Draft prospects - Who do we want?

[Monster]

Does anyone have stats on Rubio's catch and shoot 3 point shots? Also Rubio for a guy that's sort of terrible offensively Rubio draws a healthy amount of fouls and is a good FT% I think Rubio isn't a hapless offensive guy for those reasons. The key issue is if he can stay healthy. Let's see that first and then worry about what issues he has after that. Hopefully he has some decent players to play with this year so we can have a good sense of what we have with him after this year.

In Ricky's 82 game season he had a 34.5 FG%, a 35.1% 3pt percentage and a 48.9 eFG% off catch and shoot opportunities according to NBAdotcom. He was at 31.9 FG%, 24.2% 3pt and a 37.7 eFG% this year on catch and shoot.

Surprisingly Ricky's pull up shooting improved (.39 FG% vs .288 last year and .408 eFG% vs .298) this year but his catch and shoot efficiency dropped to below his pull up shooting numbers. Maybe that is just because of small sample size.

I remember that Cam wrote that Ricky's mid range shooting is not anymore problem but it is more just his ability to finish at rim. I went to check that from basketball-reference and it seems that this statement might be true.

Ricky's FG% in jump shots this year was .361. In previous years it had been: .316, .319 and .301. It seems that especially his 2-point jump shooting was improved since his FG% in those was .403. That is already better shooting that many other point guards had. For example Lillard had FG% .35 his 2-point jump shots, Westbrook had .364, Lawson .38, Lowry .367, Rose .398, Knight .342, Jennings .352 and Deron Williams .371.

Maybe the work that he did with Penberthy did really help after all. I just hope that he could keep that accuracy in 2-point jump shots and improve his 3-point shooting and finishing at rim. Even with modest improvement in finishing at rim and three point shooting would probably improve his scoring efficiency enough that he wouldn't need to be considered as liability. Actually if he could keep his this years 2-point jump shooting accuracy and return to previous years level in 3-point shooting and finishing at rim, his FG% would around .40, eFG% .44 and TS% .49.

Thanks for these numbers. 22 games last year isn't much of a sample to draw from but it's all we have.

22 games is all u have to make your argument . He's got hundreds of games that prove ur argument incorrect. He was drafted in 09 and I'm still reading that we should give him till at least the 16-17 season to figure his shot out? How crazy is that? He gets 7 years to figure his shot out but Shabazz is labeled one trick after 2 years and a whole lot of improvemnt. Ricky isn't all that much better since his rookie year.

You clearly missed my point and also must not know I am higher on Bazz than anyone here.

Edit: After reading the following posts and you are simply playing the other side that's cool just please read my posts with more care I think you will find I am actually pretty realistic when it comes to Rubio good and bad.

[MikkeMan]

Yeah, really interesting numbers, q. I was a skeptic about the Penberthy effect, but it did seem that Ricky's jump shot looked better late last season. And it looks like the numbers back it up. The finishing at the rim continues to be an issue though, and I'm not as optimistic that Ricky is going to improve much in this area. If only he could develop a nice little floater like so many PG's have, it could dramatically improve his efficiency.

Long, I'm also not expecting that Ricky's finishing at rim would suddenly improve dramatically but if it would even return to his normal level and he would be able to keep his jump shooting efficiency same than last year, he would probably have best year in terms of shooting efficiency. Rubios layup FG% was last year horrific .33 when it had been .484, .445 and .489 in previous seasons. What makes things even worse is that he was able to get much less shot attempts at the rim last year compared to previous years. So even if he would have been as efficient finisher at the rim than previous years, his shooting % would not still have been that good since he took only .18 of his attempts at rim after having .40 of his attempts at the rim in previous year.

Maybe his improved jump shot was part of the reason for that and he took more easily pull up jumpers instead of going to rim. But since the difference was so dramatic and since he was not the only Wolves player that was having problems in getting attempts and finishing at the rim, I will maybe put once again some blame to Flip's offense. Both Pekovic and Thad had career low share of attempts at rim and had also career low FG% at rim. Pek had .463 of his FG attempts at rim after averaging .56 in previous two years. His FG% at rim was .546 after averaging .645 in previous two years. Young had pretty similar difference in his shooting profile and efficiency at rim. He had .365 of his FG attempts at rim in Minnesota after averaging .415 in previous two years. His FG% at rim was .598 after averaging .658 in previous two years. You could just think that this was a result of both Pek and Young getting worse in last couple of years but Young recovered nicely when he was traded to Brooklyn. He had there .443 of his of his FG attempts at rim and his FG% at rim was .676.

Maybe Flip's offense makes it more difficult for players to get shot attempts at rim and especially more difficult to finish them at rim since there is not enough three point shooting to give good enough spacing.

If Rubio would have same shooting profile as 13-14 season with his average lay-up and 3P shooting accuracy and last years 2P jump shooting accuracy, his shooting ercentages would be already pretty mediocre FG% .42, eFG% .45 and TS% .51.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

We can always count on you to provide some interesting data, mikkeman! I was aware that Pek had a terrible year finishing at the rim, but I wasn't aware that Ricky's success had fallen off so much too.

I'm going to go in a different direction than laying this on Flip's offense. While it may be responsible for the reduced number of attempts, there has to be another reason for the poor make percentages. I blame it on Ricky and Pek's injuries. We know now that both were laying in great pain most of the year, and that had to have an impact on their finishing. Scoring inside requires focus and strength, and playing in pain has to negatively impact both.

The optimistic take is that Ricky's ankle has healed and Pek's surgery has eliminated his pain, and that both will at least return to their historical finishing percentages. That would have an enormous positive impact on our offensive efficiency.

[Porckchop]

We can always count on you to provide some interesting data, mikkeman! I was aware that Pek had a terrible year finishing at the rim, but I wasn't aware that Ricky's success had fallen off so much too.

I'm going to go in a different direction than laying this on Flip's offense. While it may be responsible for the reduced number of attempts, there has to be another reason for the poor make percentages. I blame it on Ricky and Pek's injuries. We know now that both were laying in great pain most of the year, and that had to have an impact on their finishing. Scoring inside requires focus and strength, and playing in pain has to negatively impact both.

The optimistic take is that Ricky's ankle has healed and Pek's surgery has eliminated his pain, and that both will at least return to their historical finishing percentages. That would have an enormous positive impact on our offensive efficiency.

For the 3rd year running the optimistic take is that those two can remain healthy! Here's to a fourth!!

[Volans19]

[youtube]https://youtu.be/DAuALzPCw24[/youtube]

[TRKO [enjin:12664595]]

We need to trade back into the first and draft this guy:
http://youtu.be/Kt3ZN4Q0HwE

[Camden [enjin:6601484]]

We need to trade back into the first and draft this guy:
http://youtu.be/Kt3ZN4Q0HwE

Good idea.

[Coolbreeze44]

We need to trade back into the first and draft this guy:
http://youtu.be/Kt3ZN4Q0HwE

As a Notre Dame fanatic, I wouldn't be hating this.

[Monster]

We need to trade back into the first and draft this guy:
http://youtu.be/Kt3ZN4Q0HwE

As a Notre Dame fanatic, I wouldn't be hating this.

IDK he was hitting rim on those shots that's terrible for a workout video. Lol

Of the guys I have seen, the PG in that range I like like the most is Grant. I would be pretty happy if we got him.

[longstrangetrip [enjin:6600564]]

Grant does appear to be a terrific shooter, but I still subscribe to Q's theory that we need a distributor/defender to back up Rubio, and Grant is not a good defender. I'm not inclined to use assets to move up to pick a PG who is so skinny (6-5, 198) and unathletic, and has little upside as a 22 year old senior. I'm not keen on pairing a poor defender with Shabazz and Martin. I would prefer to hope that Deion Wright falls to us at 31. Sure, he's also skinny and a senior, but he is an excellent passer and defender and might not cost us anything to move up.