Tank-O-Meter...2015 edition

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Yes, it's that time of year again...when most fans begin to worry about playoff position, but Wolves fans worry about ping pong balls. I understand that Cool has channeled Joe Namath and guaranteed a lottery win for the Wolves, but I'm not entirely convinced. So, I dug deep in the garage, and there it was behind my snowblower...my trusty Tank-O-Meter. The TOM is a cousin of Tim's Klunk-O-Meter, but unlike Tim's KOM, the pronunciation emphasis for the TOM is on the O...and it has been remarkably accurate in recent years in predicting end of year results. I dusted it off and ran a few test games through it, and found that it was in excellent working order...hasn't missed a prediction yet!

Here's the interest in the ping pong balls this year. Many of us see this as a 5-man draft (and some may be cooling on Stanley Johnson), so finishing in the bottom 4 is important to the Wolves' chances of adding a piece that they really want. Because the wolves have been playing better since Rubio returned, and some teams above us have been losing, I was starting to become concerned about the Wolves moving up too far. The good news is this...I don't see much chance at all of the Wolves having less than the 4th most ping pong balls. Since it's unlikely that 2 teams with fewer chances will leapfrog us, I feel comfortable that we are going to have a shot at one of the Big 5.

I have assembled a spreadsheet for teams we are competing with predicting their future results, and I will update my prediction from time to time so those interested can see where we stand. I am forecasting currently that the Wolves will finish far ahead of the Knicks, so I am not going to include their projected wins total unless something freaky happens...just assume they will have the most pp balls. But I will update projected win totals for the teams I believe we are competing with. I haven't included Utah, Sac-town or Boston, because I think they will finish comfortably ahead of us. Here's my current forecast:
3/30 update:
Knicks 17 wins
Wolves 18
Sixers 19
Lakers 22



There you have it. The Wolves currently are sitting on a 4th place island, with a substantial cushion between moving up or moving down. So, barring a complete collapse by Orlando or Denver, or a freakish event happening on lottery night, it appears we will be drafting somewhere in the top 5.

You're welcome.

[Papalrep]

No predict the draft order of players Sir. I'll start:

1) Okafor

[Carlos Danger]

I've been saying "top 5 pick" for a while now and I'll stick with that prediction. Right now, it's a pretty even race to the bottom with the Wolves, Lakers, 76ers and the Knicks. Never under estimate what teams will do at this time of year to maintain draft position (and the Wolves have done this too): http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/40780/when-tankers-tell-the-truth

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Can we add team names to assess need? Assuming the order goes as the pp balls go, here's my mock:

Knicks: Okafor

Lakers: Mudiay

Sixers: Russell

Wolves: Towns

Magic: Johnson

Orlando may not want to draft an Arizona SF twice in a row, but it's the logical choice for them. Plus it gave me a chance to type "Magic Johnson" above! The four teams above them will be very happy with their picks in terms of quality and fitting a need.

[TRKO [enjin:12664595]]

I agree with it being a top 5 draft. If we fall out the guy I like is Stien. I love his defensive prowess at C and his athleticism.

[Hicks123 [enjin:6700838]]

Stein is fine...if we have the 15-20 pick. There is simply no way this guy can have enough impact to look at him in the top 5. Actually, I feel this is shaping up as a 4 player draft with Okafor, Towns, Mudiay, Russell....and then everyone else. I also really like Johnson, and I have talked him up a bit in other posts throughout the season, but I just don't view him as a game-changing player. His potential, IMO, is that of a super role player....not bad, but not what we need at this point. We have plenty of "good" players....we need a great one this year. I bring this up because sitting at 4 is a tough spot, as seemingly most years someone unexpected jumps into the top 3, which would move us to 5.

[60WinTim]

But I picked our win total to be in the 27-30 range!

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Stein is fine...if we have the 15-20 pick. There is simply no way this guy can have enough impact to look at him in the top 5. Actually, I feel this is shaping up as a 4 player draft with Okafor, Towns, Mudiay, Russell....and then everyone else. I also really like Johnson, and I have talked him up a bit in other posts throughout the season, but I just don't view him as a game-changing player. His potential, IMO, is that of a super role player....not bad, but not what we need at this point. We have plenty of "good" players....we need a great one this year. I bring this up because sitting at 4 is a tough spot, as seemingly most years someone unexpected jumps into the top 3, which would move us to 5.

Hicks, I tend to agree with you. WCS seems like a safe pick in that at least you know he can defend, although even then I question how he'd handle the heftier Centers. He has that same high center of gravity and thin frame that Gorgui sports, although he seems a lot more athletic. But #4, 5 or 6 is an awfully high pick to go the safe route, with a guy that will never be a very good offensive player?

If we end up somewhere in that 4-6 range, which is very possible - almost probable at this point - then the guy that creeps onto my radar is Mario Hezonja. He's getting it done in the second toughest professional league in the world and doesn't turn 20 until this week.

[Q12543 [enjin:6621299]]

Good stuff LST. I agree that that Lakers, Knicks, and Sixers are all in on the tank for the rest of the year and will surpass us in terms of lottery positioning. I'm a little disappointed in the Sixers, which really was a team playing quite well. But by trading their starting PG and one of their better role players, they pretty much waved the white flag. The Lakers and Knicks are just pathetic franchises at the moment.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

But I picked our win total to be in the 27-30 range!

Yeah, I know Tim...and I had 'em at 25. But that was before Shabazz went down for the season and AB for at least 2 weeks. 22 looks about right now. What does the KOM say post-injuries?