Teams that won a title without Top 5 Player

[Lipoli390]

I agree with your conclusion....I think. I've longed bemoaned the wolves imbalanced roster and to be honest it would be one of the main reason I would want to trade Rudy, although I'm not sure I actually do. However, it is absolutely the reason they need a reset.

That said, I need to pick at something you've said:

"an "elite roster" is one in which most if not every starter is at least a competent 2-way player"

And

"They have one player (Brunson) who gets targeted on defense a lot, but he is so good offensively he makes up for his defensive shortcomings."

I agree with your first point, but... Do you think Brunsen is a more competent defender than Ant? If you're willing to say the 2nd statement regarding Brunsen, does that not apply exactly to Ant? Ant is as good or better on both sides of the ball, that's inarguable.

The only reason I even care to pick this bone is because of how it relates to building the team. The Knicks just showed us that you can survive a Brunsen (or Ant) level defender. I desperately want to see Ant become the two monster he can be, but I'm not counting on it and to be honest it isn't absolutely necessary --- as you suggest it is. In all actuality, I would say the best way to get Ant to his best defensive impact while maintaining his offensive brilliance is to insulate him on that end as much as possible and allow him the freedom to be a playmaker on defense.

Your question about Ant's and Brunson's relative defensive abilities is a fair one, Aussie, and their strengths and weaknesses are actually quite different. Ant has the physical attributes and athleticism to be a very good on-ball defender (and Brunson doesn't), but his on-ball effort is just not consistent. But I give the nod to Brunson for two reasons: as Abe has pointed out, he is tough and elite at drawing charges (similar to our guy Shannon). And second, he is a very smart off ball defender (similar to Conley in my opinion), and that makes up for his relatively weaker on-ball defense. There's no question in my mind though that Ant's defensive ceiling is much higher than Brunson's.

I'm sorry but this is parody.

EPM- Brunsen: -1.6; Ant: -0.5
DDPM- Brunsen: -1.5; Ant: -0.13
D on/off- Brunsen: -7.3; Ant- 5.5
Net points per100- Brunsen: -1; Ant: +0.3

And then of course there is observable reality.... There is no world where Brunsen could body up Jaren Jackson Jr and shut his water off, none.

Ant's defensive numbers are honestly depressing and obviously well below what he's capable of, but even at his worst he's a better defender, in a very obvious and objective way.

Great stat work from you and Q. I hadn’t bothered to look and almost bought into the narrative that Ant is no better than Brunson defensively. As it turns out, the objective evidence tells use that Ant is better and it’s obvious that Ant has a much higher defensive ceiling. And I can’t emphasize enough that Ant is still 24 years old. We should expect him to continue improving on the offensive end and also improve on the defensive end over the next few seasons before plateauing.

[AussieWolf3]

Your question about Ant's and Brunson's relative defensive abilities is a fair one, Aussie, and their strengths and weaknesses are actually quite different. Ant has the physical attributes and athleticism to be a very good on-ball defender (and Brunson doesn't), but his on-ball effort is just not consistent. But I give the nod to Brunson for two reasons: as Abe has pointed out, he is tough and elite at drawing charges (similar to our guy Shannon). And second, he is a very smart off ball defender (similar to Conley in my opinion), and that makes up for his relatively weaker on-ball defense. There's no question in my mind though that Ant's defensive ceiling is much higher than Brunson's.

I'm sorry but this is parody.

EPM- Brunsen: -1.6; Ant: -0.5
DDPM- Brunsen: -1.5; Ant: -0.13
D on/off- Brunsen: -7.3; Ant- 5.5
Net points per100- Brunsen: -1; Ant: +0.3

And then of course there is observable reality.... There is no world where Brunsen could body up Jaren Jackson Jr and shut his water off, none.

Ant's defensive numbers are honestly depressing and obviously well below what he's capable of, but even at his worst he's a better defender, in a very obvious and objective way.

Great stat work from you and Q. I hadn’t bothered to look and almost bought into the narrative that Ant is no better than Brunson defensively. As it turns out, the objective evidence tells use that Ant is better and it’s obvious that Ant has a much higher defensive ceiling. And I can’t emphasize enough that Ant is still 24 years old. We should expect him to continue improving on the offensive end and also improve on the defensive end over the next few seasons before plateauing.

For whatever it's worth, I don't think it's absolutely necessary that Ant improves by a significant amount defensively next year; even tho I really want him too. The main problem in my opinion, is that you can't have two sieves, or maybe better said, two players with inconsistent and undependable effort.

For some reference, most team's number 1s don't have a DDPM above 1 and most are right around 0.5

Dpm is regarded by statictians and even FO executives as the best catch all basketball metric. It uses box score data, on/off numbers, and lineup data to measure a players impact on the score of game per 100 possessions, and weighs recent game more heavily. For my money it is the best predictive stat publicly available.

Digression aside: it isn't incumbent upon Ant to become an all defensive player. He just needs to be average and continue to grow offensively - he's already one of if not the most lethal scorer in the game, and I'd say there is still room to grow

[Monster]

I'm sorry but this is parody.

EPM- Brunsen: -1.6; Ant: -0.5
DDPM- Brunsen: -1.5; Ant: -0.13
D on/off- Brunsen: -7.3; Ant- 5.5
Net points per100- Brunsen: -1; Ant: +0.3

And then of course there is observable reality.... There is no world where Brunsen could body up Jaren Jackson Jr and shut his water off, none.

Ant's defensive numbers are honestly depressing and obviously well below what he's capable of, but even at his worst he's a better defender, in a very obvious and objective way.

Great stat work from you and Q. I hadn’t bothered to look and almost bought into the narrative that Ant is no better than Brunson defensively. As it turns out, the objective evidence tells use that Ant is better and it’s obvious that Ant has a much higher defensive ceiling. And I can’t emphasize enough that Ant is still 24 years old. We should expect him to continue improving on the offensive end and also improve on the defensive end over the next few seasons before plateauing.

For whatever it's worth, I don't think it's absolutely necessary that Ant improves by a significant amount defensively next year; even tho I really want him too. The main problem in my opinion, is that you can't have two sieves, or maybe better said, two players with inconsistent and undependable effort.

For some reference, most team's number 1s don't have a DDPM above 1 and most are right around 0.5

Dpm is regarded by statictians and even FO executives as the best catch all basketball metric. It uses box score data, on/off numbers, and lineup data to measure a players impact on the score of game per 100 possessions, and weighs recent game more heavily. For my money it is the best predictive stat publicly available.

Digression aside: it isn't incumbent upon Ant to become an all defensive player. He just needs to be average and continue to grow offensively - he's already one of if not the most lethal scorer in the game, and I'd say there is still room to grow

MJ was a hell of a defensive player even if he did play with Pippen. Edwards being just average on that end is quite frankly unacceptable especially based on the flashes he has shown already. Kobe was an all defensive guy. At one point when he was younger I thought was a joke but later in his career when watching him a lot more I realized he was pretty good on that end. Edwards needs help and injuries hurt him this year but I'm not letting the guy off the hook on that end when he has shown he isn't a clueless dude on that end.

[Lipoli390]

Great stat work from you and Q. I hadn’t bothered to look and almost bought into the narrative that Ant is no better than Brunson defensively. As it turns out, the objective evidence tells use that Ant is better and it’s obvious that Ant has a much higher defensive ceiling. And I can’t emphasize enough that Ant is still 24 years old. We should expect him to continue improving on the offensive end and also improve on the defensive end over the next few seasons before plateauing.

For whatever it's worth, I don't think it's absolutely necessary that Ant improves by a significant amount defensively next year; even tho I really want him too. The main problem in my opinion, is that you can't have two sieves, or maybe better said, two players with inconsistent and undependable effort.

For some reference, most team's number 1s don't have a DDPM above 1 and most are right around 0.5

Dpm is regarded by statictians and even FO executives as the best catch all basketball metric. It uses box score data, on/off numbers, and lineup data to measure a players impact on the score of game per 100 possessions, and weighs recent game more heavily. For my money it is the best predictive stat publicly available.

Digression aside: it isn't incumbent upon Ant to become an all defensive player. He just needs to be average and continue to grow offensively - he's already one of if not the most lethal scorer in the game, and I'd say there is still room to grow

MJ was a hell of a defensive player even if he did play with Pippen. Edwards being just average on that end is quite frankly unacceptable especially based on the flashes he has shown already. Kobe was an all defensive guy. At one point when he was younger I thought was a joke but later in his career when watching him a lot more I realized he was pretty good on that end. Edwards needs help and injuries hurt him this year but I'm not letting the guy off the hook on that end when he has shown he isn't a clueless dude on that end.

I agree, Monster.

[AbeVigodaLive]

Is it realistic for us to expect Edwards to improve defensively... as he gets more accolades for doing things the way he's done them, ages and possibly deals with more injuries, continues to add offensive usage, et al?

How many players get better defensively (via effort) after 6 years in the league while not giving up any of the offensive responsibility?

I could argue that human nature will lead to Edwards remaining an incredibly spotty defender... or even a worse one.

[rapsuperstar31]

Is it realistic for us to expect Edwards to improve defensively... as he gets more accolades for doing things the way he's done them, ages and possibly deals with more injuries, continues to add offensive usage, et al?

How many players get better defensively (via effort) after 6 years in the league while not giving up any of the offensive responsibility?

I could argue that human nature will lead to Edwards remaining an incredibly spotty defender... or even a worse one.

They call it taking possessions off on defense to preserve energy, guys like Lebron, Harden, and Curry have done it for years. Ant probably learned it from them during the Olympics. He can take some plays off on defense, but he does at least need to be locked in enough in the 4th quarter. There were plays in the regular season where he closed out late in the 4th, and even in the series against the Spurs where he didn't box out to get a rebound at the end of game 1. Not like that is uncommon, the Spurs forgot to put a body on OG on the game winning tip in game 4, and Hart forgot to box out Castle on a similar play at the end of game 5 of the finals.

[Lipoli390]

Is it realistic for us to expect Edwards to improve defensively... as he gets more accolades for doing things the way he's done them, ages and possibly deals with more injuries, continues to add offensive usage, et al?

How many players get better defensively (via effort) after 6 years in the league while not giving up any of the offensive responsibility?

I could argue that human nature will lead to Edwards remaining an incredibly spotty defender... or even a worse one.

I would argue that human nature cuts the other way given Ant’s competitive nature. As he sees others like Brunson and his former teammate KAT winning titles as he gets bounced in the 2nd round I would suspect he’ll be driven to improve in areas that will help his team win - and defense one of those things. No telling how much he’ll improve but it doesn’t have to be a lot for this team to get to the next level. Mainly his defense simply needs to be more consistent. Speaking of KAT, he’s a guy whose defensive improved more than 6 years after he came into the League.

There are VERY few teams that have a player as good as Ant on their roster, much less a player that talented who is under 25 years old. It’s up to the Wolves organization to put the right players around him and put the right head coach on the bench. Going back in time, Jerry Krause traded for the draft rights to Pippen and drafted Horace Grant. He also replaced Doug Collins with Phil Jackson. We saw the Warriors organization draft Thompson and Green to pair with Steph Curry. After OKC fleeced the Clippers to acquire a young SGA, they then drafted Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace, Aaron Wiggins, Jared McCain and of course Holmgren. They also signed Isaiah Hartenstein as a free agent and traded for Caruso. I see no reason why Edwards can’t be as good for the Wolves as SGA has been for OKC or Brunson for the Knicks. I’m not going to suggest Edwards can ever be quite on Steph Curry’s level, but he doesn’t have to be. What’s clear to me is that the Wolves front office needs to rise to the occasion and be much better than they’ve been so far.

It will be interesting to see what TC does this off season. So far all we’ve heard are rumors about TC pursuing the likes of Kyrie Irving, Giannis and maybe Kawhi. If that’s truly been his focus, then he’s not worth the money we’re paying him and this team is in big trouble. But if the reality is that he’s exploring savvy incremental moves via the draft, free agency and trades to put a slightly better mix around Ant, Jaden, Naz and Beringer, then I have hope. If Edwards turns out to be more of a Carmelo Anthony than a Dwayne Wade or SGA, then we’ll have to move him in a couple years for a bevy of valuable forward-looking assets. But we’re not there yet - not anywhere close. He’s imperfect and we can pick at those imperfections like we did with KAT when he was here. Heck, we did the same nit-picking with KG - “he can’t hit big shots or win game for you.” Of course, both went on to win championships elsewhere.

This franchise is fortunate to have only the second bonafide super star in its history - first KG and now Anthony Edwards. Let’s not lose sight of that fact or squander this blessing with obsession over Ant’s flaws or hale Mary trades for great or formerly great players in their 30s whose durability issues are profound and encompass almost their entire careers dating back to when they were still in their 20s.

[Monster]

Is it realistic for us to expect Edwards to improve defensively... as he gets more accolades for doing things the way he's done them, ages and possibly deals with more injuries, continues to add offensive usage, et al?

How many players get better defensively (via effort) after 6 years in the league while not giving up any of the offensive responsibility?

I could argue that human nature will lead to Edwards remaining an incredibly spotty defender... or even a worse one.

I would argue that human nature cuts the other way given Ant’s competitive nature. As he sees others like Brunson and his former teammate KAT winning titles as he gets bounced in the 2nd round I would suspect he’ll be driven to improve in areas that will help his team win - and defense one of those things. No telling how much he’ll improve but it doesn’t have to be a lot for this team to get to the next level. Mainly his defense simply needs to be more consistent. Speaking of KAT, he’s a guy whose defensive improved more than 6 years after he came into the League.

There are VERY few teams that have a player as good as Ant on their roster, much less a player that talented who is under 25 years old. It’s up to the Wolves organization to put the right players around him and put the right head coach on the bench. Going back in time, Jerry Krause traded for the draft rights to Pippen and drafted Horace Grant. He also replaced Doug Collins with Phil Jackson. We saw the Warriors organization draft Thompson and Green to pair with Steph Curry. After OKC fleeced the Clippers to acquire a young SGA, they then drafted Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace, Aaron Wiggins, Jared McCain and of course Holmgren. They also signed Isaiah Hartenstein as a free agent and traded for Caruso. I see no reason why Edwards can’t be as good for the Wolves as SGA has been for OKC or Brunson for the Knicks. I’m not going to suggest Edwards can ever be quite on Steph Curry’s level, but he doesn’t have to be. What’s clear to me is that the Wolves front office needs to rise to the occasion and be much better than they’ve been so far.

It will be interesting to see what TC does this off season. So far all we’ve heard are rumors about TC pursuing the likes of Kyrie Irving, Giannis and maybe Kawhi. If that’s truly been his focus, then he’s not worth the money we’re paying him and this team is in big trouble. But if the reality is that he’s exploring savvy incremental moves via the draft, free agency and trades to put a slightly better mix around Ant, Jaden, Naz and Beringer, then I have hope. If Edwards turns out to be more of a Carmelo Anthony than a Dwayne Wade or SGA, then we’ll have to move him in a couple years for a bevy of valuable forward-looking assets. But we’re not there yet - not anywhere close. He’s imperfect and we can pick at those imperfections like we did with KAT when he was here. Heck, we did the same nit-picking with KG - “he can’t hit big shots or win game for you.” Of course, both went on to win championships elsewhere.

This franchise is fortunate to have only the second bonafide super star in its history - first KG and now Anthony Edwards. Let’s not lose sight of that fact or squander this blessing with obsession over Ant’s flaws or hale Mary trades for great or formerly great players in their 30s whose durability issues are profound and encompass almost their entire careers dating back to when they were still in their 20s.

I don't think Edwards has to become a sure all NBA guy every year but based on what I have seen and his physical gifts he should be an asset on that end. We aren't talking about Zach Lavine or an undersized PG or whatever. Steph Curry isn't the most physically gifted guy but when the Warriors were winning championships he did enough on that end to not be a liability. He was often strong enough to hold up bigs till someone could come help. He is a super high IQ guy that played excellent team defense and was a threat to get steals defections etc. He is headed towards the HOF but does he want to be a Wade or Kobe guy or someone that was really good but didn't quite make it there like Lip said a Melo type guy who was really good and quite frankly injuries were part of the issue for him.

Jared McCain was acquired mid-season from the Sixers. Dort was an undrafted FA. Isaiah Joe was a trash heap pickup. Jaylin williams and Ajay Mitchell are successful 2nd round picks. Topic and Sorbert are 2 recent picks that due to injury and or health haven't been able to contribute.

I'll guarantee that Connelly is doing more than looking at high end players.

[AussieWolf3]

This very well said Lip! It's funny that for me too Melo has come up when thinking about the bramble of pathways in front of Ant. It's not that I think it's likely, but it's certainly something we could learn about his basketball character, that he isn't willing to make the changes and improvements to his game --- the less sexy ones--- that build championship habits.

One caveat I might mention as you ran through the key moves made by various franchise with and around their star players, how many of those moves happened after the star player was already 25? Klay, green and Steph already had several seasons under their belts before getting to 30s MVP years. OKC is definitely a good example of incremental moves but Williams was already in his 3rd year when they added Hart, Chet his 2nd year playing.

This isn't to refute your point, but there are different dynamics that require different responses and hold different realities. I don't think any member of this core will want gut through tanking years or middling years to get a top pick, and then wait for them to develop? It's what makes this summer so interesting, and what makes figuring the right balance to strike so difficult! I really don't know what answer is, and I've given more brain space to it than I ought, but I am interested to the route this all takes

[FNG]

Is it realistic for us to expect Edwards to improve defensively... as he gets more accolades for doing things the way he's done them, ages and possibly deals with more injuries, continues to add offensive usage, et al?

How many players get better defensively (via effort) after 6 years in the league while not giving up any of the offensive responsibility?

I could argue that human nature will lead to Edwards remaining an incredibly spotty defender... or even a worse one.

Of course we don't know, but although I argue often that Ant has the potential to be a plus defender, I don't think it is realistic to expect that. The fact that most analysts think his defense got worse last season (even before the injuries) is not promising. His issues on defense go beyond effort, and defensive issues that were mentioned in his draft profiles have not gotten better in the pros...specifically poor help defense and a tendency to allow back door cuts. KAT is an example of a player who I think has improved his defense in the pros, but unlike Ant, he was considered a good defender in college.

But as long as Rudy is back there to mop up, I think the Wolves can be successful even if Ant doesn't get any better on defense, although I'm not as optimistic about our defense if Ju is also out there with Ant. But while I don't think we can count on Ant's defense improving, I'm confident he will continue to improve on the offensive end...especially if he isn't asked to run the point.