Minnesota Sports Forum

GymRat wrote:Khans, all you're really saying is that the field has a better chance to win than #1, which is true. But #1 still has the best chance out of all the positions. We are absolutely and undeniably more likely to win the lottery in that spot. History doesn't mean anything in a game of chance.

There is no statistical backing that the extra 5% makes a difference. At the end of the day the only thing that matters is winning the lottery. If the 5% mattered it would be statistically supported throughout the history of the draft which it isn't. Yes it is a game of chance, but a system of chance repeated over time has statistical evidence that shows the 5% doesn't matter. If it was statistically significant, it would have made a difference over time which it hasn't.

Getting the most ping pong balls means we get a top-four pick. Forget about the top overall pick for now. That can be won by a number of teams because it's random. You guarantee yourself top-four with worst record. I want that.

longstrangetrip wrote:That's a good explanation, zig...especially if you think it's a 4-player draft. In addition, I've recently jumped on the Towns bandwagon, and with Jackson indicating he covets him, I think it's important that we finish behind the Knicks.

Khans-I recognize that the 1st seed has ended up with the first pick far less than the odds would predict. But I still believe in statistics in the long run, and the team with the most ping pong balls has a 25% chance of getting the first pick, while the team with the second most only has a 20% chance. I want that 5% edge, and that's why I'm still lamenting that worthless win in NY last month.

I'm kinda torn on this whole thing. On one hand we should want the top seed b/c of the 25% chance, but on the other hand it wins the top pick far less often. I just hope we can come away one of these outcomes:

1) We win the top pick
2) A team coveting one of the guards wins, takes Towns and flip him to the Wolves for their coveted player.
3) The team(s) that leapfrog us just take their coveted guy having Towns slip a spot or 2.

Either way I want the Knicks to draft after us and if I had to pick 1 team to leapfrog, the Sixers might be our best bet at a trade partner (with us trying to get Towns) if we don't get #1.

Camden0916 wrote:Getting the most ping pong balls means we get a top-four pick. Forget about the top overall pick for now. That can be won by a number of teams because it's random. You guarantee yourself top-four with worst record. I want that.

Totally agree. If we get a top 4 pick we have great options.

GymRat wrote:Khans, all you're really saying is that the field has a better chance to win than #1, which is true. But #1 still has the best chance out of all the positions. We are absolutely and undeniably more likely to win the lottery in that spot. History doesn't mean anything in a game of chance.

There is no statistical backing that the extra 5% makes a difference. At the end of the day the only thing that matters is winning the lottery. If the 5% mattered it would be statistically supported throughout the history of the draft which it isn't. Yes it is a game of chance, but a system of chance repeated over time has statistical evidence that shows the 5% doesn't matter. If it was statistically significant, it would have made a difference over time which it hasn't.

I don't disagree with your premise that anecdotal evidence suggests we are better off not finishing last, but I disagree that 30 observations in a 14-outcome (1000 total outcomes) weighted lottery is statistically significant. The worst team winning the lottery this year would raise the occurrence from 3/30 (10%) to 4/31(12.9%), a 3% shift in rate. That's too volatile.

In any case, the odds of us drafting top 3 with the 1 pick is 64% versus 56% at 2. I know most people care about top 4, but being stuck with what's left in the top tier isn't exactly desirable. Yet I don't see us actually finishing last so it's probably not worth the argument of who would be left.

The Lakers could end up losing their first round pick. Right now they are 4th worst. That would suck terribly for them. The 76ers could easily have two top 8 picks. They could add Mudiay/Russell then add Winslow/Johnson. They would be loaded provided Embiid stays healthy. That's a huge caveat however.

Camden0916 wrote:Getting the most ping pong balls means we get a top-four pick. Forget about the top overall pick for now. That can be won by a number of teams because it's random. You guarantee yourself top-four with worst record. I want that.

That's the best well thought out argument for wanting your team to lose I have heard this season. Serious.

monsterpile wrote:

Camden0916 wrote:Getting the most ping pong balls means we get a top-four pick. Forget about the top overall pick for now. That can be won by a number of teams because it's random. You guarantee yourself top-four with worst record. I want that.

That's the best well thought out argument for wanting your team to lose I have heard this season. Serious.

I know it sounds odd, but would you rather be Boston or us? Boston may make the playoffs, but they have no shot at a title. They have nice players on their roster, but no franchise guys. I would rather be great or horrible than mediocre. Get a future star with a top pick instead of another role player if you are lucky in the middle of the draft.

TRKO wrote:

monsterpile wrote:
That's the best well thought out argument for wanting your team to lose I have heard this season. Serious.

I know it sounds odd, but would you rather be Boston or us? Boston may make the playoffs, but they have no shot at a title. They have nice players on their roster, but no franchise guys. I would rather be great or horrible than mediocre. Get a future star with a top pick instead of another role player if you are lucky in the middle of the draft.

Right now? Us.
Next year? Boston

TheGrey08 wrote:

TRKO wrote:

monsterpile wrote:
That's the best well thought out argument for wanting your team to lose I have heard this season. Serious.

I know it sounds odd, but would you rather be Boston or us? Boston may make the playoffs, but they have no shot at a title. They have nice players on their roster, but no franchise guys. I would rather be great or horrible than mediocre. Get a future star with a top pick instead of another role player if you are lucky in the middle of the draft.

Right now? Us.
Next year? Boston

Explain. I'll take Wiggins and our first pick with Rubio and LaVine happily.