khans2k5 wrote:longstrangetrip wrote:khans2k5 wrote:longstrangetrip wrote:For the first time all season the Wolves have the inside track for the 1st seed. The scheduling gods are shining on us. We are currently tied with the Knicks, but the Knicks are much more likely than us to win one of their final games. They are at Atlanta, who has no incentive to play its starters having locked up first place in the East, and home to Detroit. If Atlanta rests its starters, both of these games are winnable. OTOH, the Wolves are home to two teams (NO and OkC) who are desperate to win as they are tied for the 8th playoff spot. That fact combined with the Wolves only playing 7 guys gives us little chance of winning. Right now I am predicting that the Wolves lose both games, and the Knicks win one of their two to give the Wolves the top seed. This means that we not only get the most ping pong balls, but also will draft ahead of the Knicks unless they do better in the lottery than us. This is critical based on reports that Phil Jackson covets Towns.
As a reminder...if the Wolves instead end up tied with the Knicks, they divide evenly the ping pong balls allocated to the 1st and 2nd seeds giving both teams an even chance of winning the lottery. If neither team wins the lottery, a coin toss determines who drafts before the other.
Bottom line...our chances of being in a position to draft KAT have never been brighter. Zgoda thinks it just as likely that we draft Okafor as Towns if we win the lottery, but I still think Flip will go with Towns.
Getting the 1 seed really only matters for how far we drop if we don't win. The extra ping pong balls haven't really helped that much in the past to actually get the top pick.
We've gone over this one before. Your second sentence is certainly correct, but your first sentence isn't supported by any rule of statistics...it's indisputable that having more ping pong balls gives you a better chance of winning the lottery. Using the experience of the past 20-30 years to form your conclusion is similar to concluding that because heads comes up 6 out of the last 10 times, heads will always come up more frequently. There is no valid statistical basis for concluding that the second seed is as favorable for the Wolves as the first.
And again that 5% hasn't meant jack shit in the history of the draft. This happens every year. People want the extra ping pong balls and then the team with the most ping pong balls doesn't win it. The 1 spot matters for the drop if you don't get the top pick, but it has literally meant nothing in terms of winning it. It's still at most 25% chance at winning it which is why it hasn't meant jack shit because the field still has a 75% chance of beating you. Say it all you want that the 5% matters. It doesn't and hasn't and will not matter enough to keep arguing about why 1 is so much better than 2, 3, etc. It just isn't worth what you say it is or the worst teams in the league would win the draft more. It's like playing the actual lottery. The field is always significantly bigger than you so an extra 5% in your favor isn't worth arguing over. History has no bearing on this year's result, but it clearly shows that the extra 5% doesn't make a bit of damn difference. IT DOES NOT MATTER.
OK, I give up...I'm not going to try to convince someone that just because statistics HAVEN'T mattered in the past (with small sample size), that means they DON'T matter now. Big difference. The rest of this post is intended only for the "statistics believers"..."statistics deniers" can skip to the next post. Since we now know the Wolves will be either the 1st or the 2nd seed, here are what the statistics say for where we will draft:
1st seed: #1 25%, #2 21%, #3 18%, #4 36%
2nd seed: #1 20% #2 19%, #3 17%, #4 32%, #5 12%
I believe in statistics and crave Towns, so I want that 5% better chance of getting the first pick. Secondly, I want a big man, so I appreciate the fact that having the first seed gives us a 46% chance of picking in the top 2, as opposed to only 39% if we are the second seed. Finally, since I have Russell third with Mudiay/Winslow a tier below at 4/5, I like the 64% chance of getting a top 3 pick if we are the top seed, as opposed to only 56% if we are the second seed.
