Minnesota Sports Forum

FNG, There is no way on God's green earth that Rosas would give up Ant for Simmons and there would be an insurrection by 90% of the fans. Are you kidding!?

While Ant is hardly a sure thing, the sheer upside he has and flashes of brilliance (more than flashes in fact) he showed in the second half of last season as a teenager is simply too risky to give up on for a player like Simmons.

If we have another disappointing season, the guy who is likely to be shipped out ultimately is KAT (followed by DLO at some point). Ant is more than likely the guy we end up re-re-re-re-building around.

Q, I agree with you that there is no chance Rosas will give up Edwards for Simmons. And based on what I read into your posts, I think we are in agreement that this roster as currently constructed is quite unlikely to threaten to make the playoffs...again (although you may contradict this in a couple weeks when the wins prediction thread comes out). And I agree that, although I think 90% of the fan base is too high, a majority of the Wolves' fan base would be unhappy if Rosas gave up our promising 20-year-old for the best defender in the league. And that sums up one of the big problems with the Minnesota sports market...we're unabashed homers. We love, protect and overvalue our own. That's how we end up with a Ryan Saunders as a head coach! I mean really...would he have become a head coach in any other market? We're unique here, and the forgiving nature of our fan base is one of the reasons we have been arguably the worst franchise of the past 2 decades.

Maybe Ant turns out to be a terrific player, and a perennial All-Star and All-NBA Defense guy like the player Rosas won't trade him for. Maybe. Or maybe his ceiling is more at the Zach Lavine level...a flashy offensive star whose struggles on the defensive end don't allow him to consistently have a positive impact on the court. Let's look at reality right now.

1) Most of the posters here preferred Wiseman over Ant in last year's draft (for the record, I strongly preferred Ant) because of flaws Ant showed in college. And some of those flaws...poor shot selection, inefficient scoring and indifferent defense...were on display in his rookie year.

2) We talk about Ant's improvement in the second half, and he certainly did improve. But some of the tale of two halves is due to what was actually a very poor first 2 months for Ant. But was it really a great second half? He certainly scored a lot of points...23.8 per game was impressive. But although his 3-point shooting improved (and was far better than the 29% he shot in college), it still was only 34.9 %...a couple points below the average percentage for shooting guards, and his TS% the second half was only average for SGs.

3) Further, his ORtg and Drtg, while improved in the second half, were still quite poor: 108 and 117 respectively. In conttrast, Simmons ratings his rookie year were 111 and 102, and his career numbers are an impressive 113 and 105.

So you're correct...Rosas will not consider swapping the 2 former first round picks. But the numbers above are quite revealing I think. And not being willing to consider giving up Ant for Simmons defines why this franchise continues to struggle. Simmons has been all-NBA 4 of his first 5 years. Does anyone believe in five years we will make the same statement about Ant?

(I'm now going to go find shelter because I'll be facing a barrage of incoming fire for the unpardonable sin of suggesting Simmons might be better than Edwards!)

FNG wrote:Q, I agree with you that there is no chance Rosas will give up Edwards for Simmons. And based on what I read into your posts, I think we are in agreement that this roster as currently constructed is quite unlikely to threaten to make the playoffs...again (although you may contradict this in a couple weeks when the wins prediction thread comes out). And I agree that, although I think 90% of the fan base is too high, a majority of the Wolves' fan base would be unhappy if Rosas gave up our promising 20-year-old for the best defender in the league. And that sums up one of the big problems with the Minnesota sports market...we're unabashed homers. We love, protect and overvalue our own. That's how we end up with a Ryan Saunders as a head coach! I mean really...would he have become a head coach in any other market? We're unique here, and the forgiving nature of our fan base is one of the reasons we have been arguably the worst franchise of the past 2 decades.

Maybe Ant turns out to be a terrific player, and a perennial All-Star and All-NBA Defense guy like the player Rosas won't trade him for. Maybe. Or maybe his ceiling is more at the Zach Lavine level...a flashy offensive star whose struggles on the defensive end don't allow him to consistently have a positive impact on the court. Let's look at reality right now.

1) Most of the posters here preferred Wiseman over Ant in last year's draft (for the record, I strongly preferred Ant) because of flaws Ant showed in college. And some of those flaws...poor shot selection, inefficient scoring and indifferent defense...were on display in his rookie year.

2) We talk about Ant's improvement in the second half, and he certainly did improve. But some of the tale of two halves is due to what was actually a very poor first 2 months for Ant. But was it really a great second half? He certainly scored a lot of points...23.8 per game was impressive. But although his 3-point shooting improved (and was far better than the 29% he shot in college), it still was only 34.9 %...a couple points below the average percentage for shooting guards, and his TS% the second half was only average for SGs.

3) Further, his ORtg and Drtg, while improved in the second half, were still quite poor: 108 and 117 respectively. In conttrast, Simmons ratings his rookie year were 111 and 102, and his career numbers are an impressive 113 and 105.

So you're correct...Rosas will not consider swapping the 2 former first round picks. But the numbers above are quite revealing I think. And not being willing to consider giving up Ant for Simmons defines why this franchise continues to struggle. Simmons has been all-NBA 4 of his first 5 years. Does anyone believe in five years we will make the same statement about Ant?

(I'm now going to go find shelter because I'll be facing a barrage of incoming fire for the unpardonable sin of suggesting Simmons might be better than Edwards!)

Wolves fans are homers for believing Edwards could be a special player but FNG is a rational evidence based guy that believes Simmons could improve his shooting because we are MN nice. Gotta love it.

Well, I was one of the folks pining for Wiseman and dead set against Ant. To this day, I'm still occasionally coughing up crow feathers. I thought I was proven right early on until Wiseman fizzled out to a large degree and Ant became Donovan Mitchell 2.0 in the second half of the season.

The thing about contending is that it is REALLY hard to win if you don't have an alpha-dog on offense that can handle the ball and initiate offense from the perimeter. While Ant may not be the most efficient player yet, he puts a huge amount of pressure on a defense with his ability to get into the paint, which in turn creates more efficient shots for everyone that plays with him, whether it's Vando in the dunker's spot or Beasley spotting up for an open corner 3. And that's what really matters.

The problem with Simmons is he will never be that guy. We know that already. And KAT really isn't that guy either. How often have we lamented over the years about his lack of touches late in games? Well, part of that is he's a big man and it requires more elaborate sets to get him crunch time shots. With Ant, you can just go 5 out and clear everyone out.

Bottom line is that if you believe Ant is destined to be a no-defense volume scorer that settles way too much for pull up jumpers and lazy defense, you will ultimately be right - Simmons is a better player than that version of Ant. But if he simply builds on his second half of last season - even just to a modest degree - he will already be a more valuable piece to the puzzle than Simmons could be.

I grow tired of us leaning on late season improvement as a justification for a player. Last year it was Culver. This year it's DLO and Ant. Show me something in November-December when it really matters, long before the Wolves are out of contention.

CoolBreeze44 wrote:I grow tired of us leaning on late season improvement as a justification for a player. Last year it was Culver. This year it's DLO and Ant. Show me something in November-December when it really matters, long before the Wolves are out of contention.

18.7 ppg
6.5 apg
43.5% fg
37.6% 3fg

Considering his defense... that's STILL not good enough for D. Russell. It's not bad. It's sorta good, especially in only about 28 mpg. But if that's the ceiling for the guy... obviously, it's still not good enough.

As for Edwards... I was a big negative nelly on him early when he was literally the worst every game rotational player in the league for nearly half the season. BUT... I can't remember such growth within the same season for a rookie. It was ridiculous just how huge the splits are with him the second half of the season. So, because he was a rookie with only one year of college transitioning to the NBA amid Covid, I'm giving his awful start a pass. Hopefully, he continues to improve... and it starts right away this season.

CoolBreeze44 wrote:I grow tired of us leaning on late season improvement as a justification for a player. Last year it was Culver. This year it's DLO and Ant. Show me something in November-December when it really matters, long before the Wolves are out of contention.

Cool - I agree that we need to see the improvement play out in November-December.

But there's no comparison between Culver and Edwards. We all noticed the statistical improvement from Culver at the end of the 2019-20 season. But I don't think any of us were particularly excited about it. I know I wasn't. I never thought much of him coming out of college and I never saw anything extraordinary in his game. In contrast, Edwards was a consensus top 3 pick leading up to the draft. He is freakishly gifted and inter-dimensionally more talented than Culver. Edwards progressed markedly during his rookie season and did so without a meaningful training camp. The differences between Culver and Edwards are so enormous that I don't think it's a good comparison to illustrate your point.

I'm with you on not expecting much from DLO. That's not to say he won't improve. He's talented and young enough to take a big step forward. Unfortunately, he has a 5 year NBA trace record of being the player no other team wanted to keep. Nevertheless, I'll note that DLO has improved statistically over his career. He jumped from 15.5 points per game in his 3rd season to 21.1 in his 4th and then averaged 23 PPG the following two season. His 3-point shooting improved markedly in his 4th season (from 32.4% to 36.9%) and it took another significant jump last season to 38.7%. His defensive has remained horrible, although it was respectable in the 2018-19 season.

So, like you, I'll be looking to see what Edwards and DLO are doing in November-December. The proof is in the pudding and so far we've just seen the ingredients. But I think it's more than fair and reasonable to expect Edwards to play at least at the level he was at late last season and probably improve at least a little beyond that. My expectations for DLO are far more tempered. But we'll see. The talent is there and maybe Chris Finch, Elston Turner and Patrick Beverley can light a fire under DLO defensively. In my ideal world, the Wolves move DLO and assets (other than KAT, Edwards, Beasley or Jaden) for Simmons. Obviously, that would mean giving up some unprotected 1st-round draft picks. Even then, I don't see it happening. So we better hope that Edwards continues to improve and that KAT returns to his former iron-man status.

monsterpile wrote:

FNG wrote:Q, I agree with you that there is no chance Rosas will give up Edwards for Simmons. And based on what I read into your posts, I think we are in agreement that this roster as currently constructed is quite unlikely to threaten to make the playoffs...again (although you may contradict this in a couple weeks when the wins prediction thread comes out). And I agree that, although I think 90% of the fan base is too high, a majority of the Wolves' fan base would be unhappy if Rosas gave up our promising 20-year-old for the best defender in the league. And that sums up one of the big problems with the Minnesota sports market...we're unabashed homers. We love, protect and overvalue our own. That's how we end up with a Ryan Saunders as a head coach! I mean really...would he have become a head coach in any other market? We're unique here, and the forgiving nature of our fan base is one of the reasons we have been arguably the worst franchise of the past 2 decades.

Maybe Ant turns out to be a terrific player, and a perennial All-Star and All-NBA Defense guy like the player Rosas won't trade him for. Maybe. Or maybe his ceiling is more at the Zach Lavine level...a flashy offensive star whose struggles on the defensive end don't allow him to consistently have a positive impact on the court. Let's look at reality right now.

1) Most of the posters here preferred Wiseman over Ant in last year's draft (for the record, I strongly preferred Ant) because of flaws Ant showed in college. And some of those flaws...poor shot selection, inefficient scoring and indifferent defense...were on display in his rookie year.

2) We talk about Ant's improvement in the second half, and he certainly did improve. But some of the tale of two halves is due to what was actually a very poor first 2 months for Ant. But was it really a great second half? He certainly scored a lot of points...23.8 per game was impressive. But although his 3-point shooting improved (and was far better than the 29% he shot in college), it still was only 34.9 %...a couple points below the average percentage for shooting guards, and his TS% the second half was only average for SGs.

3) Further, his ORtg and Drtg, while improved in the second half, were still quite poor: 108 and 117 respectively. In conttrast, Simmons ratings his rookie year were 111 and 102, and his career numbers are an impressive 113 and 105.

So you're correct...Rosas will not consider swapping the 2 former first round picks. But the numbers above are quite revealing I think. And not being willing to consider giving up Ant for Simmons defines why this franchise continues to struggle. Simmons has been all-NBA 4 of his first 5 years. Does anyone believe in five years we will make the same statement about Ant?

(I'm now going to go find shelter because I'll be facing a barrage of incoming fire for the unpardonable sin of suggesting Simmons might be better than Edwards!)

Wolves fans are homers for believing Edwards could be a special player but FNG is a rational evidence based guy that believes Simmons could improve his shooting because we are MN nice. Gotta love it.

Not exactly, monster. While I'm saying there's a chance Simmons could become a better (or more willing) shooter once he gets out of the Philly pressure cooker, he doesn't have to get better to still be an all-NBA player...he already is! Ant on the other hand needs to get much better at both ends of the court to be all-NBA, because there are plenty of no-defense inefficient wings out there competing with him. From what I've seen from Ant in college and his rookie year, I'm not convinced there's any more chance of his becoming a good defender as there is Simmons becoming a good shooter...they're both a crap shoot. Let me ask you these questions:

1) Simmons career Ortg and Drtg are 113 and 105, respectively, while Ant was almost the opposite in his rookie season... worse than Simmons on offense, much worse on defense. Do you think there is much of a chance Ant will be anywhere near 113 and 105 after his 4th season?

2) Simmons has been selected to the all NBA team in 3 of his 4 seasons. How likely do you think it is that Ant will be recognized by the experts as All Pro his next three seasons?

If you feel confident in answering both questions, then by all means keep Ant and don't bring in Simmons. But if you're not confident (as I'm not), I'm going to take the All-NBA guy every time over a guy we can only hope reaches his level.

As I've said, try to pry Simmons away from Philly for a lesser price tag. But if Ant is the ultimate price tag, Rosas would be guilty of malpractice if he didn't pull the trigger.

Monster, as an addendum to my previous post, I think we have to take a hard look at what is holding this team back...and it ain't offense. Even with an improved defensive KAT and an impressive Jaden last year, we still ranked near the bottom of the league in defense...again. And we're kidding ourselves if we think just the addition of a 32-year-old reserve (whom I like a lot by the way) is going to magically transform our defense. And frankly more minutes from Dlo and Beasley is not the formula for an improved defense...it's easier to make a case for our defense actually getting worse next season. We can do what we do every year and justify why we're going to be better on defense this year, but it's simply not going to happen without the right personnel...something Rosas has not done and adequate job of providing. And here we have a unique opportunity to bring in a player most coaches call the most dominant defender in the league. It's folly to want to keep a guy who shot 29% on threes in college while playing sub-par defense when we have a chance to add a guy like Simmons. I love Ant, but he's never going to be All-Pro as many times as Simmons will...if we're honest, we have to admit that. Rosas can't overthink this...the solution to our defensive failures is staring him in the face.

FNG wrote:Monster, as an addendum to my previous post, I think we have to take a hard look at what is holding this team back...and it ain't offense. Even with an improved defensive KAT and an impressive Jaden last year, we still ranked near the bottom of the league in defense...again. And we're kidding ourselves if we think just the addition of a 32-year-old reserve (whom I like a lot by the way) is going to magically transform our defense. And frankly more minutes from Dlo and Beasley is not the formula for an improved defense...it's easier to make a case for our defense actually getting worse next season. We can do what we do every year and justify why we're going to be better on defense this year, but it's simply not going to happen without the right personnel...something Rosas has not done and adequate job of providing. And here we have a unique opportunity to bring in a player most coaches call the most dominant defender in the league. It's folly to want to keep a guy who shot 29% on threes in college while playing sub-par defense when we have a chance to add a guy like Simmons. I love Ant, but he's never going to be All-Pro as many times as Simmons will...if we're honest, we have to admit that. Rosas can't overthink this...the solution to our defensive failures is staring him in the face.

"I love Ant, but he's never going to be All-Pro as many times as Simmons will...if we're honest, we have to admit that."

Idk man for one thing Ant said he is good at football so I think he has a better chance at being "all pro" than Simmons. :)

I LOVE how confident you are in making these absolute projections and then telling people they are homers for considering anyone with the Wolves or the team as a whole taking some sort of meaningful leap.

Idk if you have looked at the Wolves stats last year but...guess what? They were actually a bad offensive team last season. Oh and the year before too. Since nothing much has changed from last season I assume you will tell us to get another hobby instead of watching the Wolves as they will be bad on that end also.