Minnesota Sports Forum

I think we should pin the Tank-O-Meter to the top of the message board... at least until the Wolves can reach .500.

Seems like too much extra work to have to remake this thread EVERY season.

Obviously a big night for Wolves' ping pong balls, as they have a 2-game swing with both Philly and LA. Wolves now in sole possession of second place, just two wins ahead of the Knicks.

NY 17
Wolves 19
Philly 20
Lakers 21

longstrangetrip wrote:Obviously a big night for Wolves' ping pong balls, as they have a 2-game swing with both Philly and LA. Wolves now in sole possession of second place, just two wins ahead of the Knicks.

NY 17
Wolves 19
Philly 20
Lakers 21

Too bad we beat the Knicks and Jazz. The Lakers better watch out. If they pick 6 then their pick goes to Philly.

The TOM and Vegas are not in line tonight, as the TOM has the Wolves winning and Vegas has the Jazz favored by 5. Bottom line...the Wolves put some more distance between them and Philly/LA and solidify that second slot if Vegas is right, and they move one game closer to the Knicks. Rubio is expected to return, and if he does, that is conclusive evidence that Flip is playing to win...it would have been easy for him to hold Ricky out until Wednesday's game against the Raptors.

A lot of movement in projected wins tonight, as the Wolves and Philly both lose winnable games at home. The Lakers have un-tanked their way out of the running for a top three seed, and it's now a tight race among the Knicks, Wolves and Sixers. Here are the projected wins after tonight's games:

Knicks 17
Wolves 18
Sixers 19
Lakers 22

We're only 1 game out of the first seed, but I don't see us catching the Knicks. The TOM has the Knicks beating the Nets Wednesday night, but the Nets are playing better since Thad got hurt...two consecutive wins, including one over the Cavs... so I think the Knicks will lose. And one tanker for the Knicks should be enough to ensure the first seed for them. That sets up a big game in NY Sunday against the Sixers. If the Sixers can win that one, the Wolves will have a stranglehold on the second seed.

Based on schedules, I would say there are really only 2 real winnable games for any of the 3 bottom teams.

I would argue only about 3 or 4 teams in the east or NOT tanking. Have you seen the "fight" for the 8th seed records?

The Wolves and Knicks have each lost home games that the TOM had them winning, so the gap remains 1 game. We did put some cushion between us and Philly for the second seed. Here are the updated forecasted wins:

Knicks: 16
Wolves: 17
Sixers: 19
Lakers: 22

With 6 games remaining, we are still in the running for the #1 seed. As we discussed in another thread, Phil Jackson's apparent crush on Towns makes it important to Towns fans that the Wolves get the #1 seed. The Knicks currently have 14 wins, and should win 2 more...home games against Philly and Detroit (although the Pistons are playing well). The TOM has the Wolves only having a chance in one of their remaining games...the home game against the Pelicans. The TOM originally gave that game to the Wolves, but with Rubio likely out for the season and the Pellies fighting for the playoffs, the Wolves will actually lose that game.

What that means is that it is very possible the Wolves and Knicks will finish with the same record and enter into a tiebreaking process. Here's how it works. The number of "chances" allocated to the first two seeds will be divided evenly between the two teams. but since that number of chances is uneven (449), a coin is flipped to determine who gets the extra chance. More importantly, the results of this coin toss determines the draft order of the two teams if neither wins the lottery.

Lots of drama here in the final 6 games. None of this drama would have been necessary if the Wolves hadn't foolishly won that meaningless game last month in Madison Square Garden.

As an addendum to my previous post, it now looks like the Wolves will be either the #2 seed, or tied for the #1 seed in the lottery. Here are the percentage chances of getting the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th or 5th picks in both scenarios:

Tied for #1 seed: 22.3%, 20.1%, 17.5%, 33.8%, 6.3%

#2 seed: 19.9%, 18.8%, 17.1%, 31.9%, 12.3%

So regardless of whether the Wolves are tied for the #1 seed or the #2 seed, the single most likely outcome is that they end up with the 4th pick, and oddly there is a slightly larger chance of getting the 4th pick if they are the 1st seed. But thinking more positively, the Wolves have a 60 % chance of getting a top 3 pick if they tie for the #1 seed, and a 56% chance of getting a top 3 pick if the finish as the #2 seed.

There you have it...more math than you needed on a Saturday morning.

I'm afraid the Wolves might win at Sacramento. I'd hate to see us tie or pass the Sixers in the standings.