Free Agency

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

The Twins signed right-handed relief pitcher Joe Smith to a one-year deal worth $2.5M, according to the Star Tribune. To make room on the roster, Kenta Maeda was placed on the 60-day IL.

Looks like Smith had two different seasons last year. He was pretty bad, and unlucky, with the Astros to begin the year and was later picked up by the Mariners where he had much better success. Prior to the deal, he had an ERA of 7.48 with a measly 16.5% strikeout rate, though his 3.9% walk rate was excellent. As a Mariner, his ERA was an even 2.00 and his strikeout rate jumped to 24.3% with his walk rate nudging up only slightly to 5.7%. Those are small samples, but the brief stint with the Astros in the first months of last year seems to be the outlier here, as the rest of Smith's ledger is very strong. Also, Smith's batting average on balls in play was .413 before the deal and .229 after. Given his career BABIP of .276, it seems possible to attribute his first-half numbers to poor fortune.

This pickup appears to be a solid one, especially for a bullpen that looks to be made up of a lot of young arms. His veteran presence, assuming he's also effective, will be welcomed this year.

[Monster]

The Twins signed right-handed relief pitcher Joe Smith to a one-year deal worth $2.5M, according to the Star Tribune. To make room on the roster, Kenta Maeda was placed on the 60-day IL.

Looks like Smith had two different seasons last year. He was pretty bad, and unlucky, with the Astros to begin the year and was later picked up by the Mariners where he had much better success. Prior to the deal, he had an ERA of 7.48 with a measly 16.5% strikeout rate, though his 3.9% walk rate was excellent. As a Mariner, his ERA was an even 2.00 and his strikeout rate jumped to 24.3% with his walk rate nudging up only slightly to 5.7%. Those are small samples, but the brief stint with the Astros in the first months of last year seems to be the outlier here, as the rest of Smith's ledger is very strong. Also, Smith's batting average on balls in play was .413 before the deal and .229 after. Given his career BABIP of .276, it seems possible to attribute his first-half numbers to poor fortune.

This pickup appears to be a solid one, especially for a bullpen that looks to be made up of a lot of young arms. His veteran presence, assuming he's also effective, will be welcomed this year.

I'm cool with this deal as long as Glen Taylor had nothing to do with the contract. I think Joe Smith could help this roster rebound...

[Monster]

I tend to think any trade for Frankie Montas (or Sean Manaea) would involve cost-controlled but MLB-ready prospects. That means the group of Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, Jose Miranda, Joe Ryan, Josh Winder, Drew Strotman, Jordan Balazovic, Jhoan Duran, Matt Canterino, Royce Lewis, and Austin Martin. Some combination of these players is what I think will get it done.

Obviously, it's unlikely the Twins will part with Kirilloff or Ryan from that group as they appear built into the big league's plans this upcoming season, but anyone else on this list is likely up for discussion.

That means Minnesota will likely hold on to Max Kepler and Luis Arraez this upcoming season barring something unforeseen. I would construct a batting lineup against right-handed pitchers to look something like:

1. Luis Arraez, DH
2. Jorge Polanco, 2B
3. Carlos Correa, SS
4. Byron Buxton, CF
5. Alex Kirilloff, LF
6. Miguel Sano, 1B
7. Max Kepler, RF
8. Gio Urshela, 3B
9. Ryan Jeffers, C

It seems like I have remembered that the A's had reported interest in Kepler in the past. Maybe that's part of why Jester mentioned him as a possible player moved in a deal. Sometimes teams even if they are rebuilding like adding a solid vet they really like. For the Twins it would mean having some advantage of freeing up some salary although it seems they continue to like/value Kepler. On the other hand I would guess unless they now feel good about Gordon or someone else (maybe another minor league signing or something) stepping into CF if Buxton was hurt they may want to keep Kepler around since...it seems like they are gonna try and win this year and stuff.

It seems that at this point Lewis isn't considered the top level prospect he used to be so unless some team really values him highly he probably isn't going to get moved. Meanwhile is Miranda a legit prospect or did he have a really nice year? Idk regardless I think most of us would agree the Twins have some reasonably intriguing prospects to move in deals and I won't mind seeing some of them go if needed...until I find out which ones are moved! Lol

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

I don't see Oakland wanting 29-year old Max Kepler and the three years left he has under contract given that they're rebuilding. What value would Kepler give them? Not much.

[Monster]

I don't see Oakland wanting 29-year old Max Kepler and the three years left he has under contract given that they're rebuilding. What value would Kepler give them? Not much.

I don't really disagree with you much but I've seen teams do similar things when making deals. Regardless I don't see Kepter as a big bargaining chip in a deal. Still a team could acquire him and flip him if he has a nice few months. It seemed like last trade deadline there was some level of interest in adding him since he can play CF.

I think the question IF the A's did or still do have any interest in Kepler is whether their interest or value is more or even remotely equal to what the Twins value him at. It's possible that to get another starting pitcher the Twins give up another prospect that's farther from being able to contribute to the big league club similar to what they did with Petty for Gray. I'm gonna sit back and enjoy the ride. They clearly aren't done and seem to have had a few things in the works for a while. What will be next?

[Jester1534]

I don't see Oakland wanting 29-year old Max Kepler and the three years left he has under contract given that they're rebuilding. What value would Kepler give them? Not much.

Kepler is tough one for me because if they do ban shifting in 2023 he has a chance to become a .270 plus hitter. I attribute him being a German born player for not being able to make adjustments because let's be honest it's a miracle he's even at where he's at now.

Kepler is one of just five hitters during his time in the majors to be shifted for more than 90 percent of his pitches. He's hit .212 when shifted against, including a .220 BABIP. Defenses know exactly where his balls in play are going.

Kepler always makes contact it's just always right into the shift.

[Jester1534]

Duran threw two scoreless today and hit 100 mph with his sinker today with a 77 mph curveball.

From Park twitter today

Rocco hints that Jhoan Duran could fill a bullpen role with his big stuff:

"I can see him being a guy that fits in different roles for us, too, going forward. It may not be he just goes out there and he's starting. I think he could fit in some shorter stints."

Won't be shocked if Duran becomes a bullpen
arm with his durability issues the last couple years. I could see him opening up with the team has a bullpen arm.

[FNG]

I tend to think any trade for Frankie Montas (or Sean Manaea) would involve cost-controlled but MLB-ready prospects. That means the group of Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, Jose Miranda, Joe Ryan, Josh Winder, Drew Strotman, Jordan Balazovic, Jhoan Duran, Matt Canterino, Royce Lewis, and Austin Martin. Some combination of these players is what I think will get it done.

Obviously, it's unlikely the Twins will part with Kirilloff or Ryan from that group as they appear built into the big league's plans this upcoming season, but anyone else on this list is likely up for discussion.

That means Minnesota will likely hold on to Max Kepler and Luis Arraez this upcoming season barring something unforeseen. I would construct a batting lineup against right-handed pitchers to look something like:

1. Luis Arraez, DH
2. Jorge Polanco, 2B
3. Carlos Correa, SS
4. Byron Buxton, CF
5. Alex Kirilloff, LF
6. Miguel Sano, 1B
7. Max Kepler, RF
8. Gio Urshela, 3B
9. Ryan Jeffers, C

It seems like I have remembered that the A's had reported interest in Kepler in the past. Maybe that's part of why Jester mentioned him as a possible player moved in a deal. Sometimes teams even if they are rebuilding like adding a solid vet they really like. For the Twins it would mean having some advantage of freeing up some salary although it seems they continue to like/value Kepler. On the other hand I would guess unless they now feel good about Gordon or someone else (maybe another minor league signing or something) stepping into CF if Buxton was hurt they may want to keep Kepler around since...it seems like they are gonna try and win this year and stuff.

It seems that at this point Lewis isn't considered the top level prospect he used to be so unless some team really values him highly he probably isn't going to get moved. Meanwhile is Miranda a legit prospect or did he have a really nice year? Idk regardless I think most of us would agree the Twins have some reasonably intriguing prospects to move in deals and I won't mind seeing some of them go if needed...until I find out which ones are moved! Lol

Monster, fair question regarding Miranda, because his stats were mediocre before last year. I guess I believe in him for two reasons. First, he was incredibly consistent all season...both at AA and after being promoted to AAA. Almost 600 plate appearances, and his average never wavered much from the .345 mark. Second, I love his approach to hitting. He's quite aggressive with less than 2 strikes, but he dials it back with two strikes in an effort to put the ball in play. He's only 23, but I think there's a good chance he's for real.

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

I don't think it's unthinkable for Carlos Correa to opt out after this season and wind up re-signing with the Twins for something like $245M over seven years, $35M annually. Minnesota's books are really clean moving forward. I could even see including one opt out clause after the third year. Essentially, they'd have Correa and Byron Buxton locked into the same timeline and could build around those two for the foreseeable future.

[Monster]

I don't think it's unthinkable for Carlos Correa to opt out after this season and wind up re-signing with the Twins for something like $245M over seven years, $35M annually. Minnesota's books are really clean moving forward. I could even see including one opt out clause after the third year. Essentially, they'd have Correa and Byron Buxton locked into the same timeline and could build around those two for the foreseeable future.

It's fun to thing about that's for sure.

The Twins do seem hesitant to had out a deal that long. I think one thing that would help them be willing to do a lengthy deal is if Correa is healthy this year. It might also be interesting for both the Twins and Correa to see how the new CBA affects salaries etc. it's possible IF salaries start going up 35 million a year might look like a pretty good value for Correa if he is healthy and continues to produce. Anyway this year should be fun.