Minnesota Sports Forum

Camden0916 wrote:You act like Towns didn't just post a TS% of .627 in college...

(Okafor's TS% was .635; not saying Okafor won't be more dominant offensively in the beginning, but if we're talking efficiency... you absolutely must take free throws into account)

Count FTs sure and TS%. But FTM and FGM will matter too as it did to create those numbers. Okafor put up his insane numbers on a larger sample size with less talented bigs next to him. Towns offensive potential is rightly there but it is still much more projection-based than Okafor as I see it. Towns played great, I just would never say that he is a better offensive big than okafor, don't think he ever will be either. That takes nothing away from his potential, its just that Okafor really is one of the most efficient scoring bigs in NCAA history, and projects to continue that.

If Towns was a 16/10 guy with really good defense and Okafor was a 23/8 guy with his MEHH defense, who would you rather have, assuming their TS% was similar?

I think defense is the huge offsetting component in the Towns/Okafor sweepstakes. It'd be different if Okafor was even comparable to Towns on that end, but he's not.

Camden0916 wrote:If Towns was a 16/10 guy with really good defense and Okafor was a 23/8 guy with his MEHH defense, who would you rather have, assuming their TS% was similar?

I think defense is the huge offsetting component in the Towns/Okafor sweepstakes. It'd be different if Okafor was even comparable to Towns on that end, but he's not.

Too limited for me to just say TS= offense in my evaluation. Their usage rate, their all-around offensive skill (footwork, passing), their context (college teammates, how they were used in games) all have to factor in and make Okafor easily the better offensive prospect to me. I really think it is a wash in that I believe Okafor is that much better than Towns on offense. Towns got his college buckets more with athleticism, Okafor got his with really polished, fluid offensive moves. He reminds me of McHale and Duncan in that everything has a purpose. Towns has to learn that still. He may but I don't see the certainty of 16/10. I see a while of 10/10 before putting it together.

*Side note. I do think the context of our team is significant to me. If Rubio could shoot I would be more inclined to lean on the potential of Towns. We desperately need an offensive system. Working inside out helps us immediately have an identity that makes sense. Everyone cuttting around a ball handler who can't shoot scares me.

Ehh.

You realize that Okafor actually goes against what "style" or "identity" we currently have been building, right? Drafting Okafor means we're an inside out, post-up and kick to shooters type offense. Problem is... we don't have shooters. We also could have five players who excel in high-paced action (Rubio, Wiggins, LaVine, Muhammad, Bjelica). Guess which one of the two (Okafor/Towns) is better in transition. It's Towns. He actually had the highest PPP in transition opportunities out of any big in the draft. Okafor just doesn't move well in the open court consistently. Not to mention Okafor doesn't look to be the better P&R big of the two, as a roller and as the "pop out" man. Towns at least gives you the threat of shooting, which should bring a big out of the paint to open up driving lanes for Rubio/Wiggins/LaVine and dip-ins/cuts for Muhammad. For a lot of reasons, Towns makes so much more sense for us on offense AND defense.

Okafor's the better 1v1 player of the two. I don't think anyone's debating that. It's just that he's not the better overall player when compared to Towns. Karl has more check marks than Jahlil. Hopefully Flip agrees.

(Would be thrilled to come away with either, but if we're looking to choose the best between the two, there's what I believe.)

Camden0916 wrote:If Towns was a 16/10 guy with really good defense and Okafor was a 23/8 guy with his MEHH defense, who would you rather have, assuming their TS% was similar?

I think defense is the huge offsetting component in the Towns/Okafor sweepstakes. It'd be different if Okafor was even comparable to Towns on that end, but he's not.

I think we have some good potential scorers in Wiggins and LaVine, so I would pick the defender.

Camden0916 wrote:Ehh.

You realize that Okafor actually goes against what "style" or "identity" we currently have been building, right? Drafting Okafor means we're an inside out, post-up and kick to shooters type offense. Problem is... we don't have shooters. We also could have five players who excel in high-paced action (Rubio, Wiggins, LaVine, Muhammad, Bjelica). Guess which one of the two (Okafor/Towns) is better in transition. It's Towns. He actually had the highest PPP in transition opportunities out of any big in the draft. Okafor just doesn't move well in the open court consistently. Not to mention Okafor doesn't look to be the better P&R big of the two, as a roller and as the "pop out" man. Towns at least gives you the threat of shooting, which should bring a big out of the paint to open up driving lanes for Rubio/Wiggins/LaVine and dip-ins/cuts for Muhammad. For a lot of reasons, Towns makes so much more sense for us on offense AND defense.

Okafor's the better 1v1 player of the two. I don't think anyone's debating that. It's just that he's not the better overall player when compared to Towns. Karl has more check marks than Jahlil. Hopefully Flip agrees.

(Would be thrilled to come away with either, but if we're looking to choose the best between the two, there's what I believe.)

I actually think Okafor fits better right now in Flip's system. You can't be a high pace team if you get outscored behind the arc by as much as we do. You have to slow the game down and grind out possessions which Okafor helps accomplish much better and more efficiently. When you play high pace and shoot 2's you get blown out like we saw this year many times. More possessions for both teams means the other team shoots more 3's and makes more 3's while Flip is still running his same offense that gets less 3's.

The Grizzlies are good because they grind out games and limit possessions so their interior efficiency wins out over the volume 3 point shooting teams who don't get as many looks. Towns is a great defensive fit for us, but he can't stop 3's and the other teams are just going to keep chucking with the extra possessions they get from a high pace game widening the 3 point gap. Towns only solves part of the equation, but he also makes part of it worse. Towns = more possessions, better interior defense and a worse 3 point gap. Okafor = less possessions, can't do any worse in interior defense than what we had but still is worse than Towns and less of a 3 point gap.

I also don't think Ricky likes playing in transition because he knows he's not a good finisher. I don't think he pushes the ball very much and seems more intent to setup the offense than push the pace to take advantage of the defense. That's just an observation though.

I'm sure it's not the Wolves desire to remain a poor 3 point shooting team. And I'm equally sure that will be addressed this summer. The other part of the equation is that we can, and should defend the 3 a lot better than we did last year.

The truth is if we don't shorten up the disparity on three pointers it really doesn't matter who our bigs are. We aren't going to win games whether we have Okafor or Towns.

Good read.

http://www.canishoopus.com/2015/5/11/8580951/early-draft-metrics-and-thoughts

khans2k5 wrote:

Camden0916 wrote:Ehh.

You realize that Okafor actually goes against what "style" or "identity" we currently have been building, right? Drafting Okafor means we're an inside out, post-up and kick to shooters type offense. Problem is... we don't have shooters. We also could have five players who excel in high-paced action (Rubio, Wiggins, LaVine, Muhammad, Bjelica). Guess which one of the two (Okafor/Towns) is better in transition. It's Towns. He actually had the highest PPP in transition opportunities out of any big in the draft. Okafor just doesn't move well in the open court consistently. Not to mention Okafor doesn't look to be the better P&R big of the two, as a roller and as the "pop out" man. Towns at least gives you the threat of shooting, which should bring a big out of the paint to open up driving lanes for Rubio/Wiggins/LaVine and dip-ins/cuts for Muhammad. For a lot of reasons, Towns makes so much more sense for us on offense AND defense.

Okafor's the better 1v1 player of the two. I don't think anyone's debating that. It's just that he's not the better overall player when compared to Towns. Karl has more check marks than Jahlil. Hopefully Flip agrees.

(Would be thrilled to come away with either, but if we're looking to choose the best between the two, there's what I believe.)

I actually think Okafor fits better right now in Flip's system. You can't be a high pace team if you get outscored behind the arc by as much as we do. You have to slow the game down and grind out possessions which Okafor helps accomplish much better and more efficiently. When you play high pace and shoot 2's you get blown out like we saw this year many times. More possessions for both teams means the other team shoots more 3's and makes more 3's while Flip is still running his same offense that gets less 3's.

The Grizzlies are good because they grind out games and limit possessions so their interior efficiency wins out over the volume 3 point shooting teams who don't get as many looks. Towns is a great defensive fit for us, but he can't stop 3's and the other teams are just going to keep chucking with the extra possessions they get from a high pace game widening the 3 point gap. Towns only solves part of the equation, but he also makes part of it worse. Towns = more possessions, better interior defense and a worse 3 point gap. Okafor = less possessions, can't do any worse in interior defense than what we had but still is worse than Towns and less of a 3 point gap.

I also don't think Ricky likes playing in transition because he knows he's not a good finisher. I don't think he pushes the ball very much and seems more intent to setup the offense than push the pace to take advantage of the defense. That's just an observation though.

Very articulate post. I see very much the same thing. I would also add that Flip preaches good, open shots. We just couldn't get those without any interior threat from injured Pek or Thad last year. There was no spacing around the 3 pt line. I think our threes will go up if we get Okafor or towns because either of them give us better interior options. I think this effect would be even great though with Okafor because of his passing and greater ability to finish down low.

I am thinking the following order:

1. Towns
2. Russell
3. Okafor
4. Mudiay