Draft Night Thread - First Round

[Lipoli390]

I'd say it definitely sounds like there are players he wants in the 2nd round.

I'd guess there was like at least half the league that tried to move up to take a player at some point in the first round but they couldn't get it done. Idk if I would get too wrapped up in the fact that they liked some guys that fell and couldn't get them. I mean how aggressive were they really trying to move up? We likely will never know.

Interesting news that they really did want to move up into the 1st round.

A couple other takeaways from the Connelly interview:

- To Lip's point, Tim C. and others spent a few hours with Ant a couple weeks ago going through their offseason plans. I'm pretty sure he didn't pushback much on the Randle trade, LOL.

- They are VERY excited about Joan. There is no question in my mind he will be Rudy's full-time backup Center this season. He also mentioned that we may be surprised by his blossoming offensive game when we see him play in Summer League.

- Mentioned that TJ was a revelation late last season and how he can operate from the top of the floor. Sorry, but that should not be a revelation! They should have known that he needed the ball in his hands starting when they drafted him two years ago and watched him in Summer League. And they were reminded again in his pre-season stints this past season.

- He was pretty cagey on the need for a ball handler. He acknowledged the need, but also hedged a bit by saying the PG position is evolving in the NBA and there aren't many true PGs in the West. On the one hand, I think he is leaving the door open for a starting-caliber ball handler (e.g. Irving, Giddey, etc.). On the other hand (my third hand!), he's expecting more play making from the likes of Ant, Naz, Jaden, and Ayo. To be continued......

TC is not everyone's bag of tea (obviously!), but I really like the guy. A couple of other thoughts:

- On the TJ revelation, I don't think it is so much a "revelation" as "we finally got to see it in action against real competition". He was really BAD when he finally got back from his injury trying to work his way back into a good rhythm. It was the Donte injury that opened the door for him and he took advantage.

- On the ball handler stuff - I don't think they are looking to bring in a "starting caliber" ball handler. Who are they bumping out of the lineup if they do that? It will be a cheaper, rotational guy.

- They do need find a rotational BIG behind NAZ. But again, that will not be an expensive proposition.

- This leads me to believe that the Wolves will be successful in staying under the luxury tax, while still fielding a contending team, and avoid the repeater tax penalty. This is quite the accomplishment by TC, even if we don't see the benefit in our pocket books.

- In commenting about managing the salaries, TC mentioned "taking into account guys that need to re-up next year". There's really only one guy that fits that category: Donte. And since they can avoid the luxury tax while still keeping him, why not keep Donte, with the idea of extending at some point?

I find it really hard not to like TC. After listening to him in this presser, I’m no longer convinced the Wolves are poised to make a big deal involving either Rudy or the $33M trade exception. Like you, I think TC is going to make smaller moves to fill in around the young core he’s clearly counting on to improve. It’s the “gap year” approach Kyle talked about on a Dane Moore Podcast a couple days ago. Accordingly, while I don’t think TC intends to stay below the luxury tax threshold, I do think he’s determined to stay below the 1st apron to preserve transactional flexibility. Including Ayo’s new contract, we are currently about $26 million under the luxury tax threshold and $34 million under the 1st apron with five roster spots to fill to reach the 14 minimum. If we use the full $15M MLE, the full $5.478M BAE, the $1.358M rookie minimum for our 33rd pick, and the $2.454M vet minimum for a 2+ year player, that would total an additional $24.286M one roster slot to fill. If we used the $2.45M vet minimum for that last roster spot I think we’d be slightly over the luxury tax threshold but around $7.3M under the 1st apron. So maybe we stay under the luxury tax threshold, but more likely we’ll end up just over it assuming we don’t use the trade exception or make a trade that brings back significantly more salary than we send out.

My sense is the organization is intent on staying below the 1st apron. If they take the conservative approach I outlined above, they’ll likely end up just over the luxury tax threshold but significantly below the 1st apron, giving them room to add a 15th player or make a trade for more incoming salary before the deadline without hitting the first apron. I don’t think the Wolves can use the full trade exception and fill out the roster without clearing more cap space - i.e., inducing a team to take Donte or maybe trading TSJ for a pick. The full trade exception of $33M would put the Wolves only about $3 million below the 1st apron, which would be a hard cap, with 4 roster spots to fill. So if the Wolves decide to get more aggressive this summer and bring in a high-priced consequential player, I think they’ll probably have to trade Rudy.

[TheGrey08]

I find it really hard not to like TC. After listening to him in this presser, I’m no longer convinced the Wolves are poised to make a big deal involving either Rudy or the $33M trade exception. Like you, I think TC is going to make smaller moves to fill in around the young core he’s clearly counting on to improve. It’s the “gap year” approach Kyle talked about on a Dane Moore Podcast a couple days ago. Accordingly, while I don’t think TC intends to stay below the luxury tax threshold, I do think he’s determined to stay below the 1st apron to preserve transactional flexibility. Including Ayo’s new contract, we are currently about $26 million under the luxury tax threshold and $34 million under the 1st apron with five roster spots to fill to reach the 14 minimum. If we use the full $15M MLE, the full $5.478M BAE, the $1.358M rookie minimum for our 33rd pick, and the $2.454M vet minimum for a 2+ year player, that would total an additional $24.286M one roster slot to fill. If we used the $2.45M vet minimum for that last roster spot I think we’d be slightly over the luxury tax threshold but around $7.3M under the 1st apron. So maybe we stay under the luxury tax threshold, but more likely we’ll end up just over it assuming we don’t use the trade exception or make a trade that brings back significantly more salary than we send out.

My sense is the organization is intent on staying below the 1st apron. If they take the conservative approach I outlined above, they’ll likely end up just over the luxury tax threshold but significantly below the 1st apron, giving them room to add a 15th player or make a trade for more incoming salary before the deadline without hitting the first apron. I don’t think the Wolves can use the full trade exception and fill out the roster without clearing more cap space - i.e., inducing a team to take Donte or maybe trading TSJ for a pick. The full trade exception of $33M would put the Wolves only about $3 million below the 1st apron, which would be a hard cap, with 4 roster spots to fill. So if the Wolves decide to get more aggressive this summer and bring in a high-priced consequential player, I think they’ll probably have to trade Rudy.

One big takeaway from his presser for me was that they're not against going over the apron, but will not just do it to do it. It has to be a significant acquisition that is worth doing so. Being patient with the trade exception is probably wise (unless a key piece becomes available by July) when there is a good chance someone will want to get off a sub 33m contract at the trade deadline.