The return of Hernangomez vs the Mavs

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Let's have some fun with that funky lil Plus-Minus Stat...

DeMar DeRozan has nice counting stats. (20 / 5 / 7 / 49% fg.) And the Spurs have a somewhat surprising 14 - 10 record. They're looking like a potential playoff team. Too bad they're still the village idiots.

Yet another season where DeRozan is leading his team in minutes (by 4 mpg)... and they make the playoffs... but he has a negative +/- on the court. (-3)

One of these seasons, a smart team will wake up to the guy actively hurting the team... bench him for his backup... and win the title going away. Patty Mills, Rudy Gay and Jakob Poetl are killing it with plus-minus values. Remember, just a few years ago when Gay was the poster boy for the "our team got better by giving him away" trade?




[Note: Ok. I'm being a bit facetious here. But seriously... I know he's going on a decade with this statistical anomaly... it's basically his legacy at this point with stat heads. But it'll be the 7th time he makes the playoffs in 8 seasons. What do his coaches know that the statistic doesn't? I think there's value in the stat... but there also must be an explanation for a guy like DeRozan.]

The question one has to ask to get to the bottom of DeRozan's +/- legacy is what were to happen if he is replaced in the starting lineup by a better defending, but lower volume stats - and therefore lower paid - kind of wing?

My thesis is that if you replace him with a defensive minded wing that is competent on offense (think Kentavious Caldwell-Pope), you pretty much get a similar or better result while freeing up salary to invest elsewhere. It's fundamentally a misallocation of resources. I think DLO and Zach LaVine are in a similar category although those two may be even worse defensively.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

I am passionate about

FNG -

If I were to ignore the box score and look purely at what my eyes told me from last night, I would say Naz Reid had a terrible game. He was bad on both ends. But because he is outplaying his contract and has generally done well this season, he isn't going to be called out as harshly as someone like DLO or Rubio when they play poorly.

I actually thought Vando had a poor night too. Again, hard to call him out as vociferously as others because of his contract. Edwards too had some rough spots, but he's a 19-year old rookie that has shown some improvement of late so it doesn't "feel" quite as bad when he misses a shot on a drive and the opposing team goes on a 5 on 4 fast break.

As for Rubio, I thought he was OK-ish last night. Doper will want to tar, feather, and deport Rubio every chance he gets because he has an irrational hate toward him as a player. It really doesn't matter how Rubio plays.

Cam is a bit more rational, as he believes Rubio's acquisition was a mis-allocation of resources and he plays the same position as a guy he happens to like in DLO that not many others do. So I get why he tends to be harsh on Rubio. And overall, Rubio has been a disappointment this year, no doubt. But he played a solid game last night - not great, not bad.

Thanks for the additional color on the game, Q, and thx to Cam and Kek too. What were your thoughts about Nowell in the game? I'm especially interested because I suspect DLO might be out again tonight and J-Mac may not be back from Iowa, leaving Nowell to have to play the point again against (possibly returning from injury) defensive-savant Patrick Beverly. I'm noting that Nowell had a great scoring game with 18 points in only 21 minutes, so it seems almost mathematically impossible for him to be a minus 13 while scoring so efficiently! I look at him only having 1 assist in those 21 minutes, and question whether Nowell has a future as a PG. What did you see...did the ball move well when he was running the point, or was he a ball stopper?

Maybe this won't even be relevant if either DLO or J-Mac can play. Nowell has been so effective scoring the basketball that I really want to see him get some significant minutes at SG.

FNG, It wasn't really that long of a stint, so tough to draw any conclusions on Nowell at PG based on this game. I agree that his future is as a SG. One area I was disappointed by was his defense. He got torched a couple times by Hardaway Jr. where he couldn't stay in front of him

I also really think you need to take Cam's and others' advice and stop focusing so much on single game +/-. While I'm generally an advocate for the +/- stat and its more advanced iterations, it is best viewed over longer time horizons. That's not to say that you can never draw a straight line from the way a guy played to the team +/-, but so much has to do with the other 9 guys on the floor.

For example, Porzi went nuts in that first quarter. Was that all Naz's fault or did Porzi just make a lot of tough shots and get hot? When Malik Beasley went crazy in the 4th and the Wolves dropped 45 on the Mavs, is that a universal indictment on the defense of every Mavs player on the floor at that time? I can guarantee you Malik worked his ass off for those points and made a lot of shots with a hand in his face.

[AbeVigodaLive]

Let's have some fun with that funky lil Plus-Minus Stat...

DeMar DeRozan has nice counting stats. (20 / 5 / 7 / 49% fg.) And the Spurs have a somewhat surprising 14 - 10 record. They're looking like a potential playoff team. Too bad they're still the village idiots.

Yet another season where DeRozan is leading his team in minutes (by 4 mpg)... and they make the playoffs... but he has a negative +/- on the court. (-3)

One of these seasons, a smart team will wake up to the guy actively hurting the team... bench him for his backup... and win the title going away. Patty Mills, Rudy Gay and Jakob Poetl are killing it with plus-minus values. Remember, just a few years ago when Gay was the poster boy for the "our team got better by giving him away" trade?




[Note: Ok. I'm being a bit facetious here. But seriously... I know he's going on a decade with this statistical anomaly... it's basically his legacy at this point with stat heads. But it'll be the 7th time he makes the playoffs in 8 seasons. What do his coaches know that the statistic doesn't? I think there's value in the stat... but there also must be an explanation for a guy like DeRozan.]

The question one has to ask to get to the bottom of DeRozan's +/- legacy is what were to happen if he is replaced in the starting lineup by a better defending, but lower volume stats - and therefore lower paid - kind of wing?

My thesis is that if you replace him with a defensive minded wing that is competent on offense (think Kentavious Caldwell-Pope), you pretty much get a similar or better result while freeing up salary to invest elsewhere. It's fundamentally a misallocation of resources. I think DLO and Zach LaVine are in a similar category although those two may be even worse defensively.

I won't deny that DeRozan makes a lot of money for what he does... but I'm not seeing the KCP swap.

For example, San Antonio basically already has better/similar versions of KCP. But they don't have the type of creator that DeRozan is.

Recent opinions of KCP MIGHT have a lot to do with playing with James and Davis. He was a middling player for several seasons for middling teams. Good enough to start... not good enough to be a difference maker. (Think a 13 ppg decent defender on 35-win teams)

DeRozan has been the leading guy in minutes for his teams for nearly a decade. And that's led to playoff berths in 6 of 7 seasons, including multiple 50+ win seasons. KCP did that one time for a 44 win team... but was still only 4th on his team in Win Shares and VORP. If you have superstar talent, by all means go with KCP for what he can offer as a complementary piece. But if you're a team that needs a guy to be a direct reason you're in the playoffs... history tells us DeRozan is the better option, even if +/- disagrees.

Again... I don't know what to make of the stat in this case. It's a really bad look for DeRozan. But I'm going with Popovich and Masai Ujiri on this one and assuming they're seeing other things that we're not seeing on the spreadsheet.

[FNG]

I am passionate about

FNG -

If I were to ignore the box score and look purely at what my eyes told me from last night, I would say Naz Reid had a terrible game. He was bad on both ends. But because he is outplaying his contract and has generally done well this season, he isn't going to be called out as harshly as someone like DLO or Rubio when they play poorly.

I actually thought Vando had a poor night too. Again, hard to call him out as vociferously as others because of his contract. Edwards too had some rough spots, but he's a 19-year old rookie that has shown some improvement of late so it doesn't "feel" quite as bad when he misses a shot on a drive and the opposing team goes on a 5 on 4 fast break.

As for Rubio, I thought he was OK-ish last night. Doper will want to tar, feather, and deport Rubio every chance he gets because he has an irrational hate toward him as a player. It really doesn't matter how Rubio plays.

Cam is a bit more rational, as he believes Rubio's acquisition was a mis-allocation of resources and he plays the same position as a guy he happens to like in DLO that not many others do. So I get why he tends to be harsh on Rubio. And overall, Rubio has been a disappointment this year, no doubt. But he played a solid game last night - not great, not bad.

Thanks for the additional color on the game, Q, and thx to Cam and Kek too. What were your thoughts about Nowell in the game? I'm especially interested because I suspect DLO might be out again tonight and J-Mac may not be back from Iowa, leaving Nowell to have to play the point again against (possibly returning from injury) defensive-savant Patrick Beverly. I'm noting that Nowell had a great scoring game with 18 points in only 21 minutes, so it seems almost mathematically impossible for him to be a minus 13 while scoring so efficiently! I look at him only having 1 assist in those 21 minutes, and question whether Nowell has a future as a PG. What did you see...did the ball move well when he was running the point, or was he a ball stopper?

Maybe this won't even be relevant if either DLO or J-Mac can play. Nowell has been so effective scoring the basketball that I really want to see him get some significant minutes at SG.

FNG, It wasn't really that long of a stint, so tough to draw any conclusions on Nowell at PG based on this game. I agree that his future is as a SG. One area I was disappointed by was his defense. He got torched a couple times by Hardaway Jr. where he couldn't stay in front of him

I also really think you need to take Cam's and others' advice and stop focusing so much on single game +/-. While I'm generally an advocate for the +/- stat and its more advanced iterations, it is best viewed over longer time horizons. That's not to say that you can never draw a straight line from the way a guy played to the team +/-, but so much has to do with the other 9 guys on the floor.

For example, Porzi went nuts in that first quarter. Was that all Naz's fault or did Porzi just make a lot of tough shots and get hot? When Malik Beasley went crazy in the 4th and the Wolves dropped 45 on the Mavs, is that a universal indictment on the defense of every Mavs player on the floor at that time? I can guarantee you Malik worked his ass off for those points and made a lot of shots with a hand in his face.

Totally agree that +/- means little in a one-game scenario. In this case though, and having not seen the game, I was trying to reconcile the glowing comments about Nowell in the GDT with the fact that we were essentially getting blown off the court in the 22 minutes he was out there. It didn't make sense to me since I believe (based on admittedly limited court time in his two years) that Nowell is actually a pretty good defender. But you've answered my question for me. It sounds like he had an uncharacteristically poor defensive night, and since that was never mentioned in the GDT, the only way I was surmising that was by his unusual -13.

I'm hoping to see the kid get more minutes at his natural position tonight and the rest of the season because I'm clinging to a hope that he can show he is an above-average 2-way player...maybe our starting SG down the line. He certainly is giving us hints that he can score efficiently...his 57.5% eFG% this season compares favorably to Beasley's also good 54.7%, and I've seen much better defense from Jaylen. But that's only going to happen tonight if either DLO or J-Mac can play, because Ricky's not going 48 minutes.

As you can tell, I've got one foot on the Nowell bandwagon after not being too impressed last season.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Let's have some fun with that funky lil Plus-Minus Stat...

DeMar DeRozan has nice counting stats. (20 / 5 / 7 / 49% fg.) And the Spurs have a somewhat surprising 14 - 10 record. They're looking like a potential playoff team. Too bad they're still the village idiots.

Yet another season where DeRozan is leading his team in minutes (by 4 mpg)... and they make the playoffs... but he has a negative +/- on the court. (-3)

One of these seasons, a smart team will wake up to the guy actively hurting the team... bench him for his backup... and win the title going away. Patty Mills, Rudy Gay and Jakob Poetl are killing it with plus-minus values. Remember, just a few years ago when Gay was the poster boy for the "our team got better by giving him away" trade?




[Note: Ok. I'm being a bit facetious here. But seriously... I know he's going on a decade with this statistical anomaly... it's basically his legacy at this point with stat heads. But it'll be the 7th time he makes the playoffs in 8 seasons. What do his coaches know that the statistic doesn't? I think there's value in the stat... but there also must be an explanation for a guy like DeRozan.]

The question one has to ask to get to the bottom of DeRozan's +/- legacy is what were to happen if he is replaced in the starting lineup by a better defending, but lower volume stats - and therefore lower paid - kind of wing?

My thesis is that if you replace him with a defensive minded wing that is competent on offense (think Kentavious Caldwell-Pope), you pretty much get a similar or better result while freeing up salary to invest elsewhere. It's fundamentally a misallocation of resources. I think DLO and Zach LaVine are in a similar category although those two may be even worse defensively.

I won't deny that DeRozan makes a lot of money for what he does... but I'm not seeing the KCP swap.

For example, San Antonio basically already has better/similar versions of KCP. But they don't have the type of creator that DeRozan is.

Recent opinions of KCP MIGHT have a lot to do with playing with James and Davis. He was a middling player for several seasons for middling teams. Good enough to start... not good enough to be a difference maker. (Think a 13 ppg decent defender on 35-win teams)

DeRozan has been the leading guy in minutes for his teams for nearly a decade. And that's led to playoff berths in 6 of 7 seasons, including multiple 50+ win seasons. KCP did that one time for a 44 win team... but was still only 4th on his team in Win Shares and VORP. If you have superstar talent, by all means go with KCP for what he can offer as a complementary piece. But if you're a team that needs a guy to be a direct reason you're in the playoffs... history tells us DeRozan is the better option, even if +/- disagrees.

Again... I don't know what to make of the stat in this case. It's a really bad look for DeRozan. But I'm going with Popovich and Masai Ujiri on this one and assuming they're seeing other things that we're not seeing on the spreadsheet.

DeRozan had the superstar talent in Toronto and his name was Kyle Lowry, with Jonas Valanciunas right behind him. There is no question in my mind that Lowry was heads and shoulders the straw that stirred the drink with Toronto. In fact, Masai recognized this and jumped on the opportunity to trade DeRozan for Kawhi because he knew it would be a massive upgrade and give him a second superstar. They won a title because of it.

Meanwhile, back in San Antonio, the season before Leonard was traded, he played only 9 games for the Spurs and they obviously missed him, dropping to 47 wins from 61 the year before. Who soaked up most of Leonard's minutes on the wing? Kyle Anderson, one of those "middling" wings that is a smart player and can defend, but probably lands in a similar category as KCP.

Now the following season, enter DeMar DeRozan and exit Kyle Anderson. How many wins did San Antonio achieve? 48. So basically adding this supposed star player from Toronto to soak up most of Kyle Anderson's minutes only led to one more win. Mmmmmm, methinks we might be onto something here!

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

I am passionate about

FNG -

If I were to ignore the box score and look purely at what my eyes told me from last night, I would say Naz Reid had a terrible game. He was bad on both ends. But because he is outplaying his contract and has generally done well this season, he isn't going to be called out as harshly as someone like DLO or Rubio when they play poorly.

I actually thought Vando had a poor night too. Again, hard to call him out as vociferously as others because of his contract. Edwards too had some rough spots, but he's a 19-year old rookie that has shown some improvement of late so it doesn't "feel" quite as bad when he misses a shot on a drive and the opposing team goes on a 5 on 4 fast break.

As for Rubio, I thought he was OK-ish last night. Doper will want to tar, feather, and deport Rubio every chance he gets because he has an irrational hate toward him as a player. It really doesn't matter how Rubio plays.

Cam is a bit more rational, as he believes Rubio's acquisition was a mis-allocation of resources and he plays the same position as a guy he happens to like in DLO that not many others do. So I get why he tends to be harsh on Rubio. And overall, Rubio has been a disappointment this year, no doubt. But he played a solid game last night - not great, not bad.

Thanks for the additional color on the game, Q, and thx to Cam and Kek too. What were your thoughts about Nowell in the game? I'm especially interested because I suspect DLO might be out again tonight and J-Mac may not be back from Iowa, leaving Nowell to have to play the point again against (possibly returning from injury) defensive-savant Patrick Beverly. I'm noting that Nowell had a great scoring game with 18 points in only 21 minutes, so it seems almost mathematically impossible for him to be a minus 13 while scoring so efficiently! I look at him only having 1 assist in those 21 minutes, and question whether Nowell has a future as a PG. What did you see...did the ball move well when he was running the point, or was he a ball stopper?

Maybe this won't even be relevant if either DLO or J-Mac can play. Nowell has been so effective scoring the basketball that I really want to see him get some significant minutes at SG.

FNG, It wasn't really that long of a stint, so tough to draw any conclusions on Nowell at PG based on this game. I agree that his future is as a SG. One area I was disappointed by was his defense. He got torched a couple times by Hardaway Jr. where he couldn't stay in front of him

I also really think you need to take Cam's and others' advice and stop focusing so much on single game +/-. While I'm generally an advocate for the +/- stat and its more advanced iterations, it is best viewed over longer time horizons. That's not to say that you can never draw a straight line from the way a guy played to the team +/-, but so much has to do with the other 9 guys on the floor.

For example, Porzi went nuts in that first quarter. Was that all Naz's fault or did Porzi just make a lot of tough shots and get hot? When Malik Beasley went crazy in the 4th and the Wolves dropped 45 on the Mavs, is that a universal indictment on the defense of every Mavs player on the floor at that time? I can guarantee you Malik worked his ass off for those points and made a lot of shots with a hand in his face.

Totally agree that +/- means little in a one-game scenario. In this case though, and having not seen the game, I was trying to reconcile the glowing comments about Nowell in the GDT with the fact that we were essentially getting blown off the court in the 22 minutes he was out there. It didn't make sense to me since I believe (based on admittedly limited court time in his two years) that Nowell is actually a pretty good defender. But you've answered my question for me. It sounds like he had an uncharacteristically poor defensive night, and since that was never mentioned in the GDT, the only way I was surmising that was by his unusual -13.

I'm hoping to see the kid get more minutes at his natural position tonight and the rest of the season because I'm clinging to a hope that he can show he is an above-average 2-way player...maybe our starting SG down the line. He certainly is giving us hints that he can score efficiently...his 57.5% eFG% this season compares favorably to Beasley's also good 54.7%, and I've seen much better defense from Jaylen. But that's only going to happen tonight if either DLO or J-Mac can play, because Ricky's not going 48 minutes.

As you can tell, I've got one foot on the Nowell bandwagon after not being too impressed last season.

If I were you, I'd put both feet in the Nowell bandwagon. While my Vando love came more viscerally through his playing style and hustle, therefore underplaying some of his flaws, my love of Nowell's game has gradually grown with time.

It started with the G-League last year, but watching him during the pre-season got me really excited about him. I believe he is all business and plays with a certain poise that instills confidence. He is also custom built to beat modern defenses, where they play drop coverage and give up the 3-10 footers. He has an outstanding short/mid-range game to go along with this long range shooting. But he's also starting to prove that he can get to the rim and draw some fouls too, something he didn't do much in the G-League last year.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

Now the following season, enter DeMar DeRozan and exit Kyle Anderson. How many wins did San Antonio achieve? 48. So basically adding this supposed star player from Toronto to soak up most of Kyle Anderson's minutes only led to one more win. Mmmmmm, methinks we might be onto something here!

That's a tough sell to me, Q. Those were two very different teams after the Kawhi Leonard trade. It wasn't as easy as simply replacing Anderson with DeRozan as the entire starting lineup was altered. Murray was out the entire year with a torn ACL, Manu Ginobili retired, and Aldridge started his decline as well. If anything, I'm actually surprised that team improved from 47 to 48 wins given the circumstances.

2017-18:
Dejounte Murray
Danny Green
Kyle Anderson
LaMarcus Aldridge
Pau Gasol

2018-19:
Bryn Forbes
Derrick White
DeMar DeRozan
Rudy Gay
LaMarcus Aldridge

[AbeVigodaLive]

Let's have some fun with that funky lil Plus-Minus Stat...

DeMar DeRozan has nice counting stats. (20 / 5 / 7 / 49% fg.) And the Spurs have a somewhat surprising 14 - 10 record. They're looking like a potential playoff team. Too bad they're still the village idiots.

Yet another season where DeRozan is leading his team in minutes (by 4 mpg)... and they make the playoffs... but he has a negative +/- on the court. (-3)

One of these seasons, a smart team will wake up to the guy actively hurting the team... bench him for his backup... and win the title going away. Patty Mills, Rudy Gay and Jakob Poetl are killing it with plus-minus values. Remember, just a few years ago when Gay was the poster boy for the "our team got better by giving him away" trade?




[Note: Ok. I'm being a bit facetious here. But seriously... I know he's going on a decade with this statistical anomaly... it's basically his legacy at this point with stat heads. But it'll be the 7th time he makes the playoffs in 8 seasons. What do his coaches know that the statistic doesn't? I think there's value in the stat... but there also must be an explanation for a guy like DeRozan.]

The question one has to ask to get to the bottom of DeRozan's +/- legacy is what were to happen if he is replaced in the starting lineup by a better defending, but lower volume stats - and therefore lower paid - kind of wing?

My thesis is that if you replace him with a defensive minded wing that is competent on offense (think Kentavious Caldwell-Pope), you pretty much get a similar or better result while freeing up salary to invest elsewhere. It's fundamentally a misallocation of resources. I think DLO and Zach LaVine are in a similar category although those two may be even worse defensively.

I won't deny that DeRozan makes a lot of money for what he does... but I'm not seeing the KCP swap.

For example, San Antonio basically already has better/similar versions of KCP. But they don't have the type of creator that DeRozan is.

Recent opinions of KCP MIGHT have a lot to do with playing with James and Davis. He was a middling player for several seasons for middling teams. Good enough to start... not good enough to be a difference maker. (Think a 13 ppg decent defender on 35-win teams)

DeRozan has been the leading guy in minutes for his teams for nearly a decade. And that's led to playoff berths in 6 of 7 seasons, including multiple 50+ win seasons. KCP did that one time for a 44 win team... but was still only 4th on his team in Win Shares and VORP. If you have superstar talent, by all means go with KCP for what he can offer as a complementary piece. But if you're a team that needs a guy to be a direct reason you're in the playoffs... history tells us DeRozan is the better option, even if +/- disagrees.

Again... I don't know what to make of the stat in this case. It's a really bad look for DeRozan. But I'm going with Popovich and Masai Ujiri on this one and assuming they're seeing other things that we're not seeing on the spreadsheet.

DeRozan had the superstar talent in Toronto and his name was Kyle Lowry, with Jonas Valanciunas right behind him. There is no question in my mind that Lowry was heads and shoulders the straw that stirred the drink with Toronto. In fact, Masai recognized this and jumped on the opportunity to trade DeRozan for Kawhi because he knew it would be a massive upgrade and give him a second superstar. They won a title because of it.

Meanwhile, back in San Antonio, the season before Leonard was traded, he played only 9 games for the Spurs and they obviously missed him, dropping to 47 wins from 61 the year before. Who soaked up most of Leonard's minutes on the wing? Kyle Anderson, one of those "middling" wings that is a smart player and can defend, but probably lands in a similar category as KCP.

Now the following season, enter DeMar DeRozan and exit Kyle Anderson. How many wins did San Antonio achieve? 48. So basically adding this supposed star player from Toronto to soak up most of Kyle Anderson's minutes only led to one more win. Mmmmmm, methinks we might be onto something here!

Lowry was an unheralded gem... who has now reached Superstar status to some as analytics are used more. I'd never claim he wasn't the best player on those Toronto teams... nor that Leonard was not a significant upgrade. But even with DeRozan soaking up the most minutes for 80 games and being a negative player while Valunciunis only played 22 mpg... the Raptors still won 59 games despite DeRozan. Somehow, despite Nick Nurse being an idiot for playing DeRozan so much.

As for the Spurs... it would be a better comparison if it was a one-to-one comparison. But it wasn't. DeRozan averaged 8 more mpg and started 10 more games than Anderson. But beyond that...

Green left in the trade
Parker and Ginobili retired.
Gasol was actually waived.
Murray was injured.
And Anderson moved to Memphis.

That's 6 of the top 9 players from a deep team that only had one guy play more than 27 minutes. Bryn Forbes was the 10th or 11th man on the Kyle Anderson-led Spurs. He was 3rd in minutes for the DeRozan Spurs, averaging 28 mpg. Kudos to Popovich for staying the course and making the playoffs again with so much turnover... AND... while being an idiot for playing DeRozan so much.

_________

We've beaten this issue to death, even though I always respect your takes. Again... I don't know why that stat is so harsh on DeRozan. It's a bad look for him for sure. But I also know that the guy has played the most minutes on winning teams almost every year. And we know how "hard" it is to win at a high level consistently in the NBA. There's a chance (1) Nick Nurse/Usiri + Popovich are idiots... or (2) there's noise that goes into that stat sometimes we're not privy to that explains the DeRozan anomaly.



[Edit: Damn it, Cam. Now I look like I copied you. Jerkface.]

[FNG]

Let's have some fun with that funky lil Plus-Minus Stat...

DeMar DeRozan has nice counting stats. (20 / 5 / 7 / 49% fg.) And the Spurs have a somewhat surprising 14 - 10 record. They're looking like a potential playoff team. Too bad they're still the village idiots.

Yet another season where DeRozan is leading his team in minutes (by 4 mpg)... and they make the playoffs... but he has a negative +/- on the court. (-3)

One of these seasons, a smart team will wake up to the guy actively hurting the team... bench him for his backup... and win the title going away. Patty Mills, Rudy Gay and Jakob Poetl are killing it with plus-minus values. Remember, just a few years ago when Gay was the poster boy for the "our team got better by giving him away" trade?




[Note: Ok. I'm being a bit facetious here. But seriously... I know he's going on a decade with this statistical anomaly... it's basically his legacy at this point with stat heads. But it'll be the 7th time he makes the playoffs in 8 seasons. What do his coaches know that the statistic doesn't? I think there's value in the stat... but there also must be an explanation for a guy like DeRozan.]

The question one has to ask to get to the bottom of DeRozan's +/- legacy is what were to happen if he is replaced in the starting lineup by a better defending, but lower volume stats - and therefore lower paid - kind of wing?

My thesis is that if you replace him with a defensive minded wing that is competent on offense (think Kentavious Caldwell-Pope), you pretty much get a similar or better result while freeing up salary to invest elsewhere. It's fundamentally a misallocation of resources. I think DLO and Zach LaVine are in a similar category although those two may be even worse defensively.

I won't deny that DeRozan makes a lot of money for what he does... but I'm not seeing the KCP swap.

For example, San Antonio basically already has better/similar versions of KCP. But they don't have the type of creator that DeRozan is.

Recent opinions of KCP MIGHT have a lot to do with playing with James and Davis. He was a middling player for several seasons for middling teams. Good enough to start... not good enough to be a difference maker. (Think a 13 ppg decent defender on 35-win teams)

DeRozan has been the leading guy in minutes for his teams for nearly a decade. And that's led to playoff berths in 6 of 7 seasons, including multiple 50+ win seasons. KCP did that one time for a 44 win team... but was still only 4th on his team in Win Shares and VORP. If you have superstar talent, by all means go with KCP for what he can offer as a complementary piece. But if you're a team that needs a guy to be a direct reason you're in the playoffs... history tells us DeRozan is the better option, even if +/- disagrees.

Again... I don't know what to make of the stat in this case. It's a really bad look for DeRozan. But I'm going with Popovich and Masai Ujiri on this one and assuming they're seeing other things that we're not seeing on the spreadsheet.

DeRozan had the superstar talent in Toronto and his name was Kyle Lowry, with Jonas Valanciunas right behind him. There is no question in my mind that Lowry was heads and shoulders the straw that stirred the drink with Toronto. In fact, Masai recognized this and jumped on the opportunity to trade DeRozan for Kawhi because he knew it would be a massive upgrade and give him a second superstar. They won a title because of it.

Meanwhile, back in San Antonio, the season before Leonard was traded, he played only 9 games for the Spurs and they obviously missed him, dropping to 47 wins from 61 the year before. Who soaked up most of Leonard's minutes on the wing? Kyle Anderson, one of those "middling" wings that is a smart player and can defend, but probably lands in a similar category as KCP.

Now the following season, enter DeMar DeRozan and exit Kyle Anderson. How many wins did San Antonio achieve? 48. So basically adding this supposed star player from Toronto to soak up most of Kyle Anderson's minutes only led to one more win. Mmmmmm, methinks we might be onto something here!

Lowry was an unheralded gem... who has now reached Superstar status to some as analytics are used more. I'd never claim he wasn't the best player on those Toronto teams... nor that Leonard was not a significant upgrade. But even with DeRozan soaking up the most minutes for 80 games and being a negative player while Valunciunis only played 22 mpg... the Raptors still won 59 games despite DeRozan. Somehow, despite Nick Nurse being an idiot for playing DeRozan so much.

As for the Spurs... it would be a better comparison if it was a one-to-one comparison. But it wasn't. DeRozan averaged 8 more mpg and started 10 more games than Anderson. But beyond that...

Green left in the trade
Parker and Ginobili retired.
Gasol was actually waived.
Murray was injured.
And Anderson moved to Memphis.

That's 6 of the top 9 players from a deep team that only had one guy play more than 27 minutes. Bryn Forbes was the 10th or 11th man on the Kyle Anderson-led Spurs. He was 3rd in minutes for the DeRozan Spurs, averaging 28 mpg. Kudos to Popovich for staying the course and making the playoffs again with so much turnover... AND... while being an idiot for playing DeRozan so much.

_________

We've beaten this issue to death, even though I always respect your takes. Again... I don't know why that stat is so harsh on DeRozan. It's a bad look for him for sure. But I also know that the guy has played the most minutes on winning teams almost every year. And we know how "hard" it is to win at a high level consistently in the NBA. There's a chance (1) Nick Nurse/Usiri + Popovich are idiots... or (2) there's noise that goes into that stat sometimes we're not privy to that explains the DeRozan anomaly.



[Edit: Damn it, Cam. Now I look like I copied you. Jerkface.]

https://giphy.com/gifs/much-test-exams-l4FGlmD871ayCC3cs

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

A bunch of those guys in DeRozan's first season with the Spurs ended up having career years from 3. I mean, multiple guys hitting 39%+. So as a team, they were the #1 team in 3 PT accuracy and it certainly wasn't DeRozan's long-range shooting that did it.

I've never said he's a terrible player or that coaches are idiots for playing him. But if in 11 out of 12 seasons, a player's team does better with him off the floor than on, that tells me that said player is not worth $30M, $25M, or $20M per year. You can explain away three or four seasons like that - but not 11 out of 12. He's just not that great. He's a role playing scorer that is overpaid. DLO and LaVine are more extreme versions of DeRozan.