Minnesota Sports Forum

bleedspeed177 wrote:Good read.

http://www.canishoopus.com/2015/5/11/8580951/early-draft-metrics-and-thoughts

Terrific article, bleed...thx for posting.

This solidifies my belief that Towns is far and away the best choice in this draft at #1, and I'm now convinced the Wolves need to go with Russell at 2. After that it gets tougher for me, but I probably go Okafor and Winslow at 3 and 4.

I have a couple issues with the data presented for the point (and combo) guards. First, Irving's numbers are overstated, since he played most of his games against soft non-conference opponents before getting hurt. Second, I don't know how they calculate defensive win shares. How can VO have such a low number...very close to Irving. And while Russell looked very good on defense against the Gophers, I don't know that he is considered a Marcus Smart-like defender. If he is really that good a defender, he's a very nice consolation prize if we don't get Towns.

Awesome article bleed. So basically, what I read was that the author confirmed everything I've been saying about who we should target in this draft :)

I really don't understand why Okafor is falling out of the top 2. He's 19 and has immense talent and guys like this writer aren't leaving room for much improvement and are treating him more of an as is prospect and not a 19 year old. You're not going to find a 19 year old PnR defensive savant. As much as people like Towns he's also going to struggle in PnR because of his foul rate combined with how many shots he leaves his feet to challenge. NBA guards will pick up a lot of cheapies on him. I think Okafor is a unique talent to today's game as there just aren't many post savants in the league anymore. The Jefferson comparisons are there but on paper Okafor is a couple inches taller and he's lanky in his own right. Just walling up might be enough to challenge shots with his size and length. I get it if people like Towns better, but there is no way I put anyone else ahead of Okafor. Our defense is ok with Pek and Okafor is taller and much longer to protect the rim better.

Where was all the over analysis last year with Parker's defensive ability or lack thereof? He was still a consensus 2 behind Wiggins and some had him at 1 because he is a special offensive talent like Okafor. Meanwhile Russell doesn't have a position because he's too slow to guard PG's and get put in the NBA PnR gauntlet and he's too small to guard the Harden's and Thompson's of the league. He'll be just as much of a defensive liability if not more because at least Okafor can guard C's.

khans2k5 wrote:I really don't understand why Okafor is falling out of the top 2. He's 19 and has immense talent and guys like this writer aren't leaving room for much improvement and are treating him more of an as is prospect and not a 19 year old. You're not going to find a 19 year old PnR defensive savant. As much as people like Towns he's also going to struggle in PnR because of his foul rate combined with how many shots he leaves his feet to challenge. NBA guards will pick up a lot of cheapies on him. I think Okafor is a unique talent to today's game as there just aren't many post savants in the league anymore. The Jefferson comparisons are there but on paper Okafor is a couple inches taller and he's lanky in his own right. Just walling up might be enough to challenge shots with his size and length. I get it if people like Towns better, but there is no way I put anyone else ahead of Okafor. Our defense is ok with Pek and Okafor is taller and much longer to protect the rim better.

Where was all the over analysis last year with Parker's defensive ability or lack thereof? He was still a consensus 2 behind Wiggins and some had him at 1 because he is a special offensive talent like Okafor. Meanwhile Russell doesn't have a position because he's too slow to guard PG's and get put in the NBA PnR gauntlet and he's too small to guard the Harden's and Thompson's of the league. He'll be just as much of a defensive liability if not more because at least Okafor can guard C's.

Nothing NBA scouts worse than a sure thing. Happens every year. It seems to be getting worse as time goes on too.

I still have Okafor as my No. 2, but I think he's a sure thing ONLY as a low post scorer. He's not a great rebounder despite his good profile. He's somewhat limited as a scorer by his inability to make free throws. No perimeter shot so you have to wonder if he's a one-trick pony. And he's a liability on defense.

You cannot call him a sure thing while he has so many questions to his game. Is he a safe pick? Probably, but he's not the runaway best player in this class like you (@doper) make him out to be. My opinion.

longstrangetrip wrote:
I have a couple issues with the data presented for the point (and combo) guards. First, Irving's numbers are overstated, since he played most of his games against soft non-conference opponents before getting hurt. Second, I don't know how they calculate defensive win shares. How can VO have such a low number...very close to Irving. And while Russell looked very good on defense against the Gophers, I don't know that he is considered a Marcus Smart-like defender. If he is really that good a defender, he's a very nice consolation prize if we don't get Towns.

Long, win shares is stat that is purely based on classic defensive stats (defensive rebounds, blocks and steals) and team total amount of wins. Oladipo's Indiana team was pretty terrible in his freshman year. They had only record 12-20 and since Dipo played only 18 minutes per game, his total amount of defensive win shares couldn't be that good even if his per minute stats would have been awesome. Also Oladipo's per minute defensive stats increased quite much during his college time and as a junior his averages were already much better. He had 2.7 defensive win shares that year.

Mikkeman wrote:

longstrangetrip wrote:
I have a couple issues with the data presented for the point (and combo) guards. First, Irving's numbers are overstated, since he played most of his games against soft non-conference opponents before getting hurt. Second, I don't know how they calculate defensive win shares. How can VO have such a low number...very close to Irving. And while Russell looked very good on defense against the Gophers, I don't know that he is considered a Marcus Smart-like defender. If he is really that good a defender, he's a very nice consolation prize if we don't get Towns.

Long, win shares is stat that is purely based on classic defensive stats (defensive rebounds, blocks and steals) and team total amount of wins. Oladipo's Indiana team was pretty terrible in his freshman year. They had only record 12-20 and since Dipo played only 18 minutes per game, his total amount of defensive win shares couldn't be that good even if his per minute stats would have been awesome. Also Oladipo's per minute defensive stats increased quite much during his college time and as a junior his averages were already much better. He had 2.7 defensive win shares that year.

Thanks Mikkeman. It looks like both Irving's and VO's data is tainted. But I also conclude that Russell may be a better defender than we might be giving him credit for.

longstrangetrip wrote:
Thanks Mikkeman. It looks like both Irving's and VO's data is tainted. But I also conclude that Russell may be a better defender than we might be giving him credit for.

It seems that my understanding was little bit off. Had to check that later since it was bothering me. Win shares are based on team individual Ortg and Drtg and those numbers are based on team average Ortg and Drtg and individual offensive and defensive stats. So number of wins for team doesn't directly affect individual win shares but of course better teams have better Ortg and Drtg numbers.

So I think Russell's good defensive win share numbers tell me mainly that he played a lot of minutes and games in team that was defensively good and was very good in defensive rebounding especially for guard.

I really like Russell and willbe happy with either Russell or Towns. I think Russell has more upside as a star and Towns seems like more of a solid pick. I wonder if Towns has some of the same issues with asserting himself that Wiggins had.

Mikkeman wrote:

longstrangetrip wrote:
Thanks Mikkeman. It looks like both Irving's and VO's data is tainted. But I also conclude that Russell may be a better defender than we might be giving him credit for.

It seems that my understanding was little bit off. Had to check that later since it was bothering me. Win shares are based on team individual Ortg and Drtg and those numbers are based on team average Ortg and Drtg and individual offensive and defensive stats. So number of wins for team doesn't directly affect individual win shares but of course better teams have better Ortg and Drtg numbers.

So I think Russell's good defensive win share numbers tell me mainly that he played a lot of minutes and games in team that was defensively good and was very good in defensive rebounding especially for guard.

Bingo. Individual Defensive Rating and Defensive Win Shares are indicators of actual individual defensive capability only to the degree that the individual contributes to overall team defense and the individual box score stats like steals, blocks, and defensive rebounding. It's obfuscated by the other four guys on the court (not to mention the type of pace and schemes the coach deploys), while also not accounting for non-box score stuff like PnR defense, good contests, charges drawn, etc.. It's very hard to use DWS or Drtg as a definitive stat on a person's defense.

Gorgui Dieng is the poster child of someone that looks good defensively in the box score, but using the more advanced NBA metrics, in reality, is very below average.