might be on the table.

FNG, you really need to listen to that Dane-Jack Borman podcast from a few weeks ago where they went into Lore's finances and the unlikelihood of most teams going into that second apron.

Of course Lore can literally afford to go into the second apron, but there are lots of things people of all wealth levels can technically afford, but realize it would be stupid to spend the money on it. The second apron is so punitive that it would be foolish to cross that threshold unless you are talking about the chance of being a dynasty.

Q, I agree that going into the second apron is punitive, but I have laid out a potential Wolves 2024-5 cap situation that keeps us under it (for instance, I don't see a guy like Jaden McDaniels (who didn't even cracking the top 100 nba players pre-season and didn't make all-nba defense) getting paid the $30 million suggested here). And I was replying to Tim's statement that he didn't see ownership willing to go that deep into lux tax land. But again, I think we are looking at Lore through a midwestern lens that we are accustomed to seeing in local ownership. When you evaluate what Lore may or may not do, don't compare him to a normal businessman. Compare more him to an Elon Musk...someone who completely throws caution to the wind when making a business decision, rather then having the decision influenced by a roomful of green eye-shaded propeller heads like Taylor would. Lore is a risk-taking visionary...heck, look no further than Telosa to understand who he is! Is paying luxury tax foolish? To mere financial mortals with some degree of sanity like you and me, certainly. But to a crazy guy with a $4 billion net worth who wants to win an NBA championship, maybe not.

Again, I may be reading Lore completely wrong...he may not as competitive and out there as I see him, and if so, we will see him deal either KAT or Rudy before having to pay any lux tax. But I see him as intensely competitive and willing to do anything to show people he is a winner. He was the New Jersey 55-yard state champ his senior year in high school, while he was regularly skipping school and track practice to count cards at the Atlantic City blackjack tables. And of course he challenged and beat Jerry Rice in a 40-yard race just three years ago. And if you look at some of his business ventures (most, but not all, of which have been successful), you see a guy who is not willing to swing for the fences. This is not your father's Timberwolves owner, and I believe his is going to go anything it takes to bring a championship to this town.

[Wolvesfan21]

I think it's 60% chance KAT gets traded this offseason. Rudy probably 5%. Rudy's value has plummeted and TC would look like a clown in the media if he traded him. It's probably lower then 5% really.

KAT has the most value right now for the Wolves to get a great return and other teams going forward. It makes sense to take back 15 million or whatever less on contracts then having to wait a year then look to get back 50 million. That number limits your options as well. Just as who would you actually get back.

I think KAT does end up moving on this offseason. I approve as well as it's the best for the franchise for the long term. I don't see the Wolves as Title contenders with KAT this next season. No reason to run it back. They couldn't even get past the first round. Sure you can say "if" KAT stays healthy yada, yada. There are excuses every year.

[Lipoli390]

FNG - You might be right about Lore’s willingness to pay the additional luxury tax penalties associated with exceeding the second apron.He’s definitely the high-roller entrepreneur type. But my main point is that he should NOT be willing to saddle this organization with the transactional restrictions that come with exceeding that threshold. That’s especially true given the team’s transactional limitations resulting from missing four of seven first round picks the rest of this decade.

Lore’s high-roller personality already showed itself in him signing off on the Gobert deal. So you might be right about how he’ll approach the second apron. But the best NBA organizations are those that build, not those that gamble.

[Q-is-here]

Could be, Tim...but we just don't know. Here's what we do know though. Marc Lore is not Glen Taylor. Glen is Mankato Milquetoast, Marc is Staten Island brash. I'm not going to diminish Glen's business success, but he seems to be much more cautious than Marc. And Lore's net worth is reputed to be much higher than Glen's (without even considering what ARod adds to the pot). Everything I read about Lore tells me he's not a guy who's comfortable not winning, so I think we are entering an era we aren't used to seeing in Minnesota. The era of the cautious businessman owner personified by the Pohlads and Taylor is over...we may now have much more of a riverboat gambler in Lore, and spending some of his immense net worth to win a championship might be on the table.

FNG, you really need to listen to that Dane-Jack Borman podcast from a few weeks ago where they went into Lore's finances and the unlikelihood of most teams going into that second apron.

Of course Lore can literally afford to go into the second apron, but there are lots of things people of all wealth levels can technically afford, but realize it would be stupid to spend the money on it. The second apron is so punitive that it would be foolish to cross that threshold unless you are talking about the chance of being a dynasty.

Q, I agree that going into the second apron is punitive, but I have laid out a potential Wolves 2024-5 cap situation that keeps us under it (for instance, I don't see a guy like Jaden McDaniels (who didn't even cracking the top 100 nba players pre-season and didn't make all-nba defense) getting paid the $30 million suggested here). And I was replying to Tim's statement that he didn't see ownership willing to go that deep into lux tax land. But again, I think we are looking at Lore through a midwestern lens that we are accustomed to seeing in local ownership. When you evaluate what Lore may or may not do, don't compare him to a normal businessman. Compare more him to an Elon Musk...someone who completely throws caution to the wind when making a business decision, rather then having the decision influenced by a roomful of green eye-shaded propeller heads like Taylor would. Lore is a risk-taking visionary...heck, look no further than Telosa to understand who he is! Is paying luxury tax foolish? To mere financial mortals with some degree of sanity like you and me, certainly. But to a crazy guy with a $4 billion net worth who wants to win an NBA championship, maybe not.

Again, I may be reading Lore completely wrong...he may not as competitive and out there as I see him, and if so, we will see him deal either KAT or Rudy before having to pay any lux tax. But I see him as intensely competitive and willing to do anything to show people he is a winner. He was the New Jersey 55-yard state champ his senior year in high school, while he was regularly skipping school and track practice to count cards at the Atlantic City blackjack tables. And of course he challenged and beat Jerry Rice in a 40-yard race just three years ago. And if you look at some of his business ventures (most, but not all, of which have been successful), you see a guy who is not willing to swing for the fences. This is not your father's Timberwolves owner, and I believe his is going to go anything it takes to bring a championship to this town.

I get all of that FNG - that Lore has a much different make-up. That doesn't change the facts though including the non-financial punishments that Lip points out. Even Steve Ballmer - who is 10X wealthier than Lore - will probably want to avoid the 2nd apron.

As a fan, we should assume that the Wolves do not want to go into that territory, so the options are a) how to keep the "core 4" and build around it with guys on rookie contracts, vet minimums, and cheap overachieving scrappers OR b) someone from that group needs to go eventually.

[kekgeek]

The sun might be getting to me today but if lip is right and Mcdaniels is going to make 30+ million a year (I don’t think he will on the record) they should seriously consider trading Mcdaniels. I love Mcdaniels, I think he is a stud but if you are paying a guy 30+ million a year he better be a multi time all star and I don’t know if he will ever be a 1 time all star.

I want to say I love Mcdaniels but 30+ million is a ton for a guy who hasn’t shown he can be a volume scorer. Once again I think mcdaniels is a stud

[60WinTim]

Q - after the "core 4" and Minott, spotrac says the Wolves will 40 mil to work with under the apron. There is room to add/retain some key players, such as Conley and SloMo.

[Wolvesfan21]

The sun might be getting to me today but if lip is right and Mcdaniels is going to make 30+ million a year (I don’t think he will on the record) they should seriously consider trading Mcdaniels. I love Mcdaniels, I think he is a stud but if you are paying a guy 30+ million a year he better be a multi time all star and I don’t know if he will ever be a 1 time all star.

I want to say I love Mcdaniels but 30+ million is a ton for a guy who hasn’t shown he can be a volume scorer. Once again I think mcdaniels is a stud

I think they are probably assuming he is scoring 16-20 a game on good percentages. Certainly possible if he continues to advance year over year and guys like KAT are not around (more shots).